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MikeKeymasterHi
I do not mean to sidetrack this thread but I have had a lot of queries since Rob and I posted this morning.
The most asked question to date has been how do you compile odds before the bookies odds come out. The simple answer is with great difficulty but here is the simplest example I could come up with featuring today’s graded races at Navan. Graded races rarely have bad runners in them and by simply using there official rating I compiled these odds this morning using just the OR official rating as stated on this mornings race card in the Racing Post.The Yellow Clay……. 156…. 35…..35.29…. 9-5……..8-15
Jetara……………………146…..25…..25.21…..3-1…….100-30
Maxxum……………….153…..32…..32.27…..85-40….8-1
Colonel Mustard …..146…..25…..25.21….. 3-1……..12-1
Grandero Bello……..123……2…… 2.02…….50-1…….33-1Dinoblue………………160…. 12……31.43…..11-5……..5-2
Found A Fifty………..164…..16…..42.86…..11-8…….11-8
Captain Guiness……162…..14…..37.14…..13-8……..5-1
Touch Me Not……….150……2……2.86……33-1……..5-1
Hercule Du Seuil…..151……2…… 5.71…….16-1……..14-1The first column is the actual OR (Official Rating) The second Column is the same rating but reduced by the amount it would take to make the lowest figure 2. In race one it was 121 Grandero Bello OR 123 – 121 = 2. Then reduce the rest of the ratings by the same amount (121). The next figure was simple calculations to achieve a betting market to 120% approximately the same as a bookmaker would use. We then compare the % mark of each runner to a table that gives you the effective odds of each runner.
Yes I know its not that simple and I will send out to anyone who wants a copy of the sheet and further explanation just e-mail me.
I will tidy this post up later but wish to get back to the thread as I have a list of odds to show the flip side of the coin when it all goes wrong.MikeKeymasterHi
A bit of a disaster for Dino Blue followers when he clobbered one in the back straight and with The Yellow Clay not looking race fit it was a funny old day. But at the halfway stage in the November competition the standings are a follows.Robmull has three winners and 34.94 points
I have two winners and 17.6 points
Mgame and JoeH both have two winners and 8.69 pointsEverybody else is off the mark competition wise with at least 4 points and we have another interesting weekend coming up.
MikeKeymasterHi
Thanks for that Rob a very incisive piece of work which also highlights the problems of backing in Maiden Races with some form only being available from different codes. We have a similar problem comparing Speed Ratings from the Flat or NHF to hurdle times. ?
This thread has already got me hooked and I am really looking forward to Tuesdays race as Hopefull sent me an Excel sheet last night which also highlighted Loyal Praetorian West Of Bally and Butch Coolridge. Suds will update later but I believe will be along similar lines.
Also with “I’ll Sort That” just beating “Theflyingking” in today’s race that bolsters our predictions from yesterday and I think means it was indeed a very good start to the thread.
This thread is attracting quite a bit of interest and the constant queries I get are what does this mean ? why did you do that ? how did you work that out ?etc etc and it occurred to me to go back to basics. Also if I cannot help Rob is a fountain of information and I am sure will help out when I go wrong or get stuck. The same applies to other members who may specialize in excel etc we can all help each other out here.
I am not sure how you all go about the process but my starting point is a spreadsheet (but obviously pen and paper is fine) The first part is to select a race there are lots of types but basically they fall into two categories Handicap and Non Handicap.
A Non Handicap race is where for instance Usain Bolt and I will run against each other over 100 yards. He gets lucky (My hearing aid battery falls out I don’t hear the starting gun) he wins. But when we meet in a handicap race to give me a chance the handicapper blindfolded’s Usain makes him carry a sofa and gives me a 90 yard head start. !! Yes he still wins but in the second instance you may have been tempted to back me (look up the definition of “Mug Punter” if you were tempted.?).
The main point of the above was to point out that there will be wealth of extra information to assist you in a handicap race but you get a wealth of problems to go with it. The next obvious step is to pick a type of race and start a sheet or sheets up which we can all use and adapt as we go along so we need a list of factors that we think are necessary. I have put up a list on the first post of the thread but for handicaps jockey allowances etc possibly should be considered. ?MikeKeymasterHi Rob
I think I have mentioned before backing all those at the given prices would put me back in Morriston CCU by the end of the day as I would be watching every obstacle in case of a Fall UR or Brought Down scenario. But you have been more or less bang on so far and I wish you an incident free day….lol.
I am guessing you are pleased so far as you seem to be ahead of your original targets. ?MikeKeymasterHi Rob
Not too shoddy and it will be interesting to see what happens in tomorrow’s race where the three absentee’s from today’s are are running. ?
Hi All
This has had me thinking though as to how you rate a race such as the 12.35 at Limerick on Tuesday.
This is not really a race to get involved in but I picked this because of the fact that it looks on paper to be so bad that the Milkman’s horse could win it. ?
Does anyone have any ideas I will list our suspicions with an added Baldrick (cunning plan). We have attempted the full sheet of prices but are currently adjusting them due to the lack of data.Loyal Praetorian 9-2
Butch Coolidge 7-1
West Of Bally 15-2MikeKeymasterHi Rob
With only seven left in, the race holds little appeal but if I had to go in Eclipse Chaser The Big Clubman and Frankie John for the top four @ 11-2 would be the fun wager in the hope that bad jumping or the ground catches out Kalypso’chance or Walks In June. ??MikeKeymasterHi
It looks like we could still have a busy few days for the competition with the following still declared over the next two days
Today
Navan 2.32 Quai De Bourbon
Navan 2.45 Final Demand
Monday
Exteter 2.00 Lulumba
Navan 2.10 The Yellow Clay
Navan 2.45 Marine Nationale and Dino Blue (kit kat challenge..lol)
Navan 3.10 Kopek Des Bordes
Rob holds pole position and has three of the above running with the big match being the 2.45 on Monday. Rob has Marine Nationale whilst Hopefull, APm, Mgame and Joeh have all gone with Dino Blue. If Marine Nationale wins Rob should clean up this month but if Dino Blue wins its game on for November as there are some big guns coming out later in the month.MikeKeymasterHi Rob
Ooops…Thanks I have amended the original post I had three at 15-2 and missed one out (old age does not come alone). I have just noticed that although the race is going ahead my top selection I’ll Sort That is now a non runner. But if the field stays as it is I will be looking at a bet without Eclipse Chaser.
Rightly or wrongly Walks In June scores with my program as I have a rating that involves prize money won divided by the races run in specific codes etc. There is a discrepancy in the value of the prize money on offer in his last race £7080 and his earnings for this particular runner £5851 but either away he tops that section on my sheet. He also impressed me with his hurdling and looked like there was more to come.
As stated earlier I have a few issues with the outsiders and balancing the over round as this race came out at 125% I was aiming for %120 to try and match the old enemies odds. But the program is work in progress and has been driving me potty since going over to Maiden Races etc.MikeKeymasterHi
The abandoned meeting at Navan today played havoc with the TFT entries but there are high hopes that most of them will turn out Monday when the meeting is rescheduled. July Flower did run and get me off the mark though so all to play for Tomorrow and Monday if the racing goes ahead. ?MikeKeymasterHi
I will stick with my write up now the prices are up and suggest the likeliest winner (in what looks like a wide open race) would be I’ll Sort That. Theflyingking has indeed become a heavily backed market mover so becomes a place prospect. Of the bigger prices I would be interested in Frankie John and/or The Big Clubman for a top five finish or betting without I’ll Sort That.
The 64 dollar question is for me in a race like this is what type of bet to place. It is not a race where I could confidently pick the winner so it would be the extra markets for me.
Although my excel tissue odds program is suspect with the prices of the “Rags” (outsiders) in the markets here were my original market odds for all the runners.I’ll Sort That 4-1
Eclipse Chaser 9-2
Kalypso’chance 7-1
Walks In June 15-2
Ma Jacks Hill 15-2
The Big Clubman 15-2
Frankie John 9-1
Theflyingking 10-1
Blue Waters 12-1
Pheonox Arizona 16-1I am reworking the program but it being excel it would never give a (less than) 1% option to be able to obtain a 100-1 in a race such as this where all the horses have some sort of form.
MikeKeymasterHi
Navan being cancelled today was a major disappointment especially for our TFT and Beat the Lotto entries but his will make our trial race much more interesting (and trickier to call) as it may now have all ten of the original declarations turning out.
Obviously it would make sense to wait until we at know who is likely to turn out but as I am out this morning I will put a quick note or two down.
Eclipse Chaser: the Mullins runner is coming on nicely and won well enough last time out should handle the ground and has no issues with the trip. The concern is that although well clear of the rest of field he did lose to Killian’s Garden who has not exactly set the world alight since. Sure to be involved but too short a price would put me off.
Kalypso’chance: Highly tried in NHF races and obviously well thought of but has yet to prove it at this level. He will handle the ground the trip is an unknown and his jumping could be an issue.
Frankie John: Trip and ground should suit and runner up to two decent sorts over hurdles and although an unlikely winner as he is not from one of the big yards is likely to be overpriced and would be one of the more solid options for an extra markets bet.
Walks In June: Won on hurdle debut looks a natural and could be anything but as he is not proven on the ground or trip. ? One to watch in the markets.
Blue Waters: Well beaten but in a decent race last time out against own sex has the allowance here but with doubts over the trip and distance being back up against the boys makes it a big ask.
The Big Clubman: Ex decent PTP so trip not an issue ground an unknown won last time out on debut and has place prospects but an unlikely winner.
I’ll Sort That: Ticks most of the boxes will handle the ground proven at the trip had Ma Jacks Hill behind him last time out and just had the measure of Theflyingking in a NHF race. Looks a likley player here.
Ma Jacks Hill: Finished second to I’ll Sort That last time out trip and ground to suit should again be in the mix at the finish.
Theflyingking: Interesting in that trip and ground should suit had the race at his mercy when falling on debut and if confidence not shaken is one to watch in the markets.
Pheonix Arizona: Looks out his depth here trip not an issue ground not a given but yet to show enough to be competitive here.MikeKeymasterHi
Here we go again with the fantastic four (plus two winners) and a chance at the rollover on the lottery.Wales -12 to beat Japan @ 1-1
Wetherby 2.35 Smokeringinthedark @ 6-1
Cheltenham 12.35 Secret Force @ 5-2
Cheltenham 1.45 Be Aware @ 2-1
Navan 2.45 Found A Fifty @ 9-2
Navan 3.20 Lovely Hurling @ 9-2The winning numbers this week are 4,7,16,23,26 and 50
MikeKeymasterHi
I am assuming you mean Sundays race Rob which may work out even better than that as three of them I believe hold dual entries and are likely to run on Saturday in the 1.35 (also at Navan). ?Thanks Suds we have to start somewhere and no pressure there’s no Kit Kat challenge for this race. !
MikeKeymasterHi
I have received a few queries over this and one or two people feel this is a little bit out of there comfort zone in compiling tissue odds etc. But the best way I can get around that is to give everyone an idea of how this might possibly work. Here are a list of categories that we could use that might form pieces of the final jigsaw. Some of these will be of use others might dismiss them out of hand but its a starting point.The type of race or strength in depth of the race itself.
Assessing a rating for each horses ability ie RPR Racing Post Rating or OR Official Rating etc
Trainer Form
Jockey Form
Speed Rating (How fast can your horse run or has your horse run in the past)
Ground Conditions (Is your horse likely to handle the ground)
Weight Carried (Some horses run better off light weights etc)
Value (Is your selection priced up at odds that give you an edge)The list goes on and on and I know I have differing opinions to the rest of the world on some of the above topics but such is life. No one is going to shoot you down for putting down an opinion or asking a question. However if you see something that you feel comfortable with that you have some input on ie Trainer Form etc (go for it) no pressure. I will be the first to admit I struggle with how the going effects the runners hence asking Suds for the revamp of the previously mentioned going/ conditions data which is now being updated to hurdle races (may or may not help).
This is turning into an old mans rambling now so lets find a race and start the ball rolling. ? -
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