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MikeKeymasterHi
Yesterdays race worked out relatively well and would have kept us out of the poor house and we will try the same trick again today in the 3.10 at Sligo.
Caman Eileen (TS 99)
Newtown Rambler (TS 85) (22.64)
Will Wilde (TS 64)
Final Flutter (TS 44) (22.05 to 21.09)
This time as we are looking for value we take Final Flutter @ 12-1 betting without both Artic Lane and Newtown Rambler.
Once again we have a very short priced favourite by way of Artic Lane who is unrated having never jumped a hurdle in public and as opposed to Tareze yesterday I think this one is beatable.
Drumcliff Bay 16-1 has a decent rating on our books but has not run for a while so watch for market moves and finally Heading South 66-1 although a big drifter is starting to look tempting for 6 places.
As I am due my comeuppance so this probably means Arctic Lane will win by a country mile and Final Flutter will come stone last. But such is life…lol.MikeKeymasterHi
Well that went well enough as we highlighted Whispering Hopes and Kilbarry Ce Ce for the main race and Kilbarry Ce Ce came second at 18-1 so we would have cleared a small profit on those two Whispering Hopes just ran out of steam and finished fifth. Our other selection the 100-1 shot Shing Shilla who we wanted for 8 places duly finished 7th @ 21-2 so again we came out with a small profit.
We will be switching over to the Speed Ratings Irish Hurdlers thread for a while and will be looking to continue dabbling with converting NHF flat times to possible Hurdle timings.MikeKeymasterHi
We will try and use our latest test race to show you how the world and its mother can all come to different speed ratings and why some people just don’t believe in them. Just bear in mind racing is all about opinions and feel free to form your own just please don’t criticize other peoples. Constructive solutions, notions and ideas are always welcome but be respectful. 🙂
The race we are looking at is the 3.03 at Clonmel today.If you looked at the Racing Post Top Speed ratings and listed them by their ratings they would be as follows.
Kilbarry Ce Ce (TS 92) (23.30)
Ad Caelum (TS 91) (23.35 to 23.59)
Milanway (TS 83) (23.46 to 23.62)
Sallap (TS 77) (23.81)
Shing Shilla (TS 77) (22.02 to 22.28)
Whispering Hopes (TS 74) (22.85 to 23.06)
Koo Star (TS 73) (24.52)
etc etc
The rest have a TS (Topspeed Rating) of 66 or less. We have listed these along with our ratings just as an example of varying opinions. With the Racing Post ratings there’s are rated high to low and are worked out professionally by a large team of computer savvy experts. Mine are the highlighted ratings and are rated low to high with a tolerance range and are done by a now retired old man who struggles with excel…lol.
Now the Racing Post ratings are used along with other factors to achieve an RPR rating which is why Tareze who has the highest RPR is the odds on favorite.
We have a similar system to achieve our personal tissue odds ( Forming Tissue Odds ) but we use our speed ratings to look for value selections at what we believe to be inflated or value odds. For today’s race opinion see yesterdays Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 thread.MikeKeymasterHi
Now as you can see from the list printed we have shuffled the Racing Post list around to put the two with both Trainer form and higher Prize Money returns to the top of the list.
Cottesloe Sunshine £ T
Tareze £ T
Whispering Hopes £ (T)
Kilbarry Ce Ce
Ad Caelum
Milanway
Now apart from the difference of opinion on the actual odds we have predicted the top six in the betting. We have rated two of the top six namely Whispering Hopes and Kilbarry Ce Ce in our ratings. However as we are looking to prove a point we would be looking for Shing Shilla 100-1 Angels Peak 100-1 or Shes My Getaway 200-1 to outrun there respective odds and finish in the top 8.
Shes My Getaway has not run for nearly a year and half and is like to need the run. Angels Peak will need to jump a lot better and although Shing Shilla has played up on both her starts but if she goes off with the rest tomorrow looks the best of the three. But all have recorded a decent enough time to get into the mix if not win the race.MikeKeymasterHi Suds
No problem. I am looking at the 3.03 at Clonmel tomorrow and here are the early indications prediction wise for the early markets.
Racing Post top six
Cottesloe Sunshine £ T
Kilbarry Ce Ce
Ad Caelum
Milanway
Tareze £ T
Whispering Hopes £ (T)
Our top seven (speed rating wise) But it is a tight race at the top.
Shing Shilla
Angels Peak
Ladies Well
Whispering Hopes £
Go Avel
Kilbarry Ce Ce
Shes My Getaway T
The unknown quantity is A Family Affair who has not seen a racecourse yet. The £ sign indicates best prize money and the T indicates Trainers form.MikeKeymasterHi
On a positive note thanks to bet365 but (strangely) not so much Betfair as I had all my stakes refunded on Shing Shilla from our previous race as the jockey should never have tried to remount after the flag had gone up.
As for yesterdays race although the each way extra bets would not have come in the race market predictions were pretty much spot on with the exception of Chapter Thirty.
Ma Bess 2nd
Vasda Queen 3rd
The Sugar Hill Lady 4th
Chapter Thirty (ran a stinker)
Miss Dishy 1st
Blue Mosque (Non Runner)
Hats off to Suds for picking up the baton I dropped…lol.MikeKeymasterHi
Well that went down like pork chop at a bar mitzvah with me. 🙁 Come On The Lads rider pulled up after two fences when the saddle slipped on the horse and Shin Shilla’s jockey was not even in the saddle when the starter let them go. What possessed the jockey to then remount the horse and try and make the thirty lengths he lost I will never know. But that is racing for you I have just spent two days doing all this work for nothing. 🙁
However there is a race tomorrow and Suds has decide to give it go and will post something a little bit later.MikeKeymasterHi
The predicted markets worked out really well with the notable exception of Come On The Lads currently priced up at 66-1 and Shing Shilla at 80-1. Therefore we will be looking to back both of those as each way extra’s or without the favourites when all the markets are published.
We will be looking to check for market movers overnight and will update the thread tomorrow morning. Here are tonight’s opening prices.
Mr Percy 1-1
Korea 7-2
Kazakh d’Arthel 4-4
Banana Three 11-2
Rapparee Champ 15-2
Balko D’ange 14-1
Yarraman Makarrata 20-1
Herbies Rover 25-1
Jerrari 25-1
Grey Fable 33-1
40-1 barMikeKeymasterHi Suds
I will fill in the blanks with a few weird ones but occasionally its the only way to fly.
Leinster -6 to beat Connacht @ 10-11
CHI Bulls +5.5 to beat CLE Cavaliers @ 10-11
Taylor Pendrith to win the Shriners Open @ 16-5
Brentford to beat Man Utd @ 7-2
Limerick 1.35 Banana Three @ 6-1
Fulham v Aston Villa both teams to score in both halves @ 10-1
The accumulator comes out at 5303-1 and any treble would be welcome.The lottery numbers are the usual 4,7,16,23,31 and 50
MikeKeymasterHi
In a couple of hours it will be crunch time for the market predictions and tomorrow will be the day of reckoning result wise so here goes with our top ten.
Korea
Mr Percy
Shing Shilla
Come On The Lads
Kazakh d’Arthel
Banana Three
———-
Rapparee Champ
Herbies Rover
Garrick Painter
Yarraman Makarratta
———-
Balko D’age
Jerrari ??
———-
Desert Haven
The Reel Martello
To The Wire
Grey Fable
———-
Hangry
Gimme A Buzz
Rorkes Drift
Indy Rules
Notimelikedpresent
There are several flies in the ointment in this race notably Balko D’ange whose runs have been on Heavy ground and is difficult to assess (unless the heavens open up before the race). Jarrari as mentioned has not run a race yet and could be anything but this is where tomorrows post including market movers comes in. Finally there is Come On The Lads who has yes to step over an obstacle but this horse is of particular interest due to the ratings we are working on.MikeKeymasterHi
Without giving the whole game away the next step with our little trial run would be see which horses have already proven there quality by being profitable. Mr Percy, Rapparee Champ and Korea head that table.
The next obvious step is Trainer form and Balko D’age, Kazakh d’Arthel, Come On The Lads, Shing Shilla, Herbies Rover and Jarrari are in that list. The obvious two to add but separately are Korea and Mr Percy who also appear in our previous list.
Mr Percy ++
Korea ++
Rappari Champ +
———-
Balko D’ange +
Kazakh d’Artel +
Come On The Lads +
Shing Shilla +
Herbies Rover +
This will now impact the tissue odds and for the Racing Post list you would have to make your own adjustments but I would now suggest the following update.
Banana Three TS 102 RPR 125 = 227
Balko D’ange TS 102 RPR 117 = 219 +
Kazakh d’Arthel TS 90 RPR 109 = 199 +
Korea (Joint TS+RPR rating=169) ++
Mr Percy (unrated) ++
Herbies Rover TS 85 RPR 108 = 193 +
Shing Shilla TS 83 RPR 103 = 186 +
Come On The Lads +
Rapparee Champ TS 99 RPR 118 = 217 +
Yarraman Makarrata TS 80 RPR 103 = 186
This gives us our estimated top ten using the Racing post ratings which are available to everyone so you should be able to rate your own races in future.
How you work out or award points/value to the Trainer form and profitability of a horse is down to each persons individual opinion but thats the name of the game.MikeKeymasterHi
I have been asked how the bookies make there markets up in Maiden races with little or no form to go on and in truth I don’t know…lol. But this is why we tend to dabble in said markets and attempt to form our own as they can offer the biggest opportunities if you can spot something they miss.
I will give a second estimated market which anyone can do by using the Racing Post ratings which are readily available as soon a the initial declarations are made.
In tomorrows race I would suggest that judging by there ratings the following group would head there tissue odds.
Banana Three TS 102 RPR 125 = 227
Balko D’ange TS 102 RPR 117 = 219
Rapparee Champ TS 99 RPR 118 = 217
Kazakh d’Arthel TS 90 RPR 109 = 199
Herbies Rover TS 85 RPR 108 = 193
Yarraman Makarrata TS 80 RPR 103 = 186
Shing Shilla TS 83 RPR 103 = 186
The Mullins horse Korea could well be in there as it was well fancied first time up and the unraced Jerrari plus flat raced converts Come On The Lads and Mr Percy are also candidates for the top half of the market.
I would also point out that for those starting out there is an article Forming Tissue Odds that may be of some assistance.MikeKeymasterHi Sudsie
Thanks for having a go its always tricky and usually the kiss of death when you stick your head above the trenches by posting and although it didn’t work out this time. Another Glendars finished fifth and was a huge drifter ended up 80-1 and would have be a cracking each way extra shout had you known. Also Ta Na La finished fourth which would have made the frame dependent on which you bookie you used. So no great loss as it was a straight each way treble and well worth a punt.MikeKeymasterHi
We are going to have a dabble with a new twist on one of our previous “Ridiculous Ideas” and take an 18 runner maiden hurdle race, namely the 1.35 at Limerick this Saturday which has a mix of speed ratings and attempt to price them up. The horses involved are a mix of runners which have times ranging from Flat and/or NHF form only, through to flat and hurdle times and includes one newcomer who has never seen been seen out before.
This opens up a whole new bag of worms but it should be a bit of fun if nothing else. We will adjust the markets to include market moves this time.
We have placed them in the first instance using the speed rating multiplied by the weight carried Saturday less any jockey claims (already declared).
Shing Shilla
Come On The Lads
Korea
Banana Three
Mr Percy
Garrick Painter
Kazakh d’Arthel
Yarraman Makarratta
———-
Desert Haven
The Reel Martello
To The Wire
Grey Fable
Rapparee Champ
Herbies Rover
Jerrari ??
———-
Hangry
Gimme A Buzz
Balko D’age
Rorkes Drift
Indy Rules
Notimelikedpresent
The — dividing lines indicate the groups of horses where the times are very similar and tricky to rate. This list includes the reserves and we will update it with trainer form and going etc when the final declarations are made. The main purpose of this exercise is to determine whether you can rate a horse that has never run over hurdles before by his Flat or NH times. we have thrown Jerrari at the bottom of the middle group as he has no form to go on but rates from a decent yard. -
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