QUALITY RACING 2026

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Having watch the racing at York today, it appears that the low drawn horses have a significant advantage in the sprint races.

On that basis and in the hope that this advantage does not disappear overnight, I have a selection in the 2.20 at York tomorrow, which is a class 2 handicap over 5 furlongs.

ETERNAL SUNSHINE needs a bit of explaining based on the form she has shown so far this season, as she has finished unplaced on both starts and was tailed off last time (btn 41 lengths), when the vet reported that she was suffering from an irregular heartbeat. However, hopefully she is fully recovered, as she always needs her first couple of runs after the winter break and tends to run well on her third start of the season. She has plenty of high class form in big field sprint handicaps, including victory in the class 2 Portland Handicap at Doncaster last September, whilst her 2 attempts over tomorrow’s course and distance have been rewarded with a second place finish (19 ran) and a third place finish (18 ran), so she clearly handles the demands of this very easy sprint track. She is drawn in stall 3 and may well be able to dominate against the rail as she has a tendency to front run and she has the benefit of her regular 5lb claiming jockey Lauren Young in the saddle, which reduces burden to a very manageable 8 stone 5 lbs.

0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places) with Bet 365 @ 22/1

Betting bank now 114.18 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

ETERNAL SUNSHINE could only finish could only finish 13th of the 21 runners, however the failed bet on her is the perfect set up for what I want to cover off in this post.

It would be difficult to make up the story of the race prior to the event, as the previous day’s results had indicated that high drawn runners were benefiting from a significant draw bias, linked to the far side of the track having the fastest ground. This resulted in 15 of the 21 runners making a dash for the far side, suggesting that sometimes jockeys act like sheep and herd together. However, the going stick readings on the morning of the race suggested that there was little difference in respect of underfoot conditions across the whole of the track and the eventual winner was one of 6 runners who raced up the near side of centre, ably assisted by Jamie Spencer, who in truth is one of the master tacticians when it comes to finding an edge for his mounts in races over straight tracks.

To be honest, despite ETERNAL SUNSHINE having contracted in price during the morning, I was pretty resigned to the fact that she was unlikely to prevail, as in my haste to find a selection in the race at big odds, I had missed a fundamental pattern in her historic form, that being that she tended to produce her best results when returning to the racetrack within a fortnight of her previous race, whereas she had been rested for around 1 month this time. This was a schoolboy error for which I apologise if anyone followed my example and backed this mare.

However, the failure of ETERNAL SUNSHINE has highlighted a couple of issues which I need to address urgently.

Time is a finite entity, as there are only 24 hours per day and I am struggling to keep up with everything I need to do to be a knowledgeable, marginally successful punter, especially during the period from mid April to the end of October, when there is plenty of competition for my time.

Late Autumn and Winter is never so bad, as there are invariably plenty of cold/wet days when it is best to stay warm and dry at home, allowing me plenty of time to keep up to speed with my punting interests, but during the season of better weather, everything turns manic.

I don’t want to stop betting over during this period, as I enjoy the challenges of finding winners on the flat just as much as analysing national hunt racing, but I do need to specialise so that I can concentrate on a specific set of races to make the most of the limited time available to me.

If I am to specialise, ideally I want to get as much “bang for my buck” as possible, so I have spent quite a considerable time since Thursday afternoon reviewing my flat race betting records for the past few years, which was something that I should have done a lot sooner.

The results of this review, where eye opening to say the least, as I have been haemorrhaging losses on sprint races up to and including 7 furlongs, whilst I have barely broken even over 8/9 furlongs, but my profits in races over 10 furlongs, or further have saved the day by covering the sprint losses and giving me a reasonable overall profit.

The decision on where I should specialise was therefore easy to make and from now on I will concentrate my limited time over the Summer months on races over at least 10 furlongs.

My betting records are not sufficiently detailed for me to provide a full explanation for the identified results, but I suspect that draw and pace biases in races over shorter distances on straight tracks are probably a major influence, whilst I have always thought that RPRs are more robust as an indicator of ability in longer races, with a sweet spot between 10 and 16 furlongs.

To ensure that I keep to this new regime, I shall now go on to my tracker and delete all entries for horses that have achieved their qualifying RPRs in races over less than 10 furlongs.

I hope to return tomorrow with a review of last week’s action.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Damn and blast, or words to that effect!!

The Racing Post have again implemented new format racecards, which remain horrible in my opinion and what is worse i have again lost all my notes on forthcoming races, so will have to reconstruct my analysis for the third time!!

I am really not a happy bunny this time, but will return with my thoughts on last week’s action, once i have stopped beating my head against the proverbial brickwall.

I hope readers are having a better day.

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
It took me thirty years to do the same hence most all of our racing is now Irish Hurdle Racing. We are actually looking at extending this to include NHF so there is a possibility we will overlap somewhere. ? As for April to the end of October tell me about it I spend most of my time in the garden but strangely stepping away from the computer screen and racing papers is usually where I get most of my off the wall ridiculous ideas from.
As an example I was chatting with Steve about the problems of the ground conditions and then when re-potting some plants came up with the ridiculous idea of how long horses actually spend in contact with the ground etc (that will be on the Bletchley Park thread next..lol).
Also as for being a “marginally successful punter” in all the years I have known or followed your work I don’t seem to remember you not come out on the plus side. ?

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

It is only since I retired that I have attempted to cover all flat racing, but clearly there is just too much going on to be able to sustain this strategy, so reversion to the specialism that I adopted whilst still at work appears to be the sensible way forward, especially as I appear to achieve my best results in longer races.

Hopefully, the adoption of this strategy will improve my profitability ranking from marginal to moderate, based on my own standards, now that I will not be backing so many losers trying to make sense of unfathomable sprint races.

As for National Hunt flat races, I guess the only overlaps will be either when a young horse records a class par RPR in a Listed, or Graded Bumper, or very occasionally when a useful Bumper performer is given the chance to race on the flat.

I will give the latest Bletchley Park idea some thought, but it may take a few days for me to respond.

In the meantime, here are my thoughts on the flat action during the past week.

The Dante meeting at York, produced 3 class par performances, as follows:

LEGACY LINK – this 3yo filly justified favouritism to win the Group 3, Musidora Stakes over 10.5 furlongs on her seasonal debut, for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 111. Her breeding suggests that she should appreciate a further step up in trip, in which case she has leading claims in the Epsom Oaks.

FELICITAS – pushed LEGACY LINK hard until her stamina seemed to ebb in the last 100 yards, but still ran well to finish runner up with an RPR of 109. Unlike the winner, her pedigree suggests that this 3yo filly is unlikely to appreciate further and will probably be aimed at the Prix Diane.

ITEM – 3yo colt who maintained his unbeaten record on his seasonal debut with a comfortable victory in the Group 2, Dante Stakes over 10.5 furlongs. He was awarded a career best RPR of 118 for his victory, which puts him in the mix for the Epsom Derby and is likely to prove to be the biggest obstacle in the way of Aidan O’Brien winning the race yet again.

Moving on to Newbury on Saturday:

KALPANA – 5yo filly who just held on to win the Group 3, Aston Park Stakes over 12 furlongs, on her seasonal debut for which she was awarded a joint career best RPR of 123. She has won the last two G1 Filly and Mares events at Ascot in October, but probably just lack the class to win at the highest level in open company.

WEST WIND BLOWS – 7yo gelding who just failed to reach KALPANA, but still recorded a joint career best RPR of 118, albeit he was receiving 4 lbs from the winner. He has achieved 18 top 3 finishes from 22 career starts, but only 4 victories, so he is likely to be more of an each way/place proposition in the future.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have two tracker entries running at Longchamp tomorrow evening.

DARYZ takes on 4 rivals in the Group 1, Prix Aga Khan IV at 6.33 pm and if reproducing the devastating finish that saw him victorious on his seasonal debut in the Group 1 Prix Ganay over 10.5 furlongs at this track at the end of April, he should win. However, this race is over just 9 .5 furlongs and he has never competed over such a short trip, which makes me wary, especially as his current odds of 2/5 are rather short, when considering that his main market rival SOSIE was successful in this event last year.

CABALLO DE MAR has 8 rivals to compete with in the Group 1, Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (7.50 pm) over 1 mile 7.5 furlongs and is only rated fourth best in the field based on adjusted RPRs. This is a tight race as only 7 lbs covers the entire field, however CABALLO DE MAR does have plenty of points in his favour, as he appears to be on an upward curve having recorded his 4 highest RPRs from his last 5 starts, including a career best effort last time out when finishing runner up in the Group 3, Sagaro Stakes at Ascot. He has also won at this level at Longchamp, albeit that was in the Prix du Cadran over 2 miles 4 furlongs, whilst he appears to be fairly tolerant of underfoot conditions as his 2.best efforts have been achieved on very soft and good to firm ground. He will probably need another career best effort to win this event, but with a few doubts surrounding some of his rivals in respect of fitness, stamina and ground conditions, he has fair claims of finishing in the top 4.

0.5 pts win @ 8/1, plus 0.5 pts for a top 4 finish @ evens with Bet 365 (which is better than their boosted Each Way Extra odds of 5/1 for 4 places).

Betting bank 113.18 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Two winners from two bets but especially well done with Caballo De Mar (that was some finish to a race with five across the track as they crossed the line). Also duly noted that the race distance ties in with your previous posts about the way forward.
It would appear the tipping on here has gone crazy lately with the eventual SP of your Caballo De Mar being 18-1 and Steve on the In for a penny in for a pound thread pulling in a hatful of double figure winners @ 16-1 etc I will have to put my gardening tools back in the shed and get busy….lol.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Although I mentioned that it was likely to be a tight race, I never imagined that just 1/2 length would separate the first 5 home, which meant that whilst I hit the jackpot this time, I could easily have ended up losing my stake. It just goes to show that margins can be very tight when betting on the flat, even in races over almost 2 miles.

CABALLO DE MAR provided a return of 5.50 pts, but in hindsight perhaps I should have recommended that the win portion of the bet be placed on the PMU, as it was highly unlikely that the partisan French punters would go for a relatively unfancied British trained runner, as 18.4/1 would have been far better than the mere 8/1 available with Bet 365 – still you never quite know what is going to happen when you bet into a pool.

I have no selection for today, or tomorrow, but may have something for Sunday, as I have identified 4 races that pique my interest, albeit available time to complete my deliveryis again against me, as I have a classical music concert tonight and a full day of steam trains tomorrow at our local heritage railway’s bank holiday extravaganza, not to mention the monthly local street market on Sunday.

Better start doing my homework now!!

Betting bank 118.68 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just got back from a day of steam trains, to find that Bet 365 may have been too generous with their early odds for one of the horses I have recently added to my tracker.

KINGSTONIAN runs in the 5.40 at the Curragh tomorrow, in a 27 runner handicap over 1 mile 6 furlongs. He was added to my tracker when recording a career best RPR of 100 for finishing runner up in the Class 2, Chester Plate Handicaps on his seasonal/stable debut a couple of weeks ago, for which the official Irish handicapper has only nudged his rating up by 3 lbs to what appears to be a very generous figure of 89.

I was expecting this Joseph O’Brien 4yo gelding to be sent off at short odds (around 7/2) for this handicap, so the 11/2 currently available with Bet 365 appears to be a couple of points better than I had anticipated.

0.5 pts each way(1/5 odds for 6 places( with Bet 365 @ 11/2

Betting bank now 117.68 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Although, as predicted KINGSTONIAN was heavily backed to be sent off the 10/3 favourite for yesterday’s race, he weakened in the final furlong to only finish ninth of the 24 runners, so no return on my investment. I still believe that he is a well handicapped horse, but perhaps he needs to race a little less prominently, as he led for the first mile, which is not an ideal tactic over staying trips.

I will be proving the usual review of last week’s action in a day or so once I have fully digested all of the results, but in the meantime I thought it would be appropriate to share my initial shortlist for the Epsom Oaks, which is to be run a week next Friday.

There are currently 16 entries, although there is a chance for fillies to be supplemented for the race on 30 May, but I have whittled these down to a shortlist of 4 entries, using a few suitable trends.

AMELIA EARHART – is just about holding on to favouritism and is currently trading at odds of 5/2. She has won 2 of her 6 career starts, including the Listed, Cheshire Oaks over 11.5 furlongs at Chester last time, for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 101. The form of this race is difficult to assess, as the runner up I’M THE ONE was as green as grass on only her second career start and the RPR awarded is very much at the low end of the spectrum of past Oaks winners during the past decade. In addition, I am concerned that she is rather quirky and was equipped with both a hood and blinkers for her latest victory, which is a very rare mix of headgear, as the hood should calm her, whilst the blinkers generally sharpen up the wearer.

CAMEO – comfortably won the Listed, Lingfield Oaks Trial over 11.5 furlongs, by 4 3/4 lengths for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 105. This was her second victory from 6 career starts and a significant step up on what she had achieved over shorter distances, but her RPR is again slightly lower than a typical winner of the Epsom Oaks over the past decade.

PRECISE – is the third filly trained by Aidan O’Brien to make the shortlist and is certainly the classiest entry in the Epsom Oaks, having won 5 of her 7 career starts, including 3 Group 1 victories. She has been well backed for this race since winning the Irish 1000 Guineas yesterday afternoon, but she has yet to race over further than 8 furlongs and her pedigree is not necessarily suited for a step up to 12 furlongs, as her sire STARSPANGLEDBANNER was a multiple Group 1 winner over 5 to 8 furlongs, who has a relatively poor record with his progeny over distances in excess of 10 furlongs.

K SARRA – is the only filly to make the shortlist that is not trained by Aidan O’Brien, but her handler Ralph Beckett has an excellent record in the Epsom Oaks. She could only finish third in the Group 3, Musidora Stakes at York over 10.5 furlongs on her latest start, for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 106. However, that was only her third career start and she was very green throughout the race until the last 1.5 furlongs, when she appeared to buckle down and was closing on the first two in the final furlong. She ran as if she would improve for the step up to 12 furlongs.

Although Aidan O’Brien holds a strong hand in his attempt to improve on his record of 6 victories in this race over the past decade, my preference at this stage would be for K SARRA, although I will hold off backing her until the final declarations have been made, as there is always a chance that she may not run and I doubt that her odds will shorten significantly in the meantime.

I will provide similar analysis for the Epsom Derby, later this week.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As promised here are my thoughts for the Epsom Derby.

It has not been an easy piece of analysis, as the picture is complicated by he state of flux caused primarily by the number of Aidan O’Brien trained entries, many of whom are also potential runners in the French Derby which will be run on Sunday.

However, from the current 22 entries for Epsom, I have a provisional shortlist of 6, which includes a few surprises, as follows:

ACTION – has only a Galway Maiden victory to his name from 6 career starts, but has since performed creditably in four Group events, including finishing runner up to ITEM last time in the Group 2, Dante Stakes over 10.5 furlongs at York. He was awarded an RPR of 112 for that effort, which is 3 lbs below his career best figure, which suggests that he may have reached his ceiling for now, however it is difficult to totally dismiss his chance of producing a surprise in the Derby, as he has the potential to be used as a pacemaker for his more fancied stablemates. It would not be the first time that an Aidan O’Brien trained pacemaker was allowed an easy lead and was able to stay on to cause a surprise result.

BAY OF BRILLIANCE – showed fair form as a 2yo winning a Maiden and a Novice event from 3 starts, but improved for a step up in trip when finishing runner up (btn a neck) by MALTESE CROSS in the Listed, Lingfield Derby Trial over 11.5 furlongs on his seasonal debut. He recorded a career best RPR of 109 for that effort, which places him firmly in the picture for Epsom, especially as he should strip fitter on his second start of the season.

BENVENUTO CELLINI – has been favourite for the Derby since demolishing a weak field on his seasonal debut in the Group 3, Chester Vase over 12.5 furlongs. He was awarded a career best RPR of 115 for that effort, but that still leaves him needing to find further improvement when compared with ITEM’s figure in the Dante Stakes. Unless his stablemate CONSTITUTION RIVER is rerouted from the French Derby, this colt is probably Aidan O’Brien’s best hope of recording yet another Derby victory, although it is interesting that ACTION has the same career best RPR and finished ahead of him when they filled the minor places in the Group 1, Futurity Trophy at Doncaster last October.

ITEM – remains unbeaten after 3 career starts, including victory in the Group 2, Dante Stakes, in which he beat ACTION by 2 3/4 lengths. He recorded a career best RPR of 118 for this victory, which will make him the highest rated runner in the race, unless CONSTITUTION RIVER turns up, whilst further improvement is highly likely on just his fourth start. However, he did edge left under pressure at York, which could prove problematic if this tendency reoccurs when challenging wide up the home straight at Epsom.

MALTESE CROSS – has won his last 3 starts after finishing runner up on his career debut, including victory in the Listed, Lingfield Derby Trial over 11.5 furlongs, where he just held on from BAY OF BRILLIANCE. His winning RPR of 110 was a career best effort, but he did have a fitness advantage over the runner up and in my opinion is not guaranteed to confirm the form this time.

PROPOSITION – won a Maiden at Galway over 7 furlongs on his second start as a juvenile, but improved on that effort when finishing a well beaten runner up behind stablemate BENVENUTO CELLINI in the Chester Vase, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 104. That figure is well below the average pre race rating required to win the Epsom Derby, but higher than those recorded by the Aidan O’Brien trained WINGS OF EAGLES and SERPENTINE, who were both surprise winners at big odds.

As with the Epsom Oaks, I don’t intend to place any bets until the final declarations have been made, however I am hoping that on the day of the race, one of my bookmakers will offer a match bet between BAY OF BRILLIANCE and MALTESE CROSS, as I firmly believe that the Lingfield form will be turned around.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

From my perspective, there were four noteworthy performances over the past week, as follows:

DARYZ – had little difficulty sweeping aside a couple of useful previous top level winners to take the Group 1, Prix Aga Khan over 9.5 furlongs at Longchamp on Thursday. His resultant RPR of 128 was equal to his previous best figure which was achieved in last year’s Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, suggesting that he is just as effective over distances short of 12 furlongs. It will be interesting to see how he gets on when up against OMBUDSMAN and/or his stablemate CALANDAGAN who have both recorded slightly higher career best RPRs of 130 and 131 respectively.

The other 3 performances were achieved at the Curragh on Saturday:

PURVIEW – produced an impressive turn of foot to win the Listed, Orby Stakes over 12 furlongs by an eased down 6 lengths on his seasonal debut. He was awarded a career best RPR of 121 for this effort on his first attempt at racing over further than 10.5 furlongs and he clearly has a bright future over middle distances, albeit for now he has entered my tracker as worth considering when racing below Group 1 level.

CAUSEWAY – just held on by a head to win the Group 3, Gallinule Stakes over 10 furlongs for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 113. He has now won his last 4 starts since finishing fourth on his career debut and has recorded improved RPRs on each visit to the racecourse, so is clearly progressive and may well have more to give as he raced lazily in the closing stages in this event.

ZIA ZABELL – almost caught CAUSEWAY, despite wandering around due to inexperience in the final furlong. He recorded a career best RPR of 112, on his first attempt over 10 furlongs, which is 22 lbs better than his previous best figure, suggesting that he should be capable of winning at Listed/Group 3 level, provided that this performance is not just a flash in the pan.

I may have something for tomorrow as I have a tracker entry for Yarmouth, plus a few potential horses of interest at Sandown, so will return later this evening if I can find some worthwhile value in the betting markets.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Unfortunately, I have nothing for today after all.

My runner of interest at Yarmouth is far too short in the betting, as are both SWEET WILLIAM and OMBUDSMAN at Sandown, neither of which are guaranteed to shoulder their respective penalties.

OMBUDSMAN is the second highest rated flat racehorse in my tracker with a career best RPR of 130, but the concatenation of the maximum 7 lbs penalty, plus his defeat in the race last year and the update from his trainers John and Thady Gosden, that this race is very much a stepping stone to get the horse to peak fitness for his attempt to win back to back Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot means that he is probably priced up correctly at around 4/6, which also negates the possibility of laying him.

I did have two other tracker entries in the Brigadier Gerrard Stakes, but ALMERIC in my opinion needs slow ground to produce his best form, which he will not get at sun baked Sandown, whilst I have missed the chance to support GETHIN, due to my lack of urgency to get my bets placed.

The betting markets are constantly evolving and I have found over the past couple of years that many of the horses that I wish to back are only available at value odds soon after the markets are first formed, usually on the afternoon after the final declarations have been published, as they soon tend to attract interest from other value seeking punters, which shortens the odds, even before the bookmakers suck out any remaining edge at the time they offer best odds guaranteed.

GETHIN is a case in point, as my intention was to back him in the win market with a quarter of my overall stake and the place the remaining 75% on him to record a top 3 finish in this 6 runner field, thus maximising my chance of at least making a small profit if he wins, but minimising the risk of losing my total stake.

On Tuesday afternoon, I his odds were 9/2 in the win market and 4/7 in the top 3 finish market, which would have provided a bit of value when compared with my estimation that he has around a 20% chance of winning and a 67% chance of a top 3 finish, but for one reason, or another I kept finding other things to do and he soon started shortening in both market, with his current odds now down to 3/1 and 2/9 , respectively.

Are any readers finding that they have a similar problem when attempting to find value in the current betting markets?

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
With regard to the finding value it has become ridiculous of late as none of the array of bookmakers that are available are prepared to stand there ground. Usually within an hour of them all posting they are all in line like a little row of soldiers.
I as you know am a seat of the pants punter rather than a professional but lately the odds available early doors have restricted a lot of our selections. The (early) extra markets and exchange markets are atrocious hence the idea of myself taking a whole race on and being the first to post on the betfair exchange (by using our own tissue odds before the old enemy posts) seems a crazy but fun idea. ?
I know it is a ridiculous idea (hence the thread it will be posted on) but although the outlay to cover the markets would be a few hundred it would be fun to try it.
I am sure you all remember the buzz of sticking your head above the trenches you are either a hero or you end up six foot under but if “The Mountain won’t come to Mohammed then Mohammed must go the mountain”….lol.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I don’t have the courage to take on the exchange punters nowadays, in the way you are suggesting, as there are just too many ‘value thieves’ on the site that have been kicked out by the bookmaking community for winning money.

Instead, I shall just remain patient and wait for the opportunity to make a few quid when the bookmakers underestimate a horse that I believe offers a bit of value, as with my selection for tomorrow.

I don’t usually stoop as low as Class 4 handicaps, but I added the Alan King trained dual purpose gelding BELIEVEITANDUCAN to my tracker after he won a Class 4 handicap over 2 miles, earlier this month. He appeared to win with more in hand than the 1 1/4 lengths margin suggests and yet the BHA handicapper only raised his OR by 4 lbs to 77, whilst he was awarded a career best RPR of 88, which suggests that he remains dangerously well handicapped. To support this idea further a comparison of his Flat and Hurdles ORs of 77 and 123, suggests that he has something in the region of 6 lbs in hand on the flat. The real clincher was the write up he was given in the Racing Post ‘Ahead of the Handicapper’ article that suggested that runners with an RPR 11 lbs ahead of their OR have historically won 75% of their next starts.

He runs tomorrow in the 2.53 at Chester, which is another Class 4 event over 2 miles and whilst his odds are not spectacular they appear to offer considerable value, if he runs to form and the RP assessment of a 75% winning chance is correct, albeit I will not be throwing caution to the wind and will be seeking a modest return, as follows:

0.25 pts win @ 9/4, plus 0.75 pts for a top 3 finish @ 8/11 both with Bet 365 (Betfair and Skybet have opened up at 7/4)

All the best,

Rob.

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