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RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
When I get around to analysing the Ultima Handicap Chase, I shall start by applying some of the following trends to reduce the number of horses that I have to consider in more detail.
Previous Cheltenham Festival run – 10/10
Days since last run no more than 45 – 9/10
Official Rating no lower than 142 – 8/10
No more than 9 chase starts – 8/10
Aged 6-8 years – 8/10
Last ran over at least 3 miles – 8/10
In addition, it is worth noting that last time out winners have been successful in 4 of the past 10 renewals, from 42 qualifiers for a level stake profit of 15.00 pts.
Will be interesting to see how our shortlists compare, as some of the above trends sort of contradict a few of those which you have quoted – both views are correct, but consider the underlying stats from a different perspective.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
We have another partial match in the JLT Novices’ Chase, as my current list of interesting horses is a follows:
DEFI DU SEUIL (10/3)
KIDISART (16/1)
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (25/1)
VINNDICATION (12/1)
My only concern for KIDISART is that he is prone to jumping errors, but he certainly has a big engine and could be top class if he learns to jump consistently well.
As for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle, I have not undertaken any analysis on the individual entries, but all 3 previous winners were trained by Willie Mullins and started favourite.
He doesn’t appear to have a hotpot this year, but he has a host of entries and I would not be surprised if he trained the winner again this time, perhaps at tasty odds, the trouble is which mare?
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
This is the first time that I have looked at the Champion Bumper, so I applied the following four trends:
Age 5/6
Won lto
Won Bumper worth at least £/€ 4K
Won Bumper with 13 or more runnersThese trends usually produce a shortlist of 6 or more entries, so I was a bit surprised when only 2 of this year’s entries have made it through these tests:
ENVOI ALLEN (5/1)
SANTA ROSSA (25/1)
ENVOI ALLEN has strong claims and to be honest 5/1 is not a bad price, but the mare SANTA ROSSA is really interesting, based on the fact that she will receive 7lbs from the males and we should not forget that the fairer sex have won the last 2 renewals.
It is also worth noting that she has finished both of her races strongly, which suggests that she will appreciate the stiff uphill finish – whether she wins, or not 25/1 NRNB seems very fair.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Our thoughts diverge on this race, as my initial list consists of:
DELTA WORK (7/2)
MORTAL (33/1)
ON THE BLIND SIDE (20/1)
TOPOFTHEGAME (5/1)
I have no preference at this stage and to be honest this is one of the races in which I am least likely to have a bet, albeit it is always informative for the future.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
We clearly have very different approaches when considering our investments at the Cheltenham Festival, but as the saying goes, “there are many ways to skin a cat”.
My current list of horses of interest consists of 5 entries, albeit this will undoubtedly change over the next month, as I gradually formulate my final shortlist:
CITY ISLAND (10/1)
COMMANDER OF FLEET (14/1)
DOWNTOWN GETAWAY (25/1)
DUNVEGAN (33/1)
JARVEYS PLATE (25/1)
Most of these have shown their best form on G/S, or faster ground, so slower conditions may find them out.
If I had to nail my colours to the mast at this stage, I would probably go with COMMANDER OF FLEET, who already has a Grade 1 win under his belt and seemed to handle Yielding to Soft when comfortably winning a valuable Bumper at the Punchestown Festival last year.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I like your betting strategy and staking plan, as stake returned for just 2 places and profit if selections are more successful is a good position to be in.
If you rate SHARJAH as an each way selection in the Champion Hurdle, then you might wish to consider LEONCAVALLO in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, if racing is allowed to resume after the Equine Flu scare.
LEONCAVALLO finished 3rd in the Galway Hurdle and that effort has been franked as follows:
Sharjah (Won) – OR now 17 lbs higher after 2 Grade 1 victories.
Bedrock (4th) – OR now 13 lbs higher after victories at G3 and G2 level.
Le Richebourg (5th) – has subsequently won 2 Grade 1 Novice Chases and OR over fences now 19 lbs higher than his hurdle mark.
LEONCAVALLO’s OR is now 3 lbs higher, but booking of 5lb Claimer for Saturday negates that rise, which suggests that he should be of interest from a purely handicapping perspective at around 14/1 for the Betfair Hurdle.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
This should be a fascinating thread and it will be interesting to view your shortlists for each race that you analyse, as the approach is similar to that which I deploy, albeit I don’t tend to do much until the 5 day entries have been published.
I hope you have plenty of time on your hands, as you may recall that during my time as an OLBG blogger, I produced trends based articles for all of the Grade 1 events, which seemed to take forever, as the figures often changed after each horse ran in it’s prep race.
With regards to your use of trends, I hope you don’t mind me suggesting that it may be beneficial to use data from just the last 10 years, as I have found that using less data tends to improve the likelihood that the trends will identify the winner. The reason being that horse racing is by it’s very nature a dynamic sport, so changes to the sourcing of National Hunt horses, the racing calendar including the festival races and training methods can all impact on the profile of likely winners.
I also found that only shortlisting horses that met all the trends significantly reduced the chance of including the eventual winner, as it was more normal for the victor to have met the majority of the trends, albeit no all of them.
Using your stats for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the mathematical chance of the winner meeting all the trends is just 48.5%, which means that there is more chance of not including the winner in your shortlist than having it in there.
To improve the chance of having the eventual winner in my shortlist, I used to score all of the last 10 winners against the trends and then make a judgement on what should be considered as the minimum score for candidates this year, which is rather time consuming.
However, I have also had some success discarding from the shortlist all horses that failed any of the trends, but adding back any horse that has been tipped as ante post selections by any of the professional pundits who write for the Racing Post, Racing and Football Outlook, Weekender, or Timeform, on the basis that these guys have plenty of experience of analysing races and therefore should know what they are doing – it is part of their job!!
As for target races, I would start with the Championship races where the ante post betting suggests that it is not a one horse event, so the Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase and Stayers’ Hurdle would be prime candidates.
The open handicaps are also worth analysing, but entry volumes are usually so large that it is often better to wait until the 5 day entry stage – perhaps I am just getting lazy in my old age!!
Good luck and I will try to join in when time permits.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Congratulations, you have certainly hit a rich vein of form with your outsiders in the Extra Place market with Bet365.
Long may this continue, albeit I feel that I must warn you that the Bookmaker in question is notoriously quick at restricting/closing down winning punters, especially when regular profits are being made through one of their special markets.
Not only have I fallen foul of their risk adverse strategy to get rid of successful punters, but a number of my friends and family have also been heavily restricted and/or closed down despite only making modest profits.
Anyway, I hope you can keep below the radar.
All the best.
Rob.
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