[Mike]

Hi
I think I should start a thread called Coulda, Shouda, Woulda (The Punters Excuse) …lol. Right horse/s yesterday but had I taken the 6-1 betting without the favourites it would have been a win or left it as straight each way or done Raydamann for 6 places etc etc. Happy enough though as we only just missed out by a short head and a neck so I still think we have now turned the corner.
I did have something for today but have just seen that Fairyhouse has been abandoned so will have to wait a bit longer to try and prove the point.

[Mike]

Hi
I still think it was worth a shout yesterday but obviously we dropped a point leaving us on +7 we have one going today which again is not a to follow horse but gives me a chance to try out a conspiracy theory wager…lol.
There is flat race today at Punchestown which although sanctioned as a race will not please the purists but makes for an opportunity for me to throw my selection in to try a bet builder using Accustomed to fill the predicted just out of the frame position.

5.02 @ 12-1
Jump Allen (Top 2)
That Danny Feeling (Top 3)
Raydamann (Top 4)
Accustomed (Top 6)

[Mike]

Hi
Jonbon’s win yesterday sealed this months competition (barring a miracle) as it added another +15.44 points and makes it 6 wins this month leaving G’s total to date at +91.28. This also takes Mgame into an overall lead with +183.93 in the main competition.
I will obviously update the overall picture at the end of the month.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Thanks for that it was nice to turn that one around I had been getting quite a bit of stick for changing the 2025 thread….lol.

I was not sure about this one as it is not a To Follow horse but I see the possibility of an upset as this one is a bit of a monkey but looks to have potential. So betting without the odds on favourite looks the sensible option but at only 1/2 point each way what the heck.

Gowran Park 12.45 Whats New @ 18-1 3 places

[Mike]

Hi
Not so good last week but we live to fight another day as it has been over six months since the lottery ticket beat us. Lets hope we can do a little better this week and get that elusive treble in.

Wales +32 to beat France @ 1-1
Wincanton 12.35 At The Oche @ 7-4
Wincanton 1.05 Queens Gamble @ 15-8
Ascot 1.15 Mondouiby @ 6-4
Gowran Park 1.20 Strom Heart @ 11-8
Gowran Park 1.55 Bally Free @ 13-8

The lottery numbers will be the usual 4,7,16,23,26 & 50.

[Mike]

Hi
Just the two so far this weekend both for Saturday, which are as follows

Ascot 3.35 Jonbon (Mgame)
Gowran Park 1.20 Kawaboomga (Moi)

[Mike]

Hi
Having posted about trying to crack the “Heavy Ground” conundrum I noticed another member having one pulled up the other day after specifically mentioning the ground issues. Therefore now I have got my thread back on track I will start looking back into this and will throw the topic out there for input.
I will split our data base down looking for heavy ground time differentials and post if anything interesting comes out of it.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
We are looking at options to secure this thread but in the meantime would suggest anyone who is loathe to give away trade secrets for fear of having loopholes closed down use the The Bletchley Park Gang thread and I can link the article to that and just post the results on here. ?

As is stands I have scoured all the markets in the Liverpool v Man City game and can come up with only a few very basic fail safes resulting in very little reward.
This is probably because the old enemy is very adept at cornering the market (no pun intended) when it comes to football offers. In this instance I would ignore the bet boosts just take the 2 point free bet and go with your instinct. My opinion for this thread would be both teams desperately need all three points and I can see it being a hectic game.

BTTS in both halves
Both Teams over 4.5 corners
Both teams to receive a card

This works out at 24.97 so we are looking for a dream 50 point win (no stakes involved returns or losses).

[Mike]

Hi
Hesgonethatway has restored my faith as I was running a postmortem as to what had gone wrong to date (mostly my bad choices) when he popped in (advised @14-1) to give me a nice +16.80 profit on the day. This on top of our 9-1 win on Puma’s Dream the other day has turned a struggling -14.60 thread into a +8 point profit.
I will post a breakdown of the bets at the end of the month or when I get five minutes but needless to say I am a very relieved birthday boy. I will admit I was beginning to have my doubts over the new thread.
I will continue with the postmortem as we are not out of the woods yet and I have already seen a glaring mistake on my behalf.
I can see nothing of interest until Tuesday at present so have a bit of time to finish looking through my early schoolboy errors and hopefully its on-wards and upwards from here on in.

[Mike]

Hi
As expected all three runners duly trotted up today which leaves G (Mgame) in a fairly unassailable position for the monthly prizes.

Mgame +75.84 (5 x Wins)
Suds +40.44 (2 x Wins)
Joe +33.59 (2 x Wins)

As for the overall competition this is still wide open as we head towards Cheltenham.

Joe +172.60
Mgame +168.49
Suds +149.51
Rob +137.96

[Mike]

Hi
Quite a few firms are offering free bets or money back offers on the Liverpool v Man City game tomorrow so if there are any mathematicians out there who want to have dabble go for it. I will do the same as before but need a bit of time to work out (what appear to be) the safest option.

[Mike]

Hi
Here are this weeks magnificent six which hopefully will run as we had three non runners last week.

Naas 1.05 Kilmeaden w/o Highland Crystal @ 2-1
Lingfield 1.45 Francesi @ 5-2
Newbury 2.10 L’Homme Presse @ 11-8
Newbury 2.45 Saint Segal w/o Lulumba @ 11-8
Naas 2.50 Half A Chance w/o Moudan @ 9-4
Naas 4.00 Uhavemeinstitches w/0 Dinoblue @ 5-2

The lottery numbers will be 4,7,16,23,26 & 50.

[Mike]

Hi
Just the one tomorrow which is a To follow horse and Bet365 have opened up with double figure odds which is markedly different to anyone else’s so I have gone in straigh away without waiting for BOG.

Naas 2.50 Hesgonethatway 14-1 for 4 places 1 point each way

[Mike]

Hi
There are going to be limited options to pick up any more points for this months competition as we are getting close to the Festival meeting at Cheltenham and the majority of the horses on our list will be entered to run there. So this weekend could be one of the last chances for a few of the big guns to get a run in and there are three going which are as follows.

Naas 4.00 Dino Blue +12 (Steve ,Andy, Mgame & Joe)
Newbury 2.10 Haiti Coulers +12 (Rob)
Newbury 2.45 Lulumba +4 (Mgame, Joe & Moi)

All three are well fancied and should pick up points but if both Mgames horses come in G’s new total would be hard to beat.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Thanks..In theory it was a shot to nothing but as it worked out both bets came in as we combined our opinion on the match with two differing options that gave us the opportunity for a profit if either came in but also that both could come in.
I will go into detail if required tomorrow but for now the simple facts are we won +5 points with the Paddy Power bet and we also picked up +4.5 points on the bet365 wager so double bubble.
This gives the thread a +9.5 point start and as it is open to active members as a joint thread please feel free to give it go if you see anything that you think is relatively fool proof.
If you look at Ridiculous Ideas for 2026 the wager on Pumas Dream today it also provided a profit today but that was simply a bookmakers error that was we thought was worth a punt. But hopefully it gives you another idea of we are looking at on here. ?

[Author]

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