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RobmullParticipantHi folks,
It is going to be a busy few days for me, as not only is there a plethora of top quality racing action to analyse for potential bets, but I also have the very pleasant distraction of the Cheltenham Jazz Festival which starts tomorrow, for which we have booked plenty of tickets for live performances – nice!!
Anyway here are my thoughts on the results from last weekend.
The ‘Jumps Finale’ meeting at Sandown, produced three very moderate winning performances in the Graded events, as follows:
DOYEN QUEST – won the Grade 2 chase with an RPR of just 145, which doesn’t even qualify as a class par figure for a Listed event and is likely to be difficult to place next season as his OR was increased 6 lbs to 149.
EDWARDSTONE- won the Group 1 Chase with an RPR of 160, which rates as a Listed/Grade 3 performance, but at the age of 12 he has surely done enough to earn what will hopefully be a long and happy retirement.
JINGKO BLUE – won the Grade 2 Hurdle with an RPR of 153, which rates as a Grade 3 performance, but with his current OR he is also likely to be difficult to place over hurdles, so perhaps his future will be over fences, where his already a Grade 2 winner.
Saturday also saw some interesting flat racing at Navan and although the winners of the Listed and Group 3 events for 3yos failed to achieve class par performances, it is worth mentioning SCANDINAVIA, who took the Listed Vintage Crop Stakes with an RPR of 118. He has been in my tracker for some time now and was a dual Group 1 winner last year, but his seasonal debut performance suggests that he is likely to make his presence felt in the top staying events, albeit I am not convinced that odds of 2/1 for him to win the Ascot Gold Cup offer any value at this stage.
Sunday saw the seasonal debut of last year’s Prix de L’Arc de Triumphe winner DARYZ in the Group 1 Prix Ganay at Longchamp. His finishing burst of speed to win by 3 1/2 lengths was highly impressive and whilst his RPR of 126 was 2 lbs lower than his career best figure, it suggests that he will be a major player in all the top Group 1 middle distance events this season, along with CALANDAGAN and OMBUDSMAN.
The chance that they will all face each other at some stage is a fantastic prospect.
As a rule, I don’t take much notice of Class 4 handicaps for 3yos, but the last race at Sandown on Friday may prove to be a very strong event, from which I have taken the winner, LOST BOYS and runner up, INTO THE LIGHT as additions to my tracker, as I have a feeling that the BHA Handicapper may have underrated thei performances, in which case they may be worthing considering next time out.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
There was a marked contrast in the quality of the flat racing performances in the Group races at Sandown on Friday, when compared with the Graded jumps action on the following day, with all three winners recording class par RPRs for which they have been added to my tracker, as follows:
SADDADD – recorded a career best RPR of 119 when winning the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes over 10 furlongs. This was only his fifth start, suggesting that he should be capable of further improvement, but for now I have him down as being a solid Group 3 performer, who may be able of winning a weak Group 2 event.
OPERA BALOO – the Group 2 Bet 365 Mile looked to be a strong race on paper with 4 previous Group 1 winners and an unbeaten Group 2 miler in the field of 6 runners, so the fact that this Colt was able to win the race by a comfortable 3 lengths, despite carrying a 5 lbs penalty suggests that he has a very bright future. His career best winning RPR of 126 indicates, plus a previous Group 1 victory over 9 furlongs at Meydan suggests that he should be competitive at Group 1 level over 1 mile to 10 furlongs, especially when sent on his travels abroad.
RAAHEEB – stepped up significantly on his debut win in a Maiden at Ascot in September, to take the Group 3 Classic Trial over 10 furlongs by an easy 3 1/4 lengths. He was awarded a career best RPR of 113, which has only been equalled twice during the past decade. O have no doubt that he show further improvement as he gains experience, but for now he is worth considering in similar Group 3 events, or perhaps a weak Group 2.
I will provide my thoughts on the weekend action later this week, but in the meantime, I found it interesting that Betfred are offering a £2 million bonus for any horse that wins the Triple Crown, comprising of the 2000 Guineas, Epsom Derby and the St Leger, yet there is no mention of a bonus for any filly who is successful in the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and St Leger, which seems rather chauvinistic, or am I being too woke?
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Nothing of interest for tomorrow, but I do have a selection for the 3.40 at Punchestown on Tuesday, which is a Listed Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles 1/2 furlong.
PUTAPOUNDINTHEJAR – I mentioned this gelding on this thread a while ago, suggesting that he would be of interest in a handicap hurdle at this meeting provided that Sean Bowen rode him and the plan has come together. They joined forces to win a lesser event last season at the Punchestown Festival and Sean Bowen was also in the saddle when the gelding recorded his career best RPR of 130 when finishing sixth in the Grade 3 Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in November. Since I added PUTAPOUNDINTHEJAR in my tracker he has won a low level handicap on the flat at Bellewstown, so is clearly in good form and an OR of 124 suggests that he is well treated compared with his career best RPR.
This feels like an old fashioned Tony Martin trained handicap plunge, so I have gone in early, as follows:
0.25 pts each way (1/5 odds for 5 places) @ 11/1 with Bet 365 ( Ladbrokes and Coral have him at 14/1, but my accounts with them were closed down some time ago).
Betting bank now 114.53 pts
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
As expected, ROYAL CHAMPION was unable to finish ahead of his main 3 rivals, but he did beat his other 4 rivals to finish fourth, to secure a return of 3.44 pts, so a nice start to a bright Sunday morning.
Once again, the star of the show at Sha Tin was the unbelievable KA YING RISING, who brought his unbeaten run to an incredible 20 starts when finishing 4 1/4 lengths ahead of his nearest rival in the Group 1 sprint over 6 furlongs.
I have never added him to my tracker, despite the fact that he always produces an RPR well above the class par for a Group 1 sprinter, as there is little point in supporting a horse who inevitably starts at odds of 1/20 or shorter – his SP today was 1/100!!
However, whilst he is undoubtedly the best sprinter on the planet, he is not a machine and remains flesh and blood, which suggests that sooner or later he will have an off day and get beaten, so perhaps he should be added to the tracker as one to lay?
Perhaps, I am being either very courageous, or acting as a complete idiot, as he is only 5 years old and shows no sign of deteriorating at this stage of his career, so could easily rack up another 20 straight wins, but if I can get the timing right I should be able to profit by laying him each time he races, for initially small stakes, which gradually increase over time?
I will ponder this conundrum over the next few months, as he is unlikely to be seen again until September, so no rush to make a decision.
Betting bank now 115.03 pts
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
As promised I have found a worthwhile bet, albeit I have travelled all the way to Sha Tin, Hong Kong for the QE II Cup over 10 furlongs at 9.55 tomorrow morning before identifying a bit of value.
Although there are 8 runners in the race, 4 stand out on form, namely:
ROMANTIC WARRIOR – who is virtually unbeatable in middle distance races at this track and is by far the most likely winner.
MASQUERADE BALL – Japanese raider who has won at this trip, but may be better over further and has not raced for 147 days, so may need the run.
SOSIE – French raider who has Group 1 wins at around this trip, but seems best over further on good ground, as when winning over 12 furlongs at this track when last seen back in December.
ROYAL CHAMPION – 8yo British raider, trained by Karl Burke, who has produced his best form at this trip, including a career best RPR of 123 on his latest start when winning a Group 1 event in Saudi Arabia. He has a bit to find with his main rivals, but has been running consistently of late and is 6 lbs clear of the 4 remaining contenders. He therefore appears to be worth a bet for a top 4 finish.
2.0 pts for a top 4 finish @ 18/25 with Bet 365.
Betting bank now 111.59 pts.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Well, the ‘Jump Finale’ meeting has turned into a damp squib both from a personal betting perspective and as a spectacle for the attendees at the track, due to the numerous late withdrawals caused by the quick ground.
The withdrawal of JONBON spoilt my guaranteed win, resulting in just a return of my stakes, whilst the two Grade 2 and the Grade 1 events were all won by horses that would are really nothing more than high class handicappers, so there is little chance of the form working out next season.
That said, it was heart warming to see the veteran EDWARDSTONE collect his fourth Grade 1 success at the grand old age of twelve.
I may have a couple of bets on the flat over the next few days, plus there a few that I am considering at Punchestown next week, once the final declarations have been made.
Betting bank now 113.59 pts
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have been betting against JONBON all season with varying success and see no reason why that strategy today in the Group 1 Celebration Chase at Sandown.
He faces some fairly stiff opposition today, albeit like him they are really only Grade 2 performers, but that shows how weak this race is when compared with a true Grade 1 contest.
I am not even convinced that JONBON is capable of being placed and both Bet 365 and William Hill appear to agree as they have both significantly boosted his odds for a top 2 finish, which has allowed me to back him with both bookmakers, whilst guaranteeing a profit by laying him on the exchanges, as follows:
2.0 pts with Bet 365 @ 11/10, plus 2.0 pts with William Hill @ Evens returns 8.2 pts
3.85 pts lay with the exchanges returns 8.2 pts after 5% commission
Leaving me with 0,35 pts profit whatever the outcome – not a great return, but it keeps the scoreboard ticking over.
Betting bank now 105.74 pts (with 7.85 pts placed today)
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Having ‘played’ on the exchanges for over a decade now, albeit intermittently and generally only laying runners that I have also backed at boosted odds with the bookmakers to guarantee a profit, I can at least empathise with your predicament.
My advice would be to keep things simple to start with and just try to find horses on Bet 365 when they first put up their odds that appear out of synch with the other bookmakers, then wait until convergence has taken place, prior to visiting the exchange to lay the horse.
This will at least provide useful experience of the speed of the odds movements on the exchanges and shouldn’t generate big losses if things don’t go your way.
Perhaps the next step is to attempt to play a race either using the win, or standard place markets, with just a handful of runners rather than the usual big fields that are seen in Irish Maiden, or Handicap Hurdles.
You will definitely require confidence and the ability to think on your feet – the more runners involved, the greater the risk of making an error and thus taking a sizeable hit to profits.
Finally, good luck with finding an accurate method for calculating top finish prices based on win market odds, as this is something that I have been trying to get to grips with for about 12 months, with no real success, as the top finish odds appear to be determined by a number of factors, including the obvious win odds, number of runners, number of places required and the strength of the opposition, hence there is no standard template that can be applied for an individual race.
Happy to go into further detail if required.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have a feeling that it could turn out to be one of those weekends in which I struggle to find a worthwhile bet, despite having a number of tracker entries due to run over the next few days.
I was expecting to put up MONTREGARD for tomorrow in the Bet 365 Handicap Chase at Sandown after the gelding was a late withdrawal from the Scottish Grand National last Saturday, but his chance of winning this week’s race is only marginally better, yet he is trading at best odds of just 5/1 with just 4 each way places on offer, whilst I was able to secure 10/1 with 6 places last weekend, so no bet.
My other horses of interest all have question marks hanging over them, mainly due to the fact that they will be making their seasonal debuts and/or ground conditions may not be ideal, yet the betting markets do not appear to be taking account of these factors to a sufficient level to enable me to accept the risks.
I will post again on this thread, if I do find a decent investment, but I if not I will be monitoring the weekend results closely to identify further entries for my tracker, as this is the time of year to set the foundations for a hopefully profitable flat season.
Good luck to all readers for their bets over the weekend.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
With only two winning favourites and only one 3yo Group 1 class par performance during the past decade, it often pays to look beyond the obvious when considering potential bets in the 1000 Guineas.
There are currently 24 entries for the race, so here are my thoughts on the 8 candidates that have made my shortlist:
AZLEET (RPR 106) – recorded her best RPR when winning the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7 furlongs at Newmarket last week at 50/1. That was a huge 12 lbs improvement on her juvenile form, but still leaves her at the foot of my shortlist based on RPRs, whilst she may also struggle to see out the additional furlong.
DIAMOND NECKLACE (RPR 110) – remained unbeaten in 3 starts as a juvenile, culminating in victory in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. The form of that race did not appear particularly strong at the time and the subsequent defeat of the second and third home in classic trials in France this month has done nothing to change my opinion. It is also unlikely that Aidan O’Brien will declare all of the first 3 fillies in the betting market for the same race, which suggests that she may be the obvious candidate for the French equivalent.
EVOLUTIONIST (RPR 109) – showed consistent improvement in 4 starts as a 2yo, culminating in a solid third place finish (btn 4 1/4 lengths) behind PRECISE in the Group 1 Fillies Mile over the 1000 Guineas course and distance. She appears to have continued her upward curve by winning the Group 3 Prix de la Grotte over 1 mile at Longchamp on her seasonal debut, for which she was awarded her career best RPR for that effort, which ties in with DIAMOND NECKLACE as the have both beaten NARISSA by just over 2 lengths. She could end up returning to Longchamp for the French equivalent, but she holds fair each way claims if turning up at Newmarket in early May.
MY HIGHNESS (RPR 108) – recorded her best RPR when winning a Group 2 event at Deauville in August on her last start as a 2yo, but didn’t match that effort on her seasonal debut when finishing runner up in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence over 7 furlongs at Longchamp. That said, French training legend, Andre Fabre rarely has his classic contenders fully wound up for their first run, whilst the step up to a mile is sure to suit this filly. Another with each way aspirations if she travels over from France.
PRECISE (RPR 114) – made rapid progress on each of her last 4 starts as a 2yo culminating in victories in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, followed by an even more impressive win in the Group 1 Fillies Mile, for which she was awarded her top RPR. Based on the latter effort she has the beating of EVOLUTIONIST and is the only 2yo filly last year to have achieved a Group 1 class par figure. She holds clear form claims in this race and is the current 9/4 favourite, but suffered a set back a few weeks ago, which is not the ideal preparation for making her seasonal debut.
THE PRETTIEST STAR (RPR 104) – only ran twice as a 2yo winning a Maiden at Nottingham and followed up with a second place finish in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes over 7 furlongs at Newmarket, albeit the third and fourth place finishers have not franked the form in their subsequent starts. I also have concerns that she may struggle to see out the mile, especially on her seasonal debut.
TRUE LOVE (RPR 112) – had a busy 2yo career winning thrice and finishing runner up thrice, with her only poor run coming on her last start over 5 furlongs at the Breeders Cup. Her best RPR was achieved when winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 6 furlongs at Newmarket. She appears to have trained on with a victory in the Group 3 Priory Belle Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown, where she gave the impression that she is likely to stay 1 mile. She may just be underrated by the betting market when compared to her stablemates, PRECISE and DIAMOND NECKLACE.
VENETIAN SUN (RPR 108) – was unbeaten in her first 4 starts over 6 furlongs last year, including a victory in the Group 1, Prix Morny where she beat GSTAAD by a short neck. That form was franked by both the runner up and third home WISE APPROACH, who both went on to win Group 1 events. However this filly was then subsequently beaten 2 1/2 lengths into third place behind PRECISE in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over 7 furlongs at the Curragh. Although she was staying on at the end of that race, her breeding suggests she may lack the stamina for 1 mile, especially on her first start of the season.
With doubts over my two favoured candidates turning up at Newmarket, this is not a race that I wish to get involved in at this stage, but I will closely monitor the Racing Post over the next few days in the hope that the trainers of EVOLUTIONIST and/or MY HIGHNESS confirm their intended targets.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
After the latest set of ‘scratchings’ for the 2000 Guineas, it is now time for me to start my analysis for the first classic of the season.
OK, cards on the table, it appears on paper to be a very moderate renewal as none of the 20 remaining entries were capable of recording a performance that achieved a Group 1 class par RPR during their 2yo careers.
That said, there is a massive elephant shaped void in the entry list, which goes by the name of GSTAAD, who was erroneously withdrawn from the race due to a technical hitch last month, but could still be supplemented at a significant cost at the 6 day stage, albeit his trainer Aidan O’Brien has intimated that the colt may be aimed at the French equivalent.
If GSTAAD is supplemented for the race, his presence will have a significant impact on both my betting strategy and the betting markets, as he achieved the 2yo Group 1 class par RPR of 117 twice, in finishing runner up to the ill fated GERWAN in the Dewhurst Stakes, which he then followed up when winning the Breeders Cup Turf.
In the meantime, I currently have a shortlist of 7 entries for the race, but quite frankly I am struggling to enthuse about any of them, as they all have questions to answer, as follows:
BOW ECHO (RPR 111) – the current 11/4 favourite, but his best performance was achieved in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over the Guineas course and distance, but winners of this race tend not to turn into Group 1 milers, but often prove more suited when stepped up in distances and has yet to run this season, albeit his trainer believes that he will be fit enough to be competitive. Current odds appear to short in light of my concerns and may prove to be a false favourite.
DISTANT STORM (RPR 113) – twice finished behind the ill fated GERWAN, but did finish 3rd in the Dewhurst Stakes, for which the form has worked out well with the fifth horse OXAGON winning the Craven Stakes, whilst the sixth (ALPARSIAN) and fourth (ZAVATERI) finishing first and second in the Greenham stakes. He has yet to race this season, but his trainer Charlie Appleby has been responsible for 3 of the last 4 winners of the 2000 Guineas.
OXAGON (RPR 110) – has proven his fitness by winning the Group 3 Craven Stakes, but his winning RPR was below the class par figure, suggesting that he is an unlikely winner of the 2000 Guineas.
POWER BLUE (RPR 112) – achieved his Group 1 victory in the Phoenix Stakes over 6 furlongs at the Curragh, but subsequently finished runner up to THESECRETADVERSARY in the Group 3 Red Rock Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown earlier this month.
Likely to prove best when returned to sprinting.PUERTO RICO (RPR 116) – finished last season with two Group 1 victories in France over 7 furlongs at Longchamp and 8 furlongs at Saint-Cloud, but on neither occasion did he achieve the Group 1 class par figure. I am always wary of the strength of the Group 1 form from French races for 2yo and prior to these victories he had been beaten by both POWER BLUE and OXAGON. Current best odds of 6/1 seem skinny in light of his CV to date.
THESECRETADVERSAY (RPR 111) – improved significantly on his 2yo form to beat POWER BLUE at Leopardstown recording a career best RPR of 111 in the process. He is likely to appreciate the step up to 1 mile and at current best odds of 40/1 may just be the joker in the pack that outruns his price to reward each way support.
ZAVATERI (RPR 116) – surprise winner of the National Stakes beating GSTAAD by a head for which he was awarded his RPR of 116, but the form was reversed in the Dewhurst in no uncertain terms. He was beaten into second by ALPARSIAN in the Greenham Stakes where he could only muster a disappointing RPR of 106, which suggests that he may have already peaked during his first season.
Overall, I firmly believe that the Dewhurst Stakes form from last season may hold the key to finding the winner of the 2000 Guineas and I was initially keen to back GERWAN prior to his accident. Thereafter, GSTAARD was promoted to the top of my shortlist, but he is unbackable until a final decision is made on his participation in this race.
The other entry that I will be considering once the final field is known is THESECRETADVERSAY, as I believe that he could prove to be the surprise each way contender which regularly bears fruit in this race.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
As promised here are a few more horses that produced performances at Newmarket and Newbury which deserve to be included in my tracker:
RUN TO FREEDOM – 8yo horse who ran his best race for almost 3 years to win the Group 3 Abernant Stakes over 6 furlongs at Newmarket on Thursday. His winning RPR of 117 suggests that he is worth following in similar Group 3 events, plus he may be worth a small each way punt in the Group 1 July Cup as his previous two attempts have resulted in him finishing runner up at 28/1 and third at 40/1.
I’M THE ONE – 3yo filly who spreadeagled her rivals to win a Class 3 Maiden for fillies over 10 furlongs at Newbury on Friday by 6 lengths. She was making her debut in this race and clearly has the potential for significant improvement, as she looked far from the finished article yet recorded an RPR of 92, which suggests that she should prove competitive in a Listed, or Group 3 Oaks Trial next time out.
CONVERGENT – 4yo colt who did not get the best of trips during the race, but still managed to give weight to each of his 5 rivals in the Group 3 John Porter Stakes over 1 mile 4 furlongs at Newbury on Saturday. He was awarded a career best RPR of 121 for this victory, which can probably be upgraded a little in the circumstances and should be capable of acquitting himself with merit in Group 2, or even weak top level events.
STEM – 4yo gelding who could only finish ninth in the ferociously competitive Class 2 Sping Mile Handicap over a mile at Newbury on Saturday. However, the quick ground was never going to play to his strengths, which suggests that he ran well on his seasonal debut and is very well treated off an OR of 89 compared with his career best RPR of 100. He is likely to be seen at his best over a straight mile on ground that is no quicker than G/S.
WATER TO WINE – 3yo colt who was an impressive 4 1/4 lengths winner of the Class 2 Maiden over 1 mile 3 furlongs at Newbury on Saturday. He was making his racecourse debut and is highly likely to improve significantly on the RPR of 94 which he was awarded for this victory, suggesting that he should be worth considering in Listed/Group 3 events in the not too distant future.
Keen eyed readers may have noticed that I have not mentioned any of the Guineas Trials so far, as I intend to cover them off separately in the next day, or so.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
MONTREGARD was a late withdrawal from the Scottish Grand National due to officially heavy ground, so 1.0 pt stake returned, but we may not have long to wait to see whether he is as well handicapped as I think he is, as he entered for the Bet 365 Handicap Chase at Sandown next Saturday, for which he is already on my shortlist for consideration.
As a general rule, I don’t tend to take much notice of performances achieved in flat races below Listed status, however two of the exceptions to this rule are the 3yo non handicap events at the Newmarket Craven meeting and the 2 day meeting at Newbury that directly follows on, in which it is often following winners who are awarded very high RPRs.
Not all the results from Newmarket have as yet been awarded RPRs, so there may be more to follow, but so far I have identified the following additions to my tracker:
TALK OF NEW YORK – 3yo colt who was the comfortable winner of the Class 2 Conditions Stakes over 7 furlongs on Tuesday. He recorded a career best RPR of 105 for that effort, which suggests that he should be worth following in races up to Listed status, or perhaps weak Group 3 events, albeit I doubt that his entry in the 2000 Guineas will reap rewards.
DAMYSUS – 4yo colt who made short work of his rivals to win the Group 3, Earl Of Sefton Stakes over 9 furlongs on Wednesday. He was already in my tracker having won a similar Group 3 over the same course and distance last October, but his latest career best RPR of 123, suggests that he is worth upgrading as based on this evidence he appears to be capable of winning a Grpup 2, or even a weak Group 1 over either a mile, or 10 furlongs.
PORTCULLIS – 3yo colt who was an impressive winner of the Class 2 Wood Ditton Stakes over a mile on Thursday. It is never easy to judge the worth of the winner’s performance in this race as it is restricted to previously unraced runners, but he was awarded a massive debut RPR of 99, which suggests that he should be capable of winning a novice event, or perhaps a weak Listed race in the near future.
MAHO BAY – 3yo colt who ran out the comfortable winner of the Class 2 Novice Stakes over 10 furlongs on Thursday. He was awarded an RPR of 103 for this effort, which was a significant improvement on his admittedly good debut effort (RPR 91) when winning over 11 furlongs at Kempton, all of which suggests that he will not be out of place in a Listed/Group 3 Derby Trial next month.
That’s all for now, but I will provide my thoughts regarding any further additions to the tracker from either Newmarket, or Newbury once the RPRs have been awarded.
Betting bank now 113.59 pts
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
ADVERTISED certainly ran a big race, to finish runner up at an SP of 12/1, despite becoming a little unbalanced when encountering the dip, to provide a return of 2.32 pts.
He certainly looks capable of further improvement, but I guess it depends on how the handicapper reacts as to whether he will be one to follow in the short term and I would be wary of backing him again on either course at Newmarket, without evidence that he can negotiate the dip.
Moving on, I was not surprised to hear yesterday that CONSTITUTION HILL would not be declared for the John Porter Stakes at Newbury, due to the likelihood of quick ground. However it does raise the question of how he will be campaigned during the season, if he is to only run on slow turf, in which case a dry spring and summer are likely to scupper any plans for him to take in the Ebor Handicap at York in August, followed by a stab at the Melbourne Cup.
I mention these two races as he is close to the top of the antepost list for both events and I worry that fans of CONSTITUTION HILL will be backing him over the next few months, only to find that they don’t get a run for their money.
If the early antepost market for the John Porter has taught us anything, it is that the bookmakers will not be taking any chances and are therefore likely to offer him at ridiculously short odds, whilst pricing up the other entries as if CONSTITUTION HILL is not involved in the race, as seen when news of his non participation resulted in only marginal changes to the odds of the remaking candidates on Wednesday.
My advice for punters when considering a bet in a race in which CONSTITUTION HILL has been entered is a follows:
1. Do not back any horse antepost, as better odds are likely to be available on the day of the race, when the massive additional overround has been removed by market forces.
2. Do not contemplate backing CONSTITUTION HILL until bookmakers have issued their odds boosts for the day, as he is likely to be the subject of plenty of offers, which may just turn out to offer value.
3. If CONSTITUTION HILL is sent on his travels for a race outside of the U.K. and Ireland, if possible back him on the local pari mutual (Tote) as overseas punters are very likely to less influenced by the hype surrounding him.By following these simple rules, we should at least be able to minimise the risk of suffering unnecessary losses.
The final declarations for the Scottish Grand National were published earlier today, at which time my initial reaction was that it will be a weak renewal based on the fact that the top weight runs off an OR of just 145.
That said there are a number of apparently well handicapped novice chasers in the field, so it could prove to be very competitive and may just produce a candidate or two for next year’s top staying handicap chases.
Possible the best handicapped horse in the field is MONTREGARD, who was added to my tracker when winning his latest race at Ascot back in February. Despite only a 7yo, he’s is a second season chaser who has won 4 of his 10 starts over fences and appears well treated off his current OR of 132, compared with his latest career best RPR of 142. Although he is yet to race over further than 3 miles, he has generally been full of running at the finishing line, whilst his Dosage Index figure of 0.54 suggests that he has sound claims of staying 4 miles.
0.50 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places) at 10/1 (current joint best odds, but others only offering 5 places max) with Boylesport
Betting bank now 112.59 (with 1.0 pt of bets for Saturday).
All the best,
Rob.
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