[Mike]

Hi
I think we can conclude from today’s results trying to convert Flat times to correspond to possible hurdle times is really not going to work as two of the Flat converts (who were well fancied) either didn’t jump well or ran everywhere but where the were supposed too. I fully appreciate one of the Flat runners Cashdale Lad won the race but he was the exception to the rule. The NHF tables we will adjust but were reasonably happy with and we will continue to try an adjusted conversion rate on that topic.
As for the thread we will go back to the hurdle ratings where we were having some success but we still have six weeks to go before all of our data base selections will hopefully come to fruition. In the meantime we will be finalizing our Ten To Follow thread and keeping tabs on the other competition threads.

[Mike]

Hi
Just a reminder that for the time being we are only dealing with the competition threads and you find this weekends Rugby selections on the Beat The Lotto (£) thread.

[Mike]

Hi
Well we probably have another Ballinboe Blaze on our hands in the 2.12 at Gowran Park as Light of Life 200-1 has shown some promise time wise. We would like to see this one finish in the top 9 but are not holding our breath…lol.
The 1.37 at Gowran Park is the main reason for posting here today as it will form the test ground for our new ratings table. We have added 5% to the flat times and 2% to the NHF times. Here are the results in the order for the first time hurdlers that we would like them to finish in.
Le Bugiste Flat
Status Green Flat
Cashdale Lad Flat
Pearl Of Australia Flat
Miss Corby NHF
Madam Jess NHF
Harrys Dream NHF
Dream Diamond NHF
This obviously shows a huge bias to the Flat horses having there first hurdle run but that is what our initial figures show us. Of the horse with experience of hurdling we would like to see the Kazakh D’Arthel and Kaikoura beat the other hurdlers home with Morell River hopefully to out run the 66-1 on offer.

[Mike]

Hi
Just for fun we are going to try the five Rugby internationals and a wild golf wager this weekend.

Wales -6 to beat Fiji @10-11
Australia -3 to beat England @ 11-10
Argentina +3 to beat Italy @ 10-11
Japan +35 to beat France @ 10-11
South Africa -8 to beat Scotland @ 1-1
Carson Young to win the World Wide Technology Championship @ 25-1
The lottery numbers will be the usual 4,7,16,23,31 and 50

[Mike]

Hi
As our Chris is not available this weekend we have deserted him for Carson Young in the World Wide Technology Championship. We have taken 55-1 for 10 places (active members bets) and although 4 shots off the lead just for fun we have also put this one the Beat The Lotto (£) thread @ 25-1 to win it outright.

[Mike]

Hi
In the 12.55 I was suspicious we had made a mistake with Ballinboe Blaze and he did not run that well but it was run at a ridiculously slow pace over the first mile and as we have checked our figures and can see no error it could just have been one of those days. Ad Caelum and Rut Daniels finished together in fourth and fifth place respectively which is about right. Unfortunately the three at the head of the market all ran to form which means we only got the one return which was Ad Caelum. We would have got both as returns had we backed without both favourites but as it turned out the 21-2 for five places on Rut Daniels would have been the best option.
We will try a couple of races Saturday as yesterday was another so so day on the new test sheets but this idea might be a step to far.

[Mike]

Hi
Thanks Em we now have the Valheim line which will be as follows

The Jukebox Man
Sounds Victorious
Constitution Hill
Strong leader
Ballyburn
Firefox
Jonbon
Djelo
Fact To File
Galopin Des Champs

[Mike]

Hi
Firstly a quick thank you to new member “Hopefull” who has sent some extra speed rating options over to us which will give us some food for thought. Whilst speed ratings are only one piece of the equation to finding winners knowing your selection is fast enough is always a good starting point. Now the obvious thing is to use a set of ratings from a specialist company (which can be expensive) or go with a free set of ratings ie as listed on the Racing Post. But unless dealing in handicap races often as not there will be no ratings available hence our attempts over the last week or so try converting Flat, NHF and PTP for comparison to our Hurdle ratings.
After today’s races we will print out our conclusion’s as we will then have a bit more information to work with then and we will put down a very basic calculation for your reference. As for today’s races we now have options on Ad Caelum @ 13-2 and/or Rut Daniels @ 18-1 both without Lady Rose Hackett.

[Mike]

Hi
Well obviously I have made an error somewhere as in the 12.55 whilst we were anticipating a big price and an each way extra on Only You Nora we were not expecting Ballinboe Blaze to be trading at 80-1. But that’s what the sheet tells us so we will take the following prices tonight and hope one of them steps up to the plate tomorrow.
12.55 Ballinboe Blaze @ 20-1 for 5 places
12.55 Only You Nora @ 19-1 for 5 places
In the first race we are in no hurry as Ad Caelum is currently drifting and is 7-1 in places and Rut Daniels is 25-1. In this instance we would be looking for a bet without Lady Rose Hackett or without both favourites dependent on the markets and non runners.

[Mike]

Hi Choncc
We are just sorting out an issue with Em’s account and we should be able to complete the “Valheim” line in the next hour or so.

[Mike]

Hi
We had another neither here nor there day today in our trail run with Fire Force placing 5th but the other two finishing only managing 9th and 10th.
However we have already done both of Thursdays races and subject to a drastic change in ground conditions we will put two selections up for each race at Clonmel that will probably start as favourites but such is life.
12.20 Lady Rose Hackett and Ad Caelum
12.55 Herbies Rover and Ballinboe Blaze
Assuming these will at the head of the market we will update our each way extra selections which are likely to be as follows
12.20 Rut Daniels
12.55 Only You Nora

[Mike]

Hi
We are working on the two Clonmel races for Thursday but in the meantime here are the best prices available for the 1.40 at Fairyhouse today.
Lea Lass drifting to 125-1 but available at 19-2 for 7 places
Scarlet Purse 50-1 but 11-1 for 6 places looks best
Fire Force 80-1 is another drifter but 19-2 for 7 is available

[Mike]

Hi
Thursday’s meeting at Clonmel looks favourite for a wager or two but there is no harm in trying the new sheet out tomorrow in the Fairyhouse race. Here we would be looking to back (for a price for a minimum of seven places) either or all of the following which are currently priced up in the standard market at the prices listed.
Lea Lass 100-1
Scarlet Purse 50-1
Fire Force at 66-1 (would be the third option).

[Mike]

Hi
Well that was a bit better and with Reina Del Mar finishing second it inspired me to check back on my previous results and in doing so we have found an error in the Excel program and have now adjusted it.
We will be looking to try this out on the first two races at Clonmel on Thursday if not the 1.40 at Fairyhouse tomorrow. This will all depend on how many runners are likely to go to post in each race and how many of the field have actually run under rules.

[Mike]

Hi
We already have a non runner in today’s race and I am not sure whether this his help or hinder our chances of producing a get out of jail free card for us after yesterdays bit of bad luck. We have taken the following prices but desperately need one of these to do well for us to continue with the new conversion table theory. We did feel we were a tad unlucky yesterday but you have to be practical with new ideas and know when to re-assess a situation.
Reina Del Mar @ 10-1
Huscari @ 19-2 for 7 places
Now if yesterday was anything to go by we have left the wager too long and missed the 8 places on offer last night for Huscari (so you know where that one will finish…lol) and having missed the 14-1 fourth place now looks booked for Reina Del Mar. The new ratings table hangs in the balance (but that is what makes it interesting).

[Author]

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