[Mike]

Hi Rob
Well done that was a nice run from Advertised at a big price today you must be pleased. 👍 I am assuming that’s one to follows as there looked more to come.

[Mike]

Hi
The Dancen Kid is now a non runner so the bet builder is not an option. After some debate we have gone 1/2 point each way @ 8-1 for 5 places on Comanche Moon. Last nights bet on Loi Des Jeux being a “To Follow ” horse was 2 points each way so that’s a possible 5 point loss if today goes wrong. We do hope to have a decent punt coming soon but one step at a time..lol.

[Mike]

Hi
We have one “To Follow” tomorrow for which we had to go straight in with as the price was and is dropping by the hour. The horse is Loi De Jeux but we have missed the 20-1 (Paddy Power) and had to settle for best price 5-1 for 5 places. This did happen with this horse when we last backed him back in January and it would be no surprise if he drifted out again but unfortunately we had to take something for the thread. We may well go in again as we have several bets on this one already but that will not effect our wager here.
The other two runners are “Extra Market” horses and both go in the 3.20 we will wait around until the extra markets open up but at present the following are the best options for 5 places.
3.20 Comanche Moon 7-1
3.20 The Dancen Kid 8-1
We will update the full thread as we have some more options.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Thanks as always for the input it always gets me thinking and the whole point of this thread is to gain alternative opinions. I have long since believed most punters suffer from tunnel vision and are their own worse enemies…lol.
When it come to radical there are thing’s we have been dabbling with that are shamefully ridiculous. We are already running the times of the tail end charlies that trot in last but are wonder how accurate or useful that information will be. ? This has also led to us spotting (accidentally) what may be a more concerning issue that the old rule of “running a horse to obtain it’s best position” seems to have gone by wayside. In some respects this is a good thing due to horse welfare etc but from a betting prospective it could be a game changer.
But as an example of ridiculous we are currently looking into how much time is lost when negotiating hurdles etc. I sometimes wonder whether I need to retire from either racing or thinking in general….lol.
As to track variations, time wise to date we have based our calculations on the faster or slower than timings on the race results plus our own older data to obtain a rating for each track but thought it was now worth trying to update it using our new data base. We now have a workable set of figures for over 3,692 horse over 15,275 races just for “Irish Hurdlers”.
The end game here is to obtain our own alternative rating to the OR for each horse that can be mathematically adjusted to suit the relevant conditions on the day. This will then let us price an alternative market for hopefully a full race which (when we think we have spotted an opportunity) can then be used on ie the Betfair Exchange. For me that day is going to be a test of the cardiac surgeons handiwork as it will be the culmination of over two years graft but win lose or draw… that is what we do.

[Mike]

Hi
I did not go in with the bet builder today as the price was too short and although it would have won I will settle for the fact that both of our extra markets bets came in for a small but welcome +1.70 on the day. This takes us back up to +9.24 which if nothing else has stopped the rot and hopefully steadied the ship.
The next opportunity will be Thursday and hopefully we can get right back on track with a bet builder as well. ?

[Mike]

Hi
It has been a while but as I will be revamping the site and cleaning up/archiving old unused threads I am going to bump this one as it is one I wish to expand upon and keep running. The Heavy ground breakdown I mentioned previously bore no fruit but we should have plenty of time to look back into this now the ground has turned in our favour.
I have one question for the mathematicians and programmers out there regrading “Fact” and “Fiction”. In our calculations we have known “Facts” (I do realise there are variables dependent on fast or slowly run races etc)
1. The finishing time of the race
2. The distance travelled
3. The weight carried
4. The lengths each runner finished behind the winner
Then we have the “Fiction” where calculations are made using industry standard data (Again I appreciate horses have off days etc etc)
1. The going on the day
2. The adjustment for the type of course (some courses are faster than others)
Most members have a sheet that we use indicating our adjustments made for the going and course etc and although these have proved effective and had a huge revamp last year we are still not convinced they are as close as they could be.
The 64 dollar question is using the 4 facts from the sheet how could we best equate the variables. If it was only one variable it would be easy but when you have two variables it becomes tricky.

[Mike]

Hi
We have two extra market horses running at Clonmel tomorrow which are perfect examples of “Exchange” market horses that we have been looking into. Nukies Artcic who opened at 40-1 but is now as low as 6-1 with Sky and Space Warrior who opened as high as 40-1 with Betfred but is now as low as 12-1 with most firms.
We have Nukie’s Artic @ 11-1 for 6 places and for the thread but had to settle for 16-1 for 5 places on Space Warrior. The original idea with the two had been a bet builder for which the markets are not yet available but we may go in again tomorrow.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Thanks for the moral support but it was in reality a close but no coconut day as Urbs Intacta Manet came sixth I wanted fifth so -1. The two bets on Danny the Champ came in for +1.5 but just missed out on the win (which would have been nice). Kellys Corner placed for +1.2 but so +1.7 on the day which in truth I would have settled for yesterday but such is life.
Also thanks for the (several) hints from not just Rob but also a few others about the folly of the bet builder but there is a “Baldrick” involved which I hope will be come apparent soon involving the exchange markets.
But in the meantime you are all right as the running total now stands at +7.54 overall (I have reduced total by -1.5 due to updating the returns) with the breakdown as follows which points out the bet builder losses.

To Follow Horses +12.95
Bet Builders -3.87
Extra Market Wagers -1.54

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I must confess although not a huge fan of the National I did watch it and when they cleared the last I thought Jordans was nailed on and whoever it was had that bet of £100,000 @ 8-1 on I Am Maximus must have been having kittens.
But although frustrating for you that was still a cracking shout to get one in the frame at the price.

[Mike]

Hi
We have another “To Follow” to add into the mix today and a top up wager on one of last nights early doors selections all at Down Royal.

3.05 Danny the Champ without Only For Our Man & King Gris @ 10-1 4 places
3.35 Kellys Corner (a new “To Follow” horse) 11-1 for 6 places

Its going to be a squeaky day today as we have had to have had 1 point each way on the new “To Follow” horse Kelly’s Corner which brings today’s possible losses to 5 points but it is a case of “Who Dares Wins”. Lets hope it does not turn into a case of “Who Dares Wins …Rodney”.

[Mike]

Hi
Now we have got Cheltenham and Aintree of the way we can get back to the threads in earnest. We have two “Extra Markets” horses going tomorrow both at Down Royal.
2.30 Urbs Intacta Manet 18-1 (bet 365) but we have gone 35-4 for 5 places
3.05 Danny The Champ 33-1 but we have taken 15-1 for 6 places
We may go in again tomorrow but for now the bet is just 1/2 point each way singles.

[Mike]

Hi
We have been doing alright lately so I am feeling confident about tomorrow’s selections.
Aintree 12.45 Kala Conti without Slavator Munti @ 11-8
Aintree 2.30 Brave Fortune without Mr Hope Street & Cruz Control @ 10-3
Aintree 3.05 Jinko Blue without Honesty Policy & Strong Leader @ 7-2
Aintree 4.00 Quai De Bourbon without I am Maximus & Panic Attack @ 20-1
Southwell 5.15 Tortured Soul @ 10-3
Womens Rugby Union Wales +5.5 to beat Scotland @ 4-5

The lottery numbers are the usual 4,7,16,23,26 & 50

[Mike]

Hi Suds
They all count you made another £25 today and that takes you into what looks like a winning position as you now have a total of +£51.88 in the cash competition unless Mgame (+£16.25) Rob or Andy can pull a rabbit out of the hat in the next three weeks.
You also picked up +25 points in the competition which means you go into second in the April competition.
Mgame +42.62
Suds +25.00
Andy +21.60
I will update all the totals on Sunday as we still have a couple entered tomorrow Kala Conti (Moi) who goes in the 12.45 and then Haiti Couleurs (Rob) and Quai De Bourbon (Moi) who both run in the National.

[Mike]

Hi
I think the way it is going I could have guessed today results the two I left alone as they had already won for me Agameoftwohalves & James The Brave both won again and the rest all lost.
This means I will need someone to throw me a lifeline soon as I have now managed to slip further into the mire and now stand at a paltry +6.24. But on the bright side I have nothing for tomorrow so my head will remain above the mud until at least Sunday.

[Mike]

Hi
Apologies it was a long day yesterday and I was not quite 100% last night but here we have the full update.
Wexford 4.55 Accustomed
Wexford 4.55 Humble Brag
Wexford 4.55 Miss Mini Bee
These three are all taken for a top 7 finish with the bet365 boost included @ 3.75 -1
Wexford 4.55 Speakasyoufind
This one is non runner but hopefully he will get a run shortly.
Wexford 5.28 Agameoftwohalves
Wexford 6.05 James The Brave
Both of the above have already won for us so we will leave those alone today.
Dundalk 7.50 Grey Fable 12-1
I have taken this one each way @ 8-1 betting without both Desert Friend & Celtic Druid.

[Author]

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