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RobmullParticipantHi folks,
“a couple of lengths will suffice” – I honestly don’t have a crystal ball, but somehow managed to predict CONSTITUTION HILL’s exact winning margin.
The tactics employed by Ryan Moore, were exemplary as the gelding’s connections would have gleaned far more from his performance, than they would had he turned the race into a procession, whilst also doing their best to ensure that his initial handicap is realistic.
The biggest takeout from last night’s race in my opinion is that he can quicken off a moderate pace, which should prove a useful attribute when he tackles group races which can often develop into tactical affairs.
He has just been awarded an RPR of 90 for his latest win, which is 13 lbs lower than he achieved on his flat race debut at Southwell, which makes me even more sceptical that his initial rating is erroneous and should have been around 93/94, but in reality hiis RPRs are an irrelevance at this stage, as the main question is how much improvement can he find over the season?
Nicky Henderson has suggested that his next race will be in the Group 3 John Porter Stakes over 1 1/2 miles on 17 April, for which the average winning RPR over the past decade is a shade over 114, which is quite a hike on what he has achieved so far. That said, I believe that it may provide him with his best opportunity to score at Group level, as he will probably hold a race fitness edge over most, if not all of his rivals, plus he will have no issues with slow turf.
For me the other important point to take from the last couple of days is that a huge number of racing fans that want to feel that they have a stake in his future, which is likely to generate massive profits for the Bookmakers.
Many punters will be keen to back CONSTITUTION HILL in his future races, which gives the bookmakers carte blanche to offer unrealistically short odds on him, both in the standard betting markets and with their bonus offers.
Some of the offers I have seen today, include:
To win a Group race @ 4/5 – anyone interested should have taken the evens that I was offering yesterday.
To win a Group 1 race @ 8/1 – was 10/1 yesterday and would probably require him to run to an RPR of at least 124 which is 34 lbs higher than his latest figure.
To win the Ebor @ 12/1 – connections have suggested that he not likely to be risked on fast summer ground and are keen to keep him to 12 furlongs
To win the Ascot Gold Cup @ 20/1 – see above
To win the Melbourne Cup @ 20/1 – perhaps a more likely target over 2 miles, as it is often won by runners who have shown their best form over 1 1/2 miles, but the stringent health checks that must be passed may prove beyond a horse who will be approaching his 10th birthday.
About the only thing the bookmakers are not offering a price on is for CONSTITUTION HILL to become the next British Prime Minister, which quite frankly he probably has a better chance of achieving than winning any of the 3 named races in the above list!!
By all means play if you are feeling brave, but I will not be getting involved.
For the record, I hope he enjoys a successful career on the flat, but will always be seeking the value that should be available elsewhere when his odds are unrealistically short.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
To be honest, I was initially thinking of backing ROADLESSTRAVELLED for a top 3 finish, but in all likelihood it would have been a case of betting that he finished third and in that respect there is little to choose between him and SERVICEMAN in the betting, suggesting that the later is likely to show some improvement.
Perhaps I am being over cautious?
As for your suggested bet builders, my record with these bets is so poor, that I never even consider them as an option, but if forced at gunpoint, I would probably choose the latter option for small stakes, as 10/1 probably offers a bit of value when compared with the 9/2 on offer with Bet 365 for the same selections in correct order.
Best of luck if you do play.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have just placed another NRNB bet on the Grand National with Bet 365, as follows:
0.5 pts each way on OSCARS BROTHER (1/5 odds for 5 places) @ 25/1, which appears to offer some value as his odds with the other major bookmakers range from 18/1 to a paltry 12/1.
I can’t miss this opportunity to have my say in respect of the pre race build up for Chapter 2 of the CONSTITUTION HILL saga which will take place at 7.30 this evening on the all weather at Kempton.
I have rated his chance of winning at around 75%, or in terms of bookmaker odds 1/3, but he is currently best priced at 1/5, which suggests that there should be value elsewhere amongst the 8 runner field.
However, the next two runners in the market CLASSICAL ALLUSION and SERVICEMAN, who both have the potential to improve, are making their seasonal debuts, so it is difficult to know what to expect, whilst the only other runner with realistic claims is ROADLESSTRAVELLED finished 15 1/2 lengths behind CONSTITUTION HILL when they met at Southwell and has since recorded exactly the same RPR of 80 on his subsequent start, suggesting that he is unlikely to significantly improve this time around.
Many bookmakers are offering odds boosts for CONSTITUTION HILL to win by at least 3, 4 or 5 lengths some of which at first sight appear tempting.
On paper, this race appears weaker than the Southwell event which he won by over 9 lengths, as based on adjusted RPRs the favourite has a massive 20 lbs in hand of his nearest rival, which equates to around 13 lengths superiority. That said, punters are in the dark as to how much improvement will be forthcoming from CLASSICAL ALLUSION and SERVICEMAN, but even if one or both take a significant step forward, there is still likely to be a fair margin of safety against the minimum 3 length requirement.
Surely the Super Boost from Bet 365 for him to win by at least 3 lengths at 6/4 is a good bet?
Perhaps it is, but as I mentioned in a previous post, the RPR he was awarded for his victory of 103 appear suspect based on his winning margin over the placed horses, which in my opinion should have produced a figure of either 93 or 94. If my suspicion improves correct his superior this race is reduced to 11 lbs at best, or around 7 lengths.
It is also worth considering the circumstances around CONSTITUTION HILL’s second flat race, as he will automatically be given a handicap rating after the race having won on his debut and whilst his connections have suggested that they intend to campaign him in Group races, if he struggles at that level, they are likely to drop him into handicaps, in which case they probably won’t wish his margin of victory to be too great, in an attempt to keep his initial handicap mark to a reasonable level.
Perhaps the pre race instructions for Ryan Moore will be something along the following lines – “make sure he wins, but don’t make it look too easy, a couple of lengths will suffice”?
I will leave readers to decide!!
Betting Bank now 109.01 Pts (with 4.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
All the best,
Rob.
PS – just noticed that William Hill are offering Evens that CONSTITUTION HILL will win a Group 1,2 or 3 race during the 2026 flat racing season.
To make life interesting, I am prepared to offer a better deal for the first reader who responds on this thread by 7.30 pm this season, as I am prepared to bet that he will not win a Group race during the season, at evens for a maximum stake of £10, and will throw in a margin of safety by making the bet void if his highest level victory is a Listed race.
Any takers?
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have nothing of interest to report in respect of the results from last weekend’s National Hunt action, which was unsurprisingly moderate, being the week after the Cheltenham Festival.
However, there was one performance on the flat at Rosehill, Australia that is more than worthy of a mention.
AUTUMN GOLD – this 4yo filly retained her perfect record with her eleventh straight success in the George Ryder Stakes over 7 1/2 furlongs, for which she was awarded her career best RPR of 125. This was her third group 1 victory, albeit the first was achieved in a handicap, all of which suggests that she is a true top level performer and is likely to prove difficult to beat in her native Australia going forward. She has remained in my tracker since she recorded a Group 2 victory at Randwick (RPR 114) back on 21 September 2024, since when she has won 8 races, albeit Profits’s have been moderate as she has been odds on every time.
I will also take this opportunity to introduce 6 flat race entries in my tracker that are scheduled to race at Meydan on Saturday, which I hope will assist readers to understand how I identify betting opportunities from amongst the horses that have previously achieved class par performances.
PYROMANCER – is scheduled to run in the Group 2 UAE Derby for which he is currently favourite at best odds of 11/4. He was added to my tracker when recording a career best RPR of 112 for winning a Listed race for 2 year olds at Kawasaki in Japan. Based on that figure, he appears to be 7 lbs clear of his nearest rival in the UAE Derby, however his Listed win was achieved on turf, whereas this race will be run on dirt. The change of racing surface may not be an issue, as he has twice won on dirt in Japan, but my further analysis of his performances on dirt have produced a best guess RPR of 104, suggesting that he has nothing in hand of the second favourite , who has won each of his last 3 races at this track. PYROMANCER may become the fifth consecutive Japanese trained winner of this race, but he will do so without the burden of my money.
MONTIELE – this 5yo mare has been declared for the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint over 6 furlongs on turf. She qualified for my tracker last September when winning a Group 3 event over 5 furlongs at Longchamp, in which she recorded a career best RPR of 116, which suggests that she should continue to perform well in Group 3, or Listed events. Furthermore, whilst she has in the past won over longer distances, her recent best form has been achieved over the minimum trip. She has subsequently finished unplaced in a Group 1 over 5 furlongs and a Group 3 over 6 furlongs, which suggests that she is an unlikely winner of this event and her true odds of doing so are probably greater than the 33/1 that is currently on offer.
OMBUDSMAN – this 5yo horse is scheduled to race in the Group 1 Dubai Turf over 9 furlongs. He has been a permanent fixture on my tracker since winning a 3yo Listed event at Deauville back in August 2024 for which he was awarded a then career best RPR of 114 and has subsequently won 3 of his 6 starts for a good profit. Based on pre race RPRs he holds a 10 lbs superiority over his nearest rival for this race and is rightly odds on (current best price 8/13), but I will swerve backing him this time, as he will be making his seasonal debut and 2 of his 3 defeats have occurred when returning to the track off breaks of at least 50 days, so he is not worth risking at cramped odds.
CALANDAGAN – this 5 yo gelding is due to participate in the Dubai Sheema Classic over 12 furlongs on turf. He joined my tracker when recording an RPR of 127 for his victory in the Group 1 King George at Ascot in July last year and has remained unbeaten since with a further 2 Group 1 successes, including the ferociously competitive Japan Cup. He represents a similar proposition to OMBUDSMAN, as he holds a 9 lbs advantage over his nearest rivals, but will be making his seasonal debut and has recorded just 2 victories from 8 starts off breaks of 50 days or longer, whereas his record when running within 7 weeks of his previous race is a perfect 6 wins from 6 starts. At his current best odds of 2/5, he is an unappealing investment.
The final two entries in my tracker are both scheduled to run in the Dubai World Cup over 10 furlongs on dirt.
FOREVER YOUNG – 5yo Japanese trained horse who has won 10 of his 13 starts and has been a permanent entry in my tracker since February 2024. He has developed into a true globetrotting champion, having raced 8 times outside of his native Japan and he comes here on a roll having won both the Breeders Cup at Del Mar and lucrative Saudi Cup at Riyadh (second victory) on his last 2 starts. His career best RPR of 128 gives him a 7 lbs advantage over his nearest challenger in this race, for which he is a worthy favourite at current best odds of 8/13. He will probably make amends for only finishing third in this race last year, but for me his odds are too short, just in case he blows out again.
HIT SHOW – 6yo US based gelding who is no world beater based on his career best RPR of just 121, but has a tendency to produce very strong figures below Group 2 level, which means that he has been on my tracker since February 2023, albeit with the proviso that he is only of interest in Group 3 or Listed races, unless the opposition is particularly weak, hence I missed him when he rocked up for this race last year and took advantage of FOREVER YOUNG’s failure to win a 66/1. This time around, he has very little chance of retaining his crown, if the favourite runs to form, but is still the second highest rated runner in the race based on RPRs and yet he is on offer at 14/1. He is the one runner that I intend to back at Meydan, but I shall hold off for now, as I want to know his stall position and his odds in the top position market.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
With the start on the U.K. turf flat racing season imminent, I need to make some changes to the way that I post my thoughts on the recent results of the top races.
To explain, I tend to cast my net wide when seeking value bets on the flat, to include not only European flat action, but also worldwide top quality races in jurisdictions that are covered by race cards and results in the Racing Post.
This results in a huge increase in race volumes, for which it would be virtually impossible to post my thoughts for each race and still have a life away from horse racing.
My plan is to only document thoughts on races where at least one of the participants has been added to my tracker, based on the RPR achieved when compared with the class par for the grade of race.
I am sure most readers will already be conversant with class pars, but for the uninitiated it is probably worth explaining what they are and how I will be using them.
Using RPRs as the basic measurement of performance for each race participant, the class pars for each race is basically the figure that would normally be expected to be achieved by the winner of a race of that grade.
For example, the Doncaster Mile, is a Listed event which is scheduled to be run on Saturday for which the class par is 117 (112 for fillies and mares, as they receive a 5 lbs sex allowance), hence any runner who records an RPR equal to greater than the class par can be considered a worthy performer a Listed race and may be capable of winning at Group event in the future, so is worth adding to my tracker.
During the past decade only two winners have recorded RPRs equal to, or greater than the class par of 117, namely CHARYN (117) in 2024 and DANCING GEMINI (118) in 2025, both of whom went on to win weak renewals of the Group 2 Mile at Sandown on their next start at odds of 9/4 and 5/2 respectively.
Whilst I would not recommend that readers should follow the class par qualifiers blindly, they are definitely worth considering when race conditions are favourable.
Going forward, I shall be using class pars when undertaking post race analysis for both Flat and National Hunt events, which should reduce the time spent documenting my thoughts and provide readers with more concise updates.
If anyone has any questions, then please let me know.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I have always admired your “go for the big one” attitude to betting, but it never works for me, so I suspect that I will be taking a more circumspect approach to the race.
Whilst writing, I see that the second chapter of the CONSTITUTION HILL flat racing campaign is likely to take place at Kempton on Wednesday evening, which will hopefully provide some interesting betting opportunities, prior to my attention being drawn towards the Dubai World Cup (if it goes ahead) and the Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting on Saturday.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Now that I have completed my Cheltenham Festival review, I will turn my attention to the Grand National.
Previously on this thread, I posted the trends that I would be using to produce my shortlist of entries for further consideration, which worked reasonably well as the reduced the current 69 entries down to just 15.
However, even a shortlist of 15 is a little unwieldy, so with the assistance of some further judicial pruning, I have whittled the possible runners of interest down to the following 7 candidates, which I will cover in race card order:
GRANGECARE WEST – finished third behind stablemate NICK ROCKET last year, so clearly has no issues with either the track, or race distance. He was victorious in the Bobbyjo Chase last time out, which has supplied the last 2 winners, however no 10yo has been successful in this race during the past decade, whilst previously placed runners rarely win, so probably best to limit support to including him in exotic bets.
HAITI COULEURS – has in the last 12 months won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, Irish Grand National and Welsh Grand National, which suggests that he has strong claims of staying the distance. He was to be my main selection for this race prior to being pulled up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where he reportedly ran flat due to the quick underfoot conditions. Perhaps one to back on the day, if the race is run on slow ground.
SPILLAINE’S TOWER – has won over 3 miles 1 1/2 furlongs, but has to prove his stamina for marathon trips, albeit his Dosage figures suggest that he has fair claims of doing so. I backed him each way earlier this week with Bet 365 (see post QUALITY RACING 2026 as they were offering standout odds of 33/1, whereas he was generally a 20/1 shot and has since been mentioned as a possible big money purchase for J P Mc Manus.
OSCARS BROTHER – was seen staying on well over 3 miles 1 furlong to finish fourth in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham , but has yet to attempt further, albeit his Dosage figures offer promise. He also has an entry in the Irish Grand National, and a Grade 1 novice chase at Fairyhouse so is not a guaranteed runner at this stage and may just lack the experience to be tackling this race at this stage in his career.
JAGWAR – recorded his career best RPR of 162 when finishing runner up in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. His first attempt at 3 miles 1 furlong. Untested over further, but is another candidate who has positive Dosage figures. Based on the fact that he can participate off an OR of 152, he is probably the best handicapped entry and many astute pundits believe that he is likely to improve the further he goes, hence my each way invest ment with Bet 365 earlier this week.
JORDANS – was highlighted on this thread as a well handicapped chaser back in January, but has shown little in 2 subsequent races, so has plenty to prove, especially has he yet to race over further than 3 miles 1 furlong, but again his Dosage figures are positive. Also has an entry in the Irish Grand National in which he is even better handicapped off his latest OR of 147 against a career best RPR of 158. Possibly worth a small investment on the day of the race, if the ground is on the quick side.
FINAL ORDERS – has won two cross country handicap chases at Cheltenham this season, including at last week’s festival, where he recorded a career best RPR of 157. Cross country chase form often works out well in this race (see CAUSE OF CAUSES and TIGER ROLL), so if this gelding can transfer his form to the National Course, he is likely to be well handicapped off an OR of 147. However, he has also been entered for the Irish Grand National in which he can race off an OR of just 138, which may tempt his connections to run him at Fairyhouse, albeit at the age of 10, he is an unlikely winner in either race based on recent age trends.
I have no additional ante post bets for the Grand National at this stage, but at least I know the entries that I will be focussing on come the day of the race.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
My thoughts on the graded action at the final day of the Cheltenham Festival, are as follows:
The first race of the day was the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle for 4yos over 2 miles 1 furlongs, which in my opinion is rapidly deteriorating into a farce, with the last 2 winners, who were virtually impossible to find, due to lack of meaningful form, being sent off at SPs of 100/1 and 50/1.
APOLON DE CHARNIE – had finished runner up on his only previous start over hurdles in France, where he finished 6 lengths behind PROACTIF, yet he finished 13 lengths ahead of that rival this time. His winning RPR of 138 is 7 lbs below the previous worst winning figure (allowing for the 7lbs fillies allowance), which was recorded by his previously unraced stablemate POINROS, who has since failed to win in 4 attempts over hurdles. Until proven otherwise, I shall treating the form from this race with the utmost caution.
The next race of interest was the Grade 2 Mares Chase over 2 miles 4 1/2 furlongs.
DINOBLUE – fully justified her position at the head of the betting market, to record back to back victories, finishing 1 3/4 lengths ahead of the runner up ONLY BY NIGHT. Her winning RPR of 163, was the same as she achieved last year and it is now over 2 years since she has tasted defeat in Mares only chases, but she is now 9 years old, so it is unlikely that she will remain in training for much longer. In the meantime, she is worth including in my tracker as a solid Grade 2 performer, who may be capable of winning a very weak open Grade 1 event – based on RPRs she would have dead heated with HEART WOOD, if she had run in the Ryanair Chase.
ONLY BY NIGHT: also deserves to be included in the tracker, as she was awarded a career best RPR of 160 for this effort, again suggesting that she should be competitive at Grade 2 level, albeit she probably needs to steer clear of DINOBLUE in the short term.
The following race was the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle over 3 miles, which regularly produces an unexpected result.
JOHNNY’S JURY: was this year’s surprise winner, maintaining his unbeaten record over hurdles this season, albeit his 2 previous successes were in class 4 events over roughly 2 miles, which gave punters very little indication that he was capable of winning this Grade 1 staying event for novices. His winning RPR of 146 is 5 lbs below the previous lowest figure during the past decade, which suggests that the form of this race is nothing to get excited about, albeit I suspect that some decent novice chasers will emerge from this event in the future.
The next race is undoubtedly the highlight of the festival, namely the Cheltenham Gold Cup over 3 miles 2 1/2 furlongs.
GAELIC WARRIOR – produced the best performance of the week to win by 8 lengths, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 182. This figure has only been bettered twice during the past decade, by GALOPIN DES CHAMPS who recorded back to back ratings of 183. GAELIC WARRIOR clearly deserves an entry in my tracker, as he is probably the best chaser around, albeit he has shown a tendency in the past to be a little quirky and past performances suggest that he finds Kempton too tight, so he is probably worth opposing in the King George and has yet to win in 4 attempts over fences at Leopardstown.
The other horse I wish to mention from this race is last year’s winner INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, who has shown nothing this year and was not pleasing on the eye for most of the contest, but somehow managed to finish third (RPR 174). To my mind his past record over fences offers an interesting conundrum, as to whether he is just a Cheltenham specialist (2 wins plus this third place finish from 3 attempts at the Festival), or is he very much a Spring horse (his only other Chase victory was at the Aintree Grand National Festival on his only other start between March and the end of the season). He may well be worth considering if turning up at either Aintree, or Punchestown in the next few weeks.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Some readers may feel that my Cheltenham Festival reviews so far have been rather negative, if so I suggest that you take something to calm your nerves, as this post is a true horror story – YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!!
Thursday’s action started with the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices Hurdle over 2 miles and 1 furlong.
WHITE NOISE – was the surprise winner at an SP of 40/1, bringing her record over hurdles to 4 victories from 6 attempts. She was awarded a career best RPR of 133 for this effort, which is the lowest winning figure during the past decade, again suggesting that this year’s novice hurdle intake are a very moderate bunch.
The next race of interest was the Grade 1 Mares Hurdle over 2 miles 4 1/2 furlongs.
WADHOOH – justified odds on favouritism to notch her 10th win from just 11 starts over hurdles, albeit she only had a length to spare at the line over JADE DE GRUGY, who was also runner up in this race last season. The winner was awarded a joint career best RPR of 153, which has only been bettered by both LOSSIEMOUTH (156 twice) and HONEYSUCKLE (157 twice), That said, this year’s winner appears to have reached her peak level, based on RPRs having only improved her rating by 2 lbs during the past 12 months. The evidence suggests that she is probably capable of being very competitive in Grade 2, but is likely to struggle at the top level, unless she can be found opportunities in very weak Grade 1 events.
It seems an age ago since there has been a true Grade 1 performance in the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle and unfortunately the wait goes on.
HOME BY THE LEE – this admirable 11yo was the surprise winner at 33/1 on his fifth attempt to win the race. To be honest the career best RPR of 164 he was awarded for this victory was very much in line with previous winners of this race over the past decade, which just shows how weak the long distance hurdle division has become. He is likely to run next in the equivalent race at the Punchestown Festival and is likely to run well, but he would not be a confident selection as these graded long distance hurdles have become a lottery, with each of the top candidates seemingly taking it in turn to triumph.
The final graded race of the day, was the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase over 2 miles 4 1/2 furlongs, which looked as if it would be a simple task for FACT TO FILE to retain his crown, but his was a late withdrawal due to the quick ground, which left us with a decidedly sub standard field.
HEART WOOD – finished runner up last year, beaten an easy 9 lengths by FACT TO FILE, but gained compensation this time finishing 10 lengths clear of JONBON. The winner recorded a career best RPR of 170, which is the joint second lowest figure during the past decade, which suggests that he is a solid Grade 2 horse who got lucky this time.
As for JONBON, I was amazed that he was made favourite for this race in the absence of FACT TO FILE, bearing in mind his previous moderate performances at Cheltenham and I would suggest that at 10 years old, there are very few options open to him, especially as his performances are gradually deteriorating.
Now for the one bright spot on the day!!
With all the excitement of the Cheltenham Festival, I suspect that some reader may have missed the Grade 3, Mares Novice Hurdle over 2 miles 7 furlongs at Limerick, which has produced a runner for my tracker.
ZANOOSH – has been progressing nicely all season and was stepped up in both grade and distance to win her fourth consecutive race over hurdles. She was awarded a career best RPR of 138 for this victory, which suggests that she should remain competitive in similar races below Grade 1, albeit she does appear to appreciate slow ground.
As an aside, it is worth noting the her RPR of 138 was 5 lbs higher than that achieved by WHITE NOISE in the Grade 2 at Cheltenham.
I shall return tomorrow with my thoughts on the final day of the festival, which I promise will include a few positive comments.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
After that brief interlude, I am back reviewing the festival graded action for Wednesday.
The Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Hurdle over 2 miles and 5 furlongs was the first race of the day, but with 21 runners lining up I felt that the it was unlikely to produce any top quality performances, which proved to be true.
KING RASKO GREY – recorded his second victory from three starts over hurdles, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 147. However, this figure is fully 8 lbs below the previous lowest winning rating achieved during the past decade, which suggests that the form of this renewal is very weak. The winner will certainly need to make massive improvement if he is to be competitive in Grade 1 open races next season.
Next up was the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices Chase over 3 miles and 1 furlong.
KITZBUHEL – maintained his unbeaten record over fences when completing to beat his stablemate FINAL DEMAND by 2 3/4 lengths, for which he was handed a career best RPR of 160. However, that figure is the joint worst winning rating during the past decade, only matched by last year’s winner, LECKIE WATSON, who has failed to trouble the judges in five subsequent starts, which again suggest that the form of this race is relatively weak.
The main attraction on Wednesday was the Grade 1 Champoin Chase over 2 miles, in which the odds on favourite MAJBOROUGH finished a well beaten seventh, after his trait for jumping poorly resurfaced.
IL ETAIT TEMPS – picked up the pieces in grand style to win by 10 lengths and in doing so recorded his eighth victory over fence from just eleven attempts. Although he was only awarded an RPR of 172 for this win, it does represent his best effort from 3 attempts at Cheltenham, albeit he does appear to prefer Sandown, where he has 2 emphatic victories in Grade 1 chases with career best RPRs of 175 and 176. He remains in my tracker and will be of interest if attempting to win a second consecutive Celebration Chase at his favourite track at the end of April.
The final Grade 1 on Wednesday was the Champion Bumper National Hunt Flat Race.
THE MOURNE RAMBLER – was one of the stronger candidates for this race and duly obliged by 2 3/4 lengths, recording a career best RPR of 132. However, his winning figure is the joint second lowest during the past decade, suggesting that the bare form is only moderate, albeit I strongly suspect that like previous years many of the participants will go on to win over both hurdles and fences.
I will return with my thoughts on Thursday’s action tomorrow.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I intend to preview the Grand National after completing my review of the Cheltenham Festival, but having looked at the odds comparison I have noticed that Bet 365 have gone NRNB on the race and there is a danger that a couple of my selections are likely to shorten, so I have backed them each way this evening.
JAGWAR – 1 pt each way (1/4 odds for 5 places) @ 12/1
SPILLANE’S TOWER – 0.5 pts each way (1/4 odds for 5 places) @ 33/1 – generally 20/1 elsewhere.
I will share my full shortlist and reasoning for my selections later this week.
Betting bank now 110.01 (with 3.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
It is time to review the graded race action from last week’s Cheltenham Festival, starting with the results on Tuesday.
OLD STAR PARK – got favourite backers off to a flying start when maintaining his unbeaten record over hurdles in the Grade 1, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle over 2 miles 1/2 furlongs. That said, he got the better of a barging match with the runner up, SOBER GLORY, which in turn resulted in the third home MYDADDYPADDY being impeded, so it was not all plain sailing. The winner was awarded a career best RPR of 156, which is the joint second lowest figure during the past decade, suggesting that the 2 mile novice hurdle division may be lacking in overall quality this year. With both the winner and runner up likely to be rested for the remainder of the season, prior to being campaigned over fences, there is a fair chance that the remains Grade 1 novice hurdles turning into a lottery, resulting in some strange results.
The following Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase over 2 miles, was probably the strongest race of the festival, with the first 3 home worthy of mention and entries in my tracker.
KARGESE – made virtually all the running to win for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 159, after taking into account the 7 lbs mares’ allowance. Whether she would have won had her stablemate KOPEK DES BORDES not pecked on landing, thus loosing ground at the last fence is open to debate, however her performance here suggests that she should prove highly competitive in both Mares’s chases and against the males, where she will receive 7 lbs.
KOPEK DES BORDES – finished runner up on only his second start over fences, recording a career best RPR of 167, suggesting that he also has a fine future at the highest level in chases at around the minimum distance. However, his jumping was rather sketchy, which hopefully will improve as he gains experience, otherwise Willie Mullins may end up with another MAJBOROUGH on his hands.
LULAMBA – could only finish third for an RPR of 166, which equalled his last time out career best figure, but was struggling to keep up with the front two for most of the race, suggesting that he needs further and is likely to be stepped up to around 2 1/2 miles in the near future.
The final Grade 1 of the day was the Champion Hurdle, in which the result was rarely in doubt.
LOSSIEMOUTH – was finally given her chance to run in this race and duly maintained her unbeaten record at the Cheltenham Festival with a 6 1/2 length victory, for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 163, which equates to a figure of 170 after accounting for the 7 lbs Mares’s allowance. Based on adjusted RPRs, her performance has only been bettered by CONSTITUTION HILL (177) and the ill fated ESPOIR D’ALLEN (171) during the past decade, which suggests that she will have strong claims of defending her newly won crown next year, albeit I still believe that she may actually be better over 2 1/2 miles.
The runner up BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (RPR 155) has now failed in each of her 3 attempts at Cheltenham and is undoubtedly better away from this track, whilst the third home THE NEW LION (RPR 162) who was staying on a the finished clearly needs to step up in trip.
The final addition to my tracker ran in the Grade 2 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase.
HOLLOWAY QUEEN – recorded a 5 1/2 length victory in this marathon chase for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 151. Her victory was very much a case of a missed betting opportunity for me as I already had her marked in the tracker as a well handicapped mare, but with the caveat that she required slow ground, so she went unbacked. I clearly got it wrong, as her win on Good to Soft actually suggests that what she needs is a test of stamina, but hopefully she will be worth following in the future in graded events at shorter distance around 3 miles when the mud is flying, or in marathon handicaps, depending on how well she is treated by the handicapper. She could prove to be an exciting prospect, as last year’s winner of this race was HAITI COULEURS who has since recorded some fine victories in the Irish and Welsh Grand Nationals, was only given an RPR of 147 for his win at the festival.
I shall return tomorrow with my thoughts on the second day of the festival.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Although my selections failed to produce a profit today, I did manage to pick up a couple of returns.
KARBAU ran fairly well finishing sixth in the County Hurdle – no return
DINOBLUE won the Mares’ Chase to complete the place portion of the each way double with OUTSCHOOL OUTLAW – return 2.06 pts
HAITI COULEURS was pulled up in the Gold Cup and would probably have preferred slower ground – no return
KEL HISTORIE – finished fourth in the Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle – return 2.25 pts
Making a grand total of 4.31 pts return on 6.0 pts outlay, so not a disaster and topping up the profit for the week to just over 20 pts.
Betting bank now 113.01 pts
I hope readers have enjoyed a profitable Cheltenham Festival and found my thoughts and selections of interest.
I am visiting family over the weekend, but will be back early next week to review the festival results and hopefully find a few horses for my tracker.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Sorry, didn’t see your earlier post which must have sneaked in whilst I was composing my latest update.
I am very pleased with the progress made over the first 3 days of the festival which has seen the net betting bank balance moving from 92.82 pts to 114.70 pts, so almost a 22 pt profit, with just 6 pts of bets to be accounted for tomorrow.
Hopefully, my selections on Friday will produce some returns, but not a major issue if they all fail, as I would have happily taken a profit of 16 points at the start of the festival.
All the best,
Rob.
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