QUALITY RACING 2026

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

After the latest set of ‘scratchings’ for the 2000 Guineas, it is now time for me to start my analysis for the first classic of the season.

OK, cards on the table, it appears on paper to be a very moderate renewal as none of the 20 remaining entries were capable of recording a performance that achieved a Group 1 class par RPR during their 2yo careers.

That said, there is a massive elephant shaped void in the entry list, which goes by the name of GSTAAD, who was erroneously withdrawn from the race due to a technical hitch last month, but could still be supplemented at a significant cost at the 6 day stage, albeit his trainer Aidan O’Brien has intimated that the colt may be aimed at the French equivalent.

If GSTAAD is supplemented for the race, his presence will have a significant impact on both my betting strategy and the betting markets, as he achieved the 2yo Group 1 class par RPR of 117 twice, in finishing runner up to the ill fated GERWAN in the Dewhurst Stakes, which he then followed up when winning the Breeders Cup Turf.

In the meantime, I currently have a shortlist of 7 entries for the race, but quite frankly I am struggling to enthuse about any of them, as they all have questions to answer, as follows:

BOW ECHO (RPR 111) – the current 11/4 favourite, but his best performance was achieved in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over the Guineas course and distance, but winners of this race tend not to turn into Group 1 milers, but often prove more suited when stepped up in distances and has yet to run this season, albeit his trainer believes that he will be fit enough to be competitive. Current odds appear to short in light of my concerns and may prove to be a false favourite.

DISTANT STORM (RPR 113) – twice finished behind the ill fated GERWAN, but did finish 3rd in the Dewhurst Stakes, for which the form has worked out well with the fifth horse OXAGON winning the Craven Stakes, whilst the sixth (ALPARSIAN) and fourth (ZAVATERI) finishing first and second in the Greenham stakes. He has yet to race this season, but his trainer Charlie Appleby has been responsible for 3 of the last 4 winners of the 2000 Guineas.

OXAGON (RPR 110) – has proven his fitness by winning the Group 3 Craven Stakes, but his winning RPR was below the class par figure, suggesting that he is an unlikely winner of the 2000 Guineas.

POWER BLUE (RPR 112) – achieved his Group 1 victory in the Phoenix Stakes over 6 furlongs at the Curragh, but subsequently finished runner up to THESECRETADVERSARY in the Group 3 Red Rock Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown earlier this month.
Likely to prove best when returned to sprinting.

PUERTO RICO (RPR 116) – finished last season with two Group 1 victories in France over 7 furlongs at Longchamp and 8 furlongs at Saint-Cloud, but on neither occasion did he achieve the Group 1 class par figure. I am always wary of the strength of the Group 1 form from French races for 2yo and prior to these victories he had been beaten by both POWER BLUE and OXAGON. Current best odds of 6/1 seem skinny in light of his CV to date.

THESECRETADVERSAY (RPR 111) – improved significantly on his 2yo form to beat POWER BLUE at Leopardstown recording a career best RPR of 111 in the process. He is likely to appreciate the step up to 1 mile and at current best odds of 40/1 may just be the joker in the pack that outruns his price to reward each way support.

ZAVATERI (RPR 116) – surprise winner of the National Stakes beating GSTAAD by a head for which he was awarded his RPR of 116, but the form was reversed in the Dewhurst in no uncertain terms. He was beaten into second by ALPARSIAN in the Greenham Stakes where he could only muster a disappointing RPR of 106, which suggests that he may have already peaked during his first season.

Overall, I firmly believe that the Dewhurst Stakes form from last season may hold the key to finding the winner of the 2000 Guineas and I was initially keen to back GERWAN prior to his accident. Thereafter, GSTAARD was promoted to the top of my shortlist, but he is unbackable until a final decision is made on his participation in this race.

The other entry that I will be considering once the final field is known is THESECRETADVERSAY, as I believe that he could prove to be the surprise each way contender which regularly bears fruit in this race.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

With only two winning favourites and only one 3yo Group 1 class par performance during the past decade, it often pays to look beyond the obvious when considering potential bets in the 1000 Guineas.

There are currently 24 entries for the race, so here are my thoughts on the 8 candidates that have made my shortlist:

AZLEET (RPR 106) – recorded her best RPR when winning the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7 furlongs at Newmarket last week at 50/1. That was a huge 12 lbs improvement on her juvenile form, but still leaves her at the foot of my shortlist based on RPRs, whilst she may also struggle to see out the additional furlong.

DIAMOND NECKLACE (RPR 110) – remained unbeaten in 3 starts as a juvenile, culminating in victory in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. The form of that race did not appear particularly strong at the time and the subsequent defeat of the second and third home in classic trials in France this month has done nothing to change my opinion. It is also unlikely that Aidan O’Brien will declare all of the first 3 fillies in the betting market for the same race, which suggests that she may be the obvious candidate for the French equivalent.

EVOLUTIONIST (RPR 109) – showed consistent improvement in 4 starts as a 2yo, culminating in a solid third place finish (btn 4 1/4 lengths) behind PRECISE in the Group 1 Fillies Mile over the 1000 Guineas course and distance. She appears to have continued her upward curve by winning the Group 3 Prix de la Grotte over 1 mile at Longchamp on her seasonal debut, for which she was awarded her career best RPR for that effort, which ties in with DIAMOND NECKLACE as the have both beaten NARISSA by just over 2 lengths. She could end up returning to Longchamp for the French equivalent, but she holds fair each way claims if turning up at Newmarket in early May.

MY HIGHNESS (RPR 108) – recorded her best RPR when winning a Group 2 event at Deauville in August on her last start as a 2yo, but didn’t match that effort on her seasonal debut when finishing runner up in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. That said, French training legend, Andre Fabre rarely has his classic contenders fully wound up for their first run, whilst the step up to a mile is sure to suit this filly. Another with each way aspirations if she travels over from France.

PRECISE (RPR 114) – made rapid progress on each of her last 4 starts as a 2yo culminating in victories in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, followed by an even more impressive win in the Group 1 Fillies Mile, for which she was awarded her top RPR. Based on the latter effort she has the beating of EVOLUTIONIST and is the only 2yo filly last year to have achieved a Group 1 class par figure. She holds clear form claims in this race and is the current 9/4 favourite, but suffered a set back a few weeks ago, which is not the ideal preparation for making her seasonal debut.

THE PRETTIEST STAR (RPR 104) – only ran twice as a 2yo winning a Maiden at Nottingham and followed up with a second place finish in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes over 7 furlongs at Newmarket, albeit the third and fourth place finishers have not franked the form in their subsequent starts. I also have concerns that she may struggle to see out the mile, especially on her seasonal debut.

TRUE LOVE (RPR 112) – had a busy 2yo career winning thrice and finishing runner up thrice, with her only poor run coming on her last start over 5 furlongs at the Breeders Cup. Her best RPR was achieved when winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 6 furlongs at Newmarket. She appears to have trained on with a victory in the Group 3 Priory Belle Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown, where she gave the impression that she is likely to stay 1 mile. She may just be underrated by the betting market when compared to her stablemates, PRECISE and DIAMOND NECKLACE.

VENETIAN SUN (RPR 108) – was unbeaten in her first 4 starts over 6 furlongs last year, including a victory in the Group 1, Prix Morny where she beat GSTAAD by a short neck. That form was franked by both the runner up and third home WISE APPROACH, who both went on to win Group 1 events. However this filly was then subsequently beaten 2 1/2 lengths into third place behind PRECISE in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over 7 furlongs at the Curragh. Although she was staying on at the end of that race, her breeding suggests she may lack the stamina for 1 mile, especially on her first start of the season.

With doubts over my two favoured candidates turning up at Newmarket, this is not a race that I wish to get involved in at this stage, but I will closely monitor the Racing Post over the next few days in the hope that the trainers of EVOLUTIONIST and/or MY HIGHNESS confirm their intended targets.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have a feeling that it could turn out to be one of those weekends in which I struggle to find a worthwhile bet, despite having a number of tracker entries due to run over the next few days.

I was expecting to put up MONTREGARD for tomorrow in the Bet 365 Handicap Chase at Sandown after the gelding was a late withdrawal from the Scottish Grand National last Saturday, but his chance of winning this week’s race is only marginally better, yet he is trading at best odds of just 5/1 with just 4 each way places on offer, whilst I was able to secure 10/1 with 6 places last weekend, so no bet.

My other horses of interest all have question marks hanging over them, mainly due to the fact that they will be making their seasonal debuts and/or ground conditions may not be ideal, yet the betting markets do not appear to be taking account of these factors to a sufficient level to enable me to accept the risks.

I will post again on this thread, if I do find a decent investment, but I if not I will be monitoring the weekend results closely to identify further entries for my tracker, as this is the time of year to set the foundations for a hopefully profitable flat season.

Good luck to all readers for their bets over the weekend.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have been betting against JONBON all season with varying success and see no reason why that strategy today in the Group 1 Celebration Chase at Sandown.

He faces some fairly stiff opposition today, albeit like him they are really only Grade 2 performers, but that shows how weak this race is when compared with a true Grade 1 contest.

I am not even convinced that JONBON is capable of being placed and both Bet 365 and William Hill appear to agree as they have both significantly boosted his odds for a top 2 finish, which has allowed me to back him with both bookmakers, whilst guaranteeing a profit by laying him on the exchanges, as follows:

2.0 pts with Bet 365 @ 11/10, plus 2.0 pts with William Hill @ Evens returns 8.2 pts

3.85 pts lay with the exchanges returns 8.2 pts after 5% commission

Leaving me with 0,35 pts profit whatever the outcome – not a great return, but it keeps the scoreboard ticking over.

Betting bank now 105.74 pts (with 7.85 pts placed today)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well, the ‘Jump Finale’ meeting has turned into a damp squib both from a personal betting perspective and as a spectacle for the attendees at the track, due to the numerous late withdrawals caused by the quick ground.

The withdrawal of JONBON spoilt my guaranteed win, resulting in just a return of my stakes, whilst the two Grade 2 and the Grade 1 events were all won by horses that would are really nothing more than high class handicappers, so there is little chance of the form working out next season.

That said, it was heart warming to see the veteran EDWARDSTONE collect his fourth Grade 1 success at the grand old age of twelve.

I may have a couple of bets on the flat over the next few days, plus there a few that I am considering at Punchestown next week, once the final declarations have been made.

Betting bank now 113.59 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As promised I have found a worthwhile bet, albeit I have travelled all the way to Sha Tin, Hong Kong for the QE II Cup over 10 furlongs at 9.55 tomorrow morning before identifying a bit of value.

Although there are 8 runners in the race, 4 stand out on form, namely:

ROMANTIC WARRIOR – who is virtually unbeatable in middle distance races at this track and is by far the most likely winner.

MASQUERADE BALL – Japanese raider who has won at this trip, but may be better over further and has not raced for 147 days, so may need the run.

SOSIE – French raider who has Group 1 wins at around this trip, but seems best over further on good ground, as when winning over 12 furlongs at this track when last seen back in December.

ROYAL CHAMPION – 8yo British raider, trained by Karl Burke, who has produced his best form at this trip, including a career best RPR of 123 on his latest start when winning a Group 1 event in Saudi Arabia. He has a bit to find with his main rivals, but has been running consistently of late and is 6 lbs clear of the 4 remaining contenders. He therefore appears to be worth a bet for a top 4 finish.

2.0 pts for a top 4 finish @ 18/25 with Bet 365.

Betting bank now 111.59 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As expected, ROYAL CHAMPION was unable to finish ahead of his main 3 rivals, but he did beat his other 4 rivals to finish fourth, to secure a return of 3.44 pts, so a nice start to a bright Sunday morning.

Once again, the star of the show at Sha Tin was the unbelievable KA YING RISING, who brought his unbeaten run to an incredible 20 starts when finishing 4 1/4 lengths ahead of his nearest rival in the Group 1 sprint over 6 furlongs.

I have never added him to my tracker, despite the fact that he always produces an RPR well above the class par for a Group 1 sprinter, as there is little point in supporting a horse who inevitably starts at odds of 1/20 or shorter – his SP today was 1/100!!

However, whilst he is undoubtedly the best sprinter on the planet, he is not a machine and remains flesh and blood, which suggests that sooner or later he will have an off day and get beaten, so perhaps he should be added to the tracker as one to lay?

Perhaps, I am being either very courageous, or acting as a complete idiot, as he is only 5 years old and shows no sign of deteriorating at this stage of his career, so could easily rack up another 20 straight wins, but if I can get the timing right I should be able to profit by laying him each time he races, for initially small stakes, which gradually increase over time?

I will ponder this conundrum over the next few months, as he is unlikely to be seen again until September, so no rush to make a decision.

Betting bank now 115.03 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Nothing of interest for tomorrow, but I do have a selection for the 3.40 at Punchestown on Tuesday, which is a Listed Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles 1/2 furlong.

PUTAPOUNDINTHEJAR – I mentioned this gelding on this thread a while ago, suggesting that he would be of interest in a handicap hurdle at this meeting provided that Sean Bowen rode him and the plan has come together. They joined forces to win a lesser event last season at the Punchestown Festival and Sean Bowen was also in the saddle when the gelding recorded his career best RPR of 130 when finishing sixth in the Grade 3 Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in November. Since I added PUTAPOUNDINTHEJAR in my tracker he has won a low level handicap on the flat at Bellewstown, so is clearly in good form and an OR of 124 suggests that he is well treated compared with his career best RPR.

This feels like an old fashioned Tony Martin trained handicap plunge, so I have gone in early, as follows:

0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 5 places) @ 11/1 with Bet 365 ( Ladbrokes and Coral have him at 14/1, but my accounts with them were closed down some time ago).

Betting bank now 114.53 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

There was a marked contrast in the quality of the flat racing performances in the Group races at Sandown on Friday, when compared with the Graded jumps action on the following day, with all three winners recording class par RPRs for which they have been added to my tracker, as follows:

SADDADD – recorded a career best RPR of 119 when winning the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes over 10 furlongs. This was only his fifth start, suggesting that he should be capable of further improvement, but for now I have him down as being a solid Group 3 performer, who may be able of winning a weak Group 2 event.

OPERA BALOO – the Group 2 Bet 365 Mile looked to be a strong race on paper with 4 previous Group 1 winners and an unbeaten Group 2 miler in the field of 6 runners, so the fact that this Colt was able to win the race by a comfortable 3 lengths, despite carrying a 5 lbs penalty suggests that he has a very bright future. His career best winning RPR of 126 indicates, plus a previous Group 1 victory over 9 furlongs at Meydan suggests that he should be competitive at Group 1 level over 1 mile to 10 furlongs, especially when sent on his travels abroad.

RAAHEEB – stepped up significantly on his debut win in a Maiden at Ascot in September, to take the Group 3 Classic Trial over 10 furlongs by an easy 3 1/4 lengths. He was awarded a career best RPR of 113, which has only been equalled twice during the past decade. O have no doubt that he show further improvement as he gains experience, but for now he is worth considering in similar Group 3 events, or perhaps a weak Group 2.

I will provide my thoughts on the weekend action later this week, but in the meantime, I found it interesting that Betfred are offering a £2 million bonus for any horse that wins the Triple Crown, comprising of the 2000 Guineas, Epsom Derby and the St Leger, yet there is no mention of a bonus for any filly who is successful in the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and St Leger, which seems rather chauvinistic, or am I being too woke?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It is going to be a busy few days for me, as not only is there a plethora of top quality racing action to analyse for potential bets, but I also have the very pleasant distraction of the Cheltenham Jazz Festival which starts tomorrow, for which we have booked plenty of tickets for live performances – nice!!

Anyway here are my thoughts on the results from last weekend.

The ‘Jumps Finale’ meeting at Sandown, produced three very moderate winning performances in the Graded events, as follows:

DOYEN QUEST – won the Grade 2 chase with an RPR of just 145, which doesn’t even qualify as a class par figure for a Listed event and is likely to be difficult to place next season as his OR was increased 6 lbs to 149.

EDWARDSTONE- won the Group 1 Chase with an RPR of 160, which rates as a Listed/Grade 3 performance, but at the age of 12 he has surely done enough to earn what will hopefully be a long and happy retirement.

JINGKO BLUE – won the Grade 2 Hurdle with an RPR of 153, which rates as a Grade 3 performance, but with his current OR he is also likely to be difficult to place over hurdles, so perhaps his future will be over fences, where his already a Grade 2 winner.

Saturday also saw some interesting flat racing at Navan and although the winners of the Listed and Group 3 events for 3yos failed to achieve class par performances, it is worth mentioning SCANDINAVIA, who took the Listed Vintage Crop Stakes with an RPR of 118. He has been in my tracker for some time now and was a dual Group 1 winner last year, but his seasonal debut performance suggests that he is likely to make his presence felt in the top staying events, albeit I am not convinced that odds of 2/1 for him to win the Ascot Gold Cup offer any value at this stage.

Sunday saw the seasonal debut of last year’s Prix de L’Arc de Triumphe winner DARYZ in the Group 1 Prix Ganay at Longchamp. His finishing burst of speed to win by 3 1/2 lengths was highly impressive and whilst his RPR of 126 was 2 lbs lower than his career best figure, it suggests that he will be a major player in all the top Group 1 middle distance events this season, along with CALANDAGAN and OMBUDSMAN.

The chance that they will all face each other at some stage is a fantastic prospect.

As a rule, I don’t take much notice of Class 4 handicaps for 3yos, but the last race at Sandown on Friday may prove to be a very strong event, from which I have taken the winner, LOST BOYS and runner up, INTO THE LIGHT as additions to my tracker, as I have a feeling that the BHA Handicapper may have underrated thei performances, in which case they may be worthing considering next time out.

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I do believe you are one of the few people I know who genuinely still enjoys the game of “cat and mouse” with the old enemy. ? Royal Champion was a nice return for you the other day and takes you into a useful profit as unlike myself you are a sensible punter and cannot lose it all in one roll of the dice….lol. Also (just for your information) it has take a while but I think a few of your old followers have latched onto this thread as you now have an increasing number of regular visitors as opposed to random ones and they appear to be new contacts.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Money be damned, punting is all about having fun and my biggest thrill is getting one over on the bookmakers!!

It is good to hear that more visitors are reading my posts and hopefully getting something out of this thread, if only understanding the need to be thorough and only bet when the odds are in your favour.

That said, it would be a real bonus if some of the regular visitors signed up to the site and shared their ideas on this thread, or raised questions regarding my approach, as I am a great believer in the power of discussion to improve performance.

We can all learn from the experiences of other like minded punters and let’s not forget there is no such thing as stupid questions, only idiotic answers!!

Anyway, back to business – PUTAPOUNDINTHEJAR was supported in the market and was backed down to 6/1, but could only finish fifth, although that was enough to produce a return of 0.8 pts, so a small profit on the day.

I was keen to back my theory that INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN is a Spring horse, as 4 of his top 5 RPRs have been achieved from mid March onwards, which suggests that he should hopefully outrun his odds in the Punchestown Gold Cup at 6.05 tomorrow.

However, I was hoping that he would be ridden by Mark Walsh who seems to bring out the best in this enigmatic chaser, whereas Keith Donoghue is in the saddle, who is also a top jockey, but has yet to finish in the first 3 from 5 attempts.

I shall therefore keep my powder dry and start assessing Thursday’s race cards.

Betting bank now 115.33 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Inothewayurthinkin was I must admit one of my not so clever suggestions for a competition TFT horse this year but you never know now the ground has changed. ? Enjoy your few days at the festival I used to manage a shop in Brecon and the Jazz Festival (when they allowed it through the streets) was an experience I will never forget.
However, Health and Safety and Jazz Festivals will never mix, it must be 20 years ago George Melly was a regular festival visitor then and true story he fell over and broke a bone in his hand and had his arm in sling but told me the reason he was really embarrassed was he had been sober at the time….lol.
That’s it inspired now its Bunny Berigan in the car when I go to pick my computer up, have a great day out. !!!!

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I am almost tempted by the 4/6 for a top 3 finish that Bet 365 are offering on INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, but will abstain as I rarely make money when making snap decisions.

As for the Jazz Festival, the name is a bit of a misnomer, as I wouldn’t class many of the acts we are seeing as being jazz orientated, but a I guess the name differentiates the festival from the classical music festivals which is held later this year.

As we only live a short walk from the venues, we will also be dipping in and out of the free events, as well as attending the ticketed concerts, so my posts will be a little sporadic.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Nothing to get the blood racing today at Punchestown, but I have taken advantage of Boylesports boosted odds of 8/11 on KOPEK DES BORDES to win the 5.25, which I then layed on the exchanges, just to keep the scoreboard ticking over, as follows:

2.0 pts @ 8/11 for a return of 3.45 pts

1.15 pts lay on the exchanges for a return of 3.45 pts after commission.

Guaranteed profit 0.3 pts

Betting bank 112.18 (with 3.15 pts outlay for today)

All the best,

Rob.

[Author]

Posts