[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Poor jumpers rarely win the Champions Chase, as MAJBOROUGH has again shown – the further he went the less assured his jumping became, until he made a complete hash when put under pressure by a rival who was upsides him – definitely not one to be trusted!!

Perhaps I should have summed up the courage to lay him outright, but that said he was never available at odds against to fail, so I will take my 0.5 pts profit for an outlay of 5 pts and be grateful.

What can I say about my other bet on Wednesday, JINGKO BLUE (0.5 pts each way @ 20/1) who was backed off the boards and duly justified favouritism @ 9/2 to demolish the opposition in the Bet MGM Cup by 6 lengths.

That makes a total return for the day of 19.0 pts, which certainly makes the betting bank balance a good deal healthier and should guarantee a profit for the festival whatever happens over the next couple of days.

I will return later with my thoughts for Thursday.

Betting bank now 101.42 pts (with 13.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

MAJBOROUGH has been the subject of a few odds boosts in the Champion Chase and is on offer at 7/4, which based on my analysis is a good price.

However, despite these value odds, I just can’t bring myself to take the plunge and back this well documented dodgy jumper of fences, with some insurance.

Purists will probably not approve of the action that I have taken, but in my opinion all is fair in the punting game, so I have placed the following wagers:

2 pts win @ 7/4 with one of the bookmakers offering boosted odds
3 pts lay (not to win) on the exchange at the equivalent of 5/6 (after commission)

Both these wagers will produce a return of 5.5 pts for an outlay of 5.0 pts, leaving a small profit of 0.5 pts, whatever the result, which is an acceptable guaranteed return in my book.

Betting bank now 82.42 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

Good luck everyone..

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Six of the seven races at Cheltenham on Wednesday appear extremely competitive and to be honest if I was to pick 6 runners in each, I would probably struggle to find a single winner.

That said, I do have the 0.5 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) antepost investment on JINKO BLUE @ 20/1, which at least suggests that I have secured a bit of value as the selection is now best priced @ 11/1 (generally 10/1).

My other antepost selection was EDWARDSTONE, but he has not been declared for the Grand Annual, so my stake has been returned.

The one race that is of interest to me is the Champion Chase, in which the favourite MAJBOROUGH is the key runner.

Previously on this thread, I have mentioned that I would be keen to lay MAJBOROUGH at a shade of odds against, as I believe that he has a 50/50 chance of winning, however at the time of writing his odds with Bet 365 are 5/6 either to win, or not to win, so no value at present.

I shall therefore closely monitor his odds tomorrow morning, as his odds not ro win may drift allowing me to lay him to win, or his odds to win may be boosted by one of my bookmakers, in which case I may even be prepared to back him.

Betting bank now 87.42 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

Hopefully, more opportunities will arise over Thursday and Friday.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Looks like I won this particular Kit Kat challenge, with PORQUOI PAS PAPA finishing 4th, but your sweet treat is safe, as I can’t eat them, being both gluten and dairy intolerant.

I also has BIBE MUS on my shortlist, until he ran on Saturday, but the 5 lbs penalty that he picked up for his win meant that he dropped out of my reckoning.

Interestingly, I should also have backed the winner, as SARATOGA was the only runner from the juvenile hurdle at Naas, which has now provided 5 of the last 8 winners of this race, but for me his odds were too short.

Overall, the first day of the festival has gone well, resulting in a return of 16.60 pt return (including stakes), thanks to:

SOBER GLORY – 2nd
PORQUOI PAS PAPA 4th
LOSSIEMOUTH – 1st

The only disappointment being ANZADAM who finished 7th of 9 runners behind LOSSIEMOUTH in the Champion Hurdle.

Betting bank now 86.42 pts (with 15.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

I will return with my thoughts for tomorrow later.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Please place the first of my £5 free bets on ANZADAM without the favourites.

Many thanks,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have found a couple of selections for Tuesday, which are unlikely to be subject to any special offers from my bookmakers.

1.20 SOBER GLORY – has barely put a foot run during his short career, having won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles, having previously been successful in his sole start in a PTP and in all 3 runs in NH flat races. He has solid claims based on both his best RPR of 155 (4 lbs below top rating) and TS of 151 (best in race) and the old course should suit his prominent running style, yet he is available at 14/1, which in my opinion underestimates his chance of a podium finish.

0.5 pts win @ 14/1 and 1.5 pts for a top 6 finish @ 20/23 (just in case he gets run down by the finishers on the long run in) with Bet 365.

2.40 PORQUOI PAS PAPA – has just one victory from 5 hurdle starts, but has finished runner up on each other occasions. He recorded a career best RPR of 121 last time, when beaten 2 1/4 lengths by the reopposing MANLAGA, but is now 6 lbs better off with that rival, yet is available at 20/1, whereas the victor is a 7/1 shot. He is another prominent racer and could be open to further improvement on his handicap debut for a trainer, Paul Nicholls, who has won this race on 3 occasions in the past.

0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places. plus 1 pt for a top 10 finish @ 13/10 with Bet 365.

I also have a couple of antepost investments running in the Champion Hurdle (4.00), namely ANZADAM and LOSSIEMOUTH.

Bet bank now 69.82 pts (with 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Good idea.

Due to time constraints, I will only be posting thoughts and selection on my QUALITY RACING 2026 thread, so wondered whether you would be kind enough to place a link from here to the other thread, just in case any reader wants to see what I am getting up to?

Good luck everyone,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Yesterday ended up a busy day for my family, culminating in a rare visit to the cinema to watch the Peaky Blinders film, prior to it being available on Netflix – well worth watching, provided the back story is known by the viewer.

Today is no less busy as we have a classical music concert to attend this afternoon, followed by a meal out with some old friends, who religiously visit Cheltenham for the Festival.

Hence a quick update on yesterday’s developments.

My first daily bet for a fortnight, OOH BETTY ended up a non runner, due to the deteriorating ground, so just got my money back.

The announcement of the final entries for the Friday of the festival provided a pleasant surprise in respect of my antepost portfolio, as FACT TO FILE was not supplemented for the Gold Cup, so he will be carrying my money in the Ryanair Chase on Thursday, with DINOBLUE, who remains favourite for the Mares’ Chase on Friday.

DINOBLUE also remains on course to run for me in another each way (NRNB) double with OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle on Thursday.

Moving on to my other antepost selections for Friday, as expected ANZADAM who I backed each way (NRNB) for the County Hurdle, just in case he didn’t run in the Champion Hurdle, was scratched, so money back, which I have reinvested as follows:

2.00 KARBAU – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) with Bet 365, who have boosted his odds to 9/1 (generally 8/1 elsewhere).

My other two antepost selections remain live and there odds have pleasingly tightened up:

4.00 HAITI COULEURS – 1 pt each way (NRNB) @ 9.78/1 (current best odds 8/1, but generally 6/1)

5.20 KEL HISTOIRE – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) @ 14/1 (generally 6/1 favourite)

On balance, my antepost portfolio is currently looking fairly healthy, but that is the easy part of the equation, as my selection now needs to be to deliver a positive return.

I have yet to review the final declarations for Tuesday, which were released at 10.00 am this morning, but that is not a major problem at this stage as I want to see the special offers from my bookmakers before parting with further funds.

Betting bank now 73.82 pts (with 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Three posts in one day is probably a record, especially as this one contains details of a bet for tomorrow, which I appreciate has been rather a rarity over the past few weeks!!

Back in January, I was less than complimentary when detailing my thoughts on the victory of OOH BETTY at Ascot, but that was in the context of her having won probably the weakest Grade 2 hurdle race for mares for some time.

However, she now reappears in the Class 2, Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle at Sandown, which is far more appropriate in relation to her level of ability.

She could only finish eleventh in the race last year, when sent off at 8/1, but didn’t actually run too badly as she was only beaten 9 3/4 lengths, despite not being able to take up her customary prominent position.

Hopefully, she can get closer to the early pace this time, as she has plenty of ticks in the right boxes, having recorded 5 of her 6 hurdle victories when racing right handed, including over course and distance on her only other appearance at Sandown.

She will almost certainly need a career best effort to win, but looks capable of providing sort of return on the following investments with Bet 365

0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places) @ 22/1
1.0 pt for a top 10 finish @ 23/20

Betting bank now 71.82 pts (including 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The confirmed entries for the third day of the Cheltenham Festival have not impacted on my antepost bets, leaving the following investments in tact:

2.40 LOSSIEMOUTH – 2.0 pts win (NRNB) @ Evens – current best odds range from 8/11 to 5/4

3.20 BOB OLINGER – 1.0 pts each way @ 14/1 – current best odds 7/1, but more generally 6/1

4.40 RED DIRT ROAD – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) @ 33/1 – remains generally a 33/1 shot

There are also a couple of each way doubles on OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW (NRNB) and FACT TO FILE coupled with DINOBLUE, the fate of which will not be known until tomorrow.

However, there was one notable absentee in ANYWAY, who I had previously highlighted as a potential selection in the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Any reader who has logged on to William Hill today will no doubt be tempted by their Epic Boost offering evens for any favourite to win on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival.

The offer states that the current odds for this bet without the boost is 1/16, which implies that they are allowing all customers the opportunity to bet a maximum of £10 at evens with a 94.1% chance of success.

This in turn suggest that the theoretical chance of the bet failing is just 5.9%.

At first glance this appears to represent incredible value and no doubt many punters will take advantage of the offer.

However, using the best odds currently on offer from a selection of the major bookmakers on each of the favourites, which may of course change significantly between now and the start of each of the 7 races at Cheltenham on Tuesday gives a significantly different result when calculating the odds for the bet failing is around 25%, excluding overrounds.

This suggests that the true odds for any one of the favourites winning on Tuesday to be around the 75% mark, which is a 1/3 shot.

In conclusion, based on my calculations, the offer does represent value, as punters can secure even money on a 1/3 shot, but it is nowhere near as generous as suggested in the advertisement.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

At least I have no more casualties from my dwindling antepost portfolio after the latest entry stage for the second day of the Cheltenham Festival, as both of my selections remain in contention for a run.

2.40 JINGKO BLEU – 0.5pts each way (NRNB) @ 20/1 – currently best priced at 16/1, but is more generally a 14/1 shot

4.40 EDWARDSTONE – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) @ 33/1 – currently on offer at odds varying from 20/1 to 40/1.

It is also interesting to note that recent activity on the exchanges suggests that LOSSIEMOUTH is likely to finally get a chance of running in the Champion Hurdle, rather than going for a third successive victory in the Mares’ Hurdle.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Not a great day for my antepost portfolio in the races next Tuesday, as most of my selections have been scratched, as follows:

2.40 MODE AVION – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) – 1.0 pt returned
4.20 DONNACHA – 1.0 pts each way (NRNB) – 2.0 pts returned
4.20 VINCENZO – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB – 1.0 pts returned)

OK, I know that I wanted VINCENZO to be pulled out, but I am a bit miffed that the others were not confirmed as entries, as I had spent plenty of time finding them and I thought they both had fair claims of producing a return, albeit at least I get my money returned.

That leaves me with just an antepost interest in the Champion Hurdle:

ANZADAM – 1.0 pts each way @ 33/1 (currently best priced at 20/1)
LOSSIEMOUTH – 1.0 pts each way (NRNB @ 4/1) (currently best priced @ 7/2)

Hopefully most of my selections for the rest of the festival will get a chance to run.

Betting bank now 73.82 pts (with19.0 pts of antepost bets booked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just one week until the start of the Cheltenham Festival and there is already a buzz of anticipation in the town.

I have a number of thoughts that I wish to share, so will start with a quick review of the 3 graded races that were run over last weekend.

MONTEMARES – won the Premier Novices’ Hurdle at Kelso by 6 1/2 lengths, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 135. That figure is towards the lower end of list of RPRs recorded by winners during the past decade and it is not easy to get a grip on what this gelding actually achieved with all of his 3 market rivals having been pulled up. For now I have taken the stance that he should be opposed next time out, unless he appears in a weak event.

Supporters of NO DRAMA THIS END in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle will no doubt feel that MONTEMARES victory boosts the form of the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, but I am again lukewarm warm on the Paul Nicholls trained runner who is vying for favouritism in that race.

JACOBS LADDER – was odds on to win what appeared to be a weak renewal of the Grade 3, Flyingbolt Novice Chase at Navan and duly obliged his supporters finishing 1 1/4 lengths ahead of his nearest rival. He was given an RPR of 144 for this victory, but had won a competitive handicap at the DRF last time out for which he was awarded his career best RPR of 152, so he clearly didn’t have much to beat on Saturday. He has plenty of scope for further improvement, but he is not one that I would be entrusting with my money at this stage until he proves that he can run to his OR of 151.

JAMES DU BERLAIS – defied a significant drift in the market to win the Grade 2, Websters Cup Chase at Navan even though he ended up the outsider of the 4 runner field at an SP of 11/1. His winning RPR of 153, was fully 6 lbs below his career best figure and with just 3 wins from 20 starts over fences, I shall not be clamouring to support him next time.

I also wanted to mention a couple of horses that have recently appeared on this thread.

JORDANS – was previously highlighted as a well handicapped horse after which he was pulled up in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park, on heavy ground, prior to running in a Listed handicap chase over 2m 5 1/2f at Fairyhouse yesterday. He could only finish eleventh of the 16 starters, but was only beaten 15 lengths, having been outpaced at the finish. Perhaps it is now possible to get a feel for his prime conditions, which I believe are something close to a handicap chase over at least 3 miles on ground ranging from good through to yeilding to soft. I did not back him yesterday, but will keep him in my tracker until he has a chance to prove himself under ideal conditions, as I suspect he may be dropped a couple more lbs for his latest defeat, which would make him dangerously well treated.

VINCENZO – blotted his copybook with a below par effort in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday, finishing over 23 lengths behind the winner in fifth place. Based on RPRs he performed 18 lbs below his previous best and a holder of a NRNB each way ticket for him in the Plate Handicap Chase at Cheltenham next Tuesday, I am hoping that he is scratched from the race, as I doubt he can bounce back to form in such a short period of time – at least then I will get my money back.

MARINE NATIONAL – has today been scratched for the Champion Chase, which again highlights the pitfalls of antepost betting without NRNB. With a week to go before the Cheltenham Festival, I was quietly confident of at least securing the place return on my 1 pt ew double on OLD STAR PARK for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and MARINE NATIONALE in the Champion Chase, but now I have just lost my 2 pt stake, without either horse running.

However, all may not be lost, as MAJBOROUGH is now generally odds on for the Champion Chase, which may provide me with the opportunity to lay him to win at a shade of odds against on the day to recoup my losses. ,

I still feel that he is a moderate jumper of fences and only ALTIOR has scored during the past decade from 8 runners who started odds on for the race, with many of the losers making jumping mistakes – hopefully MAJBOROUGH will keep up this trend!!

All the best,

Rob

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Not sure how many readers follow trends when analysing races, but i generally tend to use a few of my own to whittle down large fields in an attempt to generate a more manageable shortlist, rather than following trends that identify specific selections.

However, I was notified this week of one specific trend covering races over fences at the Cheltenham Festival which really has taken my interest.

I do not feel that I can share full details of the trend on this thread, as that would be unfair to the person to undertook the analysis and shared the result to subscribers, however it is probably reasonable for me to say that it relates to horses running over fences, who raced last time out over hurdles.

Under certain circumstances these runners are worth backing both to win and each way, especially when additional places are on offer.

This trend doesn’t generate many opportunities, but I have identified 3 potential entries that may be worth following, if the turn up at the festival, namely.

AMERICAN MIKE – has entries in the Ultima, Plate and Kim Muir handicap chases
JAZZY MATTY – entered in the Grand Annual, having won the race last year after racing over hurdles on his previous start
ANYWAY – already mentioned on this thread in relation to the Jack Richards Novice Handicap Chase

I am not inclined to back any of the qualifiers yet, but will consider them ion the day of the race when I can hopefully secure some additional places for my each way investments.

All the best,

Rob.

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