Taking An Edge

[Clarence]

Hiya, we were wondering what would happen if we only used events that had promotions attached. This would include money back bets or price boosts etc
The first example being tonight’s six nations game between France and Ireland. Paddy Power are offering money back and Bet365 will give you 25% on 3+ leg bet builders
I know Mike has had a dabble on tonight’s game (Good luck 🤞😊) and will post later.
If anyone sees any offers of interest please post.

[Mike]

Hi
I will point out that there is no guaranteed wins and there are T&C’s attached but if you already have an opinion on a game the use of such offers can be very productive. I had been of the opinion there would be tries tonight as France have scored a minimum of 19+ points and Ireland 13 + points individually in there last eight matches.
France have home advantage and are flying high so Ireland could be in for a tough night.
With this in mind I have gone 5 points for France -13 to win @ 1-1 (money back with Paddy Power) then I have gone 4 points on Ireland +27.5 to win with over 4 tries and more tries than penalties scored in the game @ 11-10 (plus a 25% price boost) obviously with Bet 365.
The only thing that could go wrong (in theory) tonight is a low scoring game with converted penalties deciding the game.

[Clarence]

Well done Mike good start to the thread and a good example of how it works 😊👍🏉

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Thanks..In theory it was a shot to nothing but as it worked out both bets came in as we combined our opinion on the match with two differing options that gave us the opportunity for a profit if either came in but also that both could come in.
I will go into detail if required tomorrow but for now the simple facts are we won +5 points with the Paddy Power bet and we also picked up +4.5 points on the bet365 wager so double bubble.
This gives the thread a +9.5 point start and as it is open to active members as a joint thread please feel free to give it go if you see anything that you think is relatively fool proof.
If you look at Ridiculous Ideas for 2026 the wager on Pumas Dream today it also provided a profit today but that was simply a bookmakers error that was we thought was worth a punt. But hopefully it gives you another idea of we are looking at on here. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Quite a few firms are offering free bets or money back offers on the Liverpool v Man City game tomorrow so if there are any mathematicians out there who want to have dabble go for it. I will do the same as before but need a bit of time to work out (what appear to be) the safest option.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I will be happy to join in, but would ask that this thread is protected with a separate password against being viewed by non members.

Many thanks,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
We are looking at options to secure this thread but in the meantime would suggest anyone who is loathe to give away trade secrets for fear of having loopholes closed down use the The Bletchley Park Gang thread and I can link the article to that and just post the results on here. ?

[Mike]

Hi
As we have finally managed to get live threads on the “Bletchley Park” thread we have decided to kick this one back off in a normal unprotected status as we would also like to include the importance of obtaining the best odds just by shopping around. This will incorporate some samples which will be released from the “Bletchley Park” thread just to show the possibilities.
The first example was a bet placed on the betfair exchange where the freakiest odds are sometimes available.
“nb. As we approach the off this race has worked out perfectly as we cannot lose mainly due to non runners but that’s the beauty of the exchanges. Daydream Nation taken @ 190-1 is now only showing +105.96 if it wins but has a cash out of 10.91 for +9.91 profit if we cash out. Alternatively we can lay Daydream Nation at 17-2 for a profit either way.”
This was an example from the last post taken from the above mentioned ( members pass worded) thread. This is just an example and today’s example is taken from a race being run this afternoon at Fairyhouse in the 4.04.
Now we are not suggesting you have a bet in any race unless you were going to anyway but as we have three runners in this race that we were looking for each way options on it suits our purpose well. Now most bookmakers have odds that are much the same on the standard markets.
However for all three runners to finish in the top 5 most bookmakers have combined odds of 5.6-1 but bet 365 are offering 11-1 plus a 25% odds boost if you select three runners or more. This then gives you approximately 13-75-1 which is over twice the odds from all the other firms. For our thread we have gone with all three for a top 6 finish @ 6.75 -1 but could not use that here as most firms only offer 5 places.

[Author]

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