[Mike]

Hi All
I will now update the past few months selections as the moment of truth is upon us.
The most relevant bet for tomorrow has the following runners involved as three of the four selections are set to come under orders on the day one.
The Arkle Ornua 14-1
The Ultima Handicap Singlefarmpayment 14-1
National Hunt Chase Impulsive Star 12-1
(Impulsive Star replaced Mortal who now runs elsewhere)
Benatar is a non runner at the festival
Randox County Hurdle Whiskey Sour 20-1
Originally there were five selections but with only Mortal being replaced the original 10x each way doubles and each way accumulator have now become 4 each way singles 6 each way doubles and an each way accumulator.
Bet number two has two runners going on the first day and has also been reduced by one therefore has again become 4 each way singles 6 each way doubles and an each way accumulator.
Supreme Novice Hurdle Mister Fisher 11-1
OLBG Mares Hurdle Roksana 16-1
Ballymore Novices Hurdle City Island 10-1
Talkischeap is now a non runner at the festival
Champion Bumper Abacadabras 25-1
This bet is probably my best chance of a return as all of the runners are showing tonight at less than double figures so fingers crossed.
I will update the other bets tomorrow morning.

[Mike]

Hi All
Just an update that with now only a week to go I have to date only had the one non runner from all of the bets laid for this thread and that was Carlo Biraghi who I had originally placed in one of the earlier bets which included the Triumph Hurdle.

JLT Novices Chase Kildisart 16-1
Mares Novice Hurdle Lust For Glory 11-1
Triumph Hurdle Carlo Biraghi 16-1 Picd’ohry 12-1
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Kapcorse 25-1
Foxhunter Chase Caid Du Berlais 20-1
This is the usual ante post mix of 10x 1 point each way doubles and a1 point each way accumulator.
As you can see this has now been replaced by Picd’ohry which is now allowed under the new bet365 edit bet scheme I do hope not have to make any other changes as I have been incredibly lucky to date but am expecting to have to make some further alterations at some stage before the festival starts.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I was not realistically expecting anyone else to come up with selections before the final entries weights and ground conditions had been confirmed.
This was more of a pet project which was an extension of last years and if by any fluke I should turn a profit I will be taking it another step forward next year.
However it will be interesting to see how everyone else’s selections come out as I have all but finished with this thread with the obvious exception of possibly replacing any non runners or changing any should the ground turn sour before the off. I have obviously based mine around the premise of Good/Good to soft on the opening day.
I look forward to seeing what everyone else comes up with.

[Mike]

Hi All
I have struggled a bit to come up with the final set of each way doubles and the obligatory each way accumulator but will settle on the following five for the time being subject to non runners and any possible impending (drastic) going changes.
The Arkle Ornua 10-1
The Ultima Singlefarmpayment 14-1
National Hunt Chase Mortal 20-1
Brown Advisory Plate Benatar 20-1
County Hurdle Whiskey Sour 20-1
This looks the weakest of the bunch so far but as an initial foray into the festival means I know have an each way shout in all the races except the Close Brothers and the Cross Country race.
I have Clondaw Castle for the Close Brothers but at the price will use him in with my win bets which will include the following selections ranked in order of preference value wise.
Champion Bumper Envoi Allen 4-1
Foxhunters Chase Ucello Conti 7-1
Triumph Hurdle Quel Destin 7-1
Champion Hurdle Apples Jade 2-1
Close Brothers H’Cap Clondaw Castle 8-1
These will be 10x 1 point win doubles and a 1 point each way accumulator.

[Mike]

Hi
Having been awaiting the handicap declarations I have now made a pre-emptive strike on my handicap selections which are as follows:
Coral Cup Early Doors 16-1
Fred Winter Chief Justice 16-1
Pertemps Wait For Me 33-1
Kim Muir Impulsive Star 12-1
Grand Annual Ballywood 20-1
Martin Pipe Conditional Flawless Escape 25-1
These were done at 15x 1 point each way doubles and a 1 point each way accumulator.
The markets were down and being adjusted on some of my other selections so I will update those when they become avaliable. I am generally pleased at the results of this thread as an exercise as this was just taking last years (https://olbg.ie/forum/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=5421&start=60) ante post thread one step further.
The concept of (phase two) was to make an educated (or some would say uneducated…lol) ante post guess at what type of horse would run in each handicap and then make a selection before the actual declarations were even made. Apart from the Ultima I have somehow managed to obtain a selection for all the handicaps except the Cross Country Chase which I deliberately bypassed.
This now leaves me to wait until the dust settles as I still have Benatar in the Plate and Whisky Sour in the Randox (for which the markets are still being adjusted) plus Clondaw Caste in the Close Brothers (but I missed the price) and of course a re-selction in the Ultima.
The brilliant news for me is that bet365 have just introduced an edit option for bets already placed which means I now have an extra option in my locker should any of my original bets become non runners.

[Mike]

Hi David
Thanks for the info and no matter how much we think we know an alternative opinion is always worth a read. As for Mall Dini I had covered him in my write up and had said that runners having run in this before usually do well and he would be an obvious choice he has already been well backed and is sure to run well. He is still in my shortlist along with the third home last year Squoaoteur who appears to have lost his way and changed yards. I am at present also awaiting to see if Impulsive Star and or Calett Mad 20-1 get entries.

Thanks for the input
Mike

[Mike]

Hi Rob
No problem I was not expecting anyone to keep up as it is way to early for any serious punters to get involved especially when the runners have not as yet been declared…lol.
But you of all people should know I do look at things from a different angle (just have a look at todays selections on the daily chat…lol) but I always appreciate you getting involved when you can.
I will move on to the last race of phase two and put up the stats for the last handicap on the last day of the festival which is the Marti Pipe Conditionals Hurdle.
With the exception of Paul Nicholls this race has been mopped up by the Irish raiders with Wille Mullins having won it twice and Gordon Elliot has won the last two runnings.
This race again is a graveyard for fancied runners with only one favourite having ever won it and Cheltenham form is a bonus but not essential.
9/10 winners have been aged 5 or 6
10/10 winners ran within the last 52 days
9/10 winners had at least 1 previous run around the 2 1/2 mile mark
9/10 winners had at least 3 previous runs over hurdles
10/10 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
10/10 winners had a rating of 133 or higher
9/10 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season
My initial shortlist has been whittled down due to due to Lone Wolf and Danny Kirwan both being lightly raced for a tilt at the stronger festival races therefore I believe no handicap options will be availble due to there lack of qualifying runs.
However last years favourite Flawless Escape who finshed well down the field behind Gordon Elliot’s other two runners had a long break after that indicating that somthing was wrong on the day. He has now had just the one run this time over the jumps but now holds a declaration back over hurdles this weekend so if picking up an entry for this race it might be worth chancing the 20-1 currently on offer.

[Mike]

The end of phase two is in sight and I will go for the Grand Annual next as it appears to have been shuffled up to last race but one the stats are as follows:
9/12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
10/12 winners had at least 10 previous runs around the 2 mile mark
10/12 winners had at least 3 previous wins around the 2 mile mark
11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs
11/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
11/12 winners had a rating of 130 or higher
11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season
As you can see once again the winners tends to be a bigger priced selection and having won last time out or recently has little bearing on the result. Previous course form is an advantage and although a handicap chase previous hurdles form seem to have a bearing.
The most recent trend over the last five or six years is that the higher rated horses seem to be dominating the winners enclosure with 140 or over being a common factor.
Alan Kings Ballywood has an entry in the Arkle but that looks a step to far and if lowering his sights would be an interesting selection especially at the current 20-1 on offer. He ran a decent second behind Dynamite Dollars who was my original selection for the Arkle (now a non runner) and I would take this one if he is given an entry without the need to look elsewhere.

[Mike]

This leaves me just three races to go those being the three handicap races on the Friday so I might as well start with the first the Randox County Hurdle which has the following stats which unsurprisingly do not have any reference to the favourite or being a fancied runners as being of any advantage. Neither does having won last time out seem to be particular positive and it is usuaually again a fairly obscure selection that is needed here which only compounds the problem further
9/12 winners have been aged 5 or 6 years old
9/12 winners weighed 11st or less
9/12 winners ran within the last 70 days
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
10/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 2m/2m 1f
12/12 winners had at least 1 win over 2m/2m 1f
10/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
12/12 winners were rated 132 or higher
This race is all but impossible to even hazard a guess as to what is going to turn up on the day let alone win but a possible forgotten horse would be Whisky Sour who ran third here last year. This one has recently been switching codes between the flat and hurdles circuits so if being given an entry is possibly the joker in the pack and a tidy looking 20-1 at present.

[Mike]

This brings me on to the the last handicap on Wednesday the Fred Winter Juvenille H’Cap this race often as you would expect being for juvenilles throws up a few big priced winners favourites do not do well here and the statistics are as follows:
10/12 winners weighed between 10st-6lb and 11st-5lb
10/12 winners had their last run within the last 40 days
10/12 winners had at least 2 runs on or about the 2 mile mark
12/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over hurdle
10/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
11/12 winners were rated between 124 and 134
10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Paul Nicholls usually has one up his sleeve for this race and Friend Or Foe at 10-1 looks a reasonable shout but I have my eye on a couple of Gordon Ellliots runners who both finished behind Sir Eric last time out.
Chief Justice holds an entry in the JCB but would stand a much better chance in this one whilst the filly Surin has multiple entries and is unlikley to run here. Therefore I am holding out for Chief Justice at 16-1 to see if he gets an entry.

[Mike]

That completes Tuesday and Thursday and I will now pop back to Wednesdays handicaps and have a bash at the first of the day and attempt the Coral Cup H’Cap Hurdle and the stats are as follows. However you can forget about the markets giving you a clue as to the winner as a 16-1 shot would be about par for the course in this one. Previous winning form and previous Cheltenham form are not essential.
9/12 winners were aged 5-7
9/12 winners weighed between 10st 6lbs & 11st 6lbs
10/12 winners had at least 1 run over 2 1/2 miles
9/12 winners had at least 6 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
9/12 winners had at a rating of 139 or higher
9/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
I would not usually list statistics under 10/12 but this is a tricky race and have bent the rules on this occasion and hope you can now appreciate why I originally bypassed this one.
For those of you who do not already know I have been an Apples Jade fan for some years and should Joseph Patrick O’Briens runner Early Doors get an entry here I will take the selection straight away as I feel the 16-1 would be a snip. This one has been well beaten by Apples Jade on his last two starts but has accounted for some good horses along the way and I am sure he has been set up for a race but which one.?

[Mike]

I will carry on with Thursday and finsh the day off by having a look at the last race of the day the Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase for which the stats are:
11/12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
10/12 winners weighed 11st or higher
11/12 winners had their last run within the last 80 days
9/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at 3 miles or over
11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles
10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 6 previous chase runs
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
10/12 winners were rated 134 or higher
10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season
Some of the most notable stats that are missing to note are that winning form at Cheltenham or recent winning form is not essential as only one of the last eight winners had won that season. Pricewise last year an 8-1 shot won the race but the year before a 40-1 shot came home. This makes putting up a suggestion albeit not a tip at this stage nearly imposible but who dares wins etc. Horses that have run in this before do well and last years second Mall Dini 10-1 is well fancied to go one better but of more interest to me at the moment is the third home that day Squouateaur who is currently 20-1 having semed to have lost his love for the game but changed hands to Ben Haslam in January and it would be intersting to see if he gets an entry.
This means I will have to wait a day or two to see which way this race goes as Impulsive Star would be of interst but is currently declared for the Amateaur race on Tuesday.
So for now I will put up Calett Mad 20-1 nrnb who is a Grand National entry and is due to run again this weekend but if entered here would be at the top of my current list. This Nigel Twiston Davies runner was second behind Impulsive Star last time out and I believe would better off at the weights when they are announced.

[Mike]

One last one for the day as I attempt to hit that magic window between the declarations and the weights to be alloted and the next race will be the second handicap on the Thursday the Brown Advisory & Merrilbelle Plate Handicap Chase. The stats are as follows but again beware as the age is variable and the Irish raiders have once again had a drastic effect over the last three years and recent form is not a neccessity.
10/12 winners weighed below 11st
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs at about the 2 1/2 mile mark
11/12 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
10/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs
9/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
10/12 winners had a rating of 136 or higher
10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
I had been looking at Nicky Henderson’s River Wylde for this one but having fallen last time out he has not been seen so since I will pass on this one at present unless he is seen to be returning to action in the next week or so.
Gary Moore’s Benatar was third in the JLT last year and having not hit the heights since may well be considered for this race this year. You would have to forgive his last run but runs well fresh and looks a nice price at 20-1 nrnb.

[Mike]

I am going to bypass Wednesdays handicap’s as they enough to give an aspirin a headache and I will need more time with those. Therefore I will skip to Thursday for the first handicap race of that day the Pertemps H’cap Hurdle Final I have been sweet on one of Phillip Hobbs likely runners Wait For Me as if going straight to the festival this will be his first run over three miles since the wind op and that might just make the difference.
His run behind the useful Paddleyourowncanoe (over the shorter trip) last time out should have ensured he will hit the 140 mark and be eligible to run and the odds of 33-1 nrnb on offer with bet365 this morning may yet sway me to chance this one.
I say chance this one because if you look at the following statistical analysis he would have been fine up until recently but the race dynamic has changed over the last three years with a much younger horse has won it and all three were Irish raiders.
This race as with so many handicaps has been a graveyard for favourites and in general the more fancied runners at the head of the market. Also previous Cheltenham form or experience appears to have little impact on the result.
However here are the stas as usual but bear in mind the last three years results as mentioned as the trends appear to be on the move.
9/12 winners were aged between 6and 8 years old
10/12 winners had their last run with the last 48 days
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 3 miles or further
12/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles
9/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
10/12 winners were rated 133 or higher
11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
There is another selection The Organist at 20-1 nrnb that follows the same principle as Mr Big Shot who was mentioned for the Ultima H’Cap in that I believe this J P McManus owned one has been put by with this race in mind. I can see no futher declarations in sight and no festival entries made and Oliver Sherwood is more than capable of getting one ready.
As you can see I am already beginning to waver and struggle with the handicaps but as mentioned I do not even know if any of the above are going to run but such is the fun of trying to find that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
nb: Having just logged out I recieved notification that A Great View another JP horse who blundered two out in this race last year has just been declared. I backed this horse last year and this one fits the recent profile to a treat is a generous enough 20-1 nrnb and if honest would be my current preference of the three.

• This reply was modified 6 years, 9 months ago by Mike.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I am jumping the gun a bit with the handicaps but the cut off date for the final declarations is tomorrow and with the weights being declared hopefully by next Monday if you are quick you can sometimes get that all important few days in between the two announcements to search for the holy grail.
I know I am ever the dreamer but I think you know me well enough by now to realise that I do not follow the obvious way of doing things….lol. It was really nice to see how we both came up with the same 100-1 shot yesterday albeit a non runner. Just out of interest what would you have made of Thursday’s runner Annie Odds I am beginning to worry I am getting to predictable…lol.
However I digress Mr Big Shot I can see fits most of your handicap trends but obviously only runs twice a year so will crash and burn on that one.
I am now moving on to the next handicap which will complete a review of all of the races for day one of the festival. The race is the Close Brothers Novice H’Cap Chase it strangely has the same quirk as the Ultima in that the 6/7 of the last winners have been in some form of headgear and it also is not a good race for the favourites the statistical analysis is as follows.
9/12 winners were aged 6 or 7
12/14 winner were in the top six in the betting
10/12 winners weighed between 10st 11lbs & 11st 8lbs
10/14 winners had won or been placed last time out
11/12 winners had their last run within the last 45 days
10/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
10/12 winners had at least 2 runs around the 2 1/2 mile mark 19-21 furlongs
11/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
11/12 winners were rated 133 or higher
12/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
9/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
This is not getting any easier but Tom George’s Clondaw Castle looks a likely candidate and a lot will depend on where he goes this week as he one entry on Thursday over 2 miles and one on Wedensday over 2 1/2 miles. Should he run over the longer trip on Wednesday I would be more inclined to take the 10-1 on offer as should he bolt up he will surely shorten up just after the race.
Secret Investor has been beaten twice since going chasing but it has been in very good company he holds no Cheltenham entries to date and could well be being lined up for one of the handicaps.
Talkischeap I have already tagged for the RSA and Mr Big Shot is under consideration for the Ultima H’Cap so I will hold fire on a decision here until I see where Clondaw Castle goes this week but he is at the top of my list so far.

[Author]

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