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Robmull.
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08/04/2026 at 7:42 PM #2134709/04/2026 at 11:23 AM #21350
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
As I had hoped, LULABMA has been the subject of an odds boost by both B365 and William Hill and is available at evens.
This has given me the opportunity to back him with both bookmakers, then lay him on the exchanges for a guaranteed profit whether he wins or not, as follows:
4.0 pts win @ Evens – returns 8.0 pts
3.2 pts lay on the exchanges which returns 8.0 pts after commission, resulting in a guaranteed profit of 0.8 pts.
Not a bad return when compared with my initial plan which was to place a 1.0 pt win bet at evens which would have returned 1.0 pts profit if he won and lost 1.0 pt if he failed!!
All the best,
Rob.
09/04/2026 at 4:00 PM #21351
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
It was too early to tell whether LULAMBA would have won if he had not unseated his rider at the 10th fence, as he was in a fair position and looked to be travelling well.
I still believe that he will be worth following next year when racing over at least 2 1/2 miles.
However, my decision to hedge on him today paid dividends as it turned what would have been a 1.0 pt loss into a welcome profit of 0.8 pts.
The juvenile hurdle form from Cheltenham took a hit in the first race at Aintree, with the second, third, fourth and fifth in the Triumph Hurdle, plus the runner up in the Fred winter, all beaten by a filly who swerved the extravaganza in March – I remain convinced that this year’s 4yo hurdles remain a pretty motley bunch, who are likely to struggle when facing their elders next season.
It will be interesting to see the size of the RPR that is awarded to JANGO BAIE for his 16 length success in the Bowl Chase, as he ended up beating just a couple of ‘over the hill’ 11yos and his jumping was less than fluent.
That said, it was no worse than that of SPILLANE’S TOWER, who was eventually pulled up, so hopefully will now be declared a non runner for the Grand National on Saturday, as based on that evidence he would have little chance of negotiating the 30 fences and at least I will see the return of my stake under the NRNB rule!!
Unfortunately, I have no selections for tomorrow, but I may be able to hedge another bet if SOBER GLORY is boosted by at least one of my bookmakers – I will provide details tomorrow, if the opportunity arises.
Betting bank now 107.65 pts (with 5 points of antepost bets banked)
All the best,
Rob.
10/04/2026 at 10:54 AM #21356
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
All three of my bookmakers have offered boosted odds on SOBER GLORY, although some have been more generous than others, but even the worst of their offerings can be hedged for a profit, enabling me to play as follows:
6.00 pts win (2.00 pts each @ evens, 11/10 and 5/4) for a return of 12.70 pts
5.88 pts lay on the exchanges which after commission provides a return of 12.70 pts
Guaranteed profit 0.82 pts
All the best,
Rob.
10/04/2026 at 4:34 PM #21360
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have a few thing that I want to jot down this afternoon before I forget.
Let’s start with the hedged bet from this morning which duly obliged as SOBER GLORY could only finish 4th of the 6 runners for a profit of 0.82 pts.
Perhaps I am cheating by including these bets in my betting bank totals, but in my opinion find opportunities to make a profit is all part of the game, as let’s face it we wouldn’t be punters if we didn’t want to make a few quid!!
It is also worth mentioning that bookmakers offer increased odds to bring in extra business on runners where they believe that they have a strong chance of getting the horse beaten.
I have no empirical evidence to back up my theory, but I tend to be prepared to back a runner where one bookmaker has boosted the odds, but I am very wary when two of my bookmakers get involved.
The fact that all 3 were offering boosted odds on SOBER GLORY screamed to me that he was an extremely vulnerable odds on favourite.
The result for the Top Novices’ Hurdle has done nothing to suggest that the form from last month’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is anything other than weak, as not only did SOBER GLORY flop, but the fourth home at Cheltenham BARON NOIR only finished third today.
Next up, just a quick confirmation that SPILLANE’S TOWER is a non runner in the Grand National tomorrow, so my 1.0 pt antepost bet stake has been returned.
It was French Guineas trials day at Deauville on Tuesday, which has generated a couple of new entries for my tracker:
AFANDY – 3yo gelding who as such is ineligible for the Guineas, but made all the running to win the Group 3 Prix Djebel for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 114. He appears to be progressing well and has now won 3 of his 4 career starts and should be worthing following in similar Group 3s in the future, especially when allowed an uncontested lead.
SHOWNA – 3yo filly who was a surprise winner of the Group 3 Prix Imprudence at 64/1, for which she recorded a career best RPR of 109. It is difficult to know what to make of this effort, as she has spent the winter running in moderate handicaps on the all weather at Deauville where her previous best RPR was just 87, yet she actually ran a quicker time than AFANDY on just her second attempt on turf. Although I have added her to my tracker, it is with the caveat that she runs to this level of form next time, which will not be in the French Guineas, as she has not been entered for the race.
I shall now start reviewing my shortlists for tomorrow’s races at Aintree, which of course includes the Grand National.
Betting bank now 109.47 pts (with 4.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
10/04/2026 at 6:49 PM #21363
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have found not one, but two selections at Aintree, tomorrow.
12.45 – KALLA CONTI – has shown her best form over fences when winning a Grade 2 Mares’ Novice Chase at Cork by 16 lengths from Arkle Chase winner KARGESE. She was awarded a career best RPR for that effort, which is about as good as any form in this Grade 1 race and also benefits from her mares’ allowance.
3.05 – JINKO BLUE – did this thread a favour when winning the 2m5f Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He has a bit to find based on RPRs with a number of his rivals and is stepping up in both class and distance, but is unexposed over hurdles after just 7 starts (3 wins) and the staying hurdle division is crying out for new blood.
0.25 pts win on each @ 4/1 and 7/1 (boosted), plus 0.25 each way double (4 places on 3.05) with Bet 365
Betting bank now 108.47 (with 5.0 pts worth of bets for tomorrow).
All the best,
Rob.
11/04/2026 at 6:55 PM #21370
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I ended up enduring a real mixed bag of results today, with only 2 of my 5 selections managing to complete.
KALA CONTI – was beginning to make good headway when falling 3 from home and would probably have been involved in the finish.
JINGKO BLUE – could only finish sixth and probably needs to lead over distances around 2 1/2 miles.
OSCARS BROTHER – unseated his rider at the 15th fence in the Grand National.
JAGWAR – unseated his rider at the 19th fence when still travelling OK.
JORDANS – finished 3rd in the Grand National @ 28/1, but was only beaten 3 3/4 lengths having led over the last fence and may have won had his jockey Ben Jones held on to him longer rather than taking him into the lead after the penultimate fence.
It was a losing day, but not a complete disaster as JORDANS returned 3.3 pts, albeit a little frustrating.
Betting bank now stands at 111.77 pts.
All the best,
Rob.
12/04/2026 at 11:09 AM #21372
MikeKeymasterHi Rob
I must confess although not a huge fan of the National I did watch it and when they cleared the last I thought Jordans was nailed on and whoever it was had that bet of £100,000 @ 8-1 on I Am Maximus must have been having kittens.
But although frustrating for you that was still a cracking shout to get one in the frame at the price.12/04/2026 at 12:21 PM #21373
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Thanks for your kind words.
With all the changes made to the Grand National over the past decade, the race is evolving all the time, which has changed my opinion from a race that I would swerve at all cost, to a fascinating puzzle that has become a bit of an obsession.
I have been tweaking my shortlist criteria almost every year and have over the past few years found one or two that have provided a profit, so I can’t complain about making a small loss on the race this time.
I need to undertake a further review of my criteria this year, as I have already identified a blindingly obvious failure in my current methodology which meant that I removed both I AM MAXIMUS and IROKO but no other contenders at the final stage before sharing the shortlist on the thread.
I have also analysed the results of the first day of the Aintree Festival, which do not make good reading when considering that there were four Grade 1 races on the card.
Only one runner achieved a class par performance and has added to my tracker and that came in the Grade 2 filly and mares bumper:
NAN’S CHOICE – was a comfortable winner despite idling in front towards the end of the race and has been awarded a career best RPR of 123. She has won 2 of her 3 starts in Bumpers and has shown significant improvement on each occasion recording progressive RPRs of 94, 115 and 123. Hopefully she can build on this fine start to her career when she runs in novice hurdles next season.
The RPRs awarded for the Grade 1 4yo hurdle (130) and novice chase (152) suggested that the races were no better than solid Grade 3/Listed events, whilst BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (157) produced a figure worthy of a Grade 2 open hurdle.
JANGO BAIE (173) got closest to a class par figure in the Bowl Chase, but is beginning to developed a similar profile to his stablemate JONBON, in so much as he may end up mopping up weak Grade 1s, but always struggle to win when racing against true top level opponents.
The other interesting performance came from BARTON SNOW in the Foxhunter Chase over the Grand National fences, as he has shown progressive form in winning each of his 6 starts in Hunter Chases, culminating in victories at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. Although I have little knowledge of the PTP and Hunter Chases circuit, I just wonder if his connections are considering letting him run in top quality Grade 3 Handicap Chases, as he looks capable of further improvement and now has a career best RPR of 151 which suggests he is fairly treated off his current OR of 145. I seem to recall a few Hunter Chaser have made successful forays in the past, including OTTER WAY and SPARTAN MISSILE to name a couple from the 1970s.
All the best,
Rob.
13/04/2026 at 4:30 PM #21376
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Days 2 and 3 of the Aintree festival produced similar results in relation to the 7 Grade 1 events, with none of the runners recording a class par RPR worthy of anything other than Grade 2 or Grade 3/Listed performances.
This is not unusual for Aintree, so perhaps it is time for the National Hunt pattern race committee to bite the bullet and realise that not all of the current Grade 1 races should be given the same designation. Either the better quality Grade 1 s could be redesignated as Premium Grade 1s, or the weaker races could be relegated to Grade 2, or even Grade 3/Listed status (albeit retaining the same level of prize money).
Alternatively, in an attempt to counter the problem of small fields in many of the weaker graded races, they could be turned into graded handicaps perhaps with a limited span of weights, which would hopefully boost produce more competitive events, which in turn would attract more punters – it seems to have worked with the National Hunt Chase and the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.
Ironically, the only performance at Aintree that achieved the Grade 1 class par figure was that of I AM MAXIMUS (176) who won the Grand National and is undoubtedly the classiest winner of the race since the introduction of RPRs 40 years ago. – what a performance!!
Unfortunately, there are no Grade 1 chases over further than 3 miles 2 1/2 furlongs in either the U.K. or Ireland, but I wonder whether JP McManus and Willie Mullins will be tempted to send I AM MAXIMUS to Auteuil, France in mid May for the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris, which is run over 3 miles and 6 furlongs which is worth over £300k to the winner, as the horse would have strong claims against his French counterparts?
I have added the winner of the last race at the Aintree festival, the Grade 2 Bumper to my tracker:
FORTHFACTOR – recorded a career best RPR of 130 for his 2 1/2 lengths victory, which suggests that he should have a bright future over obstacles if taking to hurdles.
As I mentioned in my previous post on this thread, the Grand National ihas been slowly evolving over the past decade and now bares little resemblance to the race it once was. That said, it remains a fascinating puzzle for punters to crack, albeit the criteria for finding the winner has to be refined frequently.
With that in mind, I have been considering some tweaks for my methodology for producing next year’s shortlist, as follows:
The best performing horses in recent renewals have either won, or finished second (beaten less than 5 lengths) in at least one Grade 1 or 2 chase, or have won a Grade 3 Chase (including handicaps). Horses with an Official Rating below 146 can be safely discarded.
The runners at the head of the weights do not need to have much in hand based on their best RPR figures when compared with their current Official Rating, whereas the lower weights need to have a significant positive difference between the 2 ratings.
Stamina is imperative to see out the race, which suggests that runners either need to have won a chase over at least 3 1/2 miles, or have finished well over at least 3 miles 1 furlong and have a Dosage Index of less than 0.75.
Whilst the fences are far less demanding than they were in the past, meaning that average jumpers can bludgeon their way around, it is important that they are well balanced horses with quick feet to ensure that they can get out of trouble if either meeting a fence wrong, or landing awkwardly.
With a guaranteed field of 34 runners, it is important that a shortlist candidate has run with credit in a race with at least 20 runners.
Although, I AM MAXIMUS was 10 years old, ideally shortlisted runners should be younger, in line with the previous 9 winners and have run in no more than 16 chases, the only caveat being if the horse recorded a top 4 finish in the race last year and was beaten no more than 10 lengths.
Ideally, shortlist candidates must have shown good recent form, or have a valid excuse for a poor run.
Shortlist candidates should not have a history of leading or racing prominently early.
Finally, preference should be given to Irish trained runners.
There is no need to come up with specific qualification figures for these criteria at this stage, or define how many requirements need to be met to make the shortlist, but at least I have documented my plan of attack for next year, whilst this year’s race is still fresh in my mind.
All the best,
Rob.
14/04/2026 at 12:16 PM #21378
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
A rare bet on the flat in April for Thursday in the Class 2, 6F 3yo Handicap at Newmarket (1.50) on Thursday.
ADVERTISED – will be making his seasonal debut, but registered 2 wins from 5 starts as a 2yo and although both victories were achieved on synthetic surfaces, he recorded his best RPR of 91 when finishing 4th at 50/1 on his final start of the season in a valuable Class 2 Conditions event over 7 furlongs at York in October. He weakened in the last furlong losing 2 places in the process, which suggests that the step back in distance should suit and he is reasonably treated of his current OR of 90. His trainer Grant Tuer has his horses in good form, but the most intriguing aspect is that master tactician Jamie Spencer has been booked to ride which will be the first time he has joined forces with this stable during the past 5 years. This may prove to be a complete shot in the dark, but I couldn’t resist a small each way bet at the prices.
0.25 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) with Bet 365 @ 33/1 (only 20/1 with the other major firms that have priced up the race, so far).
Flat racing in Europe is beginning to ratchet up this month and there were 6 Group 3 Classic Trials held on Sunday, split between Longchamp and Leopardstown, from which 3 winners have been added to my tracker, as follows:
EVOLUTIONIST – 3yo filly trained by Karl Burke, who recorded a career best RPR of 109 on her visit to France to take the Prix de la Grotte over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. Although I am not convinced at this stage that she is capable of winning above Group 3 level, she did finish 3rd (btn 4 1/2 lengths) in the Group 1, Fillies Mile at Newmarket, which is a major form boost for the Aidan O’Brien trained winner that day, PRECISE who is currently clear favourite for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.
KOMOREBI – 3yo colt trained by Andre Fabre, was victorious in the Prix de Fontainebleau over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. He recorded a career best RPR of 112 and should be capable of winning again at Group 3 level, albeit his profile does not suggest he is ready to step up in class.
TRUE LOVE – 3yo filly trained by Aidan O’Brien, who recorded an RPR of 111 when winning the Priory Belle Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown. She ran 7 times as a 2yo and recorded 2 Group 2 and a Group 1 victory all at sprint trips, but appeared to see out this longer distance well. On breeding she should see out a mile, which makes her worth considering for the 1000 Guineas, for which she is currently joint third favourite behind 2 of her stablemates namely PRECISE and DIAMOND NECKLACE.
The CONSTITUTION HILL saga moves on to Newbury on Saturday, where he has as expected been entered for the Group 3 John Porter Stakes over 12 furlongs on Saturday, although Nicky Henderson has stated that he is unlikely to run if the ground is too quick.
I did have a quick look at the antepost markets for the race, when I heard that the 9yo gelding was vying for favouritism as I thought there may be some value to be found in respect of one or two of his 9 fellow entries.
However, the bookmakers appear to be running scared of the punters as they appear to have priced up the race without CONSTITUTION HILL and then inserted him at around 3/1 or 4/1, depending on their level of cowardice, resulting in a best odds overround of 126% across the major bookmakers, with a couple of firms offering a 146% book, which is appalling value on a 10 runner race, with no NRNB safety net.
I suspect that better odds will be available on most of the declared runners on the day of the race.
Betting bank now 111.27 pts (with a 0.5 pt bet for Thursday).
All the best,
Rob.
16/04/2026 at 2:34 PM #21385
MikeKeymasterHi Rob
Well done that was a nice run from Advertised at a big price today you must be pleased. 👍 I am assuming that’s one to follows as there looked more to come.16/04/2026 at 4:00 PM #21386
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
ADVERTISED certainly ran a big race, to finish runner up at an SP of 12/1, despite becoming a little unbalanced when encountering the dip, to provide a return of 2.32 pts.
He certainly looks capable of further improvement, but I guess it depends on how the handicapper reacts as to whether he will be one to follow in the short term and I would be wary of backing him again on either course at Newmarket, without evidence that he can negotiate the dip.
Moving on, I was not surprised to hear yesterday that CONSTITUTION HILL would not be declared for the John Porter Stakes at Newbury, due to the likelihood of quick ground. However it does raise the question of how he will be campaigned during the season, if he is to only run on slow turf, in which case a dry spring and summer are likely to scupper any plans for him to take in the Ebor Handicap at York in August, followed by a stab at the Melbourne Cup.
I mention these two races as he is close to the top of the antepost list for both events and I worry that fans of CONSTITUTION HILL will be backing him over the next few months, only to find that they don’t get a run for their money.
If the early antepost market for the John Porter has taught us anything, it is that the bookmakers will not be taking any chances and are therefore likely to offer him at ridiculously short odds, whilst pricing up the other entries as if CONSTITUTION HILL is not involved in the race, as seen when news of his non participation resulted in only marginal changes to the odds of the remaking candidates on Wednesday.
My advice for punters when considering a bet in a race in which CONSTITUTION HILL has been entered is a follows:
1. Do not back any horse antepost, as better odds are likely to be available on the day of the race, when the massive additional overround has been removed by market forces.
2. Do not contemplate backing CONSTITUTION HILL until bookmakers have issued their odds boosts for the day, as he is likely to be the subject of plenty of offers, which may just turn out to offer value.
3. If CONSTITUTION HILL is sent on his travels for a race outside of the U.K. and Ireland, if possible back him on the local pari mutual (Tote) as overseas punters are very likely to less influenced by the hype surrounding him.By following these simple rules, we should at least be able to minimise the risk of suffering unnecessary losses.
The final declarations for the Scottish Grand National were published earlier today, at which time my initial reaction was that it will be a weak renewal based on the fact that the top weight runs off an OR of just 145.
That said there are a number of apparently well handicapped novice chasers in the field, so it could prove to be very competitive and may just produce a candidate or two for next year’s top staying handicap chases.
Possible the best handicapped horse in the field is MONTREGARD, who was added to my tracker when winning his latest race at Ascot back in February. Despite only a 7yo, he’s is a second season chaser who has won 4 of his 10 starts over fences and appears well treated off his current OR of 132, compared with his latest career best RPR of 142. Although he is yet to race over further than 3 miles, he has generally been full of running at the finishing line, whilst his Dosage Index figure of 0.54 suggests that he has sound claims of staying 4 miles.
0.50 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places) at 10/1 (current joint best odds, but others only offering 5 places max) with Boylesport
Betting bank now 112.59 (with 1.0 pt of bets for Saturday).
All the best,
Rob.
18/04/2026 at 4:14 PM #21396
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
MONTREGARD was a late withdrawal from the Scottish Grand National due to officially heavy ground, so 1.0 pt stake returned, but we may not have long to wait to see whether he is as well handicapped as I think he is, as he entered for the Bet 365 Handicap Chase at Sandown next Saturday, for which he is already on my shortlist for consideration.
As a general rule, I don’t tend to take much notice of performances achieved in flat races below Listed status, however two of the exceptions to this rule are the 3yo non handicap events at the Newmarket Craven meeting and the 2 day meeting at Newbury that directly follows on, in which it is often following winners who are awarded very high RPRs.
Not all the results from Newmarket have as yet been awarded RPRs, so there may be more to follow, but so far I have identified the following additions to my tracker:
TALK OF NEW YORK – 3yo colt who was the comfortable winner of the Class 2 Conditions Stakes over 7 furlongs on Tuesday. He recorded a career best RPR of 105 for that effort, which suggests that he should be worth following in races up to Listed status, or perhaps weak Group 3 events, albeit I doubt that his entry in the 2000 Guineas will reap rewards.
DAMYSUS – 4yo colt who made short work of his rivals to win the Group 3, Earl Of Sefton Stakes over 9 furlongs on Wednesday. He was already in my tracker having won a similar Group 3 over the same course and distance last October, but his latest career best RPR of 123, suggests that he is worth upgrading as based on this evidence he appears to be capable of winning a Grpup 2, or even a weak Group 1 over either a mile, or 10 furlongs.
PORTCULLIS – 3yo colt who was an impressive winner of the Class 2 Wood Ditton Stakes over a mile on Thursday. It is never easy to judge the worth of the winner’s performance in this race as it is restricted to previously unraced runners, but he was awarded a massive debut RPR of 99, which suggests that he should be capable of winning a novice event, or perhaps a weak Listed race in the near future.
MAHO BAY – 3yo colt who ran out the comfortable winner of the Class 2 Novice Stakes over 10 furlongs on Thursday. He was awarded an RPR of 103 for this effort, which was a significant improvement on his admittedly good debut effort (RPR 91) when winning over 11 furlongs at Kempton, all of which suggests that he will not be out of place in a Listed/Group 3 Derby Trial next month.
That’s all for now, but I will provide my thoughts regarding any further additions to the tracker from either Newmarket, or Newbury once the RPRs have been awarded.
Betting bank now 113.59 pts
All the best,
Rob.
20/04/2026 at 4:25 PM #21402
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
As promised here are a few more horses that produced performances at Newmarket and Newbury which deserve to be included in my tracker:
RUN TO FREEDOM – 8yo horse who ran his best race for almost 3 years to win the Group 3 Abernant Stakes over 6 furlongs at Newmarket on Thursday. His winning RPR of 117 suggests that he is worth following in similar Group 3 events, plus he may be worth a small each way punt in the Group 1 July Cup as his previous two attempts have resulted in him finishing runner up at 28/1 and third at 40/1.
I’M THE ONE – 3yo filly who spreadeagled her rivals to win a Class 3 Maiden for fillies over 10 furlongs at Newbury on Friday by 6 lengths. She was making her debut in this race and clearly has the potential for significant improvement, as she looked far from the finished article yet recorded an RPR of 92, which suggests that she should prove competitive in a Listed, or Group 3 Oaks Trial next time out.
CONVERGENT – 4yo colt who did not get the best of trips during the race, but still managed to give weight to each of his 5 rivals in the Group 3 John Porter Stakes over 1 mile 4 furlongs at Newbury on Saturday. He was awarded a career best RPR of 121 for this victory, which can probably be upgraded a little in the circumstances and should be capable of acquitting himself with merit in Group 2, or even weak top level events.
STEM – 4yo gelding who could only finish ninth in the ferociously competitive Class 2 Sping Mile Handicap over a mile at Newbury on Saturday. However, the quick ground was never going to play to his strengths, which suggests that he ran well on his seasonal debut and is very well treated off an OR of 89 compared with his career best RPR of 100. He is likely to be seen at his best over a straight mile on ground that is no quicker than G/S.
WATER TO WINE – 3yo colt who was an impressive 4 1/4 lengths winner of the Class 2 Maiden over 1 mile 3 furlongs at Newbury on Saturday. He was making his racecourse debut and is highly likely to improve significantly on the RPR of 94 which he was awarded for this victory, suggesting that he should be worth considering in Listed/Group 3 events in the not too distant future.
Keen eyed readers may have noticed that I have not mentioned any of the Guineas Trials so far, as I intend to cover them off separately in the next day, or so.
All the best,
Rob.
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