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RobmullParticipantHi folks,
As expected, ROYAL CHAMPION was unable to finish ahead of his main 3 rivals, but he did beat his other 4 rivals to finish fourth, to secure a return of 3.44 pts, so a nice start to a bright Sunday morning.
Once again, the star of the show at Sha Tin was the unbelievable KA YING RISING, who brought his unbeaten run to an incredible 20 starts when finishing 4 1/4 lengths ahead of his nearest rival in the Group 1 sprint over 6 furlongs.
I have never added him to my tracker, despite the fact that he always produces an RPR well above the class par for a Group 1 sprinter, as there is little point in supporting a horse who inevitably starts at odds of 1/20 or shorter – his SP today was 1/100!!
However, whilst he is undoubtedly the best sprinter on the planet, he is not a machine and remains flesh and blood, which suggests that sooner or later he will have an off day and get beaten, so perhaps he should be added to the tracker as one to lay?
Perhaps, I am being either very courageous, or acting as a complete idiot, as he is only 5 years old and shows no sign of deteriorating at this stage of his career, so could easily rack up another 20 straight wins, but if I can get the timing right I should be able to profit by laying him each time he races, for initially small stakes, which gradually increase over time?
I will ponder this conundrum over the next few months, as he is unlikely to be seen again until September, so no rush to make a decision.
Betting bank now 115.03 pts
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
As promised I have found a worthwhile bet, albeit I have travelled all the way to Sha Tin, Hong Kong for the QE II Cup over 10 furlongs at 9.55 tomorrow morning before identifying a bit of value.
Although there are 8 runners in the race, 4 stand out on form, namely:
ROMANTIC WARRIOR – who is virtually unbeatable in middle distance races at this track and is by far the most likely winner.
MASQUERADE BALL – Japanese raider who has won at this trip, but may be better over further and has not raced for 147 days, so may need the run.
SOSIE – French raider who has Group 1 wins at around this trip, but seems best over further on good ground, as when winning over 12 furlongs at this track when last seen back in December.
ROYAL CHAMPION – 8yo British raider, trained by Karl Burke, who has produced his best form at this trip, including a career best RPR of 123 on his latest start when winning a Group 1 event in Saudi Arabia. He has a bit to find with his main rivals, but has been running consistently of late and is 6 lbs clear of the 4 remaining contenders. He therefore appears to be worth a bet for a top 4 finish.
2.0 pts for a top 4 finish @ 18/25 with Bet 365.
Betting bank now 111.59 pts.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Well, the ‘Jump Finale’ meeting has turned into a damp squib both from a personal betting perspective and as a spectacle for the attendees at the track, due to the numerous late withdrawals caused by the quick ground.
The withdrawal of JONBON spoilt my guaranteed win, resulting in just a return of my stakes, whilst the two Grade 2 and the Grade 1 events were all won by horses that would are really nothing more than high class handicappers, so there is little chance of the form working out next season.
That said, it was heart warming to see the veteran EDWARDSTONE collect his fourth Grade 1 success at the grand old age of twelve.
I may have a couple of bets on the flat over the next few days, plus there a few that I am considering at Punchestown next week, once the final declarations have been made.
Betting bank now 113.59 pts
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have been betting against JONBON all season with varying success and see no reason why that strategy today in the Group 1 Celebration Chase at Sandown.
He faces some fairly stiff opposition today, albeit like him they are really only Grade 2 performers, but that shows how weak this race is when compared with a true Grade 1 contest.
I am not even convinced that JONBON is capable of being placed and both Bet 365 and William Hill appear to agree as they have both significantly boosted his odds for a top 2 finish, which has allowed me to back him with both bookmakers, whilst guaranteeing a profit by laying him on the exchanges, as follows:
2.0 pts with Bet 365 @ 11/10, plus 2.0 pts with William Hill @ Evens returns 8.2 pts
3.85 pts lay with the exchanges returns 8.2 pts after 5% commission
Leaving me with 0,35 pts profit whatever the outcome – not a great return, but it keeps the scoreboard ticking over.
Betting bank now 105.74 pts (with 7.85 pts placed today)
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Having ‘played’ on the exchanges for over a decade now, albeit intermittently and generally only laying runners that I have also backed at boosted odds with the bookmakers to guarantee a profit, I can at least empathise with your predicament.
My advice would be to keep things simple to start with and just try to find horses on Bet 365 when they first put up their odds that appear out of synch with the other bookmakers, then wait until convergence has taken place, prior to visiting the exchange to lay the horse.
This will at least provide useful experience of the speed of the odds movements on the exchanges and shouldn’t generate big losses if things don’t go your way.
Perhaps the next step is to attempt to play a race either using the win, or standard place markets, with just a handful of runners rather than the usual big fields that are seen in Irish Maiden, or Handicap Hurdles.
You will definitely require confidence and the ability to think on your feet – the more runners involved, the greater the risk of making an error and thus taking a sizeable hit to profits.
Finally, good luck with finding an accurate method for calculating top finish prices based on win market odds, as this is something that I have been trying to get to grips with for about 12 months, with no real success, as the top finish odds appear to be determined by a number of factors, including the obvious win odds, number of runners, number of places required and the strength of the opposition, hence there is no standard template that can be applied for an individual race.
Happy to go into further detail if required.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have a feeling that it could turn out to be one of those weekends in which I struggle to find a worthwhile bet, despite having a number of tracker entries due to run over the next few days.
I was expecting to put up MONTREGARD for tomorrow in the Bet 365 Handicap Chase at Sandown after the gelding was a late withdrawal from the Scottish Grand National last Saturday, but his chance of winning this week’s race is only marginally better, yet he is trading at best odds of just 5/1 with just 4 each way places on offer, whilst I was able to secure 10/1 with 6 places last weekend, so no bet.
My other horses of interest all have question marks hanging over them, mainly due to the fact that they will be making their seasonal debuts and/or ground conditions may not be ideal, yet the betting markets do not appear to be taking account of these factors to a sufficient level to enable me to accept the risks.
I will post again on this thread, if I do find a decent investment, but I if not I will be monitoring the weekend results closely to identify further entries for my tracker, as this is the time of year to set the foundations for a hopefully profitable flat season.
Good luck to all readers for their bets over the weekend.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
With only two winning favourites and only one 3yo Group 1 class par performance during the past decade, it often pays to look beyond the obvious when considering potential bets in the 1000 Guineas.
There are currently 24 entries for the race, so here are my thoughts on the 8 candidates that have made my shortlist:
AZLEET (RPR 106) – recorded her best RPR when winning the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7 furlongs at Newmarket last week at 50/1. That was a huge 12 lbs improvement on her juvenile form, but still leaves her at the foot of my shortlist based on RPRs, whilst she may also struggle to see out the additional furlong.
DIAMOND NECKLACE (RPR 110) – remained unbeaten in 3 starts as a juvenile, culminating in victory in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. The form of that race did not appear particularly strong at the time and the subsequent defeat of the second and third home in classic trials in France this month has done nothing to change my opinion. It is also unlikely that Aidan O’Brien will declare all of the first 3 fillies in the betting market for the same race, which suggests that she may be the obvious candidate for the French equivalent.
EVOLUTIONIST (RPR 109) – showed consistent improvement in 4 starts as a 2yo, culminating in a solid third place finish (btn 4 1/4 lengths) behind PRECISE in the Group 1 Fillies Mile over the 1000 Guineas course and distance. She appears to have continued her upward curve by winning the Group 3 Prix de la Grotte over 1 mile at Longchamp on her seasonal debut, for which she was awarded her career best RPR for that effort, which ties in with DIAMOND NECKLACE as the have both beaten NARISSA by just over 2 lengths. She could end up returning to Longchamp for the French equivalent, but she holds fair each way claims if turning up at Newmarket in early May.
MY HIGHNESS (RPR 108) – recorded her best RPR when winning a Group 2 event at Deauville in August on her last start as a 2yo, but didn’t match that effort on her seasonal debut when finishing runner up in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. That said, French training legend, Andre Fabre rarely has his classic contenders fully wound up for their first run, whilst the step up to a mile is sure to suit this filly. Another with each way aspirations if she travels over from France.
PRECISE (RPR 114) – made rapid progress on each of her last 4 starts as a 2yo culminating in victories in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, followed by an even more impressive win in the Group 1 Fillies Mile, for which she was awarded her top RPR. Based on the latter effort she has the beating of EVOLUTIONIST and is the only 2yo filly last year to have achieved a Group 1 class par figure. She holds clear form claims in this race and is the current 9/4 favourite, but suffered a set back a few weeks ago, which is not the ideal preparation for making her seasonal debut.
THE PRETTIEST STAR (RPR 104) – only ran twice as a 2yo winning a Maiden at Nottingham and followed up with a second place finish in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes over 7 furlongs at Newmarket, albeit the third and fourth place finishers have not franked the form in their subsequent starts. I also have concerns that she may struggle to see out the mile, especially on her seasonal debut.
TRUE LOVE (RPR 112) – had a busy 2yo career winning thrice and finishing runner up thrice, with her only poor run coming on her last start over 5 furlongs at the Breeders Cup. Her best RPR was achieved when winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 6 furlongs at Newmarket. She appears to have trained on with a victory in the Group 3 Priory Belle Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown, where she gave the impression that she is likely to stay 1 mile. She may just be underrated by the betting market when compared to her stablemates, PRECISE and DIAMOND NECKLACE.
VENETIAN SUN (RPR 108) – was unbeaten in her first 4 starts over 6 furlongs last year, including a victory in the Group 1, Prix Morny where she beat GSTAAD by a short neck. That form was franked by both the runner up and third home WISE APPROACH, who both went on to win Group 1 events. However this filly was then subsequently beaten 2 1/2 lengths into third place behind PRECISE in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over 7 furlongs at the Curragh. Although she was staying on at the end of that race, her breeding suggests she may lack the stamina for 1 mile, especially on her first start of the season.
With doubts over my two favoured candidates turning up at Newmarket, this is not a race that I wish to get involved in at this stage, but I will closely monitor the Racing Post over the next few days in the hope that the trainers of EVOLUTIONIST and/or MY HIGHNESS confirm their intended targets.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
After the latest set of ‘scratchings’ for the 2000 Guineas, it is now time for me to start my analysis for the first classic of the season.
OK, cards on the table, it appears on paper to be a very moderate renewal as none of the 20 remaining entries were capable of recording a performance that achieved a Group 1 class par RPR during their 2yo careers.
That said, there is a massive elephant shaped void in the entry list, which goes by the name of GSTAAD, who was erroneously withdrawn from the race due to a technical hitch last month, but could still be supplemented at a significant cost at the 6 day stage, albeit his trainer Aidan O’Brien has intimated that the colt may be aimed at the French equivalent.
If GSTAAD is supplemented for the race, his presence will have a significant impact on both my betting strategy and the betting markets, as he achieved the 2yo Group 1 class par RPR of 117 twice, in finishing runner up to the ill fated GERWAN in the Dewhurst Stakes, which he then followed up when winning the Breeders Cup Turf.
In the meantime, I currently have a shortlist of 7 entries for the race, but quite frankly I am struggling to enthuse about any of them, as they all have questions to answer, as follows:
BOW ECHO (RPR 111) – the current 11/4 favourite, but his best performance was achieved in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over the Guineas course and distance, but winners of this race tend not to turn into Group 1 milers, but often prove more suited when stepped up in distances and has yet to run this season, albeit his trainer believes that he will be fit enough to be competitive. Current odds appear to short in light of my concerns and may prove to be a false favourite.
DISTANT STORM (RPR 113) – twice finished behind the ill fated GERWAN, but did finish 3rd in the Dewhurst Stakes, for which the form has worked out well with the fifth horse OXAGON winning the Craven Stakes, whilst the sixth (ALPARSIAN) and fourth (ZAVATERI) finishing first and second in the Greenham stakes. He has yet to race this season, but his trainer Charlie Appleby has been responsible for 3 of the last 4 winners of the 2000 Guineas.
OXAGON (RPR 110) – has proven his fitness by winning the Group 3 Craven Stakes, but his winning RPR was below the class par figure, suggesting that he is an unlikely winner of the 2000 Guineas.
POWER BLUE (RPR 112) – achieved his Group 1 victory in the Phoenix Stakes over 6 furlongs at the Curragh, but subsequently finished runner up to THESECRETADVERSARY in the Group 3 Red Rock Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown earlier this month.
Likely to prove best when returned to sprinting.PUERTO RICO (RPR 116) – finished last season with two Group 1 victories in France over 7 furlongs at Longchamp and 8 furlongs at Saint-Cloud, but on neither occasion did he achieve the Group 1 class par figure. I am always wary of the strength of the Group 1 form from French races for 2yo and prior to these victories he had been beaten by both POWER BLUE and OXAGON. Current best odds of 6/1 seem skinny in light of his CV to date.
THESECRETADVERSAY (RPR 111) – improved significantly on his 2yo form to beat POWER BLUE at Leopardstown recording a career best RPR of 111 in the process. He is likely to appreciate the step up to 1 mile and at current best odds of 40/1 may just be the joker in the pack that outruns his price to reward each way support.
ZAVATERI (RPR 116) – surprise winner of the National Stakes beating GSTAAD by a head for which he was awarded his RPR of 116, but the form was reversed in the Dewhurst in no uncertain terms. He was beaten into second by ALPARSIAN in the Greenham Stakes where he could only muster a disappointing RPR of 106, which suggests that he may have already peaked during his first season.
Overall, I firmly believe that the Dewhurst Stakes form from last season may hold the key to finding the winner of the 2000 Guineas and I was initially keen to back GERWAN prior to his accident. Thereafter, GSTAARD was promoted to the top of my shortlist, but he is unbackable until a final decision is made on his participation in this race.
The other entry that I will be considering once the final field is known is THESECRETADVERSAY, as I believe that he could prove to be the surprise each way contender which regularly bears fruit in this race.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
As promised here are a few more horses that produced performances at Newmarket and Newbury which deserve to be included in my tracker:
RUN TO FREEDOM – 8yo horse who ran his best race for almost 3 years to win the Group 3 Abernant Stakes over 6 furlongs at Newmarket on Thursday. His winning RPR of 117 suggests that he is worth following in similar Group 3 events, plus he may be worth a small each way punt in the Group 1 July Cup as his previous two attempts have resulted in him finishing runner up at 28/1 and third at 40/1.
I’M THE ONE – 3yo filly who spreadeagled her rivals to win a Class 3 Maiden for fillies over 10 furlongs at Newbury on Friday by 6 lengths. She was making her debut in this race and clearly has the potential for significant improvement, as she looked far from the finished article yet recorded an RPR of 92, which suggests that she should prove competitive in a Listed, or Group 3 Oaks Trial next time out.
CONVERGENT – 4yo colt who did not get the best of trips during the race, but still managed to give weight to each of his 5 rivals in the Group 3 John Porter Stakes over 1 mile 4 furlongs at Newbury on Saturday. He was awarded a career best RPR of 121 for this victory, which can probably be upgraded a little in the circumstances and should be capable of acquitting himself with merit in Group 2, or even weak top level events.
STEM – 4yo gelding who could only finish ninth in the ferociously competitive Class 2 Sping Mile Handicap over a mile at Newbury on Saturday. However, the quick ground was never going to play to his strengths, which suggests that he ran well on his seasonal debut and is very well treated off an OR of 89 compared with his career best RPR of 100. He is likely to be seen at his best over a straight mile on ground that is no quicker than G/S.
WATER TO WINE – 3yo colt who was an impressive 4 1/4 lengths winner of the Class 2 Maiden over 1 mile 3 furlongs at Newbury on Saturday. He was making his racecourse debut and is highly likely to improve significantly on the RPR of 94 which he was awarded for this victory, suggesting that he should be worth considering in Listed/Group 3 events in the not too distant future.
Keen eyed readers may have noticed that I have not mentioned any of the Guineas Trials so far, as I intend to cover them off separately in the next day, or so.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
MONTREGARD was a late withdrawal from the Scottish Grand National due to officially heavy ground, so 1.0 pt stake returned, but we may not have long to wait to see whether he is as well handicapped as I think he is, as he entered for the Bet 365 Handicap Chase at Sandown next Saturday, for which he is already on my shortlist for consideration.
As a general rule, I don’t tend to take much notice of performances achieved in flat races below Listed status, however two of the exceptions to this rule are the 3yo non handicap events at the Newmarket Craven meeting and the 2 day meeting at Newbury that directly follows on, in which it is often following winners who are awarded very high RPRs.
Not all the results from Newmarket have as yet been awarded RPRs, so there may be more to follow, but so far I have identified the following additions to my tracker:
TALK OF NEW YORK – 3yo colt who was the comfortable winner of the Class 2 Conditions Stakes over 7 furlongs on Tuesday. He recorded a career best RPR of 105 for that effort, which suggests that he should be worth following in races up to Listed status, or perhaps weak Group 3 events, albeit I doubt that his entry in the 2000 Guineas will reap rewards.
DAMYSUS – 4yo colt who made short work of his rivals to win the Group 3, Earl Of Sefton Stakes over 9 furlongs on Wednesday. He was already in my tracker having won a similar Group 3 over the same course and distance last October, but his latest career best RPR of 123, suggests that he is worth upgrading as based on this evidence he appears to be capable of winning a Grpup 2, or even a weak Group 1 over either a mile, or 10 furlongs.
PORTCULLIS – 3yo colt who was an impressive winner of the Class 2 Wood Ditton Stakes over a mile on Thursday. It is never easy to judge the worth of the winner’s performance in this race as it is restricted to previously unraced runners, but he was awarded a massive debut RPR of 99, which suggests that he should be capable of winning a novice event, or perhaps a weak Listed race in the near future.
MAHO BAY – 3yo colt who ran out the comfortable winner of the Class 2 Novice Stakes over 10 furlongs on Thursday. He was awarded an RPR of 103 for this effort, which was a significant improvement on his admittedly good debut effort (RPR 91) when winning over 11 furlongs at Kempton, all of which suggests that he will not be out of place in a Listed/Group 3 Derby Trial next month.
That’s all for now, but I will provide my thoughts regarding any further additions to the tracker from either Newmarket, or Newbury once the RPRs have been awarded.
Betting bank now 113.59 pts
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
ADVERTISED certainly ran a big race, to finish runner up at an SP of 12/1, despite becoming a little unbalanced when encountering the dip, to provide a return of 2.32 pts.
He certainly looks capable of further improvement, but I guess it depends on how the handicapper reacts as to whether he will be one to follow in the short term and I would be wary of backing him again on either course at Newmarket, without evidence that he can negotiate the dip.
Moving on, I was not surprised to hear yesterday that CONSTITUTION HILL would not be declared for the John Porter Stakes at Newbury, due to the likelihood of quick ground. However it does raise the question of how he will be campaigned during the season, if he is to only run on slow turf, in which case a dry spring and summer are likely to scupper any plans for him to take in the Ebor Handicap at York in August, followed by a stab at the Melbourne Cup.
I mention these two races as he is close to the top of the antepost list for both events and I worry that fans of CONSTITUTION HILL will be backing him over the next few months, only to find that they don’t get a run for their money.
If the early antepost market for the John Porter has taught us anything, it is that the bookmakers will not be taking any chances and are therefore likely to offer him at ridiculously short odds, whilst pricing up the other entries as if CONSTITUTION HILL is not involved in the race, as seen when news of his non participation resulted in only marginal changes to the odds of the remaking candidates on Wednesday.
My advice for punters when considering a bet in a race in which CONSTITUTION HILL has been entered is a follows:
1. Do not back any horse antepost, as better odds are likely to be available on the day of the race, when the massive additional overround has been removed by market forces.
2. Do not contemplate backing CONSTITUTION HILL until bookmakers have issued their odds boosts for the day, as he is likely to be the subject of plenty of offers, which may just turn out to offer value.
3. If CONSTITUTION HILL is sent on his travels for a race outside of the U.K. and Ireland, if possible back him on the local pari mutual (Tote) as overseas punters are very likely to less influenced by the hype surrounding him.By following these simple rules, we should at least be able to minimise the risk of suffering unnecessary losses.
The final declarations for the Scottish Grand National were published earlier today, at which time my initial reaction was that it will be a weak renewal based on the fact that the top weight runs off an OR of just 145.
That said there are a number of apparently well handicapped novice chasers in the field, so it could prove to be very competitive and may just produce a candidate or two for next year’s top staying handicap chases.
Possible the best handicapped horse in the field is MONTREGARD, who was added to my tracker when winning his latest race at Ascot back in February. Despite only a 7yo, he’s is a second season chaser who has won 4 of his 10 starts over fences and appears well treated off his current OR of 132, compared with his latest career best RPR of 142. Although he is yet to race over further than 3 miles, he has generally been full of running at the finishing line, whilst his Dosage Index figure of 0.54 suggests that he has sound claims of staying 4 miles.
0.50 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places) at 10/1 (current joint best odds, but others only offering 5 places max) with Boylesport
Betting bank now 112.59 (with 1.0 pt of bets for Saturday).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I apologise if I sound like a broken record, but I would try and keep things as simple as possible and would use data from an existing ‘trusted’ source in respect of both the ‘fiction’ variables, as follows:
The going correction from the Racing Post ‘analysis of winning times’ section which can be found on the online results page provides their interpretation of the going based on the actual times recorded and often differs from the official going supplied by the track. This is especially important where the hurdles track has a different configuration from the chase track and/or the going changes during the day due to rain, or strong sunshine/drying winds.
As to whether the track is is stiff (quick) or stiff (slow), again I would again use the Racing Post Standard Times as my starting point and divide the time for each race distance for each track by the race distance to obtain a time per furlong figure for each race distance. The quickest time per furlong figure across all racetracks can the be allotted a baseline figure (say 100), then a course/distance correction can be calculated for every distance at every track – these would all be less than 100.
If you want to be really radical, you could always use the Race IQ finishing times for every horse in the race rather than calculating them using the lengths beaten to estimate their finishing times, which can vary depending on how tired the horse is at the end of a race – consider the difference between a horse that that is still galloping, verses a horse that was prominent but can barely walk in the final few yards of the race..
I hope this helps and happy to provide more information, if required.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
A rare bet on the flat in April for Thursday in the Class 2, 6F 3yo Handicap at Newmarket (1.50) on Thursday.
ADVERTISED – will be making his seasonal debut, but registered 2 wins from 5 starts as a 2yo and although both victories were achieved on synthetic surfaces, he recorded his best RPR of 91 when finishing 4th at 50/1 on his final start of the season in a valuable Class 2 Conditions event over 7 furlongs at York in October. He weakened in the last furlong losing 2 places in the process, which suggests that the step back in distance should suit and he is reasonably treated of his current OR of 90. His trainer Grant Tuer has his horses in good form, but the most intriguing aspect is that master tactician Jamie Spencer has been booked to ride which will be the first time he has joined forces with this stable during the past 5 years. This may prove to be a complete shot in the dark, but I couldn’t resist a small each way bet at the prices.
0.25 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) with Bet 365 @ 33/1 (only 20/1 with the other major firms that have priced up the race, so far).
Flat racing in Europe is beginning to ratchet up this month and there were 6 Group 3 Classic Trials held on Sunday, split between Longchamp and Leopardstown, from which 3 winners have been added to my tracker, as follows:
EVOLUTIONIST – 3yo filly trained by Karl Burke, who recorded a career best RPR of 109 on her visit to France to take the Prix de la Grotte over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. Although I am not convinced at this stage that she is capable of winning above Group 3 level, she did finish 3rd (btn 4 1/2 lengths) in the Group 1, Fillies Mile at Newmarket, which is a major form boost for the Aidan O’Brien trained winner that day, PRECISE who is currently clear favourite for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.
KOMOREBI – 3yo colt trained by Andre Fabre, was victorious in the Prix de Fontainebleau over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. He recorded a career best RPR of 112 and should be capable of winning again at Group 3 level, albeit his profile does not suggest he is ready to step up in class.
TRUE LOVE – 3yo filly trained by Aidan O’Brien, who recorded an RPR of 111 when winning the Priory Belle Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown. She ran 7 times as a 2yo and recorded 2 Group 2 and a Group 1 victory all at sprint trips, but appeared to see out this longer distance well. On breeding she should see out a mile, which makes her worth considering for the 1000 Guineas, for which she is currently joint third favourite behind 2 of her stablemates namely PRECISE and DIAMOND NECKLACE.
The CONSTITUTION HILL saga moves on to Newbury on Saturday, where he has as expected been entered for the Group 3 John Porter Stakes over 12 furlongs on Saturday, although Nicky Henderson has stated that he is unlikely to run if the ground is too quick.
I did have a quick look at the antepost markets for the race, when I heard that the 9yo gelding was vying for favouritism as I thought there may be some value to be found in respect of one or two of his 9 fellow entries.
However, the bookmakers appear to be running scared of the punters as they appear to have priced up the race without CONSTITUTION HILL and then inserted him at around 3/1 or 4/1, depending on their level of cowardice, resulting in a best odds overround of 126% across the major bookmakers, with a couple of firms offering a 146% book, which is appalling value on a 10 runner race, with no NRNB safety net.
I suspect that better odds will be available on most of the declared runners on the day of the race.
Betting bank now 111.27 pts (with a 0.5 pt bet for Thursday).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Days 2 and 3 of the Aintree festival produced similar results in relation to the 7 Grade 1 events, with none of the runners recording a class par RPR worthy of anything other than Grade 2 or Grade 3/Listed performances.
This is not unusual for Aintree, so perhaps it is time for the National Hunt pattern race committee to bite the bullet and realise that not all of the current Grade 1 races should be given the same designation. Either the better quality Grade 1 s could be redesignated as Premium Grade 1s, or the weaker races could be relegated to Grade 2, or even Grade 3/Listed status (albeit retaining the same level of prize money).
Alternatively, in an attempt to counter the problem of small fields in many of the weaker graded races, they could be turned into graded handicaps perhaps with a limited span of weights, which would hopefully boost produce more competitive events, which in turn would attract more punters – it seems to have worked with the National Hunt Chase and the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.
Ironically, the only performance at Aintree that achieved the Grade 1 class par figure was that of I AM MAXIMUS (176) who won the Grand National and is undoubtedly the classiest winner of the race since the introduction of RPRs 40 years ago. – what a performance!!
Unfortunately, there are no Grade 1 chases over further than 3 miles 2 1/2 furlongs in either the U.K. or Ireland, but I wonder whether JP McManus and Willie Mullins will be tempted to send I AM MAXIMUS to Auteuil, France in mid May for the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris, which is run over 3 miles and 6 furlongs which is worth over £300k to the winner, as the horse would have strong claims against his French counterparts?
I have added the winner of the last race at the Aintree festival, the Grade 2 Bumper to my tracker:
FORTHFACTOR – recorded a career best RPR of 130 for his 2 1/2 lengths victory, which suggests that he should have a bright future over obstacles if taking to hurdles.
As I mentioned in my previous post on this thread, the Grand National ihas been slowly evolving over the past decade and now bares little resemblance to the race it once was. That said, it remains a fascinating puzzle for punters to crack, albeit the criteria for finding the winner has to be refined frequently.
With that in mind, I have been considering some tweaks for my methodology for producing next year’s shortlist, as follows:
The best performing horses in recent renewals have either won, or finished second (beaten less than 5 lengths) in at least one Grade 1 or 2 chase, or have won a Grade 3 Chase (including handicaps). Horses with an Official Rating below 146 can be safely discarded.
The runners at the head of the weights do not need to have much in hand based on their best RPR figures when compared with their current Official Rating, whereas the lower weights need to have a significant positive difference between the 2 ratings.
Stamina is imperative to see out the race, which suggests that runners either need to have won a chase over at least 3 1/2 miles, or have finished well over at least 3 miles 1 furlong and have a Dosage Index of less than 0.75.
Whilst the fences are far less demanding than they were in the past, meaning that average jumpers can bludgeon their way around, it is important that they are well balanced horses with quick feet to ensure that they can get out of trouble if either meeting a fence wrong, or landing awkwardly.
With a guaranteed field of 34 runners, it is important that a shortlist candidate has run with credit in a race with at least 20 runners.
Although, I AM MAXIMUS was 10 years old, ideally shortlisted runners should be younger, in line with the previous 9 winners and have run in no more than 16 chases, the only caveat being if the horse recorded a top 4 finish in the race last year and was beaten no more than 10 lengths.
Ideally, shortlist candidates must have shown good recent form, or have a valid excuse for a poor run.
Shortlist candidates should not have a history of leading or racing prominently early.
Finally, preference should be given to Irish trained runners.
There is no need to come up with specific qualification figures for these criteria at this stage, or define how many requirements need to be met to make the shortlist, but at least I have documented my plan of attack for next year, whilst this year’s race is still fresh in my mind.
All the best,
Rob.
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