[Mike]

Hi
The nightmare continues with Fool Me Once as I needed fourth he came fifth and this one is going to be a real test of faith but with only a couple of months to go he could be the one disappointment on the 2025 thread. We only dropped the -3 points by backing him again which leaves us now on +162.50 but individually Fool Me Once is now -20.
I will hopefully be back on Thursday with a wager over at Clonmel.

[Mike]

Hi
I had a query from one of our returning members over why Fool Me Once was a nightmare bet for me and why I was unhappy with the previous winner Alright Darling even though he won at 9-1.
So for those who missed the start of this thread the idea was to try and make a minimum 10 point profit from each horse then drop the horse from the thread.
Now Alright Darling was -2 at the time so by backing him at only 1 point each way I would have made a 10.80 profit but because he was already -2 I effectively have only made an 8.8 point profit on him as I should have had 1.5 points on him.
The same applies to Fool Me Once who is my nightmare horse as he is currently -17 points and even at the current price of 16-1 will cost me 1.5 each way as the possible return of 28.80 minus the 17 point defict would me a profit on the horse of +11.8 the double whammy for me is that should he lose today he would be the first horse on this thread to a achieve a deficit of -20 points and would have to make consider dropping him away and taking the hit of -20.
So I have gone with the 1.5 points 16-1 (BOG attathched) for 4 places (bet365) but its squeeky bum time for me with this one today.

[Mike]

Hi
After yesterdays 9-1 winner we will try and keep the run going but unfortunately have our worst nightmare scenario for this to happen as we are relying on
Fool Me Once @ 14-1 for 4 places in the 3.07 at Limerick
I say worse nightmare as this one is our biggest loser to date and will require a wager of at least 1.5 points each way to sort this one out.

[Mike]

Hi
Here we go again with this weeks super six somethings….lol

Stratford 1.15 Electric Eddy @ 9-4
Limerick 1.45 Touch The Moon @ 6-4
Limerick 2.20 Bridge View Star @ 4-1
Ascot 2.45 Estrange (betting without Kalpana) @ 7-2
Newcastle to beat Brighton @ 8-5
Ospreys +4 to beat Glasgow @ 10-11

This weeks lottery numbers are 4,7,16,23,26 ad 50

[Mike]

Hi
I had a nice winner with Alright Darling which brought us in a nice +9.80 point profit on Thursday which now takes us back up to +165.50 for the thread. I had one going tomorrow that has just become a non runner so we will have to wait for Sunday until the next bet.
I did take my eye off the ball with regard to Alright Darling and should have had a little more on him to cover the deficit as he was -2 at the time but in my defense I have been playing catch up on the site and missed the boat on that one and he finishes only 8.8 points up.

[Mike]

Hi
Another no score draw last week and since I have been home that has been two bad weeks with only Sudsie’s Ospreys bet coming home for a win last week. I have started to update the data base and have a few I fancy could turn the tide tomorrow but will wait to see who joins in first.

[Mike]

Hi Joe
NIce to see you back, if you are joining in do I sense a Cardiff v Swansea rivalry with Andy ?…lol.

[Mike]

Hi
I have done my usual and waited for BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) to come into effect with Bet365 before placing my bets and this prompted to me to consider a thread offering the advantages offered by the varying bookmakers. I am a huge fan of Best Odds Guaranteed. But then again I do like the extra places offered by Sky Bet. Food for thought possibly….

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Thanks I am still chilling (well trying to) but as proven by the next point I suffer more from old age than anything else. The next point being Suds very politely pointed out (without posting it to avoid my embarrassment) that I had put Jasmin De Vaux down twice in my suggested list. My apologies… I have updated the list and it now includes Irancy instead. Obviously the list is just a suggestion and you can pick any twelve you like from the Milkmans horse (for those old enough to remember those) to a full list of Willie Mullins hot shots.
I happen to know Mgame is a Nicky Henderson fan and I wonder if are going to get twelve from that yard and although I did not put Constitution Hill down in my suggestions list will anyone be brave enough to include this one.
I will a few days before the competition starts try and confirm all the horses chosen will still run this year as you can change your mind as often as you like up to the 31st October.

[Mike]

Hi Hopefull
Yes that’s fine and thanks as you have got the ball rolling. I know Mgame already has a list but has queried what happens if ie Lulmba runs in a big hurdle race in France or one of the selections runs in say a flat or point to point race. This threw me for a while but I would suggest that if the result is printed in the Racing Post it counts. ?
Also should your horse be declared out for the season before the competition starts you may replace it and if you change your mind on any of the selections as long as I know by October 31st no problem.

[Mike]

Hi
Both of the last two went down but it wasn’t to painful and we now we stand at +156.70. We have two going tomorrow at Thurles along the same lines but due to the prices we will need to up the stakes on one of them.

2.47 Benzine 1/2 point E/W @ 25-1 for 5 places
5.00 Alright Darling 1 point E/W @ 9-1 for 5 places

[Mike]

Hi Suds
That was soooo..close with Ceanndana today I thought you were in there. But I am guessing a place is still a decent shout at double figures. It’s turning out to be a decent run of form this week.

[Mike]

Hi Andy
Good Thanks. ! Got my feet up playing catch up with the site etc. Obviously feel free to choose you own twelve the list was just to assist those who may not have played before.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
All sorted there’s always a compromise somewhere.

Over 120,000 = 20 points
Over 60,000 = 15 points
Over 30,000 = 12 points
Over 15,000 = 8 points
All other races = 4 points

I will now post the suggestions list for those who are not sure how this works or those who are dabbling for the first time as it very easy to end up with all your selections running against each other. The idea is that if you pick one from every group of three you should end up with ten selections hopefully a few winners and some entries in most of the big weekend races. This will leave you two spare selections so you can have another random two from the lists if you do not fancy doing your homework.

Lulumba
Brighterdaysahead
Ballyburn

Fact To File
Gaelic Warrior
Il Est Francais

Inowthewayurthinkin
Galopin Des Champs
Majborough

Sir Gino
Marine Nationale
Kopek Des Bordes

Lossiemouth
The New Lion
Stateman

Teahupoo
The Yellow Clay
Jasmin De Vaux

Love me Tender
Doctor Du Mesnil
Windbeneathmywings

Irancy
Final Demand
Gameofinches

Jade De Grugy
Heron In The Park
Dino Blue

Bambino Fever
Matin Midi Et Soir
Mossy Fen Park

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Strangely as I was compiling the guide list of (suggested) horses to follow I was thinking along similar lines as most of them hopefully will at some stage run in graded races. Also Suds (Clarence) was asking as to whether a nominal amount of points should be awarded just for winning a race to avoid low scoring totals. ?
A possible compromise would be the setup used by a rival site (that I have thrown a challenge out to) as they list bonus points for all races won but by the value of the race. ?
Using your example the winner of the Seller “Mike’s Long Shot” would indeed amass 50 points and “Robs Banker” would have over a 100 for winning the five grade 1’s. This unfortunately would then leave “Suds Choice” say winner of two £10,000 handicaps at 7-1 on only 14 points. Using Jonbon and Galopin Des Champs from last years competition as (prize money won) examples I have come up with the following.
But you can adjust the prize money totals to make it more of a level playing field. ?
Over 120,000 = 20 Points
Over 60,000 = 15 points
Over 30,000 = 12 points
over 10,000 = 10 points
Any race win under £10,000 = 5 points

[Author]

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