[Mike]

I am going to bypass Wednesdays handicap’s as they enough to give an aspirin a headache and I will need more time with those. Therefore I will skip to Thursday for the first handicap race of that day the Pertemps H’cap Hurdle Final I have been sweet on one of Phillip Hobbs likely runners Wait For Me as if going straight to the festival this will be his first run over three miles since the wind op and that might just make the difference.
His run behind the useful Paddleyourowncanoe (over the shorter trip) last time out should have ensured he will hit the 140 mark and be eligible to run and the odds of 33-1 nrnb on offer with bet365 this morning may yet sway me to chance this one.
I say chance this one because if you look at the following statistical analysis he would have been fine up until recently but the race dynamic has changed over the last three years with a much younger horse has won it and all three were Irish raiders.
This race as with so many handicaps has been a graveyard for favourites and in general the more fancied runners at the head of the market. Also previous Cheltenham form or experience appears to have little impact on the result.
However here are the stas as usual but bear in mind the last three years results as mentioned as the trends appear to be on the move.
9/12 winners were aged between 6and 8 years old
10/12 winners had their last run with the last 48 days
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 3 miles or further
12/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles
9/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
10/12 winners were rated 133 or higher
11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
There is another selection The Organist at 20-1 nrnb that follows the same principle as Mr Big Shot who was mentioned for the Ultima H’Cap in that I believe this J P McManus owned one has been put by with this race in mind. I can see no futher declarations in sight and no festival entries made and Oliver Sherwood is more than capable of getting one ready.
As you can see I am already beginning to waver and struggle with the handicaps but as mentioned I do not even know if any of the above are going to run but such is the fun of trying to find that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
nb: Having just logged out I recieved notification that A Great View another JP horse who blundered two out in this race last year has just been declared. I backed this horse last year and this one fits the recent profile to a treat is a generous enough 20-1 nrnb and if honest would be my current preference of the three.

• This reply was modified 6 years, 10 months ago by Mike.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I am jumping the gun a bit with the handicaps but the cut off date for the final declarations is tomorrow and with the weights being declared hopefully by next Monday if you are quick you can sometimes get that all important few days in between the two announcements to search for the holy grail.
I know I am ever the dreamer but I think you know me well enough by now to realise that I do not follow the obvious way of doing things….lol. It was really nice to see how we both came up with the same 100-1 shot yesterday albeit a non runner. Just out of interest what would you have made of Thursday’s runner Annie Odds I am beginning to worry I am getting to predictable…lol.
However I digress Mr Big Shot I can see fits most of your handicap trends but obviously only runs twice a year so will crash and burn on that one.
I am now moving on to the next handicap which will complete a review of all of the races for day one of the festival. The race is the Close Brothers Novice H’Cap Chase it strangely has the same quirk as the Ultima in that the 6/7 of the last winners have been in some form of headgear and it also is not a good race for the favourites the statistical analysis is as follows.
9/12 winners were aged 6 or 7
12/14 winner were in the top six in the betting
10/12 winners weighed between 10st 11lbs & 11st 8lbs
10/14 winners had won or been placed last time out
11/12 winners had their last run within the last 45 days
10/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
10/12 winners had at least 2 runs around the 2 1/2 mile mark 19-21 furlongs
11/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
11/12 winners were rated 133 or higher
12/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
9/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
This is not getting any easier but Tom George’s Clondaw Castle looks a likely candidate and a lot will depend on where he goes this week as he one entry on Thursday over 2 miles and one on Wedensday over 2 1/2 miles. Should he run over the longer trip on Wednesday I would be more inclined to take the 10-1 on offer as should he bolt up he will surely shorten up just after the race.
Secret Investor has been beaten twice since going chasing but it has been in very good company he holds no Cheltenham entries to date and could well be being lined up for one of the handicaps.
Talkischeap I have already tagged for the RSA and Mr Big Shot is under consideration for the Ultima H’Cap so I will hold fire on a decision here until I see where Clondaw Castle goes this week but he is at the top of my list so far.

[Mike]

This last part of phase one has caused me the most headaches as I had to revert back to the Mares Novice Hurdle to obtain the fifth selection. It was still a difficult choice but I feel that Lust for Glory will be the better horse in a truly run race. Although this looks the weakest bet to date I am happy enough and will now take a back seat while I start work on the handicaps.
I had to miss out on the Arkle Chase as the original selection Dynamite Dollars will miss the rest of the season.
I have had several selections that have just been too short in price for ante post betting but bear in mind I am targetting each way doubles with early bets and am looking for runners that should turn up on the day and look to have been targetted at the specific race.
The last of the phase one bets are as follows
JLT Novices Chase Kildisart 16-1
Mares Novice Hurdle Lust For Glory 11-1
Triumph Hurdle Carlo Biraghi 16-1
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Kapcorse 25-1
Foxhunter Chase Caid Du Berlais 20-1
This is the usual ante post mix of 10x 1 point each way doubles and a 1 point each way accumulator at 1/4 odds non runner no bet. The only change is I had already missed the 25-1 on offer on Caid Du Berlais which amazingly had shortened up whilst I was typing..lol.

[Mike]

This leaves the Foxhunters Chase as the last race to cover before consolidating my first round of Cheltenham options. Although it is a bit early to dive into there is one I have had my eye on since last year so will take the bull by the horns and have an early punt on this one as it runs tomorrow and a good run would shorten the price right up.
I will start with the usual statstical analysis which is as follows.
10/12 winners were aged 8 or older
8/12 winners won or placed on their last run before Cheltenham
9/12 winners had their last run within the last 43 days
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
8/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at over 3 miles
10/12 winners had at least 8 previous chase runs
11/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
9/12 winners had a rating of 134 or higher
9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run that season
By the nature of the race it an older more exprienced horse with a proven abiltiy over fences that prospers here as many horse do not make it to the end of the race.
The horse I am putting up for the race is Caid Du Burlais who was fifth in this race last year and although hailing from a small yard this runner was inherited from the Nicholls yard just down the road where there are still close ties.
Although losing out to the Nicholls winner Pacha Du Polder last year the ground had gone against the selection by the last race and I fancy a better run can be had this year.
The price on offer with bet365 is 25-1 which I will take today when I have put together my final pre-emptive strike at the festival before moving on to the handicaps etc.

[Mike]

Right onward and upward as they say and I will bypass the Randox (being a handicap) and head on to the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle and as you may have noticed I love my hurdle racing. This race is a particular favourite of mine as it throws up plenty of big priced winners with two 33-1 shots winning in the last five years and the lowest priced winner in that time frame was 11-1 the stats are as follows.
10/12 winners were aged 6 or 7
10/12 winners had at least 1 run over 3 miles
9/12 winners had at least 1 win over 3 miles
12/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
9/12 winners were rated 140 or higher
10/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race
12/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
11/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Cheltenham form is not essential for this race but is of some use as about 50% of the previous winners had run here before usually winning.
The main problem here is that most of my shortlist including Easy Game and Sams Profile hold multiple entries between at least two races if not three and with Birchdale now being a little short in price has limited my options further.
However fortune favours the bold (I really must take more water with it..lol) and I will put Paul Nicholls Kapcorse up as my selection generally available between 16’s and 20’s bet365 have gone a very generous 25-1 which I will take.
Kapcorse is another French import who has taken time to settle but looks to have filled out this year has looked really impressive on his last two starts and looks certain to appreciate the step up in trip.

[Mike]

Hi David
The more ealy doors opions the better for me as I tend to do all my Cheltenham betting in advance primarilry because of the way I bet but also to avoid be swayed by all the hype before the off. It is a risk not knowing the ground etc but 80% of the time Cheltenham rides good to soft but you pays your money and takes your chances ante post.

Well thanks to Annie Odds yesterday I have enough loose change in my pocket to cover the ante post bets and still buy a Walnut Whip (can you still get those..lol).?
So if my calculations are correct we now head straight to day four and the first race of the day the JCB Triumph Hurdle for which relevant stats are limited but of use.
I say limited as obviously it is for 4yo’s only so limits a few of the usual options and previous Cheltenham form does not appear to make any great difference results wise.
9/12 winners have been in the top 3 in the betting
12/12 winners had their last run no more than 55 days ago
10/12 winners had at least 2 runs about the 2 mile mark
11/12 winners had at least 1 win around the 2 mile mark
11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
10/12 winners were rated 139 or higher
11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs that season
11/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Sir Eric has tamed all his serious rivals to date and Tiger Tap Tap and yard rival Gardens Of Babylon both look well held which whittles my short list even further. Paul Nicholls has two nice imports Pic D’Orhy may well need soft ground and has yet to see a UK racecourse but Quel Destin is proven hurdler and has battled back to get his head in front on his last two runs which proves his mental strength but my concern is one race too many syndrome as he goes out again tomorrow.
This leaves the joker in the pack which is Carlo Biraghi who has only had the one hurdle run but could not have been more impressive and using Andulusa and Pienta as yardsticks against Sir Eric’s form would be in with a shout on the day. This well bred ex flat horse was considered good enough to run in the Irish Derby and although beaten was not disgraced and at 16-1 nrnb is worth the risk.

• This reply was modified 6 years, 10 months ago by Mike.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Nice to see we have found some common ground in what is a difficult task and once again although Defi De Seuil is probably the one to be on he is just to short in price for the type of place option bet I am targeting.
Vinndication was on my short list but I could not with any certainty know which race he would go for so not wishing to decimate my bets before the actual day I was swayed towards Kidisart as the logical selection due to the type of bet in use.
Thanks again for your input over the last few days as they have been testing for me to say the least but as of Tuesday’s turn of events it will give me more time to get stuck into the rest of the meeting and hopefully conclude phase one before taking on the handicaps.

Regards Mike

[Mike]

I will now move on to day three of the festival and try my luck on the opening fixture the JLT Novice Chase for which the stats for the race are limited as it has only been run under it’s current guise for the last eight years but here goes:
8/8 winners were aged 6 or 7
6/8 were in the top 3 in the betting
7/8 winners ran in the last 54 days
6/8 winners had won last time out
8/8 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
7/8 winners had at least 2 previous runs about the 2 1/2 mile mark
6/8 had at least 1 previous win on or about the 2 1/2 mile mark
8/8 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles
6/8 winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles
7/8 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs
7/8 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
7/8 winners were rated 145 or higher
6/8 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 or 2 race
8/8 winners had at least 2 runs that season
7/8 winners had at least 2 wins that season
The problem here is that a lot of the runners will also be declared for the RSA chase over the longer trip but this then could also be an opportunity using the non runner no bet option. The theory is that you cannot lose your stake but if the defections from this race go in your favour the price you have obtained now could be a gift by race day.
With that in mind I will out up Ben Pauling’s Kildisart as my selection which is currently showing at 16-1 nrnb with bet365 and looks sure to start the race unless my tipping curse strike’s again…lol.
Kildisart looks to be improving with every run certainly fits the profile is highly thought of at the yard looks a solid option for the type of bet being used and makes for a good first selection for bet number three.

[Mike]

This leaves me in a position to place my second ante post bet for the festival using the following runners all taken at the prices quoted at 1/4 odds non runner on bet.
Supreme Novice Hurdle Mister Fisher 11-1
OLBG Mares Hurdle Roksana 16-1
Ballymore Novice Hurdle City Island 10-1
RSA Chase Talkischeap 33-1
Champion Bumper Abracadras 25-1
This bet is again 10x 1 point each way doubles and a 1 point each way accumulator.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Not really that bad Rob Delta Work is I believe the real deal but just too short in price for the purpose of my betting startedgy (for what it is worth..lol) and On The Blind Side was on my short list. However it will be intersting to see what we come up with when the handicap races come under scrutiny when the weights are announced at the end of the month.

I have five selections in place for another wager but am not entirely happy with the price on my second choice Cilaos Emery in the Arkle so will bypass that one and move on to the next race which by bypassing the next two handicaps which brings me to the Champion Bumper.
Here are the statistics to kick the post off in what will be a tricky race to evaluate as this race will often spring a big surprise and its runners are always to follow next season.
11/12 winners were aged 5 or 6
12/12 winners had won last time out
11/12 had a previous win over the trip
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous flat runs
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous flat win
11/12 winners were rated 118 or higher
12/12 winners had at least 1 run and 1 win that season
Cheltenham form has no bearing on this race and the distance raced is obviously a standard so the majority of the runners will have done the trip.
I have a selection to put forward which I will take today as bet365 have now gone non runner no bet on all the races and are offering the biggest price by far on this selection which will be Abacadabras from the Gordon Elliot yard. This one won first time out and then ran out behind a running rail when well in contention behind Envoi Allen (who looks to be the yards main chance in the race).
However as mentiond throughout this thread I am looking for a each way option and I believe the yard will throw several runners at this race and although generally only available ante post at 12-1 with bet365 offering 25-1 this morning I would be a fool not to move on this one today under nrnb.

• This reply was modified 6 years, 10 months ago by Mike.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Well considering we sing from different hymn sheets the fact that we have still managed to come up with the same song on several occasions is no mean feat considering the amount of entries we are dealing with at this early stage.
So on I plod and now head for the RSA Chase and it does not get any easier.
As per usual I will start off with the statical analysis which is a follows:
10/12 winners were aged 7
12/12 winners had at least placed on their previous run before Cheltenham
11/12 winners had run was within 40 days
11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 3 miles
11/12 had at least 1 win over 3 miles
11/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
11/12 winners were rated 144 or higher
10/12 winners had previously won a grade 1-3 race
11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
12/12 had at least 1 win that season
Even though it is a chase race I have once again included previous hurdle form as it does seem to have a bearing on the outcome of the race.
I am going to take a long shot here and hope that Talkischeap who is still available at 33-1 nrnb will do me proud on the day. This one has been running with merit up against the likes of On The Blind Side and Le Bague Au Roi and is still coming along. He jumps well fits the bill nicely and if troubling the judge in the 888 next Saturday could well be a big ante post mover.

[Mike]

The next two races after the OLBG Mares Hurdle will be another handicap and the Amateur Riders race so I will bypass these two for the time being as they are too complicated to start on at present until the field sizes are reduced or the weights announced.
Thia means I will be heading over to day two of the festival and going straight onto the Ballymore Novice Hurdle for which the statical analysis is as follows:
12/12 winners were aged 5 or 6
9/12 winners ran within the last 60 days
9/12 winners won on their last run
12/12 winners placed on their previous run
11/12 winners had at least 1 win on or about the 2 1/2 mile mark
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
10/12 winners were rated 142 or higher
10/12 had at least 3 runs that season
12/12 had at least 1 win that season, 10/12 had at least 2 wins that season
Not having previously run or won at Cheltenham was a negative in this race and the favourites do not have a particularly strong record in this race. the last two points are probabaly due to the fact that this race traditionally has a large field of runners and resembles a cavalry charge at the start.
Brewin’upastorm had taken my fancy some time ago but I am unconvinced of his ability to travel at pace which is a definite requiremant here. So I have reluctantly discarded him and this has left me with two nice options the first was Beakstown who will get the trip and is a better horse when ridden up with a strong pace (as this race will be) and City Island an Irish raider who I have had my eye on for some time.
I will go with City Island 10-1 nrnb as it is difficult to fault the way he won last time out with any amount in hand and having previously beaten Dallas Des Picton who has gone onto to win his next two starts the form is as solid as it gets.

[Mike]

The next race on the card on the opening day at Cheltenham will be the Ultima Handicap and all the handicap races will be dealt with at the end of this thread when the weights have been announced which usually occurs on or about the last few days in February. Therefore I will tackle the OLBG Mares Hurdle next.
I will start with the stats as usual but these are not as accurate as they could be due to the fact the same horse Quevega won the race six times on the bounce.
8/11 winners were aged 5-7
10/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
9/11 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham
7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
5/11 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
10/11 winners had at least 2 previous about the 2 1/2 mile mark
10/11 had at least 1 previous win about the 2 1/2 mile mark
10/11 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles
9/11 had at least 3 wins over hurdles
9/11 winners had a rating of 150 or higher
8/11 winners had at least previous win in a Grade 1-3 race
Now this looks a daunting task with the likes of Apples Jade Laurina and Benie Des Dieux at the head of the market but with only the last named likely to turn up on the day striking a decent each way ante post bet should be more than possible.
Unless Benie Des Dieux either does not turn up or suffers a mishap it is difficult to see her being beaten but with Stormy Ireland being an unkown quantity and Lady Buttons still holding a Chase option at the festival I will take the 16-1 nrnb on Dan Skelton’s Roksana. This mare has improved with every run to date is a very lightly raced 7yo who was not disgraced behind Buveur D’Air last time out and may have have been laid out with this race in mind and hopefully the yard will have left a little bit up there sleeve for the big occasion.

[Mike]

I will now head back to the first race of the festival and re-list the statistics for the opening race The Supreme Novice Hurdle.
19 of the last 24 winners had run in the last 45 days.
19 of the last 22 winners had won last time out.
13 of the last 15 winners had run over hurdles at least 4 times previously.
15 of the last 17 winners were Irish trained runners.
13 of the last 14 winners were either 5 or 6yo’s.
No horse has ever won the race wearing headgear.
The most obvious difference with the statistical analysis of this race is that previous Cheltenham form is not a requisite.
I had originally been looking at Fakir D’Oudaries due to his Chelthenham form but had been concerned over the short ante post price and will now bearing the above stat in mind put forward Mister Fisher who is still available at 14-1 but the 11-1 nrnb still showing with some firms looks a nice price.
Mister Fisher is not the yards only runner as they have the ante post favourite in Angels Breath however trainer Nicky Henderson has implied on several occasions that there is not that much between them.
It would be fair to say he is not as fluent as some of his rivals but has been improving with every run and could do no more than beat what was in front of him in the Supreme trial and looks likely to come on again.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
It is a staking plan that works quite well with ante post as a non runner does not decimate the bet and targetting the place part of the bet still leaves the possibilty of a decent win payout should something go amiss with a short priced ante post favourite.
Obviously todays revelations over the equine flu could be one of the factors but lets hope that blows over sooner than later.
I do like the look of your suggestion over Leoncavallo as he fits the Key Race system that you know I am really keen on.
I will continue with this thread as soon as I can get around the hacking issue.

[Author]

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