[Mike]

Hi
With Brighton getting the required cards and Liverpool getting the requred corners the one factor I had not factored in was Liverpool not scoring 🙁
But this has given me an option on linking this thread with the Beat The Lotto (£) thread and mixing up the late kick offs listed above with the horses listed on the thread mentioned.

The one fixture we had not filled in was the Man City v Brighton match for which we will go with the following.

Man City to win with over 2 goals in the match @ 7-10
Everton V Crystal Palace @ 5-6
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton
Chelsea v Man United @ 4-7
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea
2.40 Cheltenham Bella Scintilla @ 11-10 bettng without Pied Piper and Knight Salute
3.20 Doncaster Hispanic @ 5-4 betting without Aesop’s Fable and Bresson
3.15 Cheltenham Editeur De Guye @ 6-4 betting without Clear Runway and Dads Lad
As we have to start all over again we will pick these up in trebles back at the base stakes to see if we can get another bet started. ?

[Mike]

Hi
We have an interesting option on this thread using selections from the new thread Joe’s dream punt 🙂

2.40 Cheltenham Bella Scintilla @ 11-10 bettng without Pied Piper and Knight Salute
3.20 Doncaster Hispanic @ 5-4 betting without Aesop’s Fable and Bresson
3.15 Cheltenham Editeur De Guye @ 6-4 betting without Clear Runway and Dads Lad

These will be used with the three late Premiership games today as listed on the new thread.
Man City to win with over 2 goals in the match @ 7-10
Everton V Crystal Palace @ 5-6
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton
Chelsea v Man United @ 4-7
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea

These are being used in the usual win trebles and win accumulator the old lottery numbers will be used and the ticket has been purchased.

[Mike]

Hi
I will pop this idea down now before the kick off in the lunchtime game. I am starting to like the new idea but will am not sure which way to go wth the bet/s. Here are the suggested punts for today.
Nottingham Forest v Liverpool
Over 0 cards for Nottingham Forest
Over 1 goal for Liverpool
Over 4 corners for Liverpool
Bet already placed but I will use our reclaimed stake to go in again at the now 20-23 odds on offer to try and start off a new line.
Everton V Crystal Palace
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton

This bet comes out @ 5-6 but looks a reasonable shout unless someone tells me otherwise. ??

Chelsea v Man United
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea

The odds on this game are short @ 4-7 but the idea is to try and keep the lines going as the fun comes later as the stakes build up.

I will be looking at the Man City v Brighton game later and will update the thread after the first result is known and we can then plot a course for the above bets. ?

 

[Mike]

Hi
For our next trick we will try the following bet in the Nottingham Forest  v Liverpool game @ 8-11
Over 0 cards for Nottingham Forest
Over 1 goal for Liverpool
Over 4 corners for Liverpool
As this is a lunchtime kick off and assuming the bet comes off we will be looking to go straight back in for the Chelsea v Man United game later in the day. This time will be looking for Chelsea Corners, Man United bookings and a goal in the game.

[Mike]

Hi Joe
I was waiting for a price betting without the favourite and missed it. 🙁 Of course the only one that beat him home was the bloody favourite…lol.
I have nothing for tomorrow so will swing back into the football and see if I cannot get something going on this new bet. ?

[Mike]

Hi
We cannot get a bet without the favourite at present so will try a long shot each way treble at Sligo using the following selections.

3.35 Let Her Flow @ 28-1 for 5 places
4.45 Nuttoridge @ 25-1 for 5 places
5.20 Tomas O Maille @ 22-1

[Mike]

Hi
Now that was a lot easier as the bet was home and hosed with over twenty minutes still to play. However you would not have been able to have put that bet into a ten fold accumulator as it would have been limited by most bookmakers to trebles.
We will try and prove this was no fluke by trying it again in the Nottingham Forest v Liverpool game which is another for which both teams have statistics we can factor in.
We now have a profit of +4.55 points to use on the next game as we have taken our original stake back out so the next bet is an all or nothing to see if we cannot get a slow burn accumulator started.
The factors to use on this game are that Forest concede goals and collect cards for fun. Liverpool score goals and force corners at will. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Pulsating did us proud by bringing both of the each way extra bets in and with Ucandoit placing third we had a nice day at the office and finished on very decent looking +11.6 point profit on the day.  🙂
We have an old friend running tomorrow in Thomas O’Maille who goes in the lucky last at Sligo. We will hold fire on betting on him unless he shortens from the 25-1 currently on offer as I would not mind a bet without the favourite/s if possible.

[Mike]

Hi
As you will have noticed exactly the same situation is occuring in that in each 10 fold bet placed, Joe will do just above average in getting 5 selections in. This corresponds with the previous few bets bearing in mind the average is approx 4.5 bets in every 10 at approximate odds of 1-1.
The reason behind this I believe is that you can only bet an accumulator of above three selections as trebles unless you use the sites pre set bets. If you attempt to use ie bet builders you will be restricted to trebles or less in some cases.
So tonight we will use a bet of our own to see what would happen, only we will revert to a higher 5 point stake with a view to doubling up on our next bet.
Fulham v Aston Villa (30+ booking points + Over 1.5 goals + Mitrovic 1+ shot on target) @ 10-11

[Mike]

Hi
At long last we are back racing and here are our selections for Thurles tomorrow.

3.10 Pulsating 100-1 but we are going with 21-1 for 10 places and 27-1 for 9 places.
3.45 Ucandoit @ 25-1 for 5 places Sky bet.

Apologies for the late edit but as several people pointed out it is always best to put the name of the horse down you are backing…lol. Old age does not come alone, 🙁 but in fairness I was distracted working on a new bet for the weekend involving the competitions threads. 🙂
You will also notice there are slightly revised prices on the each way extra markets for Pulsating as they had changed by the time we got around to placing the bet.

[Mike]

Hi
I do wish I hadn’t said anything about the 25% losses… lol. I have just tuned in to find Palace losing 1-0 and to find that Brighton have had 15 attempts on goal 67% possession and 7 corners but can’t score. I think it’s time for bed and back to the horses on Thursday….lol.

[Mike]

Hi
With no NH racing on offer in Ireland until Thursday I have devoted a bit of time to this new (fun) thread.
As previously mentioned I have no expectations of getting a full accumulator in but am finding it a bit of fun dabbling with the maths side of things to see where the break even point comes in and to find out whether or not it would be possible to get a return on such a bet.
I will stick to the Premiership as there are more statistics readily available. 🙂

Brighton v Nottingham Forest Brighton to win @ 4-11
Crystal Palace v Wolves Crystal Palace to win @ 6-5
Bournemouth v Southampton BTTS @ 8-11
Brentford v Chelsea BTTS @ 8-11
Liverpool v West Ham BTTS @ 4-6
Man United v Tottenham BTTS @ 8-15
Fulham v Aston Villa Fulham to win @ 9-5
Leicester City v Leeds BTTS @ 8-15
Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Liverpool to win + Over 3.5 goals @ 11-8
Man City v Brighton Man City to win + 2.5 goals @ 4-7
Everton v Crystal Palace BTTS @ 4-5
Chelsea v Man United BTTS @ 8-13

Now I believe the cut off point here at the odds taken would be to take the 220x 9 folds on offer which gives you a 25% margin of error (losing bets) without losing your shirt. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Although as suspected both lines lost out, both had 4 winners from 10 bets which is about average (dependent on the odds of the individual wager). It was not as bad as I thought and having cut my teeth on the idea. I will have another go this week (only in somewhat of a different format). I am still working on the details but will post something by Tuesday. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Alpesh Amin ended up being a non runner and we have very little on the horizon for this thread until Thurles on Thursday later this week.
However at the halfway stage we are well in profit for the month now being +33.80 points up so will end up having aother succesful month which is a nice position to be in.  🙂

[Mike]

Hi
I have had a request to post a wager today but there is not much about, but over at Cork you could try…
1.50 Alpesh Amin 25-1 but 16-1 for 5 places looks best as there are no odds available bettng without the favourite’s at present. 🙁 Angelsworknovertime 40-1 is one to follow but this race is a tough ask for either horse to able to get involved.

[Author]

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