[Mike]

Hi
The idea of me playing safe with bet builders gave me a sleepless night last night (lol) and I was praying someone else would have posted this morning but I have to grow up sometime so here goes.

Dysart Dolomite (top 4)
Skylight Hustle (top 4)
Casterly Rock (top 7) @ 17-10

Dysart Dolomite (top 4)
Skylight Hustle (top 4)
Minella Diamond (top 8) @ 17-10

Skylight Hustle (top 3)
Casterly Rock (top 8)
Minella Diamond (top 8) @ 17-10

Dyasart Dolomite (top3)
Casterly Rock (top 8)
Minella Diamond (top 8) @ 13-8

The main problem I foresee is one not completing but this is new territory for me. ?
I have done my usual seat of the pants ones including Rony Has & Eyetrap etc but thats just me.

[Mike]

Hi
Here are tomorrows super six what could possibly go wrong. ?

Fairyhouse 11.36 The Big Westerner @ 7-4
Newbury 11.55 Charisma Cat (without La Conquire & Clondaw Park) @ 13-5
Newbury 1.05 Kalkbrenner @ 2-1
Newcastle 2.00 The New Lion (without Anzadam) @ 10-11
Ospreys +22 to beat Edinburgh @ 10-11
West Ham win or draw v Liverpool @ 1-1

The winning numbers this week are 4,7,16,23,26 and 50

[Mike]

Hi
Well I would say that was pretty conclusive from our selections for a top five finish it’s just a question of how much tolerance you want to build into the bet. Top 6 Top 7 obviously we would have to wait until the bet builder prices go up but it will be interesting.

Starlight Hustle x4
Casterly Rock x4
Minella Diamond x3
Dysart Dolomite x3

Over to you Rob…lol or of course anyone else if they want to put a suggestion up.

The back up options appear to be Eyetrap & Rony Has with two votes each Eyetrap opened at 20-1 with bet 365 but 150-1 with Paddy Power otherwise it looks to be a pretty settled market.
Riskway is a non runner but Ravendark the unraced Gordon Elliot horse I was concerned about is 12-1 with bet 365 but 5-1 with most other firms and I would think making an allowance for him in case he spoils the party would be a given. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Big weekend especially for Rob and Suds as one of them gets November bragging rights and the free bets. The big race of the weekend has to be on Saturday ata Newcastle with Constitution Hill( Mgame) v Anzadam (Rob & Suds) v The New Lion (Rob Hopefull Andy & Joe).
Then on Sunday at Fairyhouse
1.35 Love Me Tender (Rob Andy Joe & Moi)
2.05 Romeo Coolio (Suds)
2.35 Teahupoo (Hopefull & Joe) v Ballyburn (Hopefull Andy & Joe)
3.05 Bowensonfire (Suds)
I can see this going down to last race on Sunday which would be great for the thread. Andy Hopefull and Joe also have three runners each and could pickup some useful points. MGame could still play a part in influencing the result if Constitution Hill can roll back the years in the big race Saturday.

[Mike]

Hi
A difficult race to price up but I have the following which is without two big dangers namely the reserve Riskway a last time out winner and then the unknown Ravendark who is one of Gordon Elliots runners. Gordon Elliot has a very impressive strike rate in this race. !!

Dysart Dolomite 4-1
Casterly Rock 9-2
Skylight Hustle 6-1
Minella Diamond 6-1
Rony Has 12-1
Emestraye 14-1
Eyetrap 16-1
Reckless 20-1
It’s Not his Fault 20-1
Take Stock 22-1
Ready For Road 22-1
Fairlander 22-1
33-1 bar

I am currently at a total loss on how to place an unraced horse in the tissue odds but am working on an idea or two. ?

[Mike]

Hi Rob
You know me so well I have been “buckling my swash” (lol) for many a year and although unlikely to change this is a joint venture and there is always a compromise. My concern is that no matter what the price if just one fails to complete (as happened today) or runs a stinker it brings the whole bet down therefore (and you did indicate bet builders “plural”) I would suggest we perm our “joint selections” in such a way as to leave the back door open just in case the odd one lets us down. This would still give us the possibility of all the permutations coming in as we usually have half the given number of runners in “Bet Builders” which gives us the scope to play the numbers a bit more.
Today’s bet for the thread was intended to be the 4-1 shot with the other bets only being put down as options to include the selections where we did not agree. I have no problem at all with the suggested race on Saturday as long as everyone else is ok with it. ?
The only thing that is likely to need to be addressed in the interim is my assessments did not rate Victor Kesia (6th) today and obviously only Suds and I had rated Miss Kingston (3rd). Now I can see the bias on my sheets as the conversion from Flat ratings to NH is probably woefully inadequate and Miss Kingston was highlighted with us by a non standard speed rating which nobody else would have seen.
I am in conversation with Hopefull over sharing/developing an excel sheet for everyone to share/look at/ contribute to which our tech dept Sean can help set up if it gets to technical. ?

[Mike]

Hi
No winning bet today as (apparently) the tack slipped on Music For Life but such is life. However I am more than happy with the way its going especially as for the second time now the long shot has been knocking on the door. Today’s 110-1 option mentioned above was not far off….

Gangster Granny (Top 6) 7th
Crohan Lady (Top 7) 4th
Frontier Rose (Top 8) 9th
Victoria Kesia (Top 8) 6th
Miss Kingston (Top 8) 3rd

It would appear again that between us we can do it it’s just a question of playing to out strengths or working out what they are. ? We managed to get the tissue odds more or less right Rob and Hopefull spotted the flat horse Victoria Kesia 100-1 6th and with Suds selecting the outsiders Miss Kingston 40-1 3rd and Crohan Lady 25-1 4th we certainly have the ingredients we just need to work on the recipe.

[Mike]

Hi
It’s getting a bit close time wise but all the non runners seem to have been sorted out now so here goes. After the non runners the most popular joint selection for our thread in my opinion would be the following which is priced up at 4-1.

Music Of Life (Top 2)
Jasmine Pearl (Top 3)
Daboya (Top 4)

As an alternative should one of the top two come unstuck our nb options provide this at 14-1

Daboya (Top 5)
Gangster Granny (Top 6)
Crohan Lady (Top 7)
Frontier Rose (Top 8)

Take out Daboya and put in the horses we selected but could not agree on Victoria Kesia and Miss Kingston for (Top 8) and you hit 110-1.

[Mike]

Hi
I have just updated the final tweaks “for better or worse” and will post before anything appears online as it adds to the tension…lol. I have had issues with creating a better differential between the prices and may possibly have overdone that aspect but only time will tell. ?? I also believe in time my new spreadsheet has the potential to be called “The Idiots Guide to Tissue Odds”.
But it may not be for the right reasons……lol.

Music Of Life 18-5
Jasmine Pearl 4-1
Moody Girl 6-1
Daboya 17-2
Crohan Lady 14-1
Miss Kingston 16-1
Gangster Granny 16-1
Miss Georgina 20-1
Frontier Rose 22-1
Ballingurteen 25-1
Walk In The Clouds 33-1
Angels Halo 33-1
Lucy Alpine Jade 33-1
Dancing Dame 33-1
40-1 bar

nb. Victoria Kesia does not show up on my sheet but is mentioned by both Rob and Hopefull so could be anything but my calcs are based on hurdle rating and times so… ??

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Well spotted ! yes that’s the one. It seems to have more scope than the others.

[Mike]

Hi
I will be having a go at the 2.32 at Thurles on Thursday if anyone wants to join in. Obviously I will be waiting for the jockey declarations as I am not expecting more than fifteen to go to post. It’s a Maiden Hurdle so hopefully will also be an easier one to work out. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Well that was close Rob, Andy and Joe all scored +16.62 with Gaelic Warrior beating Mgame’s Fact To File by a neck. I picked up 7.5 points with Kala Conti. This means the November competition is now a two horse race between Rob and Suds.

November Competition
Rob +51.56 (4 wins)
Suds +44.31 (3 wins)
Joe +25.31 (3 wins)
Moi +25.10 (3 wins)
Mgame +22.94 (3 wins)
Andy +20.91 (2 wins)
Hopefull +4.29 (1 win)

[Mike]

Hi Rob
You should know me by now from back in the old days with my 100-1 shots thread..lol.
As for this thread in theory it runs itself and you can add to the existing list as and when. It took a lot of developing but we think we have a system that is unbreakable it is just a question of taking it to the next level. The only draw back is that you have to update the data base on a regular basis.
As an example of unbreakable “Fool Me Once” our disaster horse is running again tomorrow but obviously as it is a perpetual loser each time it loses, the price gets bigger. So to recoup our losses today he is currently 20-1 and to get our 10 point target profit we would only have to place a 1.5 points each way wager and the max loss would be 3 points.
Ok…you have convinced me (or have I convinced myself) we go for him again..lol

Cork 1.00 Fool Me Once 20-1 for 4 places subject to any better options in the next hour or two.

[Mike]

Hi
Its “Hats Off” to Suds today in the competition who had three winners and a grand total of +44.31 points on the day. This makes Suds our new points leader and tied with Rob on three wins for the month. Suds also has one more win in the overall competition and a grand total of +48.81.
This however could change tomorrow as Suds has no runners but Rob has two going by way of Jade De Grugy and Gaelic Warrior. Mgame could also get involved this month if Fact To File turns over Gaelic Warrior which would make it a cracking finish to the monthly competition next weekend.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
No problem always best to take a time out but for what its worth I made this very same point to Suds on the Trainer thread just this morning. In that, Gavin Cromwell who trained your “Grandy Lane” today is having probably his worse run of form in an age and currently would struggle to put out a runner to win a match against my milkman’s horse. I only noticed this as he also trains the nemesis on my thread “Fool Me Once” and is Suds nominated trainer this month.

[Author]

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