Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
MikeKeymasterHi Suds
Nice to know someone was following the idea…lol. Dozens of people hit on the thread but it is a bit complicated and can be a tricky read. I may well follow up on the idea as the exchanges fascinate me (it’s all that mathematics…lol) maybe we could use one of the database’s and try the idea out on the Rugby, Football or Basketball. ? I will drop you a line to see what we can come up with. By using sports with just two teams it should be easier to get your head around it. 🙂MikeKeymasterHi
Apologies yesterday I was engrossed in my new thread Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 and should have spotted the huge drift on Mywayorthehighway who opened at 25-1 and went out to 100-1 and at one time touched 150-1. There must have been something amiss there. 🙁 Boss of the bus just didn’t last the trip in the mud and we dropped 4 points. 🙁
We have nothing until Sunday now, but obviously with the Grand National coming up on Saturday I am sure you are all receiving advice from everywhere so do not any from me. 🙂 However we had put up Mr Incredible at 40-1 some time ago and are sticking with him. However if your desperate for an option I would not put anyone off Panda Boy 16-1 Skybet or at a bigger price Galia Des Liteaux at 40-1 again with Skybet.
Best of luck to anyone having a punt you will need it. We personally just need Mr Incredible to not sulk at the start (he has been known to refuse to race) not bite of any of the other runners the jockey (or anyone else) and we might just get lucky….lol.MikeKeymasterHi
Here is the final result, prices and positions of the first Ridiculous Idea of 2024 🙂
I had plenty of time to lay Doctor Nightingale for a small profit as his price did shortened up (as predicted last night) and not only did he shorten up in price but he also went on to win. 🙂 It was a tight finish with Jeaniemacaroney finishing second and Lady Of The Locke finishing third our fourth horse in the betting finished sixth and our fifth horse in the betting finished fourth. At the tail end of the market we had three horses we thought were no hopers and two of those Her Self and Kp’s Ladyofknock duly finished last and second to last.
Jeanniemacaroney 2-1 5-6 (10-11) Finished 2nd @ 8-11 🙂
Doctor Nightingale 3-1 7-1 (7-1) Won @ 7-2 🙂
Lady Of The Locke 9-2 11-4 (9-4) Finished 3rd @ 10-3 🙂
Queenofthelodge 9-1 50-1 (50-1) finished 6th @ 125-1 🙂
Duhallow Jury 10-1 33-1 (16-1) Finished 4th @ 80-1 🙂
Drum Roll 12-1 33-1 (40-1) Finished 8th @ 33-1 ?
Moonlight Mist 14-1 16-1 (16-1) Non Runner
Avandra 16-1 33-1 (66-1) Finished 10th @ 100-1 ?
Dinner At Freddys 20-1 66-1 (66-1) Finished 12th @ 125-1 🙁
Give Me A Smile 20-1 16-1 (16-1) Finished 5th @ 16-1 ?
Duchamps Art 33-1 100-1 (40-1) Finished 9th @ 125-1 ?
Her Self 100-1 16-1 (16-1 Finished 11th @ 40-1 🙂
Keyser Smokesy 100-1 33-1 (33-1) Finished 7th @ 150-1 ?
Kp’s Ladyofknock 100-1 33-1 (25-1) Finished last @ 125-1 🙂
As you can see I am pretty chuffed with the whole thing :)… except that for me if you know you are going to make a small profit before the race starts regardless of the result there is no point or fun in watching it. 🙁
Now if you have a big budget are doing it professionally and have the knowledge then great. If like myself you bet for fun and half the fun of it is looking forward to the watching the race and awaiting the outcome then it might not be for you.
In summary I loved the idea of trying to beat the book and I am sure I will be looking for a different way to try the idea out. But for now I will retire the idea gracefully until I can figure of way of using the exchange to our advantage but with a decent but manageable risk factor to make it interesting. Here’s the thing, on the site we put up Mr incredible @ 40-1 for the Grand National a few weeks ago and he is now priced up at 12-1 so you if you had done that bet, you could now double your money by cashing out the question is would you. ??MikeKeymasterHi
Having “Laid” Lady Of The Locke to lose last night at 9-4 we have now “Backed” her to win at 5-1. We will use a 10 point stake as our example instead of our usual 1 point to avoid too many fractions.
Now we had looked to back Lady Of The Locke at 9-4 to lose which means we had looked to back 22.50 to win 10 (we are now effectively the bookmaker). If she wins we lose our 22.50 points if she loses we win 10 points.
Then when the price (as we predicted/hoped/lost sleep over) did drift out this morning to 5-1 we then backed her to win for 6 points.
This means that if Lady Of The Locke wins we win 30 points from our win bet but lose the 22.50 points from our lay bet last night which gives us 7.5 point profit. If however Lady Of The Locke loses we lose our 6 point stake from the win bet placed this morning points but gain the 10 points from our lay bet last night which gives us a 4 point profit.
Effectively this means we cannot lose either way… Simples. 🙂
Hmmm… Maybe not the exchange markets are where you are hoping that someone has the opposite view to you and is offering the price you want. In actual fact although priced at 9-4 to win last night the best we could get on the lay markets (to lose) was 3-1 which means we would have to have placed 30 points to win 10. This means our bet to win this morning had to be 7 points to cover our possible losses from last night. Which in real terms still means we make 5 points if Lady Of The Locke wins and 3 points if she loses. Also you wilL get a 5% deduction on your winning bet as betfair takes a commison for dealing with the bets placed (only fair in the circumstances). Add on any deductions they may or may not add for any non runners and you have done a lot of work laid out 41 points to maybe win 3. But as Ridiculous ideas go this one has so far come out as a positive.
Effectively we got lucky or were very clever Lady Of The Locke drifted right out and since we have placed our bet MoonLight Mist has become a non runner so Lady Of The Locke has now gone back into 11-4.
There is ample opportunity for us to balance our bet on Doctor Nightingale so lets just now wait again for the race the starting prices and finishing positions to see the final result. ??MikeKeymasterHi Suds
We have all been there myself for sure and I am sure Joe will back me up you can’t win them all. You only dropped a few points on the day and are still well in profit on the thread. The fact that you are in profit on the thread at all is a feat in itself not many people manage that. It’s alaways daunting when you post as it is like sticking your head above the trenches and taking a risk of getting it shot off.
All the best with the next batch. 🙂MikeKeymasterHi
The wait is over and here are the prices using bet365 and (betfair) as comparisons.
Jeanniemacaroney 2-1 5-6 (10-11)
Doctor Nightingale 3-1 7-1 (7-1)
Lady Of The Locke 9-2 11-4 (9-4)
Queenofthelodge 9-1 50-1 (50-1)
Duhallow Jury 10-1 33-1 (16-1)
Drum Roll 12-1 33-1 (40-1)
Moonlight Mist 14-1 16-1 (16-1)
Avandra 16-1 33-1 (66-1)
Dinner At Freddys 20-1 66-1 (66-1)
Give Me A Smile 20-1 16-1 (16-1)
Duchamps Art 33-1 100-1 (40-1)
Her Self 100-1 16-1 (16-1
Keyser Smokesy 100-1 33-1 (33-1)
Kp’s Ladyofknock 100-1 33-1 (25-1)
This could have been a lot worse we got the right favourite and the correct three at the head of the market which are distinctly separate from the rest of the field pricewise. Give Me A Smile, Moonlight Mist and Duhallow Jury were there or thereabouts depending on who you bet with and it will be interesting to see an updated market in the morning. We now go to part two of the Baldrick and look to attempt a trade in the race.
But as for tonight we would be expecting Drum Roll to shorten up in the morning from tonight’s 40-1 and Kp’s Ladyofknock to lengthen from tonight’s 25-1. These were betfair prices which we would like to offer or take on the exchanges. The real problem with these will be getting some interest on a race likely to be dominated by the front three in the market. Therefore we will try the following where again we will use the betfair prices.
Lady Of the Locke we will lay at 9-4 and Doctor Nightingale we will back to win at 7-1.
Now once again we wait, this time on the exchange markets and hope we have got this right. 🙂MikeKeymasterHi
We finally have a NH meeting in Ireland that is going to go ahead and it is at Limerick tomorrow.
We are going to take a punt at two horse having there first handicap runs and they are as follows.
2.35 Mywayorthehighway @ 25-1 for 4 places
4.55 Bossofthebus @ 25-1 for 5 places
We are obviously going in with the each way singles for the site but an each way double is tempting. 🙂MikeKeymasterHi
Apologies for the late update but as we are coming to the end of the competition I thought I would give a quick heads up to those who have a few runners going on this the last weekend.
Mgame has the best current line and has all the highlighted horses declared at Aintree
Line 4 Mgame Total points 2023/24 +542.53
Stage Star +22.20
Galopin Des Champs +158.11
Bravemansgame +25.70
Gerri Colombe +27.12
Monbeg Genius +2.90
Constitution Hill +27.20 (injured)
State Man +156.30
Maries Rock +23.60
JPR One +29.60
Brighterdaysahead +15.50
Gaelic Warrior +54.30
I will update the final results after the weekends racing where hopefully Mgame’s line can break the 600 point mark. 🙂 The current best line to date was Rob’s last year with +601.31 which was good but we have beaten our best points total every year to date and it would be nice to see it happen again. 🙂
Here is a list of declared runners for the weekend best of luck to all who took part and many thanks for joining in.
Il Etait Temps
Gerri Colombe
Shiskin
Corbetts Cross
Bravemansgame
Ahoy Senor
Teahupoo
Botox Has
Bob Olinger
Impaire Et Passe
Luccia
Maries Rock
Nemean Lion
Brighterdaysahead
Jonbon
Protektorat
JPR One
Last but not least our Grand National tip Mr Incredible who was put up at 40-1 a few weeks back on the Winning Post Tips page looks like he will run and if he doesn’t bite anyone and plays nicely, is still a not too shoddy 14-1 in places. 🙂MikeKeymasterHi
The price on Duhallow Jury had been bugging me all night so I checked my excel sheet and found a silly error which unfortunately does not effect just Duhallow Jury but also all the other runners beginning with the letter D.
I have corrected the error and here is the revised set of tissue odds.
Jeanniemacaroney 2-1
Doctor Nightingale 3-1
Lady Of The Locke 9-2
Queenofthelodge 9-1
Duhallow Jury 10-1
Drum Roll 12-1
Moonlight Mist 14-1
Avandra 16-1
Dinner At Freddys 20-1
Give Me A Smile 20-1
Duchamps Art 33-1
Her Self 100-1
Keyser Smokesy 100-1
Kp’s Ladyofknock 100-1
This has more or less doubled the odds on all the runners starting with the letter D and means we have had to adjust the market slightly on the other runners but I am confident everything else is ok. We now just have wait another 12 hours or so until the old enemy (the bookies) print there first set of odds.MikeKeymasterHi Joe
Double up again ?.. I do believe your beginning to enjoy this aren’t you 🙂MikeKeymasterHi
With all the bad weather and abandoned meetings it looks as though we have nothing until Thursday at the earliest this week, but it will give us a chance to look further at trying out a Baldrick on the betfair exchanges.
The Aintree Grand National meeting comes up this weekend and for those who took the hint last month on this thread Winning Post Tips where we suggested backing Mr Incredible at 40-1 NRNB it looks like he will run. He is now trading at between 12-1 and 14-1 and once the final declarations are made I think he will shorten up even further.MikeKeymasterHi
We had our first six fold and 20x trebles in for 2024 a few weeks back and we only missed out by a couple of corners this week which is frustrating but the trebles brought us in a tidy profit so we are on a roll here. 🙂
Ospreys -1 to beat Sale Sharks @ 10-11 (Rugby) Won
DAL Mavericks -1.5 to beat GS Warriors @ 10-11 (Basketball) Won
Kempton(AW)4.25 Notable Speech @ 8-11 (Horse Racing) Won
Akshay Bhatia to win the Valero Texas Open @ 7-5 (Golf) Won
Sutton v Stockport Over 0 goals for Sutton + over 3 corners Sutton + over 3 corners Stockport @ 9-4 (Football)
Tranmere v Walsall Over 0 goals Tranmere + Over 5 corners Tranmere + Over 3 corners Walsall @ 5-2 (Football) Won
Lets hope we can work some more magic this weekend 🙂MikeKeymasterHi
Absolutey gutted as apart from the Accrington v Crewe game we missed out by just a goal for Morecambe and the corners bet for Stockport which means we had 15 of the 19 predictions come in but still lost the bet. 🙁
But such is life and although we lost 19 points we still have enough left in the kitty for another bash. The bet would have to 20 points this time but we have +23.61 left so it look like sqeeky bum time as we go all in next weekend.MikeKeymasterHi Sudsie
Sorry, forgot to mention the lottery numbers are the same as last week 4,7,16,23,31 and 50 and remember as with Suds (Clarence) you have to be in it to win it. So if anyone else wants to join in all you have do is to be an active member on the site and post a tip plus a lucky number by Friday night 9pm which can be used that weekend.
We got off to a good start last night when the Mavericks won in the Basketball so its 1 down 5 to go. 🙂 -
AuthorPosts