[Mike]

Hi
The painful weekend has started and we had our first whitewash for a long time. 🙁 However it is a new idea and the bare results are not as bad as they first look. We Wanted Grey Fable for 6 places he came 8th we wanted Yarraman Makarrata for 8 places he came 9th and Wayside Lady who we also wanted for 8 places was in third place coming off the final bend before falling two out and would surely have come in had she not fallen.
To compound a bad day Harry’s Legacy went wrong early doors and pulled up after jumping only two fences so we will never know how he would have done.
With this in mind we will continue the idea and hope that either Reina Del Mar 14-1 or Huscari 66-1 can save our bacon tomorrow and keep the experiment alive. They are both unraced over hurdles but both show up quite well on our new speed rating conversion table. We will update the thread tomorrow as usual.

[Mike]

Hi
The painful weekend is looking more likely by the hour but these things do happen when you try new ideas out. Here are the best prices we could obtain bearing in mind there are limited markets available when you have such a short priced favourite.
Grey Fable @ 13-1 for 6 places
Yarraman Makarrata @ 12-1 for 8 places
Wayside Lady @ 14-1 for 8 places
This looks like a one horse race and Romeo Coolio is being backed off the boards with the money not just going on the horse to win but by how many lengths. Unfortunately although obviously the class horse in the race I could not bring myself to contemplate backing a horse yet to jump an obstacle in public at such short odds. The same applies to Harry’s Legacy but with 10-1 still on offer this morning an each way bet looks the way to go here. As we are always looking for options and whilst we were looking through the markets we noticed this little gem on
Betfair.
Grey Fable 16-1 E/W 3 places Betting without Romeo Coolio 6-1 E/W 3 places
Grey Fable 16-1 E/W 3 places Betting without Harrys Legacy 22-1 E/W 3 places
Is it me having a senior moment or am I dreaming….lol.
This applies through the card for some ridiculous prices and looks to good to be true especially if for any reason Romeo Coolio does come unstuck.

[Mike]

Hi
We had three from six last weekend which means we had a nice treble up and another win. However with no Golf or Rugby bets on offer this weekend and only myself and Sudsie doing the competition at present we have decided to give it a miss.
We will be back next week but will in the meantime be concentrating on our speed ratings and updating the databases which are proving to both problematic but profitable.

[Mike]

Hi
Well we had to push our luck and it will be an interesting race tomorrow. Obviously we think Romeo Coolio is too short in the market at 1-4 and will be looking for Harry’s Legacy to be supported in from the current 9-1 (bet365). Cutthewire is where he should be but Grey Fable @ 66-1, Yarraman Makarrata @ 100-1 and Wayside Lady @ 200-1 we believe are all overpriced and could all be backed in the extra markets.
Now this is the first time we have tried this new set of calculations on any depth and we will also be looking at the 1.40 at Cork on Sunday which is a really tricky race but in for a penny in for a pound.
Reina Del Mar
Meet My Loreley
Groovykindoflove
———-
Eve’s Hope
Midnight Eagle
Huscari
Kyle Valley
Vroomvroomboo
Blue Mosque
Aruntothequeen
We will update our wagers on tomorrows race in the morning (if not late tonight) as we will be playing these on the Betfair Exchange. Then it is just a case of awaiting Sundays race to be priced up before we go in again. Does anyone else think this is going to be an expensive weekend.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Nice to see the confidence flowing 🙂 I will start posting mine soon just waiting to see if anyone else joins in as I do like to make sure all the horses listed are used at least once. For anyone else thinking of joining in remember I do not place the entries until a few days before the competition starts so there will be time to alter your lines.

[Mike]

Hi
As we have been doing reasonably well of late we are going to add in another little calculation regarding the conversion of Flat, PTP and NHF times to Hurdle times. The reasoning should be apparent as because we are targeting Hurdle races a fair proportion of these are Maiden races which include either unraced horses or horse switching from one code to another which makes it nearly impossible to concoct a set of Tissue Odds.
We are looking at the 1.00 at Down Royal on Saturday to have a dabble and in particular will be expecting Harry’s Legacy to be well supported. Although ridiculously early to be forming markets our early indications would suggest that the following horses will head the market.
Harry’s Legacy
Cutthewire
Yarraman Makarrata
Grey Fable
Garrick Painter
Romeo Coolio
Should this be the case the interesting runner from our point of view would be Wayside Lady who if appearing at the bottom of the market, we could well be interested in. Please bear in mind we do not actually know which horses will even run on the day let alone the odds and going etc but it could be a very interesting experiment on the day.

[Mike]

Hi
I believe Clarence (Suds) and Mgame (G) will probably pick there own TTF lines this year but our resident Vikings Choncc and Emyr will be picking a competition line for the “Valheim” team so here are the lists if anyone else is having a punt. We are having a change of tactic this year and targeting the monthly prizes but there is everything to play for and you might get lucky.
It is simple enough pick one from the first 8 lines and two from line 9 (this ensures they do not all run against each other all season).
Line 1. Three Card Brag/Quai De Bourbon/Jango Baie/The Jukebox Man
Line 2. Jeraboam Machin/Sounds Victorious/Jalon Doudaries/Regents Stroll
Line 3. Constitution Hill/Lossiemouth/State Man
Line 4. Teahupoo/Strong Leader/Brighterdaysahead
Line 5. Majborough/Flooring Porter/Ballyburn
Line 6. Firefox/Sir Gino
Line 7. Grey Dawning/Gaelic Warrior/Jonbon
Line 8. Ginnys Destiny/Djelo/Dysart Enos/Burdett Road
Line 9. Il Est Francais/Fastorslow/Galopin Des Champs/Corbetts Cross/Fact To File/Gerri Colombe
Any lines we enter will not be entered until November 10th so we can allow for late non runners in the competition due to injuries etc.

[Mike]

Hi G
I have had worse days…lol. The database appears to be paying its way now and whichever way you went today you would have come out either +10.8 or +19.2 points up. The data base has sparked a bit of interest lately and I will re-post the core calculations again for those that missed them first time around. As for the Ten To Follow I have already organized a pool of horses ready for the competition and will post them some time this week.

[Mike]

Hi
We have two options this morning as Betfair are offering Miss Maxfort at 9-1 betting without Kazakh D’Arhtel. Whereas Skybet are offering 16-1 for 4 places so it’s a case of you pay your money you takes your chances.

[Mike]

Hi Sudsie
Strangely the race was not shown on bet365 and for the life of me I could not tell you why he drifted out to 500-1 (unless he played up) but it made my day. Although our 75-1 bet missed out by one place for me it was the bet of the weekend as it went along way to justifying our work on the ratings. No one fancied Mackenstownsupreme yet our ratings put him up as worth a punt.
As for the day Stay Gold Placed the double went down and in a similar vein to Mackenstownsupreme our other long shot Ravelli also placed sixth one off the wager and was another unfancied runner at 50-1.
Therefore although we dropped a couple of points for the first time this week for me it was the best day of the week.
As for tomorrow we head back to Wexford and those looking for a bet could try another each way double on Kakakh D’Arthel 7-4 in the 1.10 and Dream Once More 6-1 (4 places) in the 2.10.
We will be looking to back Miss Maxfort 14-1 in the 1.10 but without Kazakh D’Arthel when the markets are published.

[Mike]

Hi
We have had a look at both races and with two stand out but short priced runners selected we have gone with a cheeky each way double on the following.
2.17 Marcus Furius @ 3-1
2.50 Keep Kool Co Co @ 5-2
We have a possible issue with our speed rating program as it highlighted Mackenstwonsupreme 150-1 last night at and has highlighted Ravelli in the 2.50 as another possible outsider punt for betting in the extra markets. This is very rare and probably a glich but at 22-1 betting without both Paul Collins and Keep Kool Co Co we just have to go in (just in case).
nb. As a footnote to the above post we have just checked the above calculations and can find no errors and the only thing that would have changed would be that with Arctic Lane now being a non runner in the 2.17 this would bring Stay Gold into the equation but at 11-1 for 5 places.

[Mike]

Hi
Both Seskin Flash and Beauforts Storm placed in the top 7 which made for another little profit for the thread and Seskin Flash by managing to come fifth behind both the favourite’s also would have been a reasonable shout.
We are starting to get over confident now and will be doing two races both at Wexford tomorrow namely the 2.17 and the 2.50 and will post our thoughts tomorrow. But interestingly for those who like to take a wild punt once in a while Mackenstownsupreme currently 150-1 is available at 75-1 (Betfair) betting without both Marcus Furius and Fleur In The Park.

[Mike]

Hi
As a footnote to this thread we would like to thank a new member “Hopefull” who has sent some useful information on course times and statistics to us. We will cherry pick the Irish Course Information and compare it to ours. For those members (I can see nine at present) who have yet to post do not be afraid…lol. The site is just for fun but hopefully full of useful information and tips. We do not use your real names unless authorized by yourselves and by posting you become an active member and can join in the competitions for free.

[Mike]

Hi
We are queuing to get on here today as we update the sheets…lol. As an update to yesterdays post we can go in this morning with Beauforts Storm @ 10-1 for 7 places and Seskin Flash at 9-1 for 7 places. For those who have the faith or like a riskier wager 14-1 and 12-1 are available betting without the favourite’s.
Please do remember that all of our speed ratings will really come into effect in January when when the age bandings change and we will then have ratings for over 90% of the 4, 5 and 6yo’s Irish Hurdlers that run in 2025.

[Mike]

Hi
Another reasonable shout as Final Flutter placed fourth and as Newtown Rambler won it we get paid out on the place part of the bet for another small profit. We put up our four which duly filled the first four positions home and we also indicted we fancied the favourite to get beaten which it did.
We are looking at the 3.03 at Galway and here we think its more or less a match between Sporting Glory and Addragoole we have taken Sporting Glory in our Beat The Lotto (£) competition.
As for our value wager/s we like the look of Beauforts Storm 33-1 and Seskin Flash 28-1 but once again we will be looking for 6 places or a bet without both of the aforementioned horses which should end up being clear favourites.

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