[Mike]

Hi Suds
Keep the faith or blame me if it doesn’t get any better I was the one who encouraged you to try the new idea out. Hope it picks up soon the month is young.

[Mike]

Hi
You can pick any race you like Rob this will be a learning curve for everybody and we have until 2026 to try and work it all out…lol.
At present we tend to use the Racing Post merely because that is where we take our results from to fill in the database. But as you know the going on the day can only be speculative at the best of times.
Thanks for the update Suds (as if… I would drop you a hint..lol) I will run those new figures on a selection of our benchmark horses to see how they pan out.

[Mike]

Hi
We have our first casualty of the competition with Stateman being ruled out for the season but remember its the best ten scores from twelve that count so keep the faith if you had him.
On the plus side Jonbon has been declared to go on Friday at Cheltenham and there could be list of other big players coming out to play over the next ten days or so.
Also Hopes Are High, July Flower, The Yellow Clay, Marine Nationale and Bowensonfire are declared for Saturday and/or Sunday at Cheltenham. Less likely to run but still holding general entries are Kopek Des Bordes and Brighterdayahead.

[Mike]

Hi
I had another non runner in Fool Me Once due to the racing being abandoned on Tuesday and I do not hold out too much hope for the racing at Punchestown tomorrow but if it does go ahead we have this one declared.

2.45 Space Warrior @ 12-1
We will have to go in with 1.5 points each way as its another one in deficit but such is life.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Apologies I was dabbling with passwords this morning and did not see you posting but I think I have corrected the issue and your post I believe is intact. ?
I was thinking along the same lines and although we have a full data base of 3,4,5 and 6yo NH hurdlers we are struggling with handicap races at present so Maiden Races would be best for us. But as this is joint venture we are flexible.
One or two races a week are fine by me as that fits in well with the amount of Irish Maiden races we are likely to encounter.
Separate input makes perfect sense as long as we all have an area of specialty. ?
We tend to start working on a race when the jockeys have been declared which usually cuts down the chances of non runners.
The only other thing I can add to the above is this is also likely to be a learning curve and hopefully the start of a think tank albeit Bletchley Park or South Park….lol. Therefore comparing data or ideas should form a part of this especially as I am still converting old formulae from flat data to National Hunt (help).
To start the ball rolling I have been chatting to Hopefull about the adjustment to be made for the going conditions when adjusting speed ratings etc. Back in the day when dabbling in Middle Distance Flat through to National Hunt Flat racing I would adjust the times as listed below.

Good was the rated at 100 (using a nominal 100 helps when expressing % when working my excel calculations)
Good To Yeilding was 102
Yeilding 103
Yeilding To Soft 105
Soft 107
Soft To Heavy 111
Heavy 115

However since running data from the new Hurdling data base it appears that the difference should be much greater. ? Suds is in the process of confirming the new adjusted times. But it will take a while as we have to collate over two thousand horses onto a new sheet which is taking longer than anticipated.

In the meantime if anyone spots a race to try out please feel free to post it on here. However if it is a Maiden Race please try and avoid races where more than 10% of the runners have no form to go on or our first time out on a track.

[Mike]

Hi Suds Rob Hopefull

I am really not sure which direction to take this thread as it is likely to be more of an informative collaboration of ideas rather than a Tips based article (to start with) so I will suggest we form an (active) members only access article/thread.
The reasoning behind this is I have had articles and tips posted elsewhere which could only have been taken from this site. I know Rob has had articles from a previous site revamped more or less verbatim but posted under someone else’s name.
I am not trying to be ridiculous here but I know from my prospective that I along with Suds have spent some years developing a data base for Irish NH hurdlers and would not like it made freely available.
I know Rob to be the genuine article and Hopefull has been generous to share a few sheets of information since joining. I have had a chat with Sudsie and we do not mind sharing the basics of this with a small group of trusted individuals.
OMG… I am not sure whether I now feel more like James Bond or Secret Squirrel….but let me know what you think. ??

[Mike]

Hi
We managed a place with Big Dispute so made a nominal profit but we have our worst nightmare running tomorrow at Fairyhouse.

3.28 Fool Me Once @ 8-1 for 5 places.

This one is far and away likely to be the only disappointment for this thread as Fool Me Once is already -20 points. It was very tempting to give this one up but we will go in and at least try and recoup or losses if not a full profit.
With this in mind we are looking to go in with a 2.5 point each way wager tomorrow and will update later tonight.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Strangely it was a deliberate choice to go with that race as I needed to put the old resurrected sheets under pressure to test them out. Our (joint venture with Suds) data base only covers hurdlers and as the top three in the betting were all first timers there was good reasoning in looking at the extra markets for the horses likely to finish out of the frame.
As it stands apart from Jukebox Johnny it would have been a good trial run, the biggest problem I foresee would be that although it lost the the test run has whetted my appetite for the “Bet Builder” option as I do like a price…lol.
In regard to your ratings Rob the whole point of this was to see if anyone wanted to collaborate and as your ratings appear to more or less spot on they would be a given. Hopefull also sent me a sheet over from his data which brought Obey the Order to my attention. ? Therefore I can certainly see some legs in this idea and when I next see a race that would fit the bill I post again. I just need a bit of time to adapt my resurrected sheet from general purpose to be more focused on the Maiden Hurdling scene.
Thanks to everyone for taking the time to get involved and I will try and post another race shortly.

[Mike]

Hi
I have had to wait until this morning for all the extra markets to open up and to see the final going reports etc. There are no non runners which leaves all 20 going to post and with only three spots available you can possibly see why it was a perfect race to use as an example for a dabble in the non standard markets. Rob was spot on with his shortlist to trouble the judge as it appears to be a four horse race but my intent here was to look outside of the box.
Of the seven shortlisted yesterday with the going now declared as Heavy we have the following three which are still of interest and look likely to see the trip out in the given conditions.
I will now list two price options for the pro punters, all three are available for 21-4 for 10 places as each way extras or 11-10 for Gillane and Jukebox Johnny with 21-10 for Beckistine for 10 places in the Top Finish market.
Gillane
Jukebox Johnny
Beckistine
The obvious bet for me at double figures would be the Bet Builder and to have all three to finish in the top ten which comes in at 10-1.
Now for those who know me well (but bear in mind its a trial idea) I just have to throw in a “Hail Mary” in the Bet Builder market.
Whatsanotheryear Top 4
Beckistine Top 6
Gillane Top 7
Jukebox Johnny Top 8
This one comes in at 100-1
I do have other similar options including the “Rag” Ballinagaine Girl at huge prices but I am trying to keep it sensible.

[Mike]

Hi
Here are this weekends dubious options…lol

Gowarn Park 11.53 Langtry Lady @ 7-4
Kelso 1.17 Al Kalila @ 4-1
Wincanton 1.45 Jubilee Alpha @ 6-4
Wincanton 2.23 Blueking D’oroux @ 5-6
West Ham to beat burnley + BTTS @ 10-3
Nick Dunlap to win the WWT Championship @ 12-5

This weeks lottery numbers are 4,7,16,23,26 ad 50

[Mike]

Hi
I can only see the one runner tomorrow (so far) which is APm’s “Don’t Mind If I Do” in the 3.15 at Aintree. I will double check later when I get a bit more time.

[Mike]

Hi
Thanks to a win and two non runners we got a treble (by default) last week but after the last few weeks we will take it…lol.
I know everyone is a bit pushed for time this week but you have until 9pm to join in.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I had noticed but was a bit tied up in an excel program and forgot to post in time. Heron In The Park was also running today and lost but as I am sure you know by now its your day in the sun.

Haiti Couleurs won @ 17-2 for +8.5 with a +10 race bonus
Il Etait Temps won @ 2-9 for +0.22 but with a +12 race bonus

Which makes you a runaway front runner for the November competition with a massive +30.72 points and that will take some catching.

[Mike]

Hi
We had a non runner last time out with Dream Shaper but hopefully have one going tomorrow over at Clonmel. This one will be another kit kat challenge as Suds has “If You Believe” in the same race.

1.12 Big Dispute @ 13-2

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Nice recovery from the second post curse…lol. I would have had kittens putting 20 points on a single horse for a thread but I guess (hopefully) it’s onward and upwards from now. ?

[Author]

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