QUALITY RACING 2026

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have another selection for tomorrow at shortish odds in the 8.30 at Ballinrobe which is a 1m5f handicap for fillies and mares.

SWITCH FROM DIESEL won a 23 runner maiden event at the Curragh back last November on her only start on the flat, for which she was only awarded an RPR of 74. However she has been in fine form over hurdles recently winning a maiden and a novice event both at Punchestown and previously had strong form in Irish National Hunt Flat Races. She makes her handicap debut on the flat off an OR of 80, which appears fairly stiff on what she achieved at the Curragh, but when compared to her hurdling OR of 125 and her career best RPRs in both INHF races 126 and hurdles 131, she probably has somewhere in the region of 10 – 15 lbs in hand.

0.25 pts win @ 15/8, plus 0.75 pts for a top 3 finish @ 10/21, both with Bet 365.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I was recently asked by a friend, who assures me that he regularly reads this thread, why I keep adding horses to my tracker, but rarely offer these horses as selections when they race?

It is a good question and it is probably about time that I explain to readers how I use the tracker.

Each of my tracker entries relate to horses that have achieved strong (Class Par) performances in relation to the grade of the qualifying race in which they ran, plus my thoughts in respect of the conditions required by the horse to produce a similar RPR in the future.

Often, the race conditions are not ideal for the horse when it next appears, as it may be stronger event, or over a suboptimal distance, or the underfoot conditions may be less than ideal.

In addition, there may be one or more rivals in the race who hold stronger claims, suggesting that even if my tracker horse runs to form, he is unlikely to achieve a profitable outcome.

Finally, there is the question of value, as I have to believe that the odds on offer underestimate the horse, whether that be in the win, or place markets.

Therefore, I will only back a tracker horse when all three of the above requirements appear to be in my favour, which regrettably doesn’t happen that often.

I hope their brief explanation helps readers to understand my process for selecting bets on residents of my tracker.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

SWITCH FROM DIESEL probably wasn’t as well handicapped as I had hoped, but her third place finish did provide a small profit of 0.11. Pts, so at least the betting bank balance is still going forwards, albeit painfully slowly.

On the basis that she lost 2 places in the final 110 yards, I am inclined to add her to my tracker as a well handicapped mare for when she races over a shorter distance.

My thoughts regarding last week’s results from Royal Ascot are as follows:

OMBUDSMAN was the undoubted star of the show, as his stunning 4 lengths victory in the Group 1, Prince of Wales’s Stakes over 10 furlongs was rewarded with a career best RPR of 133, which is the highest figure achieved by any runner in Europe so far this season.

SCANDINAVIA also recorded a career best RPR of 123 for his victory in the Ascot Gold Cup, but he was made to work hard by last year’s winner TRAWLERMAN, who was only denied by a head in the final strides.

TRAWLERMAN may have been unfairly treated based on his RPR of 121, as he was giving the winner 1 lb and was probably not fully match fit on his seasonal debut – I would have also awarded him an RPR of 123, which is in line with his winning figure last year.

It will be interesting to watch who prevails when the next meet, perhaps at Goodwood.

I only have 3 new entries for the tracker, as follows:

MAP OF STARS – French trained 5yo gelding who was successful in the Listed, Wolferton Stakes over 10 furlongs, for which he was awarded an RPR of 118. Although, he has previously won a Group 2, I am inclined to mark him for consideration in Group 3 events or lower at around 10 furlongs on good, or faster ground.

WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE – 4yo colt, who finished runner up in the same race, recording a career best RPR of 117 in the process. He has been difficult to follow in the past, due to his poor win to place ratio, with just 2 victories from 10 top 3 finishes, amongst his 14 career starts. However, he is probably worth considering in Group 3, or Listed races at around 10 furlongs on good,or faster ground.

GIAVELLOTTO – 7yo horse who just prevailed by a short head in the Group 2, Hardwicke Stakes over 12 furlongs on Saturday. He recorded a joint career best RPR of 123 for his victory, which suggests that this is his level, albeit he may be worth considering in weak Group 1 events in the US, or more likely Hong Kong, where he recorded his only top flight success last December.

Betting bank now 118.21 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I hope everyone is managing to keep reasonably cool in the exceptionally hot weather that we are encountering this week – Cheltenham is already sizzling in the sunshine and could reach temperatures of 38 Celsius tomorrow afternoon!!

I must admit that yesterday’s heat caused me to become a bit lethargic, as I missed the opportunity to back DARK WINE SEA in the Cumberland Plate (5.05) at Carlisle, when Bet 365 went 3/1 on their opening show. The form of his class 3 handicap win at Ascot on his seasonal debut has been franked by the third, fourth and sixth placed runners in that race as the have each gone on to win class 2 events, suggesting that the initial 3/1 was an absolute steal.

He is now trading at a shade of odds on, albeit after the withdrawal of the second favourite, which in my book is too short, so it will be interesting to see how he fares in the race.

I may have a selection for tomorrow at Leicester, but as always my final decision will be based on whether I can secure a bit of value.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I thought that DARK WINE SEA was nicely treated at Carlisle, but not in my wildest dreams did I expect him to win the historic Cumberland Plate by 13 lengths.

I do have a selection at Leicester in the 8.15 tomorrow.

CAPTAIN CAIRNEY finished runner up (btn 1/2 length) behind the reopposing BRADBURY over the course and distance on his seasonal debut, last time out. This time he is 7 lbs better off with that rival who has since won again at Wetherby and whilst his win odds of 11/4 do not offer massive riches if he is successful, he does provide a bit of value as I have him as a 9/4 shot.

0.25 win @ 11/4, plus 0.75 pts for a top 3 finish @ 4/9, both with Bet 365.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

CAPTAIN CAIRNEY was declared a non runner early this morning, so no bet.

There is a relatively strong staying handicap at the Curragh (7.55) on Friday, in which TOO BOSSY FOR US has strong claims.

Willie Mullins’ 5yo gelding finished runner up to a stablemate in this race last year and can race off a 1 lb lower mark this time around. His current OR of 88 appears fair when compared with his best RPR of 93 since joining this stable and is a massive 50 lbs lower than his hurdles figure, albeit the form on which that has been based is a little suspect.

0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 4 places) @ 9/2 with Bet 365

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

We are attending a charity horse racing evening tonight and I have volunteered to manage the Tote (seems only fair, as I have been to so many of these events over the years, that I can remember some of the results of the races on the CD that is being used), so with over 200 tickets having been sold for the event, I guess the team of 6 volunteer cashiers including yous truly are going to be pretty busy.

For one evening only, the poacher has turned gamekeeper.

Back to reality, I have spent plenty of time today, trying to find a decent reason not to back SYNERGISM in tomorrow’s Northumberland Plate at Newcastle, as I try to steer clear of Sir Mark Prescott’s runners in high value handicaps, as they rarely win, but are often backed as if defeat is out of the question.

However, SYNERGISM appears to be a different “kettle of fish”, as whilst on form he appears to hold sound claims (career best RPR of 96 last time out) and his OR of 89 seems fair, plus he has been allotted a reasonable draw in stall 9, he has not been backed off the boards (yet), unlike some of his rivals who have dramatically shortened in the market over the past couple of weeks.

So whilst I am still getting that niggling feeling that I should either be looking elsewhere, or giving the race up as too difficult, I have placed an albeit tentative bet as follows:

0.25 pts win @ 14/1, plus 0.75 pts for a top 10 finish @ 8/11, both with Bet 365.

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Nice to see you are up and about again. As to the “poacher has turned gamekeeper” we all need to do that more often as it is only by knowing your enemy strength that you spot their weakness.
Enjoy your evening out.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Thanks, I am fighting fit now and we enjoyed our night out, which was hard work for the ‘Tote’ cashiers and myself, as we took just over £8k of bets across the 6 races of which 25% was retained for the charity, so hopefully a good time was had by all.

Unfortunately, TOO BOSSY FOR US could only finish sixth at the Curragh, but would probably have sneaked a place had he now been bumped when making his challenge with just under a couple of furlongs to run.

However, SYNERGISM did manage a third place finish which was enough to produce a profit of 0.29 pts, so not all doom and gloom this weekend.

Betting bank now 117.50 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just one new entrant for the tracker this week.

BOTAGOZ – was the only 3yo running in the Group 3, Hoppings Fillies Stakes over 10 furlongs at Newcastle on Friday evening, but she showed plenty of spirit to just reel in last year’s winner DANCING RAIN in the dying strides. She has now won 3 of her 4 career starts and appeared to need every yard of this event, so there is every chance that she can find further improvement when stepped up in trip. She was awarded a career best RPR of 110 for this performance, which suggest that she should be worth following in future fillies and mares events at Group 2 and below.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The main reason that causes me to steer clear of low grade races is that the runners tend to be rather inconsistent and it is almost impossible to know whether they will run to form, or put in a poor performance.

That accusation cannot be raised against the 6yo mare, STINTINO SUNSET, who has been a model of consistency throughout her career on turf, having never finished worse than fifth in any of her 23 previous races. With only 2 victories to her name on turf, she is an unlikely winner of the Class 6 handicap over 1 mile 4 furlongs at Epsom (7.32), but her overall consistency, plus 4 placed finishes from 4 attempts at hillside tracks (Bath, Brighton and Epsom) is enough to entice me to back her for a top 5 finish at odds of 4/7, which appear to offer some value.

1.0 pt for a top 5 finish @ 4/7 with Bet 365

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

STINTINO SUNSET ran her usual solid race and whilst she couldn’t live with the odds on favourite, she finished runner up, thus providing a profit of 0.57 pts.

Note to self – try to identify similarly consistent low grade horses that can be trusted to run their race, as often the top finish odds offer value, as they are based on the win market, in which these horses often have little chance of finishing in front.

With Haydock racecourse currently out of action due to drainage issues, the Class 2, Old Newton Cup has been transferred to the July course at Newmarket, which appears to have resulted in a significant reduction in runners for this handicap over 12 furlongs.

Still the race remains competitive with 12 runners, of which one appears to have been underestimated in the market.

PLAGE DE HAVRE – recorded his only victory on turf from just 4 attempts to date in this race last year, in which he beat the reopposing PADDY THE SQUIRE by 4 lengths, whilst conceding 7lbs to that rival. Last time out he finished 3rd (btn 5 1/4 lengths) behind KLASSLEADER at York, where he was conceding 13 lbs to the winner. This time around, he only has to concede 1 lb to PADDY THE SQUIRE and 4 lbs to KLASSLEADER, which suggests that he has sound claims of finishing in front of both opponents and may perhaps be able to retain his crown, as he remains well handicapped off his OR of 100 when compared with his latest career best RPR of 108.

0.25 pts win @ 15/2 with William Hill, plus 0.75 pts for a top 6 finish @ 1/2 with Bet 365.

Betting bank now 117.07 (excluding the 1.0 pts staked on Saturday)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

PLAGE DE HAVRE finished a disappointing ninth on Saturday, after drifting out to 10/1. His connections stated that he would have preferred slower ground, which in hindsight should have alerted me to tread with care, as the gelding had been withdrawn from a race at Royal Ascot for exactly the same reason.

It was also interesting to note that the winner, second and third in this race finished closest to PLAGE DE HARVE when he won last year’s renewal at Haydock.

I have no new entrants for the tracker from last week’s action, but CONSTITUTION RIVER does get an upgrade due to his dominant performance in the Group 1, Eclipse Stakes at Sandown, in which he recorded a career best RPR of 128.

It will be fascinating to watch the Group 1, Juddmonte International Stakes at York in August, if both OMBUDSMAN and CONSTITUTION RIVER are declared, as whilst the former has a career best RPR of 133 and is currently rated 5 lbs superior to the 3yo colt, he will have to concede 7 lbs due to the weight for age scale.

If they both run to the peak form that they have produced in their latest races, CONSTITUTION RIVER should win by around 1 length and that is without taking into account that he is more likely to be capable of further improvement in light of their comparative ages and racecourse experiences.

That said, OMBUDSMAN has already won the Juddmonte, so is proven at York, which is a track that for some unfathomable reason does not suit every horse, whilst the strength of the opposition put to the sword by CONSTITUTION RIVER on Saturday, was below what should be expected for a Group 1 event.

Quite a conundrum for us punters to unravel if the both turn up at York in August!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It is a bit late to be posting a selection for this afternoon, so I will keep this brief.

WILL SCARLET – 3.45 York

Recorded a career best RPR of 108 when successful at Newcastle last time out and is 2 lbs well in off an OR of 97, plus 5 lbs penalty for this early closing race, when compared with his revised rating of 104. His trainers Simon and Ed Crisford have their runners in good form at present and are profitable to follow at York, whilst they have employed a very capable apprentice jockey for this run in Mason Paetel, who can claim 5 lbs, thus negating the penalty. Also worth noting that the jockey has only ridden once for the stable and won.

0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 5 places) @ 40/1 with William Hill, plus 0.5 pts for a top 10 finish @ 13/8 with Bet365.

All the best,

Rob.

[Author]

Posts