QUALITY RACING 2026

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The Grade 1 novice events have been particularly treacherous at Punchestown this year and so it proved again for KOPEK DES BORDES who fell when just beginning to look the most likely winner.

Obviously, having hedged him I was guaranteed to make a small profit, but was fully expecting the funds to be sitting in with Boyalsport account, rather than on my exchange account.

There are plenty of top quality races tomorrow, both on the flat and over jumps, but nothing whets my appetite at the offered odds at present, but I will have another look in the morning.

Betting bank 115.63 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

With 15 runners for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday and 19 runners for the 1000 Guineas on Sunday stretched across the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket, I have a feeling that one or both of the 1 mile classics may prove to be substandard affairs, which doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence that I will be make a profit on either race.

I shall therefore keep thing simple and try a couple of small stakes each way singles on the runners that I mention in my previous posts for these events on this thread, earlier this month.

THESECRETADVERSAY – recorded a career best RPR of 111 on his seasonal debut when winning a Group 3 Classic Trial at Leopardstown in April, which suggests that he has undoubtedly trained on as a 3yo. Based on that effort he doesn’t have that much to find with the colts at the head of the betting for the 2000 Guineas and with his fitness not in doubt, he may be the big priced outsider that often secures an each way return in this race.

0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 4 places) @ 20/1 with Bet 365 (anyone with an account at Coral or Ladbrokes can secure 25/1 on the same terms)

EVOLUTIONIST – also recorded a career best RPR of 109 on her seasonal debut when winning a Group 3 Classic Trial, this time at Longchamp in mid April. She already has form over the course and distance having finished third in the Group 1 Fillie Mile behind both PRECISE and VENETIAN LACE, who have both been declared to run in the 1000 Guineas. However, I am drawn to EVOLUTIONIST as since a fairly low key career debut, she has improved her RPR bu either 8 or 9 lbs each time she has raced, so if she can do so again, she would have strong claims, as she would equal the highest winning RPR since MINDING won back in 2016.
Maybe it is too much to ask, but she is worth chancing each way.

0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 4 places) @ 18/1 with Bet 365

Betting bank 114.63 (with 1.0 pt of bets placed for the weekend)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A quiet morning, before 2 concerts at the Jazz Festival later today, so a chance to catch up with the results over the first few days of the week, plus a nice little earner from a hedged bet, as follows:

Both B365 and William Hill have boosted DOUBLE RUSH to win the 1.45 at Newmarket and on paper he appears to be the proverbial handicap certainty being 8 lbs well as he can run with a penalty for his latest course and distance victory compared with his revised official handicap rating.

However, I am not convinced, as the fact that more than one bookmaker has boosted his odds ring alarm bells with me, on the basis that they must believe he is vulnerable at the revised odds, as they are rarely charitable to us punters.

2.0 pts win with both Bet 365 and William Hill @ 6/4 returns 10.00 pts
5.6 pts lay with the exchange returns 10.00 pts after commission for a profit of 0.4 pts

Moving on to the action over the early part of this week.

MISSION CENTRAL – recorded a career best RPR of 112 when winning the Listed sprint over 5 furlongs at Naas on Monday, bringing his career record to 4 wins from 6 starts. As a 3yo, he is open to further improvement, but for now I have marked him as worth following over 5 or 6 furlongs at Group 3 and below.

The Grade 1 novice events over both hurdles and fences, plus the Champion Bumper at Punchestown on Tuesday and Wednesday, produced big priced winners that even a crystal ball gazer would have struggled to find, which resulted in a continuation of this season’s trend for moderate winners who fail to get anywhere near the Grade 1 class par RPR thresholds.

However, there were two bright spots, thanks to the Willie Mullins trained IL ETAIT TEMPS (RPR 179) and GAELIC WARRIOR (RPR 183), who both produced career best figures to follow up Cheltenham Championship race victories and thus cement their positions as the best chasers in their division for the season.

Spare a thought for the connections of MAJBOROUGH who again showed an almost complete lack of respect of the fences when blundering his way to a remote fourt place finish behind his stablemate IL ETAIT TEMPS. He clearly has a big engine so I just wonder whether there is a chance of him reverting to hurdling next season, in which case he could prove to be a dangerous rival to LOSSIEMOUTH, as a career best RPR of 179 over fences, would suggest that he may be capable of a Grade 1 class par figure over the smaller obstacles, if of course he can negotiate them safely.

I was at least able to add one new recruit to my tracker from Punchestown on Wednesday.

EVEN THO – spreadeagled her rivals to win the Grade 3 Mares’ Bumper by 16 lengths and remains unbeaten under rules having won her previous start at Limerick. She was awarded a career best RPR of 127 for her latest victory, which is not only the highest figure awarded to the winner of this event in the 6 years that it has been in existence, but also suggests that with the benefit of the 7 lbs Mares’s allowance she is the equal of the winner of the earlier winner of the Grade 1 Champion Bumper. She clearly has a bright future ahead of her and should be worth considering over hurdles next season below Grade 1 level.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It has been a weekend of near misses with THESECRETADVERSAY finishing fifth in the 2000 Guineas at 20/1, when I needed him to make the first 4 to provide an each way return, whilst EVOLUTIONIST did at least finish second in the 1000 Guineas at 18/1.

These results provided a return of 1.15 pts for my 1.0 pt stake, so a marginal profit of 0.15 pts.

With DOUBLE RUSH winning on Saturday to provide a hedged bet profit on 0.4 pts, it could have been a lot worse.

Betting bank 116.18 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have an hour before we need to leave for our final Jazz Festival concert, which should be enough time to review the horse racing performances from Thursday and Friday.

Starting with Punchestown on Thursday, there were no class par figures but it is worth mentioning a couple of performances in particular.

KOPEK DES BORDES – looked to have the Grade 1 novice chase at his mercy, prior to falling when in the lead at the second last fence. He remains one of only 3 novice chasers who recorded a Group 1 class par figure during last season, but like LULAMBA who also fell in his subsequent race after the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham, he will need to polish up his jumping technique if he is to fulfill his potential.

BOB OLINGER – signed off his career by winning the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle and can now look forward to a hopefully long and comfortable retirement. It is worrying that the winners of the 3 Group 1 staying hurdles run during this Spring have all been aged 11 and we can only hope that there will be an injection of new blood next season to provide some much needed quality into this division, albeit it is difficult to see where it will come from at this stage.

The results from Punchestown on Friday, only produced a single class par performance:

DINOBLUE – recorded a joint career best RPR of 166 when winning the Grade 2 Mares Chase for the second successive year, proving that she remains the dominant Mare over fences, having already retained her crown in the Cheltenham equivalent race back in March. However, she is now a 9yo and I wonder how much longer she has before she is retired for breeding purposes?

The other interesting point to note is that both KING RASKO GREY and LOSSIEMOUTH won the Grade 1 events on the fourth day of the festival, giving trainer Willie Mullins a nap hand of 5 Cheltenham Festival winners to double up at this meeting, which is a statistic worth noting for next year.

There was plenty of Listed/Group action on the flat on Friday, spanning 3 meetings at Ascot, Goodwood and Newmarket, but only one race produced a couple of class par RPRs, namely the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes over 2 miles at Ascot.

SWEET WILLIAM – was the winner, by a short head for which he was awarded an RPR of 119, which is just 1 lb below his career best figure. He is an ultra consistent performer having won 7 of his 20 career starts, whilst never finishing worse than 4th, but as a 7yo, he is unlikely to find much further improvement, so will probably continue to just fall short against the top stayers, albeit he will always be of interest in the top finish markets.

CABALLO DE MAR – was giving the winner 2 lbs and recorded a career best RPR of 118, which suggests that this 5yo gelding remains on a shallow upward trajectory. He already has a Group 1 victory to his name, having won the Prix du Cadran at Longchamp last October, but for now I have marked him down as worth supporting at Group 3 level, or in weak Group 2 events.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Although there was plenty of quality racing over last weekend, only two performances really stood out from amongst the crowd.

The first came in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in the early hours of Saturday (GMT).

ALWAYS A RUNNER – this 3yo filly retained her unbeaten record with a 1 1/4 lengths success for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 119. Her winning figure was the second best RPR during the past decade and after only 3 starts she has plenty of potential for further improvement as she gains experience. It will be interesting to see whether her connections enter her for the Preakness Stakes later this month, as she is currently rated 1 lb higher than the winner of what appears to be a fairly moderate Kentucky Derby and she would receive a fillies allowance.

However, the real highlight of the weekend was the performance of the winner in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday.

BOW ECHO – retained his unbeaten record with a fourth victory by beating GSTAAD by 2 3/4 lengths, with a further 8 lengths back to the third placed finisher. His winning RPR of 127 is the highest figure awarded in this race for over a decade and is a massive 16 lbs higher than his previous career best RPR. He is clearly very talented, but I feel that his connections have made the right decision to bypass the Irish Guineas later this month, as horses who produce massive performances after a fairly long break often “bounce” when asked to quickly back up that effort. He should prove difficult to beat when next seen at Royal Ascot, albeit the round course will undoubtedly provide this colt with some different challenges to overcome.

Unfortunately, Sunday’s 1000 Guineas was a fairly moderate affair, with the winner TRUE LOVE recording a very average RPR of 115, albeit perhaps we shouldn’t be overly surprised as none of the winners over the past decade have achieved a class par figure.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Chester racecourse is unique amongst U.K. tracks for a number of reasons, namely:

– It is exceptionally tight being just over 1 mile in circumference
– Horses spend a significant proportion of the race running around tight bends
– It is situated slap bang in the middle of a busy city
– it is cramped meaning that it is noisy thanks to always attracting an exuberant crowd

It is therefore no surprise that it is a specialist track, which requires horses to be well balanced both physically and mentally and possess the ability to make a quick break from the stalls to gain a favourable racing position, as whilst a low drawn horses can be favourable on such a tight circuit, the benefit is negated if the horse ends up sitting behind a wall of rivals and has to lose ground by running wide at the bends to make a challenge.

Over the years, my betting activity at Chester’s May meeting has dwindled to an average of just 1 wager each year, but I tend to monitor the results closely to identify runners that may be worth considering in the future, as I believe that if a horse can cope well with the demands of this unique track, it is likelly to flourish when racing at more conventional venues.

I have no bets for today, but I have identify a couple of possibilities over Thursday and Friday, which I will start analysing and share if appropriate.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

My sole runner for consideration on tomorrow’s card at Chester proved to be a disappointment when I realised that he was a slow starter who tended to race at the rear of the field, which is far from ideal over distances less than 1 mile.

However, I have found an interesting ‘dark horse’ for the Chester Cup on Friday, who may be capable of outrunning his massive odds.

CHEMISTRY – 5yo gelding who has some serious back form from a couple of years ago, when trained by Aidan O’Brien in Ireland, including a Listed victory over 1m 6f at Leopardstown, which he backed up with a second place finish over a furlong shorter at the same track in a Premier Handicap, for which he was awarded a career best flat RPR of 103.

He was then sold in April 2025 after which he was trained by Ivan Furtudo, but failed to be placed in 5 attempts, albeit he had excuses for each of those defeats, including making his seasonal debut giving weight away in a conditions race at Pontefract after a year off the track, trip to short and/or racing on synthetic surfaces, or ridden by a fairly inexperienced apprentice jockey. That said, he still managed a near best RPR of 100 on one occasion.

He has now changed trainer again and is in the hands of Jennie Candish who sent him to Sedgefield to win a Novice Hurdle on his stable debut in April, which tells us little other than he is fit.

He appears well handicapped having dropped from a career high OR of 106 to a seemingly lenient 90, when compared with his career best RPR of 103 and may be well drawn in stall 3, albeit he has a tendency to race a little off the pace, so may need to find a gap to make his challenge off the final bend. That said, the majority of winners of this historic race during the past decade have raced in midfield or at the rear during the early part of the race.

Jennie Candish has a good record with older horses in flat races over 2 miles, or more and has secured the services of David Probert who has ridden plenty of winners and placed horses at this unique track.

All of the above suggests to me that CHEMISTRY is expected to run well.

William Hill are offering 25/1, but are only going 4 places in this 17 runner field, so I have gone with Bet 365, as follows:

0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 5 places) at 22/1.

Betting bank 115.68 pts (with 0.5 pts of bets placed for Friday)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It is interesting that both Graeme Rodway and Paul Kealy at the Racing Post have selected CHEMISTRY for tomorrow’s Chest Cup, for which his odds have contacted to 16/1 at best, with B365 cutting him to just 14/1, along with a number of other major firms.

Fingers crossed for tomorrow!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Unfortunately, CHEMISTRY weakened in the last furlong, or so and appears to be a non stayer at extreme distances, finishing ninth.

His best form in Ireland was achieved at around 13/14 furlongs and whilst he is unlikely to make the cut if entered for either the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot, or the Ebor at York, off his current OR of 90, there are plenty of valuable Class 2 handicaps at around his ideal trip, if his connections decide to preserve with a flat campaign.

He is definitely worth adding to my tracker.

Betting bank 115.68 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Folks,

It is time to catch up with the Listed/Group race action that was staged in England, Ireland and France during Monday to Friday of last week.

Before I get on to individual performances, it is worth noting that master trainer, Aidan O’Brien completed a clean sweep in the five Listed/Group races at Chester with seasonal debutants, which together with stable results elsewhere suggests that he at least has his middle distance runners fit enough to do themselves justice, even if some of his horses at shorter distances have been rather hot and miss on their first runs.

I have four new entries for the tracker, all of which were class par qualifiers trained by Aidan O’Brien, as follows:

HAWK MOUNTAIN – started his 3yo campaign with a fairly workmanlike performance in the Group 3 Prix de Guiche over 9 furlongs at Chantilly and has now won his last 4 starts, since suffering defeat on his career debut. He was awarded an RPR of 115 for this victory, which is 1 lb below his career best figure, but is probably capable of improving on this effort during the season, as he is a previous Group 1 winner at 8 furlongs. Although he is entered for the Epsom Derby, I feel he will be more suited to races around 10 furlongs and would have leading claims if turning up for the French equivalent.

BENVENUTO CELLINI – produced a dominant performance to justify odds of 2/9 in the Group 3 Chester Vase over 12.5 furlongs on Wednesday, albeit he didn’t have much to beat, after a couple of late withdrawals. He recorded a career best RPR of 115 for this victory and has proven that he will have no stamina doubts when contesting the Epsom Derby for which he is the current favourite. Whether he will be good enough to win the race is in my mind debatable as I have marked him as at present as a colt to consider in races below Group 1.

CONSTITUTION RIVER – also benefited from the late withdrawal of his main market rival in the Listed Dee Stakes over 10.5 furlongs, but produced a very dominant display to win by 7 lengths in a quick time. His winning RPR of 119 was a career best on his first attempt over further than 7 furlongs and was the best figure recorded by the winner of this historic race during the past decade. He is currently priced up as second favourite for the Epsom Derby and whilst his pedigree doesn’t guarantee he will stay 12 furlongs, he hit the finishing line hard, suggesting he would probably be united by further, albeit he also has the pace for the French equivalent.

JAN BRUEGHEL – 5yo horse who has now won 6 of his 8 career starts including both the Group 1 St Leger as a 3yo and the Coronation Stakes last year. He recorded an RPR of 119 when winning the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes over 13.5 furlongs at Chester on Thursday, which is sufficient for entry into my tracker, but a career best figure of 126 suggests that he may come up short against the very best middle distance horses, albeit he should be considered in weaker Group 1 events.

I will return with my review of the weekend action in a couple of days.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Does anyone here get involved with matched bets on a particular race?

What I mean by this terminology is the market offered by most bookmakers whereby the punter can back their preferred selection to finish ahead of another runner in the race even if their selection finished second from last, provided the other runner is last home.

The reason I ask is that I often fancy one horse to finish ahead of another runner in the race, but have little confidence that my selection will prove profitable to back in any of the standard, or traditional extra markets, so tend not to bother having a bet in the race.

Take for example the 6.37 race at Killarney this evening which is a Grade 3 chase run over 2m 4.5f on a sharp track, which tends to favour speed horses over those with stamina as their main asset.

Bet 365 are offering a matched bet market on two of Gordon Elliott’s 3 runners in the race, namely SA FLEUR and THREE CARD BRAG.

SA FUREUR has a stiff task of beating his stablemate based on both official ratings 148 vs 155 and adjusted RPRs 165 vs 174, which suggests he is around 7 to 9 lbs inferior. However, all of his runs over fences including 2 wins and 2 second placed finishes from 7 attempts have been achieved over distances ranging from 2 miles to 2m 4.5f, with his career best RPR of 153 having been achieved in a Listed Handicaps over today’s trip at Navan. He is also the choice of No1 stable jockey Jack Kennedy, so is clearly expected to run well, albeit I think he will struggle to achieve a top 3 finish against some talented opponents to reward each way support.

THREE CARD BRAG is joint top rated in the race based on official ratings and is second best by 2 lbs when considering adjusted RPRs, but he is a strong stayer over trips in excess of 3 miles and has twice finished in the Grand National at Aintree, albeit well behind the winner on each occasion. He hasn’t raced at this trip since 2023, when he was running over hurdles and in addition the sharp nature of this course is probably not ideal, as he invariably races at big, wide galloping tracks, which place an emphasis on stamina rather than speed.

In summary, I believe that the race distance and nature of the track will negate the superiority of THREE CARD BRAG over SA FUREUR, which suggests that the last named runner is worth chancing at Evens to finish ahead of his stablemate who is currently quoted at 8/11.

1 pt SA FUREUR to finish ahead of THREE CARD BRAG @ Evens with Bet 365.

Betting bank 114.68 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Apologies I was a bit tied up today trying to get myself out of trouble on my Ridiculous Ideas for 2026 thread and did not have time to join in on this one.
I have certainly looked into matched bets but found the odds were a little limited for me. However this would not stop me playing multiple selections through one of the Irish meetings where all our data would (hopefully) come to the fore. As well as the trainer and jockey data Suds and I are working on this year, I have been resurrecting and updating my old horses for courses article (from back in the day).When all of this is finished we are hoping to hit one specific (Irish) meeting covering all types of bets/wagers.
With this in mind next time you have a dabble let me know it could be an idea for the The Bletchley Park Gang thread. ?

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Well that went down like a lead balloon!!

SA FUREUR drifted like a barge in the win market and sulked at the rear of the field, before falling, whereas THREE CARD BRAG seemed to cope with the shorter trip and sharp track to finish second, beaten just 1 length.

I shall preserve with this idea when I find a suitable race with a selection that I feel will run well and a rival who may struggle.

Betting bank remains at 114.68 pts

All the best,

Rob

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It has been one of those days, when little has gone right for me in respect of my access to the Racing Post Website.

When I first logged on I found that a different version of the race cards had appeared, which were horrible to work with, then when I returned from a trip out, I was unable to access the race cards at all.

Four hours later I have finally gained access to the normal race cards having cleared my browser, but have lost all my preparatory work for the 3 day York meeting which starts tomorrow, plus my initial analysis for the weekend and all future races for which entries have been made, including Epsom and Royal Ascot.

In brief, hours of work down the drain and I am not a ‘happy bunny’!!!

Anyway, enough of my woes, so I shall now move on to my thoughts on the action from last weekend, for which there are very few highlights, despite the large number of supposedly top quality races.

LAKE FOREST – 5yo gelding who was the only class par achiever on Saturday when winning the Listed, Spring Trophy Stakes over 7 furlongs at Haydock. His impressive 5 1/2 length victory was awarded a career best RPR of 120, suggest that he will be worth supporting over distances around 7 furlongs, but well worth opposing over further. It is difficult to gauge his ceiling as he has already secured a Group 2 victory, whilst he also won a massive prize in a conditions event over 7.5 furlongs at Rosehill in Australia, where all of the next 9 horses to finish have won Group 1 events, albeit in Australia (including handicaps) which are both numerous and tend to prove a little below the European standards.

RAYVEKA – 4yo filly who won the Group 3 sprint over 5 furlongs at Longchamp on Sunday. She was awarded a career best RPR of 118 for this victory, which suggests that she should be worth considering in Group 3 or lower events over 5 furlongs only, as she appears to be a non stayer over further, despite having finished third in last year’s Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.

RAYIF (RPR 120) and DIAMOND NECKLACE (RPR 116) both recorded the highest figures in the French 2000 and 1000 Guineas during the past decade, but failed to achieve class pars for 3yo Group 1 events. It is never easy to determine the worth of the form from the French Mile classics, as both races are run around a bend, meaning that low drawn horses are favoured as was the case this year, with RAYIF starting in stall 1 and DIAMOND NECKLACE emerging from stall 3.

I will now start trying to resurrect my analysis for York tomorrow.

All the best,

Rob.

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