[Mike]

Hi
Well that could not have gone any worse as I could have covered all of the above for a nominal profit but having let it ride got well and truly beaten up. But we have learnt a lot today and although there will be nothing for tomorrow I will be attempting a full race as soon as I get my main computer back (hopefully tomorrow) and have adjusted the spreadsheet.
It has to occurred to me that in the revamp it would be nice to get a working excel page to share online but I really do not know if that is possible but with all these fine margins in the “Exchange” markets it is tricky to keep up. It all seems to change about 15 minutes before the off and I am wondering why nobody takes the plunge the night before. I can see an opportunity here to make a real plonker of myself but am still convinced to give it a go…lol.
Watch this space ….

[Mike]

Hi Rob
No problem I see you are rolling the dice here lets hope its a blaze of glory.
Love Me Tender £5 win @ 16-1
Love Me Tender £5 win without Fruit De Mer & The Passing Wife @ 11-1

As for the competition Rob you had the only winner today for +20.73 which puts the April Competition as follows.
Mgame +42.62
Suds +25.00
Andy +21.60
Rob +20.73
The overall competition is getting closer but Mgame will still take some catching….
Mgame +256.57
Joe +211.73
Suds +211.11
Rob +203.94

I will have to check the above as my main computer is undergoing a bit of maintenance but I believe it is correct. ??

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I do believe you are one of the few people I know who genuinely still enjoys the game of “cat and mouse” with the old enemy. ? Royal Champion was a nice return for you the other day and takes you into a useful profit as unlike myself you are a sensible punter and cannot lose it all in one roll of the dice….lol. Also (just for your information) it has take a while but I think a few of your old followers have latched onto this thread as you now have an increasing number of regular visitors as opposed to random ones and they appear to be new contacts.

[Mike]

Hi
Wow…If I thought this was complicated this morning the non runner has me bewildered as I had not put that in as an option on the spreadsheet. The fact that the non runner Sober was one of my lays of the day has also totally thrown me….lol.
El Cairos had been backed @ 5-8 top 3
Koktail Brut had been backed @ 13-8 top 3 & 29-20 (I have no idea how I ended up with two prices here on one bet but I will look into it).
Too Bossy For Us we took 7-2 for top 3.
Le Labo was laid @ 7-4
The non runner will lead to deductions I believe 19.1% (but I am not sure) in the bets already placed and will throw my liability caclulation out of the window….Sean (tech dept) where are you ???.
I will run with the ball as it stands for now and look into this again tonight to see if we can re-jig the speadsheet for tomorrow.

[Mike]

Hi
We finally have the bet builder option and for all three to finish in the top 10 (plus a 25% bet365 bonus) gives us 22.5-1 which we think is well worth a punt. The reasoning being that although a pound or two out of the market both Fairlander & Accustomed are running off bottom weight and both look as though they have a race in them. Add in the fact that Bright Legend is a not over penalised for having been a solid performer all season and it starts to look promising.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I will be picking everyone’s brains on this topic as we go into May as the season winds down for me and I get to dabble…lol.
As for my initial foray into new ways of losing money (there are always options there..lol) I will dabble with the new “Potential” theory which see’s me initially dabbling in the 4.15 at Punchestown today.
We have started by backing El Cairos, Koktail Brut & Too Bossy For Us for a top 3 finish and transversely laying Sober & Le Labo.
As I am new to this I am guessing the obvious tip for everybody is to back my two lays in a reverse forecast. OMG… this is going to embarrassing when that happens…..
I am going to go back into the markets every couple of hours to see how this works but will start to work on the post mortem as the day progress’s.

[Mike]

Hi
Having one pull up did not help the cause and with only Anodandawink placing we lost -1.60 on the day on our last set of wagers which drops us back down to +6.29.
We have our main computer down at the moment but if my memory serves me well all of the following are “Extra Market” horses and go in the 3.05 at Punchestown tomorrow and we have gone straight in at 1/2 point each way on all three.

Accustomed 40-1 but we have gone with 15-1 for 10 places
Bright Legend 25-2 but 10-1 for 10 places
Fairlander 18-1 but we have taken 12-1 for 8 places

We will be looking for a bet builder on the above when the markets are published.

[Mike]

Hi
The first day of the Punchestown festival see’s the following runners heading the declarations.

4.50 July Flower (Moi)

6.05 Il Etatit Temps (Rob)
6.05 Majborough (Mgame & JoeH)
6.05 Marine Nationale (Rob)

This would see Rob looking in pole position on the first day but it’s a funny old game.

[Mike]

Hi
We are to all intents and purposes in the last 10 days of the competition which will end on the 2nd May after the last race of the “Punchestown Festival”. Mgame looks the likely winner at present of both this months and the overall competition especially if Jonbon can finish the season with a bang tomorrow. However Joe, Suds and possibly Rob could still get involved in one or both If they get the rub of the green.
Suds looks to have the cash competition sewn up (especially with Andy’s Woodland Park running a stinker) and would not need to go in again unless Rob can pull a rabbit out the hat with his unused bets but again that’s also a difficult ask.

[Mike]

Hi
No worries Suds it’s been along week..lol. We had three in last week for a return and a win so we are back on track.
Bellewstown 2.05 Ole Ole @ 4-5 Won
Bellewstown 3.15 Fiver Friday @ 13-8 Won
Ayr 4.15 Laguna Beach @ 10-1
Bellewstown 4.25 Struck Oil @ 11-4
Ospreys +2 to beat Sharks @ 10-11 Won
Arsenal to win or draw against Man City @ 10-11

Here are this weeks chancers….
Munster -28 to beat Ulster @ 10-11
Aston Villa to beat Fulham @ 6-4
Sandown 1.13 Cloaks Of Gold @ 7-1
Sandown 2.55 Thistle Ask @ 7-4
Sandown 4.02 Jinko Blue top 2 finish @ 1-1
Sandown 4.40 Calimystaic @ 5-4

The lottery numbers are 4,7,16,23,26 & 50

[Mike]

Hi
I fear there will be no shortcuts when entering into the exchanges (I have been following the markets since last night) and it looks like we will have to go in for a full race, price every runner and be the first to post. This is a very risky proposition but when I see a race I will throw it out on here for an opinion on the suggested tissue odds then I will have someone else to blame when it all goes wrong (only joking)..lol.
We will keep an eye out until five minutes before the off tonight but I cannot see a viable option at present. The most glaringly obvious thing that’s missing is that I will have to devise a way to price the top finish market in comparison to the likely SP. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Just as well we waited as we have managed some extra places without to much hassle.
4.50 Desert Haven 7-1
4.50 McLoughlin 10-1
Both of the above for a top 7 finish @ 3-1 for the standard 1 point win.
5.23 The Dancen Kid is now availble @ 9-1 for 5 places
6.28 Anodandawink 10-1 in the extra markets is 9-1 for 6 places
Both of the above are 1/2 point each way singles.

[Mike]

Hi
Just to keep everyone updated I have not forgotten about this thread and Sean has helped me with a basic but useful tool that we will dabble with as a precursor to our exchange aspirations.
In the 4.50 at Kilbeggan tomorrow we will be looking to take on (in theory) Piccolo Player, Survivors Sister, Coolboy Christy & Jury Belle for top 4/5 finishes.
In theory we will be backing Desert Haven, Kabylia, McLoughlin & Must meet Cecil for a top 4/5 finishes.
The current “Wild Cards” are Chanceawetmorning & Lady Doyenne.
Obviously it all depends what prices become available but I will try and be first one up.

[Mike]

Hi
Lincall was a non runner and Maxicourt ran out of steam so we drop back down to +7.89 but have a few options at Kilbeggan tomorrow with a handful of extra market runners.

4.50 Desert Haven 7-1
4.50 McLoughlin 10-1
5.23 The Dancen Kid 6-1
6.28 Anodandawink 10-1

There is no hurry with any of the above and we will wait until the extra markets open up.

[Mike]

Hi
We will go with Lincall 1/2 point each way @ 9-1 for 4 places in the extra markets with bet 365.

[Author]

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