[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Chester racecourse is unique amongst U.K. tracks for a number of reasons, namely:

– It is exceptionally tight being just over 1 mile in circumference
– Horses spend a significant proportion of the race running around tight bends
– It is situated slap bang in the middle of a busy city
– it is cramped meaning that it is noisy thanks to always attracting an exuberant crowd

It is therefore no surprise that it is a specialist track, which requires horses to be well balanced both physically and mentally and possess the ability to make a quick break from the stalls to gain a favourable racing position, as whilst a low drawn horses can be favourable on such a tight circuit, the benefit is negated if the horse ends up sitting behind a wall of rivals and has to lose ground by running wide at the bends to make a challenge.

Over the years, my betting activity at Chester’s May meeting has dwindled to an average of just 1 wager each year, but I tend to monitor the results closely to identify runners that may be worth considering in the future, as I believe that if a horse can cope well with the demands of this unique track, it is likelly to flourish when racing at more conventional venues.

I have no bets for today, but I have identify a couple of possibilities over Thursday and Friday, which I will start analysing and share if appropriate.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Although there was plenty of quality racing over last weekend, only two performances really stood out from amongst the crowd.

The first came in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in the early hours of Saturday (GMT).

ALWAYS A RUNNER – this 3yo filly retained her unbeaten record with a 1 1/4 lengths success for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 119. Her winning figure was the second best RPR during the past decade and after only 3 starts she has plenty of potential for further improvement as she gains experience. It will be interesting to see whether her connections enter her for the Preakness Stakes later this month, as she is currently rated 1 lb higher than the winner of what appears to be a fairly moderate Kentucky Derby and she would receive a fillies allowance.

However, the real highlight of the weekend was the performance of the winner in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday.

BOW ECHO – retained his unbeaten record with a fourth victory by beating GSTAAD by 2 3/4 lengths, with a further 8 lengths back to the third placed finisher. His winning RPR of 127 is the highest figure awarded in this race for over a decade and is a massive 16 lbs higher than his previous career best RPR. He is clearly very talented, but I feel that his connections have made the right decision to bypass the Irish Guineas later this month, as horses who produce massive performances after a fairly long break often “bounce” when asked to quickly back up that effort. He should prove difficult to beat when next seen at Royal Ascot, albeit the round course will undoubtedly provide this colt with some different challenges to overcome.

Unfortunately, Sunday’s 1000 Guineas was a fairly moderate affair, with the winner TRUE LOVE recording a very average RPR of 115, albeit perhaps we shouldn’t be overly surprised as none of the winners over the past decade have achieved a class par figure.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have an hour before we need to leave for our final Jazz Festival concert, which should be enough time to review the horse racing performances from Thursday and Friday.

Starting with Punchestown on Thursday, there were no class par figures but it is worth mentioning a couple of performances in particular.

KOPEK DES BORDES – looked to have the Grade 1 novice chase at his mercy, prior to falling when in the lead at the second last fence. He remains one of only 3 novice chasers who recorded a Group 1 class par figure during last season, but like LULAMBA who also fell in his subsequent race after the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham, he will need to polish up his jumping technique if he is to fulfill his potential.

BOB OLINGER – signed off his career by winning the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle and can now look forward to a hopefully long and comfortable retirement. It is worrying that the winners of the 3 Group 1 staying hurdles run during this Spring have all been aged 11 and we can only hope that there will be an injection of new blood next season to provide some much needed quality into this division, albeit it is difficult to see where it will come from at this stage.

The results from Punchestown on Friday, only produced a single class par performance:

DINOBLUE – recorded a joint career best RPR of 166 when winning the Grade 2 Mares Chase for the second successive year, proving that she remains the dominant Mare over fences, having already retained her crown in the Cheltenham equivalent race back in March. However, she is now a 9yo and I wonder how much longer she has before she is retired for breeding purposes?

The other interesting point to note is that both KING RASKO GREY and LOSSIEMOUTH won the Grade 1 events on the fourth day of the festival, giving trainer Willie Mullins a nap hand of 5 Cheltenham Festival winners to double up at this meeting, which is a statistic worth noting for next year.

There was plenty of Listed/Group action on the flat on Friday, spanning 3 meetings at Ascot, Goodwood and Newmarket, but only one race produced a couple of class par RPRs, namely the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes over 2 miles at Ascot.

SWEET WILLIAM – was the winner, by a short head for which he was awarded an RPR of 119, which is just 1 lb below his career best figure. He is an ultra consistent performer having won 7 of his 20 career starts, whilst never finishing worse than 4th, but as a 7yo, he is unlikely to find much further improvement, so will probably continue to just fall short against the top stayers, albeit he will always be of interest in the top finish markets.

CABALLO DE MAR – was giving the winner 2 lbs and recorded a career best RPR of 118, which suggests that this 5yo gelding remains on a shallow upward trajectory. He already has a Group 1 victory to his name, having won the Prix du Cadran at Longchamp last October, but for now I have marked him down as worth supporting at Group 3 level, or in weak Group 2 events.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It has been a weekend of near misses with THESECRETADVERSAY finishing fifth in the 2000 Guineas at 20/1, when I needed him to make the first 4 to provide an each way return, whilst EVOLUTIONIST did at least finish second in the 1000 Guineas at 18/1.

These results provided a return of 1.15 pts for my 1.0 pt stake, so a marginal profit of 0.15 pts.

With DOUBLE RUSH winning on Saturday to provide a hedged bet profit on 0.4 pts, it could have been a lot worse.

Betting bank 116.18 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A quiet morning, before 2 concerts at the Jazz Festival later today, so a chance to catch up with the results over the first few days of the week, plus a nice little earner from a hedged bet, as follows:

Both B365 and William Hill have boosted DOUBLE RUSH to win the 1.45 at Newmarket and on paper he appears to be the proverbial handicap certainty being 8 lbs well as he can run with a penalty for his latest course and distance victory compared with his revised official handicap rating.

However, I am not convinced, as the fact that more than one bookmaker has boosted his odds ring alarm bells with me, on the basis that they must believe he is vulnerable at the revised odds, as they are rarely charitable to us punters.

2.0 pts win with both Bet 365 and William Hill @ 6/4 returns 10.00 pts
5.6 pts lay with the exchange returns 10.00 pts after commission for a profit of 0.4 pts

Moving on to the action over the early part of this week.

MISSION CENTRAL – recorded a career best RPR of 112 when winning the Listed sprint over 5 furlongs at Naas on Monday, bringing his career record to 4 wins from 6 starts. As a 3yo, he is open to further improvement, but for now I have marked him as worth following over 5 or 6 furlongs at Group 3 and below.

The Grade 1 novice events over both hurdles and fences, plus the Champion Bumper at Punchestown on Tuesday and Wednesday, produced big priced winners that even a crystal ball gazer would have struggled to find, which resulted in a continuation of this season’s trend for moderate winners who fail to get anywhere near the Grade 1 class par RPR thresholds.

However, there were two bright spots, thanks to the Willie Mullins trained IL ETAIT TEMPS (RPR 179) and GAELIC WARRIOR (RPR 183), who both produced career best figures to follow up Cheltenham Championship race victories and thus cement their positions as the best chasers in their division for the season.

Spare a thought for the connections of MAJBOROUGH who again showed an almost complete lack of respect of the fences when blundering his way to a remote fourt place finish behind his stablemate IL ETAIT TEMPS. He clearly has a big engine so I just wonder whether there is a chance of him reverting to hurdling next season, in which case he could prove to be a dangerous rival to LOSSIEMOUTH, as a career best RPR of 179 over fences, would suggest that he may be capable of a Grade 1 class par figure over the smaller obstacles, if of course he can negotiate them safely.

I was at least able to add one new recruit to my tracker from Punchestown on Wednesday.

EVEN THO – spreadeagled her rivals to win the Grade 3 Mares’ Bumper by 16 lengths and remains unbeaten under rules having won her previous start at Limerick. She was awarded a career best RPR of 127 for her latest victory, which is not only the highest figure awarded to the winner of this event in the 6 years that it has been in existence, but also suggests that with the benefit of the 7 lbs Mares’s allowance she is the equal of the winner of the earlier winner of the Grade 1 Champion Bumper. She clearly has a bright future ahead of her and should be worth considering over hurdles next season below Grade 1 level.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

With 15 runners for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday and 19 runners for the 1000 Guineas on Sunday stretched across the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket, I have a feeling that one or both of the 1 mile classics may prove to be substandard affairs, which doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence that I will be make a profit on either race.

I shall therefore keep thing simple and try a couple of small stakes each way singles on the runners that I mention in my previous posts for these events on this thread, earlier this month.

THESECRETADVERSAY – recorded a career best RPR of 111 on his seasonal debut when winning a Group 3 Classic Trial at Leopardstown in April, which suggests that he has undoubtedly trained on as a 3yo. Based on that effort he doesn’t have that much to find with the colts at the head of the betting for the 2000 Guineas and with his fitness not in doubt, he may be the big priced outsider that often secures an each way return in this race.

0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 4 places) @ 20/1 with Bet 365 (anyone with an account at Coral or Ladbrokes can secure 25/1 on the same terms)

EVOLUTIONIST – also recorded a career best RPR of 109 on her seasonal debut when winning a Group 3 Classic Trial, this time at Longchamp in mid April. She already has form over the course and distance having finished third in the Group 1 Fillie Mile behind both PRECISE and VENETIAN LACE, who have both been declared to run in the 1000 Guineas. However, I am drawn to EVOLUTIONIST as since a fairly low key career debut, she has improved her RPR bu either 8 or 9 lbs each time she has raced, so if she can do so again, she would have strong claims, as she would equal the highest winning RPR since MINDING won back in 2016.
Maybe it is too much to ask, but she is worth chancing each way.

0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 4 places) @ 18/1 with Bet 365

Betting bank 114.63 (with 1.0 pt of bets placed for the weekend)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The Grade 1 novice events have been particularly treacherous at Punchestown this year and so it proved again for KOPEK DES BORDES who fell when just beginning to look the most likely winner.

Obviously, having hedged him I was guaranteed to make a small profit, but was fully expecting the funds to be sitting in with Boyalsport account, rather than on my exchange account.

There are plenty of top quality races tomorrow, both on the flat and over jumps, but nothing whets my appetite at the offered odds at present, but I will have another look in the morning.

Betting bank 115.63 pts

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Nothing to get the blood racing today at Punchestown, but I have taken advantage of Boylesports boosted odds of 8/11 on KOPEK DES BORDES to win the 5.25, which I then layed on the exchanges, just to keep the scoreboard ticking over, as follows:

2.0 pts @ 8/11 for a return of 3.45 pts

1.15 pts lay on the exchanges for a return of 3.45 pts after commission.

Guaranteed profit 0.3 pts

Betting bank 112.18 (with 3.15 pts outlay for today)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I am almost tempted by the 4/6 for a top 3 finish that Bet 365 are offering on INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, but will abstain as I rarely make money when making snap decisions.

As for the Jazz Festival, the name is a bit of a misnomer, as I wouldn’t class many of the acts we are seeing as being jazz orientated, but a I guess the name differentiates the festival from the classical music festivals which is held later this year.

As we only live a short walk from the venues, we will also be dipping in and out of the free events, as well as attending the ticketed concerts, so my posts will be a little sporadic.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Thanks, I think I will need more than just luck – perhaps even Devine intervention!!

Although, he has been backed this morning, so perhaps the God of Punting will be on my side??

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Thanks Mike.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I want to go out in a blaze of glory, or in complete ignominy in respect of the betting competition, so may I use my free bets as follows tomorrow:

4.15 Punchestown

£5 win on LOVE ME TENDER
£5 win on LOVE ME TENDER without Fruit de Mer and The Passing Wife

Many thanks,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Money be damned, punting is all about having fun and my biggest thrill is getting one over on the bookmakers!!

It is good to hear that more visitors are reading my posts and hopefully getting something out of this thread, if only understanding the need to be thorough and only bet when the odds are in your favour.

That said, it would be a real bonus if some of the regular visitors signed up to the site and shared their ideas on this thread, or raised questions regarding my approach, as I am a great believer in the power of discussion to improve performance.

We can all learn from the experiences of other like minded punters and let’s not forget there is no such thing as stupid questions, only idiotic answers!!

Anyway, back to business – PUTAPOUNDINTHEJAR was supported in the market and was backed down to 6/1, but could only finish fifth, although that was enough to produce a return of 0.8 pts, so a small profit on the day.

I was keen to back my theory that INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN is a Spring horse, as 4 of his top 5 RPRs have been achieved from mid March onwards, which suggests that he should hopefully outrun his odds in the Punchestown Gold Cup at 6.05 tomorrow.

However, I was hoping that he would be ridden by Mark Walsh who seems to bring out the best in this enigmatic chaser, whereas Keith Donoghue is in the saddle, who is also a top jockey, but has yet to finish in the first 3 from 5 attempts.

I shall therefore keep my powder dry and start assessing Thursday’s race cards.

Betting bank now 115.33 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It is going to be a busy few days for me, as not only is there a plethora of top quality racing action to analyse for potential bets, but I also have the very pleasant distraction of the Cheltenham Jazz Festival which starts tomorrow, for which we have booked plenty of tickets for live performances – nice!!

Anyway here are my thoughts on the results from last weekend.

The ‘Jumps Finale’ meeting at Sandown, produced three very moderate winning performances in the Graded events, as follows:

DOYEN QUEST – won the Grade 2 chase with an RPR of just 145, which doesn’t even qualify as a class par figure for a Listed event and is likely to be difficult to place next season as his OR was increased 6 lbs to 149.

EDWARDSTONE- won the Group 1 Chase with an RPR of 160, which rates as a Listed/Grade 3 performance, but at the age of 12 he has surely done enough to earn what will hopefully be a long and happy retirement.

JINGKO BLUE – won the Grade 2 Hurdle with an RPR of 153, which rates as a Grade 3 performance, but with his current OR he is also likely to be difficult to place over hurdles, so perhaps his future will be over fences, where his already a Grade 2 winner.

Saturday also saw some interesting flat racing at Navan and although the winners of the Listed and Group 3 events for 3yos failed to achieve class par performances, it is worth mentioning SCANDINAVIA, who took the Listed Vintage Crop Stakes with an RPR of 118. He has been in my tracker for some time now and was a dual Group 1 winner last year, but his seasonal debut performance suggests that he is likely to make his presence felt in the top staying events, albeit I am not convinced that odds of 2/1 for him to win the Ascot Gold Cup offer any value at this stage.

Sunday saw the seasonal debut of last year’s Prix de L’Arc de Triumphe winner DARYZ in the Group 1 Prix Ganay at Longchamp. His finishing burst of speed to win by 3 1/2 lengths was highly impressive and whilst his RPR of 126 was 2 lbs lower than his career best figure, it suggests that he will be a major player in all the top Group 1 middle distance events this season, along with CALANDAGAN and OMBUDSMAN.

The chance that they will all face each other at some stage is a fantastic prospect.

As a rule, I don’t take much notice of Class 4 handicaps for 3yos, but the last race at Sandown on Friday may prove to be a very strong event, from which I have taken the winner, LOST BOYS and runner up, INTO THE LIGHT as additions to my tracker, as I have a feeling that the BHA Handicapper may have underrated thei performances, in which case they may be worthing considering next time out.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

There was a marked contrast in the quality of the flat racing performances in the Group races at Sandown on Friday, when compared with the Graded jumps action on the following day, with all three winners recording class par RPRs for which they have been added to my tracker, as follows:

SADDADD – recorded a career best RPR of 119 when winning the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes over 10 furlongs. This was only his fifth start, suggesting that he should be capable of further improvement, but for now I have him down as being a solid Group 3 performer, who may be able of winning a weak Group 2 event.

OPERA BALOO – the Group 2 Bet 365 Mile looked to be a strong race on paper with 4 previous Group 1 winners and an unbeaten Group 2 miler in the field of 6 runners, so the fact that this Colt was able to win the race by a comfortable 3 lengths, despite carrying a 5 lbs penalty suggests that he has a very bright future. His career best winning RPR of 126 indicates, plus a previous Group 1 victory over 9 furlongs at Meydan suggests that he should be competitive at Group 1 level over 1 mile to 10 furlongs, especially when sent on his travels abroad.

RAAHEEB – stepped up significantly on his debut win in a Maiden at Ascot in September, to take the Group 3 Classic Trial over 10 furlongs by an easy 3 1/4 lengths. He was awarded a career best RPR of 113, which has only been equalled twice during the past decade. O have no doubt that he show further improvement as he gains experience, but for now he is worth considering in similar Group 3 events, or perhaps a weak Group 2.

I will provide my thoughts on the weekend action later this week, but in the meantime, I found it interesting that Betfred are offering a £2 million bonus for any horse that wins the Triple Crown, comprising of the 2000 Guineas, Epsom Derby and the St Leger, yet there is no mention of a bonus for any filly who is successful in the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and St Leger, which seems rather chauvinistic, or am I being too woke?

All the best,

Rob.

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