[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I apologise if I sound like a broken record, but I would try and keep things as simple as possible and would use data from an existing ‘trusted’ source in respect of both the ‘fiction’ variables, as follows:

The going correction from the Racing Post ‘analysis of winning times’ section which can be found on the online results page provides their interpretation of the going based on the actual times recorded and often differs from the official going supplied by the track. This is especially important where the hurdles track has a different configuration from the chase track and/or the going changes during the day due to rain, or strong sunshine/drying winds.

As to whether the track is is stiff (quick) or stiff (slow), again I would again use the Racing Post Standard Times as my starting point and divide the time for each race distance for each track by the race distance to obtain a time per furlong figure for each race distance. The quickest time per furlong figure across all racetracks can the be allotted a baseline figure (say 100), then a course/distance correction can be calculated for every distance at every track – these would all be less than 100.

If you want to be really radical, you could always use the Race IQ finishing times for every horse in the race rather than calculating them using the lengths beaten to estimate their finishing times, which can vary depending on how tired the horse is at the end of a race – consider the difference between a horse that that is still galloping, verses a horse that was prominent but can barely walk in the final few yards of the race..

I hope this helps and happy to provide more information, if required.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A rare bet on the flat in April for Thursday in the Class 2, 6F 3yo Handicap at Newmarket (1.50) on Thursday.

ADVERTISED – will be making his seasonal debut, but registered 2 wins from 5 starts as a 2yo and although both victories were achieved on synthetic surfaces, he recorded his best RPR of 91 when finishing 4th at 50/1 on his final start of the season in a valuable Class 2 Conditions event over 7 furlongs at York in October. He weakened in the last furlong losing 2 places in the process, which suggests that the step back in distance should suit and he is reasonably treated of his current OR of 90. His trainer Grant Tuer has his horses in good form, but the most intriguing aspect is that master tactician Jamie Spencer has been booked to ride which will be the first time he has joined forces with this stable during the past 5 years. This may prove to be a complete shot in the dark, but I couldn’t resist a small each way bet at the prices.

0.25 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) with Bet 365 @ 33/1 (only 20/1 with the other major firms that have priced up the race, so far).

Flat racing in Europe is beginning to ratchet up this month and there were 6 Group 3 Classic Trials held on Sunday, split between Longchamp and Leopardstown, from which 3 winners have been added to my tracker, as follows:

EVOLUTIONIST – 3yo filly trained by Karl Burke, who recorded a career best RPR of 109 on her visit to France to take the Prix de la Grotte over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. Although I am not convinced at this stage that she is capable of winning above Group 3 level, she did finish 3rd (btn 4 1/2 lengths) in the Group 1, Fillies Mile at Newmarket, which is a major form boost for the Aidan O’Brien trained winner that day, PRECISE who is currently clear favourite for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.

KOMOREBI – 3yo colt trained by Andre Fabre, was victorious in the Prix de Fontainebleau over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. He recorded a career best RPR of 112 and should be capable of winning again at Group 3 level, albeit his profile does not suggest he is ready to step up in class.

TRUE LOVE – 3yo filly trained by Aidan O’Brien, who recorded an RPR of 111 when winning the Priory Belle Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown. She ran 7 times as a 2yo and recorded 2 Group 2 and a Group 1 victory all at sprint trips, but appeared to see out this longer distance well. On breeding she should see out a mile, which makes her worth considering for the 1000 Guineas, for which she is currently joint third favourite behind 2 of her stablemates namely PRECISE and DIAMOND NECKLACE.

The CONSTITUTION HILL saga moves on to Newbury on Saturday, where he has as expected been entered for the Group 3 John Porter Stakes over 12 furlongs on Saturday, although Nicky Henderson has stated that he is unlikely to run if the ground is too quick.

I did have a quick look at the antepost markets for the race, when I heard that the 9yo gelding was vying for favouritism as I thought there may be some value to be found in respect of one or two of his 9 fellow entries.

However, the bookmakers appear to be running scared of the punters as they appear to have priced up the race without CONSTITUTION HILL and then inserted him at around 3/1 or 4/1, depending on their level of cowardice, resulting in a best odds overround of 126% across the major bookmakers, with a couple of firms offering a 146% book, which is appalling value on a 10 runner race, with no NRNB safety net.

I suspect that better odds will be available on most of the declared runners on the day of the race.

Betting bank now 111.27 pts (with a 0.5 pt bet for Thursday).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Days 2 and 3 of the Aintree festival produced similar results in relation to the 7 Grade 1 events, with none of the runners recording a class par RPR worthy of anything other than Grade 2 or Grade 3/Listed performances.

This is not unusual for Aintree, so perhaps it is time for the National Hunt pattern race committee to bite the bullet and realise that not all of the current Grade 1 races should be given the same designation. Either the better quality Grade 1 s could be redesignated as Premium Grade 1s, or the weaker races could be relegated to Grade 2, or even Grade 3/Listed status (albeit retaining the same level of prize money).

Alternatively, in an attempt to counter the problem of small fields in many of the weaker graded races, they could be turned into graded handicaps perhaps with a limited span of weights, which would hopefully boost produce more competitive events, which in turn would attract more punters – it seems to have worked with the National Hunt Chase and the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

Ironically, the only performance at Aintree that achieved the Grade 1 class par figure was that of I AM MAXIMUS (176) who won the Grand National and is undoubtedly the classiest winner of the race since the introduction of RPRs 40 years ago. – what a performance!!

Unfortunately, there are no Grade 1 chases over further than 3 miles 2 1/2 furlongs in either the U.K. or Ireland, but I wonder whether JP McManus and Willie Mullins will be tempted to send I AM MAXIMUS to Auteuil, France in mid May for the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris, which is run over 3 miles and 6 furlongs which is worth over £300k to the winner, as the horse would have strong claims against his French counterparts?

I have added the winner of the last race at the Aintree festival, the Grade 2 Bumper to my tracker:

FORTHFACTOR – recorded a career best RPR of 130 for his 2 1/2 lengths victory, which suggests that he should have a bright future over obstacles if taking to hurdles.

As I mentioned in my previous post on this thread, the Grand National ihas been slowly evolving over the past decade and now bares little resemblance to the race it once was. That said, it remains a fascinating puzzle for punters to crack, albeit the criteria for finding the winner has to be refined frequently.

With that in mind, I have been considering some tweaks for my methodology for producing next year’s shortlist, as follows:

The best performing horses in recent renewals have either won, or finished second (beaten less than 5 lengths) in at least one Grade 1 or 2 chase, or have won a Grade 3 Chase (including handicaps). Horses with an Official Rating below 146 can be safely discarded.

The runners at the head of the weights do not need to have much in hand based on their best RPR figures when compared with their current Official Rating, whereas the lower weights need to have a significant positive difference between the 2 ratings.

Stamina is imperative to see out the race, which suggests that runners either need to have won a chase over at least 3 1/2 miles, or have finished well over at least 3 miles 1 furlong and have a Dosage Index of less than 0.75.

Whilst the fences are far less demanding than they were in the past, meaning that average jumpers can bludgeon their way around, it is important that they are well balanced horses with quick feet to ensure that they can get out of trouble if either meeting a fence wrong, or landing awkwardly.

With a guaranteed field of 34 runners, it is important that a shortlist candidate has run with credit in a race with at least 20 runners.

Although, I AM MAXIMUS was 10 years old, ideally shortlisted runners should be younger, in line with the previous 9 winners and have run in no more than 16 chases, the only caveat being if the horse recorded a top 4 finish in the race last year and was beaten no more than 10 lengths.

Ideally, shortlist candidates must have shown good recent form, or have a valid excuse for a poor run.

Shortlist candidates should not have a history of leading or racing prominently early.

Finally, preference should be given to Irish trained runners.

There is no need to come up with specific qualification figures for these criteria at this stage, or define how many requirements need to be met to make the shortlist, but at least I have documented my plan of attack for next year, whilst this year’s race is still fresh in my mind.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Looks like you have had a fairly good day and not a bet builder in sight!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your kind words.

With all the changes made to the Grand National over the past decade, the race is evolving all the time, which has changed my opinion from a race that I would swerve at all cost, to a fascinating puzzle that has become a bit of an obsession.

I have been tweaking my shortlist criteria almost every year and have over the past few years found one or two that have provided a profit, so I can’t complain about making a small loss on the race this time.

I need to undertake a further review of my criteria this year, as I have already identified a blindingly obvious failure in my current methodology which meant that I removed both I AM MAXIMUS and IROKO but no other contenders at the final stage before sharing the shortlist on the thread.

I have also analysed the results of the first day of the Aintree Festival, which do not make good reading when considering that there were four Grade 1 races on the card.

Only one runner achieved a class par performance and has added to my tracker and that came in the Grade 2 filly and mares bumper:

NAN’S CHOICE – was a comfortable winner despite idling in front towards the end of the race and has been awarded a career best RPR of 123. She has won 2 of her 3 starts in Bumpers and has shown significant improvement on each occasion recording progressive RPRs of 94, 115 and 123. Hopefully she can build on this fine start to her career when she runs in novice hurdles next season.

The RPRs awarded for the Grade 1 4yo hurdle (130) and novice chase (152) suggested that the races were no better than solid Grade 3/Listed events, whilst BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (157) produced a figure worthy of a Grade 2 open hurdle.

JANGO BAIE (173) got closest to a class par figure in the Bowl Chase, but is beginning to developed a similar profile to his stablemate JONBON, in so much as he may end up mopping up weak Grade 1s, but always struggle to win when racing against true top level opponents.

The other interesting performance came from BARTON SNOW in the Foxhunter Chase over the Grand National fences, as he has shown progressive form in winning each of his 6 starts in Hunter Chases, culminating in victories at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. Although I have little knowledge of the PTP and Hunter Chases circuit, I just wonder if his connections are considering letting him run in top quality Grade 3 Handicap Chases, as he looks capable of further improvement and now has a career best RPR of 151 which suggests he is fairly treated off his current OR of 145. I seem to recall a few Hunter Chaser have made successful forays in the past, including OTTER WAY and SPARTAN MISSILE to name a couple from the 1970s.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I ended up enduring a real mixed bag of results today, with only 2 of my 5 selections managing to complete.

KALA CONTI – was beginning to make good headway when falling 3 from home and would probably have been involved in the finish.

JINGKO BLUE – could only finish sixth and probably needs to lead over distances around 2 1/2 miles.

OSCARS BROTHER – unseated his rider at the 15th fence in the Grand National.

JAGWAR – unseated his rider at the 19th fence when still travelling OK.

JORDANS – finished 3rd in the Grand National @ 28/1, but was only beaten 3 3/4 lengths having led over the last fence and may have won had his jockey Ben Jones held on to him longer rather than taking him into the lead after the penultimate fence.

It was a losing day, but not a complete disaster as JORDANS returned 3.3 pts, albeit a little frustrating.

Betting bank now stands at 111.77 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have found not one, but two selections at Aintree, tomorrow.

12.45 – KALLA CONTI – has shown her best form over fences when winning a Grade 2 Mares’ Novice Chase at Cork by 16 lengths from Arkle Chase winner KARGESE. She was awarded a career best RPR for that effort, which is about as good as any form in this Grade 1 race and also benefits from her mares’ allowance.

3.05 – JINKO BLUE – did this thread a favour when winning the 2m5f Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He has a bit to find based on RPRs with a number of his rivals and is stepping up in both class and distance, but is unexposed over hurdles after just 7 starts (3 wins) and the staying hurdle division is crying out for new blood.

0.25 pts win on each @ 4/1 and 7/1 (boosted), plus 0.25 each way double (4 places on 3.05) with Bet 365

Betting bank now 108.47 (with 5.0 pts worth of bets for tomorrow).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have a few thing that I want to jot down this afternoon before I forget.

Let’s start with the hedged bet from this morning which duly obliged as SOBER GLORY could only finish 4th of the 6 runners for a profit of 0.82 pts.

Perhaps I am cheating by including these bets in my betting bank totals, but in my opinion find opportunities to make a profit is all part of the game, as let’s face it we wouldn’t be punters if we didn’t want to make a few quid!!

It is also worth mentioning that bookmakers offer increased odds to bring in extra business on runners where they believe that they have a strong chance of getting the horse beaten.

I have no empirical evidence to back up my theory, but I tend to be prepared to back a runner where one bookmaker has boosted the odds, but I am very wary when two of my bookmakers get involved.

The fact that all 3 were offering boosted odds on SOBER GLORY screamed to me that he was an extremely vulnerable odds on favourite.

The result for the Top Novices’ Hurdle has done nothing to suggest that the form from last month’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is anything other than weak, as not only did SOBER GLORY flop, but the fourth home at Cheltenham BARON NOIR only finished third today.

Next up, just a quick confirmation that SPILLANE’S TOWER is a non runner in the Grand National tomorrow, so my 1.0 pt antepost bet stake has been returned.

It was French Guineas trials day at Deauville on Tuesday, which has generated a couple of new entries for my tracker:

AFANDY – 3yo gelding who as such is ineligible for the Guineas, but made all the running to win the Group 3 Prix Djebel for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 114. He appears to be progressing well and has now won 3 of his 4 career starts and should be worthing following in similar Group 3s in the future, especially when allowed an uncontested lead.

SHOWNA – 3yo filly who was a surprise winner of the Group 3 Prix Imprudence at 64/1, for which she recorded a career best RPR of 109. It is difficult to know what to make of this effort, as she has spent the winter running in moderate handicaps on the all weather at Deauville where her previous best RPR was just 87, yet she actually ran a quicker time than AFANDY on just her second attempt on turf. Although I have added her to my tracker, it is with the caveat that she runs to this level of form next time, which will not be in the French Guineas, as she has not been entered for the race.

I shall now start reviewing my shortlists for tomorrow’s races at Aintree, which of course includes the Grand National.

Betting bank now 109.47 pts (with 4.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

All three of my bookmakers have offered boosted odds on SOBER GLORY, although some have been more generous than others, but even the worst of their offerings can be hedged for a profit, enabling me to play as follows:

6.00 pts win (2.00 pts each @ evens, 11/10 and 5/4) for a return of 12.70 pts

5.88 pts lay on the exchanges which after commission provides a return of 12.70 pts

Guaranteed profit 0.82 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It was too early to tell whether LULAMBA would have won if he had not unseated his rider at the 10th fence, as he was in a fair position and looked to be travelling well.

I still believe that he will be worth following next year when racing over at least 2 1/2 miles.

However, my decision to hedge on him today paid dividends as it turned what would have been a 1.0 pt loss into a welcome profit of 0.8 pts.

The juvenile hurdle form from Cheltenham took a hit in the first race at Aintree, with the second, third, fourth and fifth in the Triumph Hurdle, plus the runner up in the Fred winter, all beaten by a filly who swerved the extravaganza in March – I remain convinced that this year’s 4yo hurdles remain a pretty motley bunch, who are likely to struggle when facing their elders next season.

It will be interesting to see the size of the RPR that is awarded to JANGO BAIE for his 16 length success in the Bowl Chase, as he ended up beating just a couple of ‘over the hill’ 11yos and his jumping was less than fluent.

That said, it was no worse than that of SPILLANE’S TOWER, who was eventually pulled up, so hopefully will now be declared a non runner for the Grand National on Saturday, as based on that evidence he would have little chance of negotiating the 30 fences and at least I will see the return of my stake under the NRNB rule!!

Unfortunately, I have no selections for tomorrow, but I may be able to hedge another bet if SOBER GLORY is boosted by at least one of my bookmakers – I will provide details tomorrow, if the opportunity arises.

Betting bank now 107.65 pts (with 5 points of antepost bets banked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As I had hoped, LULABMA has been the subject of an odds boost by both B365 and William Hill and is available at evens.

This has given me the opportunity to back him with both bookmakers, then lay him on the exchanges for a guaranteed profit whether he wins or not, as follows:

4.0 pts win @ Evens – returns 8.0 pts

3.2 pts lay on the exchanges which returns 8.0 pts after commission, resulting in a guaranteed profit of 0.8 pts.

Not a bad return when compared with my initial plan which was to place a 1.0 pt win bet at evens which would have returned 1.0 pts profit if he won and lost 1.0 pt if he failed!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have 3 horses in my tracker that are running at Aintree tomorrow, namely:

IMPAIRE ET PASSE in the Grade 1 Bowl Chase, but have decided not to back him, as whilst I believe that JANGO BAIE may prove to be a vulnerable favourite after the hard race that he endured when finishing runner up in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, it take a leap of faith to side with a horse that was pulled up in the Ryanair Chase. Perhaps, the reason for the poor run was that the race came too soon after he won on seasonal debut in February, but if that is the case then it is difficult to believe that he will produce the near career best effort he will probably need to win this event off an even shorter break. I know Willie Mullins is a magician, but surely this will be a trick too far.

TI’MAMZEL looked interesting in the Grade 2 Mares Bumper, especially as Bet 365 had boosted her odds from 15/2 to 17/2, but I sat down for a spot of dinner at 6.00pm, only to find that when I returned to my iPad that Tom Segal of all people had divided to put her up as a selection and that her price had contracted to 6/1 at best, which wiped out the value that was available, so again no bet!!

That just leaves LULAMBA who appears to be crying out for a step up in trip to 2 1/2 miles and based on adjusted RPRs is 7 lbs clear of his nearest rival. My analysis suggests he has a 60% chance of winning, which equates to 4/6 which is exactly the best price on offer as I write, so no value to be had. However, I have a suspicion that at least one of my bookmakers will make his the subject of a odds boost tomorrow morning, so I will hold fire for now and provide an update tomorrow if I can back him at around evens.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

At last, I have found a couple of performances from the holiday weekend that warrant a mention and inclusion in my tracker.

GETHIN – this lightly raced 4yo colt produced a pleasing performance on his seasonal debut to win the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton by 3 1/4 lengths from his closest market rival. He was awarded a career best RPR of 117 for this effort, which brings his race record to 3 wins and 2 second places finishes from 5 starts. He is clearly progressive and whilst this victory was on an artificial surface, he should also be worth following on turf and may find further improvement when racing over further.

CHARISMATIC KID – 5yo gelding who won the Bumper at Fairyhouse on Monday by 11 lengths to earn a career best RPR of 130. That brings his record in INH flat races to 2 wins and a third place finish from 3 attempts, with his only defeat coming at the hands of two stable companions in the Grade 2 Bumper at the DRF in early February, which was run at a very steady pace, prior to a sprint finish, which would not have suited him. It is likely that he will need a test of stamina over hurdles, so is worth considering next season when racing at around 2 1/2 miles over obstacles.

It is the start of the Grand National Festival tomorrow, so I will now start to review my shortlists for the races on Thursday to try and find a selection, or two.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I don’t know whether it is just me, but I find April very difficult from a punting perspective and can count the number of profitable months over the past couple of decades on the fingers of one hand.

In my opinion there are two major factors that contribute to this issue, the first being that the jumps season is drawing to a close, with many of the top performers having given their all attempting to win at the Dublin and Cheltenham festivals, so they are over the top when racing in April, plus the ground is often quicker as a result of the better weather, resulting in slow ground form being turned over as the top rated runners struggle to reproduce their best performances.

None of the winners of the 5 graded races at Cork and Fairyhouse on Sunday recorded a class par RPR and I suspect the results for the 3 graded races on Monday will draw another blank. In most cases, the winning RPRs are on a par with those that would be expected for a race at least 1 grade lower, which suggests that I may at least be able to take advantage of this insight when considering selections for the Fairyhouse Easter meeting next year.

The second reason is that many of the better quality runners on the flat are making their seasonal debuts and have a long season ahead of them, so they are unlikely to be trained to their full potential when there are bigger prizes on the horizon.

Just a quick look at the results of the 14 Listed and Group flat races held in Britain, France and Ireland since Friday, shows that only 2 favourites have obliged, whilst a number of the races produced almost unfathomable results, with winners at massive odds.

It is also worth noting that none of the winners for whom the Racing Post have so far awarded RPRs have achieved a class par figure.

At least my natural conservative approach to betting means that I have not been financially involved in these races over the weekend and have therefore not lost money, unlike in previous years.

That said, I did make a silly error, when backing KALLA CONTI for the Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree on Thursday, thinking that I was getting a good deal at 25/1, having forgotten that there was an alternative Grade 1 event over 2 miles on Saturday, which on paper appears the better option as LULAMBA has not been entered. This is the type of schoolboy error that I must stop making resulting in my antepost bets balance dropping 1 pt.

It also appears that SPILLANE’S TOWER will not be running in the Grand National on Saturday, as he has been declared for the Grade 1 Bowl Chase on Thursday, but at least I will get my 1pt stake back under the NRNB rule.

Betting bank now 106.85 pts (with 5.0 pts of antepost bets banked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

No luck with BETTER TIMES AHEAD in the Irish Grand National, as he was one of 18 runners who were pulled up in the race. To be fair, his trainer did mention that he wanted more rain, as he felt that the gelding needed slow ground, so I guess it was no surprise that he ran as if hating the conditions.

Aintree are watering to maintain good to soft ground for the first day of the Grand National Festival which starts on Thursday, so with little rain in the forecast, conditions could prove fairly lively for the big race on Saturday, which I suspect is unlikely to suit HAITI COULEURS for one.

It may also be worthwhile keeping checking whether potential selections have form on quickish ground before placing bets throughout the festival.

Betting bank now 106.85 pts with (6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

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