[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A 6 runner class 6 handicap at Brighton (3.26) over 10 furlongs is hardly a quality race, so what am I doing offering a selection in the race.

The truth of the matter is that in my opinion there are so many major negatives against the odds on favourite ROCKERAFELLA SHANK, that he has to be opposed, that he just has to be opposed.

My list of negatives is as follows:

Although he has won his last 4 races, they were all class 6 classified events, in which he beat absolute dross.
His 4 victories have all been achieved since 10 June, so there has to be strong chance that his connections are going to the well once too often.
Both his sire and dam were sprinters, which suggests that he is not bred to stay 10 furlongs, so although he has won over the trip there must be a doubt when facing half decent opposition.

Instead of laying ROCKERFELLA SHANK, I prefer to back the second favourite LUCKY SEVENS, who stays this trip well and recorded his best RPR of 61 at Bath, which is always similar hillside track, which suggests that he should handle this idiosyncratic course.

0.25 pts win @ 4/1, plus 0.75 pts for a top 3 finish @ 1/3, both with Bet 365.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

BOILERMAKER could only finish third, despite having been heavily backed down to 5/4, which just shows how tricky these low grade middle distance handicaps for 3yos can be, where so many of the runners are unexposed and open to improvement.

Still the place portion of the bet provided a return of 1.18 pts, which just covered the 1.0 pt outlay.

I don’t have anything for tomorrow at Royal Ascot, as I either have a plethora of horses of interest in a couple of races, or absolutely nothing to tempt me in the ‘lucky last’ event.

Betting bank now 117.60 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As expected, SWEET WILLIAM was no match for SCANDINAVIA and TRAWLERMAN, but once again ran his race to finish third in the Ascot Gold Cup, thus maintaining his record of never finishing worse than fourth in any of his 22 career starts, providing a return of 1.63 pts.

Only 2 qualifying races tomorrow at Royal Ascot and neither of them fill me with any enthusiasm from a betting perspective.

Initially, I was keen to support HOPEWELL ROCK in the Class 2, Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap over 12 furlongs, especially as the two horses that finished ahead of him last time, namely DAIQUIRI BAY and GAMRAI finished first and second in the Copper Horse Stakes on Tuesday. However, he is only 5/1, which are rather skinny odds and stall 8 is rather low in a 19 runner field over 12 furlongs at Ascot and whilst the last 3 winners of the race emerged from single figure stall, they all went on to subsequently win at Group level and I am not convinced that HOPEWELL ROCK is quite that good.

Instead, I am going to trawl the depths down to the Class 5 handicap for 3yos at Goodwood (6.20) over 12 furlongs.

BOILERMAKER – was added to my tracker as a well handicapped horse when finishing runner up on his latest start at Thirsk, where he was beaten by a William Haggas trained filly who has since improved her career best RPR by 4 lbs. He faces 7 rivals in this event and whilst a number of these are likely improvers, the Racing Post analysts suggested that if he improves by just 1 lb on his latest effort, his chance of winning a similar Class 5 handicap should be around 33%. Current best odds of 5/2 therefore suggest that he offers a little bit of value, albeit I am not going to be able to go on holiday off the proceeds if he does win.

0.25 pts win @ 5/2 with William Hill, plus 0.75 pts for a top 3 finish @ 4/7 with Bet 365.

Betting bank now 116.42 pts (with 1.0 pt bet for tomorrow).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

LIMESTONE showed plenty of guts again to overhaul the long term leader within the final furlong, prior to holding off the even later challenge of the runner up, to land today’s bet for a profit of 2.90 pts.

Although there are 4 races over at least 10 furlongs at Royal Ascot tomorrow, I can only find one value bet in the Gold Cup and I am not overly confident, so will keep my stake small.

SWEET WILLIAM – 7yo gelding who has never finished worse than fourth in his 21 career starts, winning on 7 occasions. He has finished third and fourth in the last 2 renewals of this Group 1 event, but has never won in 4 attempts at the highest level and whilst he appears to be running as well as ever this season, he is highly unlikely to win tomorrow. That said, his consistency suggests that he is highly likely to run his race yet again and is worth supporting for a top finish.

1.0 pt for a top 6 finish @ 8/13 with Bet 365

Betting bank now 115.79 pts (including 1.0 bet for tomorrow).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

No joy with PUTURHANDSTOGETHER who finished a very disappointing 16th of the 20 runners in the Ascot Handicap Stakes.

There are only 2 races of interest at Royal Ascot for me tomorrow and the Group 1, Prince Of Wales’s Stakes appears to be a tough one to call, as both OMBUDSMAN and DARYZ have recorded class par figures in similar events during the past year, which suggests that there should be little to separate them if they both run to the best of their ability.

If ido play in the race,I shall probably wait until tomorrow morning to see whether any of my bookmakers are offering boosted odds for the race at which time I shall back them at inflated odds and immediately lay them on the Exchange, thus ensuring a small profit, whatever happens.

However, the Group 2 Queen’s Vase over 1 mile 6 furlongs does offer a nice opportunity for a bet.

LIMESTONE – although he failed to achieve a class par figure when winning a Listed event over 1 mile 5 furlongs at Navan on his latest start, I was impressed with the way that he battled to the line, suggesting that he would appreciate a further step up in trip. Immediately after the race his trainer Joseph O’Brien suggested that this event would be he next target and his last time out career best RPR of 108 sets the standard, suggesting that his rivals are going to need to improve significantly to even match what he has achieved so far, let alone overtake him if he produces further improvement, as expected.

I shall be surprised if he fails to achieve a top 3 finish, so have backed him as follows:

0.5 pts win @ 7/2 with Boylesport, plus 1.5 pts for a top 3 finish @ 10/13 with Bet 365

Betting bank now 113.89 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your concern, I am not quite back to peak fitness yet, but at least I feel capable of running my eye over tomorrow’s Royal Ascot race card.

However, before detailing my thoughts, I will do my best to respond to your question regarding the impact of wet conditions on dirt.

My gut feel is that dirt racing on sloppy, or muddy dirt surfaces is more of a rarity than heavy ground on turf, albeit perhaps it is just a case that I don’t encounter the problem very often due to only being interested in graded races on dirt that are covered by the Racing Post.

On the few occasions that I had to analyse the contestants that are due to race on wet dirt, my initial response is to check whether any of the runners have reproduced something close to their best performances under similar conditions, or if failing to find any qualifiers I check out the sire and dam of each runner to see how they, or their progeny have performed on wet dirt.

I suspect the main difference between how you and I deal with betting on heavy turf, may be down to the type of races that we target, as I tend to focus on better quality events which are contested by classier horses that in the main tend to be less ground dependent, whereas you are the expert when it comes to trawling for winners at the lowest levels of the sea bed.

Anyway, back to Royal Ascot tomorrow, where there should be no concerns regarding heavy ground, for which I have focussed on the final 3 races of the day, which are all over at least 10 furlongs.

I found nothing of interest in the Listed, Wolferton Stakes at 5.35, which was a disappointment as it has been fairly profitable in previous years, but have 4 horses of interest in the Class 2, Copper Horse Handicap at 6.10, which I cannot split so no bet in that race, either.

However, I do have a selection in the Class 2, Ascot Stakes Handicap over 2 miles 3.5 furlongs at 5.00.

PUTURHANDSTOGETHER – failed to justify favouritism in the Chester Cup last time, where he could only finish seventh, but he had a troubled run in that race, having stumbled at the start, meaning that he was at the back of the field throughout the race, before finishing well after finding trouble in running when making his challenge. However, he still recorded a career best RPR of 98 for that effort, which suggests that he is nicely treated off his current OR of 92, especially as his hurdling OR of 140 indicates that there could be more to come on the level. I am not too concerned that his trainer Joseph O’Brien will be saddling 7 runners in this race, as PUTURHANDSTOGETHER is to be ridden by the number 1 stable jockey, whilst the application of first time Cheekpieces should assist, rather than hinder his chances.

0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places) @ 6/1 with Boylesport

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have been a little under the weather since Saturday, so will keep this update short.

Both of my Derby investments were blow outs, so not a great Epsom for me financially and the state of the ground makes me a little sceptical in relation to whether the form will work out in future races.

That said, I have a couple of winners that have been added to the tracker.

SALLAAL – produced a huge performance to win the Class 2 Handicap over 10 furlongs at Epsom on Friday by 6 1/2 lengths. He was awarded a career best RPR of 121 for that effort which suggests that he should be capable of stepping up to pattern races below Group 1.

THUNDERING ON – recorded a career best RPR of 121 for her easy 3 3/4 lengths victory in the Oaks, which suggests that she is one of the best recent winners of the filly’s classic. She should be worth considering in her next few races, providing her performance was not specifically ground dependent.

My final tracker addition is GOLDEN TEMPO who won the Grade 1, Belmont Stakes over 10 furlongs at Saratoga on dirt, having already been successful in the Kentucky Derby. His winning RPR of 122 suggests that he has sound claims in future races throughout the season, including against his elders when receiving the weight for age allowance.

I need to take things easy for the next few days but hope that I will be firing on all cylinders for the start of Royal Ascot next week.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

GREAT DAVID only managed an 11th place finish, which I guess was about what should be expected from a 40/1 shot, but at least CAMEO provided a return of 1.59 pts for my investment by scrambling home in fifth place in the Oaks, so not a complete car crash on day 1 of the Epsom Festival.

The official going at the track may be good to soft, but the way these top class fillies finished in the Oaks was more akin to the type of finish seen in a staying chase run on a rainy day during the winter months.

Betting bank now 114.89 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The pet theory which I documented yesterday has been included in a couple of articles on the Racing Post website today, namely ‘The Edge’ and Keith Melrose’s weekly Form Hacker, which is one way is pleasing, but does mean that it is now available for many more punters to consider when analysing the action at Epsom over the next couple of days, so a bit of a double edged sword.

I have now placed a couple of bets for the Derby on Saturday, as follows:

ACTION – one of four Aidan O’Brien entries in the race and was included in my initial shortlist for the race. He recorded his career best RPR of 115 when finishing runner up (btn 1/2 length) to his stablemate HAWK MOUNTAIN in the Group 1, Futurity Stakes over 1 mile at Doncaster on Heavy ground, so should have no issues with the underfoot conditions at Epsom and was also runner up to ITEM on his latest start in the Group 2, Dante Stakes at York. The fact that he is Aidan O’Brien’s third string in this race based on the current betting and is to be ridden by Wayne Lordan suggests that he could well be used as the pacemaker for his more illustrious stablemates, but that may not be an issue, as relative outsiders and front runners from this stable have won the Derby in recent years. On paper, he has recorded better RPRs than his stablemate PIERRE BONNARD, yet he is available at 4 times the odds in the current market.

0.25 pts win @ 20/1 with Boylesport, plus 0.75 pts for a top 7 finish at 4/7 with Bet 365.

I mentioned when sharing my initial shortlist for this race that I was hoping that BAY OF BRILLIANCE would be offered in a straight match bet against MALTESE CROSS, who just got the better of their dual in the Listed, Lingfield Derby Trial, as I thought that the former would reverse the placings at Epsom as he was entitled to improve for his first run of the season. My belief has been further strengthened by the fact that the race is likely to be run on slowish ground, which should suit BAY OF BRILLIANCE as his 2 victories have come on G/S and Soft ground, whilst MALTESE CROSS has yet to race on slowish turf.

1.0 pt BAY OF BRILLIANCE to beat MALTESE CROSS @ 11/10 with Bet 365.

Betting bank now 113.30 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

With the final declarations announced for the first day of the Epsom Derby Festival on Friday, it is decision time.

Before I explain my selections, I want to document a pet theory I have for finding potential bets at Epsom, which I have been discussing with Keith Melrose via email this morning.

Epsom is an idiosyncratic hillside track, which has steep undulations and a notorious camber which can cause runners to veer to their left when making their challenge in the home straight, all of which means that many horses are unable to adapt to it’s unique challenges.

It therefore makes sense to concentrate on runners that have either previously won, or recorded strong form at Epsom, or at tracks with similar quirks, such as:

Bath, Brighton and Goodwood – also undulating hillside tracks where the turf sits on a chalk, or limestone base.

Lingfield (turf) – sits close to the North Downs in Surrey and provides a similar test for runners that race over middle distances.

Chester – not that similar to Epsom as it is a tight circular track, but requires horses to be balance, which is a prerequisite for handling Epsom’s undulations and camber, plus it is regularly used by Aidan O’Brien to test his top Oaks and Derby entries, so if good enough for him, then who an I to argue with his logic.

Salisbury – perhaps the outlier, but its loop configuration is strange, requiring runners over middle distances to be capable of remaining balanced around the tight loop.

A quick check on the last 10 renewals of the 3 middle distance handicaps held during the Derby Festival shows that the majority of winners had either won, or recorded a strong RPR at at least one of the above tracks.

The recent heavy rain at Epsom has made me reconsider my initial betting plans for Friday, but I still have a couple of selections, as follows:

3.15 – GREAT DAVID – this 4yo colt is not an obvious choice based on his recent form figures, but further investigations suggest that he may have been underestimated by the bookmakers. He has two wins on turf from 10 career starts, with the first having been achieved at Brighton on soft ground at the end of his 2yo campaign. He started his 3 yo season with another victory over 10 furlongs at Nottingham, but was then highly tried in Listed and Group 3 events, in which he ran creditably in the main, recording a career best RPR of 105. He ran as if needing the run when finishing 9th of the 11 runners in a similar handicap at Chester on his seasonal debut, where he finished 12 lengths behind the winner RESPOND, who is vying for favouritism in this event, but is likely to be fitter now and is fairly treated off his current OR of 100.

0.25 pts win @ 40/1, plus 0.25 pts for a top 9 finish @ 7/4 with Bet 365

4.00 – CAMEO – although this 3yo filly was on my initial shortlist for the Oaks, she was not by first choice for a bet, however the recent rain makes her more appealing as she recorded her only victory and highest RPR of 81 as a 2yo at the Curragh on Soft/Heavy ground. Her finishing time when winning the Listed, Oaks Trial at Lingfield on her latest start was 0.42 seconds faster than MALTESE CROSS achieved in the subsequent Derby Trial, which suggests that the form of her 4 3/4 length success should stand up to close scrutiny. She will need to improve to win this Group 1 contest, but has less questions to answer than a number of her 8 rivals.

0.5 pts win @ 9.23/1 (17/2 + 9% Daily Boost) with William Hill, plus 1.0 pt for a top 5 finish @ 10/17 with Bet 365

Betting Bank now 115.30 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Last week’s action in GB and Ireland was rather underwhelming, but I have 3 French trained winners from Chantilly on Sunday to add to my tracker, as follows:

BEHRAYNA – 3yo filly who remains unbeaten after 3 career starts and appreciated the step up in distance to 12 furlongs to win the Grpup 3, Prix De Royaumont by a comfortable 2 lengths. Her winning RPR of 110 was a career best effort and given her relative inexperience she is wort considering in the future below Group 1.

GOLIATH – 6yo gelding who returned to the sort of form he showed back in 2024, with a comfortable 2 lengths victory in the Group 2, Grand Prix du Chantilly over 12 furlongs. His winning RPR of 124 was 3 lbs shy of his career best figure, which suggests that whilst he is a previous winner of the Group 1, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, he may need his sights set a little lower this year, but could find further top level success when found a weaker event.

CONSTITUTION RIVER – 3yo colt who as mentioned in my previous post was victorious in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 122. If he can match, or improve on this level of performance during this season, he is highly likely to be competitive in any race in which he runs, especially over the Summer when in receipt of the age allowances when tackling older opponents, albeit this allowance does diminish as the year progresses.

I have retained BELIEVEITANDUCAN on my tracker after his victory at Chester on Saturday, as whilst his OR has been raised to 84, he was awarded a career best RPR of 91, which suggests that he may still have a few lbs in hand, although my future support will be dependent on the grade of the race and quality of his opponents.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The significant bias in favour of low drawn horses in the Prix du Jockey Club was completely turned on it’s head yesterday, by the Coolmore team who defined and executed a masterful plan to improve the chance of their star colt CONSITUTION RIVER winning the race from a desperate draw in stall 15.

Not only did it succeed, but it also enabled HAWK MOUNTAIN to finish second from stall 11 and their third string MONTREAL, who did most of the donkey work as the pacemaker to finish third from stall 8, whilst the next two horses to finish also started from double figure stalls.

To be honest these tactics had no real impact on my selection HANKELOW, who was travelling in fifth place with 2 furlongs to run, but weakened thereafter to trail in 13th of the 16 runners. It was always debatable whether he would stay further than 1 mile, but was worth chancing at 18/1 – some you win and some you lose!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

BELIEVEITANDUCAN provided the perfect example of the early bird catching the worm, as the 9/4 offered by Bet 365 in their opening show quickly disappeared, after which he continued to be heavily supported and finally started at 5/6 favourite.

The fact that he won by 3 1/4 lengths, was no real surprise as he he was phenomenally well handicapped, but I would not have backed him below 7/4.

In hindsight, perhaps I should have increased my stake and backed him just to win, but I have come unstuck before with apparent good things failing to perform on the day.

Anyway, the 2.12 pts return is welcome and provides a 1.12 pt profit, which I will reinvest in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly tomorrow.

For the uninitiated, the Group 1, Prix du Jockey Club is the French equivalent of our Derby, but is run over a shorter distance of 1 mile 2 1/2 furlongs and is notorious for having a very strong bias in favour of low drawn runners, so much so that all of the past 10 winners emerged from stall 8, or lower.

Obviously, such draw biases can be overcome occasionally by the very best colts, but they tend to need plenty of luck in running and the coolest of rides from their jockey.

This year’s race sees the current top 3 in the betting market allotted difficult starting positions, with CONSTITUTION RIVER in stall 15, DARYZAN in 10 and HAWK MOUNTAIN in 11, so hopefully there is some value to be found amongst the other runners at bigger odds.

From my shortlist of 4 runners of interest, I have chosen HANKELOW, who appears to offer the most value.

He finished third on his seasonal debut in the Group 1, French 200 Guineas for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 117, despite weakening in the final strides, which he was entitled to do on his first run of the season. The suitability of the step up to 10.5 furlongs is a massive unknown, as his sire NIGHT OF THUNDER was a Group 1 miler, but has produced top class middle distance performers, including OMBUDSMAN, whilst his dam SAGACIOUSLY was a fairly moderate middle distance winner, so there is stamina in his pedigree. However, the clinching arguments for making him my selection are that he should have a perfect draw in stall 1 to make the running as he did in the French 2000 Guineas and the fact that Bet 365 have gone out on a limb offering him at 18/1, whereas the other major firms only go 14/1.

0.25 pts win @ 18/1, plus 0.75 pts for a top 8 finish @ 8/11, both with Bet 365.

I don’t expect the 18/1 to last long, whilst the top 8 finish bet is an attempt to insure against HANKELOW weakening in the closing stages, should his stamina run out.

Betting bank now 117.80

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I don’t have the courage to take on the exchange punters nowadays, in the way you are suggesting, as there are just too many ‘value thieves’ on the site that have been kicked out by the bookmaking community for winning money.

Instead, I shall just remain patient and wait for the opportunity to make a few quid when the bookmakers underestimate a horse that I believe offers a bit of value, as with my selection for tomorrow.

I don’t usually stoop as low as Class 4 handicaps, but I added the Alan King trained dual purpose gelding BELIEVEITANDUCAN to my tracker after he won a Class 4 handicap over 2 miles, earlier this month. He appeared to win with more in hand than the 1 1/4 lengths margin suggests and yet the BHA handicapper only raised his OR by 4 lbs to 77, whilst he was awarded a career best RPR of 88, which suggests that he remains dangerously well handicapped. To support this idea further a comparison of his Flat and Hurdles ORs of 77 and 123, suggests that he has something in the region of 6 lbs in hand on the flat. The real clincher was the write up he was given in the Racing Post ‘Ahead of the Handicapper’ article that suggested that runners with an RPR 11 lbs ahead of their OR have historically won 75% of their next starts.

He runs tomorrow in the 2.53 at Chester, which is another Class 4 event over 2 miles and whilst his odds are not spectacular they appear to offer considerable value, if he runs to form and the RP assessment of a 75% winning chance is correct, albeit I will not be throwing caution to the wind and will be seeking a modest return, as follows:

0.25 pts win @ 9/4, plus 0.75 pts for a top 3 finish @ 8/11 both with Bet 365 (Betfair and Skybet have opened up at 7/4)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Unfortunately, I have nothing for today after all.

My runner of interest at Yarmouth is far too short in the betting, as are both SWEET WILLIAM and OMBUDSMAN at Sandown, neither of which are guaranteed to shoulder their respective penalties.

OMBUDSMAN is the second highest rated flat racehorse in my tracker with a career best RPR of 130, but the concatenation of the maximum 7 lbs penalty, plus his defeat in the race last year and the update from his trainers John and Thady Gosden, that this race is very much a stepping stone to get the horse to peak fitness for his attempt to win back to back Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot means that he is probably priced up correctly at around 4/6, which also negates the possibility of laying him.

I did have two other tracker entries in the Brigadier Gerrard Stakes, but ALMERIC in my opinion needs slow ground to produce his best form, which he will not get at sun baked Sandown, whilst I have missed the chance to support GETHIN, due to my lack of urgency to get my bets placed.

The betting markets are constantly evolving and I have found over the past couple of years that many of the horses that I wish to back are only available at value odds soon after the markets are first formed, usually on the afternoon after the final declarations have been published, as they soon tend to attract interest from other value seeking punters, which shortens the odds, even before the bookmakers suck out any remaining edge at the time they offer best odds guaranteed.

GETHIN is a case in point, as my intention was to back him in the win market with a quarter of my overall stake and the place the remaining 75% on him to record a top 3 finish in this 6 runner field, thus maximising my chance of at least making a small profit if he wins, but minimising the risk of losing my total stake.

On Tuesday afternoon, I his odds were 9/2 in the win market and 4/7 in the top 3 finish market, which would have provided a bit of value when compared with my estimation that he has around a 20% chance of winning and a 67% chance of a top 3 finish, but for one reason, or another I kept finding other things to do and he soon started shortening in both market, with his current odds now down to 3/1 and 2/9 , respectively.

Are any readers finding that they have a similar problem when attempting to find value in the current betting markets?

All the best,

Rob.

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