[Mike]

Hi
An interesting topic came up the other day which opened another bag of worms which I thought might be worth a mention on here.
I had via email etc been discussing independently with Suds, Rob and Steve and had also run by the tech department Sean the notion of speed ratings and how much faster does a horse travel over each distance and everybody had a differing opinion.
Now the Tech department Sean (Happy Birthday) will state the obvious undeniable fact that the times do not lie. Suds and I have developed the data base with Sean but have differing opinions over the use of such data. Steve covers most races and distances and Rob tends to deal in the better class of horse.
Now having had numerous sleepless nights over this and having discussed the idea individually as mentioned above the main issues are that the finishing time of the winning horse is the only really reliable yardstick. I know there will be instances where this can be wrong depending on how the race is run but we are generalizing here.
The question for the Bletchley Park team is how do you work out what allowance to make over each distance for horses finishing down the field (out of the frame) This is of particular interest to me as I am already dabbling by trying to work out a speed rating for the horse that finished bang in the middle of each race to use in the bet builders.
The second possibly more interesting conundrum is that are speed ratings and especially weight allowances of greater consequence relevant to the quality of horse. A decent horse from a top yard (See Robs selections) dropping into handicap company may not be slowed down by top weight but the milkmans horse (see my selections) may need all the help he or she can get when running in 0-100. ?

[Mike]

Hi
No joy for me and still at the bottom of the list points wise and being thrashed at my own game….lol.
Tommorow sees a couple of interesting races over at Cheltenham with Sir Gino taking on The New Lion being the main event (competittion wise) as both have a generous following in the competition.
2.25 Grey Dawning (Suds)
3.00 Sir Gino (Steve,Andy, Mgame and Joe)
3.00 The New Lion (Steve,Rob,Andy and Joe)
Both of the above races are +15 point bonus races and Steve Andy and Joe look nailed on either way in the 3.00.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I had also been keeping an eye out for this race as I had Quai De Bourbon running but also bypassed the race as the ground was atrocious and you know my feelings on backing in such conditions.
On the plus side with regard to Jordans and Quai De Bourbon although a tough race I honestly believe most jockeys did the honorable thing here and eased there horses down or pulled up when realising there chance had gone.
I have a feeling theses two will meet again somewhere down the line and I sense a bet builder here or a kit kat challenge….lol.

[Mike]

Hi
Rackemandstackem pulling up rather spoilt the day as Harty Cup placed fourth and Poets Oath placed sixth. Compund that by me rushing this morning and not putting up the prices or BOG attached extra’s and we end up with a paltry +0.25. However better than a loss and this brings the new total’s after my schoolboy mathematics from yesterday to the following running totals.

To Follow Horses (Hurdlers) -3.05 points
To Follow Horses (Chasers) -1 point
Bet Builders -3.2 points
Extra Market Wagers -0.15
Total to Date – 7.40 points

Harty Cup was the only To Follow horse today we just took the 6 places on the other two as the extra market prices were not great but there returns still count towards the Extra Market running total. I have updated this now as I have nothing until the weekend and it will clear the page for updates for the other threads.

[Mike]

Hi
With the first batch of non runners declared I have already lost Space Warrior and will have to wait a bit longer for my extra market bets . But I have taken the 13-2 for 6 places on Harty Cup as he has started to shorten. I will leave the thread open and edit when I get back as I have to pop out.
That was worth the wait with all seven non runners now declared Sky are still showing 6 places so our bets for the day now look like this….

Harty Cup 1.5 points each way @ 13-2
Rackemandstackem 0.5 points each way
Poets Oath 0.5 each way
All of the above for a top 9 finish at 1 point (4-1) plus 25% bet365 (bet builder) bonus for 5-1.

[Mike]

Hi
I have Quai De Bourbon running in the 3.30 at Gowran Park tomorrow and with a bit of luck might pick up a few points and get out of last place…lol.

[Mike]

Hi
We have four runners in our target race tomorrow and a range of possible bets which we fill in as the extra markets and offers become available and with 6 places available are hoping for a good set of options.

Gowran Park 2.20

Harty Cup 7-1
Rackemandstackem 14-1
Space Warrior 14-1
Poets Oath 16-1

I am hoping for an each way single on the TFH horse Harty Cup and couple of Extra Markets wagers and/or a bet builder utilizing the other three selections.

[Mike]

Hi
I am finally playing catch up after a few setbacks and updates etc and have just tallied my results to date which are not impressive reading but it is early days and I am still confident.
The Horses To Follow (until they win) portion of this thread that proved to be a money spinner last year on Ridiculous Ideas for 2025 has had a slow start but when following horses the clue is in the title. I back the horse (as last year) to win +10 points but the fact that only 43% of horses in training ever actually win a race gives you an idea of the problem. With this in mind I do not expect all of my to follow horses to win but that does not mean they will end up in negative equity (in deficit) on the thread.
The reasoning behind the above point is that statistically 70% of horses hit the frame (place) so as long as you can a get decent enough price you can still keep your selections onside. This brings up the not too popular idea of expanding the thread by dabbling with Chase races and going into the extra markets such as betting without the favorite’s Bet Builders etc and ultimately the dreaded exchange markets.
I make no excuses for altering the 2025 thread as its my pram and If want to throw my toys out of it I will…lol.
I just like a new challenge and I really want to make the most of the data base we use and are still altering/working on as we speak. But I will split the thread up as promised and here are the results to date which are going the way of the old enemy so far.
To Follow Horses (Hurdlers) -3.5 points
To Follow Horses (Chasers) -1 point
Bet Builders -2.2 points
Extra Market Wagers -0.95
Total to Date – 7.65 points
The last few bets Little Ivy (Extra markets), Aswellasabentley (Horse To Follow) and the bet builder with Aswellasabentley & Surrey Force all returned a small profit but all were subject to deductions due to non runners. It is what it is….

I do hopefully have a few options going tomorrow in the 2.20 at Gowran Park (subject to non runners) and will update tonight after finishing some tiling in the kitchen.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I have started the Ante Post Wagers thread off and linked it to this thread as potential reading. ? It has already (hit wise) stirred a bit of interest from some old followers (as opposed to members). Therefore I will start working on updating my end of the Cheltenham ante posts (awaiting NRNB) which will primarily be the Novice and Juvenile races.
I only mention this as I am wondering whether you have a list of races you will be covering and on the flip side are there any races you will be avoiding. ?

[Mike]

Hi
I will post a full update of the different directions I am expanding this thread into over the next few days but am already in trouble with the bet builders but they are likely to produce the biggest profit if I can work the oracle. ? In the meantime I will post a another small bet builder to see if we can claw something back.

Down Royal 2.20 Aswellasabentley & Surrey Force both for a top 10 finish 3-1.

[Mike]

Hi
I am busy working on the split G but will in the meantime place another couple of wagers over at Down Royal.

2.20 Aswellasabentley @ 10-1 for 6 places
2.20 Surrey Force @ 40-1 for 6 places

Both are a bit high in the weights so only really warrant 1/2 point each way tonight but we will be looking at a bet builder tomorrow.

[Mike]

Hi
With Jade De Grugy winning as expected Joe has gone into the lead this month on +22.49 with Mgame in second on +21 Steve is close up in third on +18.47. There is not a lot in it though and this months competition will most likely be decided (once again) on the last day of the month over at Leopardstown when a few of the big guns come out again.
Although it is a two day meeting with some big points on offer the second day falls on the first of February so is likely to put someone in the driving seat for the February competition as well.
The overall competition see’s Joe take the lead with +121.76 Suds is stuck in second still on +109.07 and Rob is closing in again in third on +107.41.

[Mike]

Hi
That was a bit of turn up today with Jonbon turning Il Etait Temps over but that does indeed make this month very interesting.
Courtesy of Jonbon Mgame picked up +21 points today and Steve (Hopefull) picked up another +6.12 on Heron In The Park which leaves Mgame (although with just the one win) as the new leader in this months competition. Steve now moves into second with +18.47 but now has three wins already for the month.
So now its over to Thurles tomorrow to see if Joe can get involved as he could go into the lead and grab his third win this month if Jade De Grugy wins.

[Mike]

Hi
Well we did manage the elusive treble again last week but it was by default due to a non runner but they all count.
Here are this weekends super six which I have a good feeling about.

Ospreys -3 to beat Montpellier @ 10-11
Ascot 12.25 Winston Junior @ 5-4
Ascot 1.00 The Jukebox Kid (without In d’Or) @ 21-10
Taunton 1.32 Miss Carbo @ 3-1
Taunton 2.43 Cuban Court @ 11-4
Ascot 4.05 Kasino Des Mottes (without Laguna Beach & The Burren Man) @ 8-5

The lottery numbers will be 4,7,16,23,26 & 50.

[Mike]

Hi
We have a few more runners from our competition entries that look likely to line up this weekend which might add a bit of interest….
Saturday
Ascot 3.30 Il Etait Temps (Rob)
Ascot 3.30 Jonbon (Mgame)
Taunton 1.32 Heron In The Park (Steve)
Sunday
Thurles 1.10 Daydream Nation (Moi)
Thurles 2.15 Jade De Grugy (Rob, Joe @ Moi)

I would be amazed if a couple of these did not score some points and I will update the competition totals at the end of the weekend but just as a reminder to those who have free bets to be used in the side competition make sure you post them on here or let me know well in advance so that I can place the bet and post the selection.
Suds is currently on +£9.50 which can now be split and also has an unused £5 bet
Rob has 2x unused £5 bets
Joe also has 2x £5 unused bets
All initial free bets are £5 win (on your competition entries) you can bet without the favorite/s and once used the remaining balance can be split into half (if you so wish) but once again must be used as win bets on your competition entries or cashed in at the end of the competition.

[Author]

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