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RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Your continued attempts to try and beat the bookies with bet builders reminds me of Don Quixote tilting at windmills.
Good luck with your selections today.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Folks,
I doubt too many readers are particularly interested in the Group races held at Sha Tin racecourse in Hong Kong, but it does occasionally produce some value bets, especially in events when their champion sprinter KA YING RISING is in the field.
He is virtually unbeatable, having won 19 of his 21 starts, including his last 18 races, so there is little point in backing him at 1/20, but it is often worth backing his nearest market rivals either each way just for the place return at inflated odds, or in this case in the top finish market.
HELIOS EXPRESS is clear second best on adjusted RPRs and has finished runner up to KA YING RISING on his last two starts, so is worth backing for a top 3 finish.
1.0 pt for a top 3 finish @ 9/10 with Bet 365
Betting bank now 104.95 pts (with 7.00 pts of antepost bets booked)
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantJust noticed that KALLA CONTI has been declared a non runner at Fairyhouse today, so have just backed her for the Manefeso Novice Chase at Aintree on Thursday.
0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 3 places) @ 25/1 with Boylesport (has been cut by a number of major bookmakers with William Hill just 12/1).
Betting bank now 105.95 pts (with 7.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
No selections today for the 4 graded races at Fairyhouse today, as after completing my usual shortlisting process, I have ended up with the majority of the final fields in each race still in contention, which suggests that the races are likely to be highly competitive.
In addition, there is not a single runner who has achieved a class par RPR for the grade of race in which the are competing, suggesting that the fields are fairly moderate, which often means that the final results are almost impossible to predict in advance.
However, it is worth noting from past results that any runner who achieves a class par RPR in any of the 4 graded races that are being run today are worth following in their next 3 starts. There have only been 7 qualifiers over 40 renewals in the past decade, so it should be worth checking the RPRs allocated to the winners and adding their names to the tracker.
I have also added a horse to my tracker who was a non runner at Fairyhouse yesterday, namely:
PUTAPOUNDINTHEJAR – this 6yo gelding is trained by A J (Tony) Martin and was successful in a handicap hurdle (RPR 127) at the Punchestown festival last year, when ridden by Sean Bowen. He has finished unplaced in 8 subsequent starts (4 on the flat and 4 over hurdles) but did record a career best RPR or 130 at Cheltenham when ridden again by Sean Bowen to finish sixth in the Grade 3 Greatwood Handicap Hurdle. He will be of interest if running at the upcoming Punchestown festival with Sean Bowen in the saddle, albeit he was withdrawn at Fairyhouse yesterday due to coughing, so may not be ready to race at the end of this month.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
No luck with the each way double at Newcastle yesterday, despite both CHANCELLOR (fifth) and GAUCHER (second) both being backed down to 3/1 for their respective races. It was a shame that CHANCELLOR couldn’t hang on to fourth place, as at least I would have collected on the place position of the bet.
Still it could have been worse, as I held off backing FAIYUM at 6/4 for the Group 3 at the Curragh on her seasonal debut where she was sent off 5/6 favourite, but could only finish third. On this evidence, she clearly needs to step up in trip to around 10 furlongs, so is worth retaining in my tracker.
Whilst reviewing last weekend’s results at Doncaster, I noticed that TRIBAL CHIEF (RPR 99) put in an excellent performance to finish third in the Lincoln from stall 21, in a race in which the remaining top 5 finishers were drawn in the lowest 5 stalls. He appears reasonably treated off his current OR of 93 when compared with his career best RPR of 101 and whilst he has yet to win in Class 2 handicaps, he has now been placed twice from 6 attempts, so may be worth considering in 1 mile handicaps worth less that £30k, especially when racing around a bend as only 1 of his 5 victories have been achieved on straight tracks.
I have therefore added TRIBAL CHIEF to my tracker.
Finally, I have no bets for today, but have gone in early with a selection in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Monday.
BETTER TIME AHEAD – this 9yo gelding is the only runner left from my initial shortlist of 5 entries and is the only contender who has already won over the course and distance, having picked up a Listed handicap chase at the end of November. Since then he has finished runner up (beaten a head) in the Group 3, Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park and limbered up for this test with a pipe opener in a handicap hurdle at Naas. He appears reasonably treated off his OR of 136, when compared with his career best RPR of 141, in what appears to be just a moderate renewal of this race (top weight runs off an OR of 154).
0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places) with Boylesport @ 16/1
Betting bank now 106.95 (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
At current odds, I appear to have stumbled on a bit of value with my each way double on CHANCELLOR and GAUCHER @ 40.78/1, as at this present moment they are best priced with William Hill @ 3/1 and 9/2 for combined odds of just 21/1 for both to win.
Getting value on bets is great, but means nothing in the short term if the selections can’t deliver!!
I have nothing else in respect of today’s racing, albeit another of my tracker residents is FAIYUM who is running in the Group 3 for fillies and mares at the Curragh.
Based on her peak performance last season (RPR 114) she has a good chance of winning this race and has been made favourite to do so, but best odds of 6/4 are rather skinny, in light of a few negatives, in that she is making her seasonal debut, stable form has been patchy, she has drifted in the market and there are a couple of fairly unexposed Aidan O’Brien trained 3yo fillies who are receiving 18 lbs worth of allowances.
She is definitely worth following throughout the season, but I will sit this one out today.
However, having checked the weather sites today, it appears that there is not too much rain in the forecast for Aintree between now and the Grand National on 11 April, which has raised my confidence levels in JORDANS, especially as Bet 365 are offering standout odds of 28/1 compared with the 20/1 on offer with the other major bookmakers.
I have therefore placed the following bet:
JORDANS – 0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 5 places) NRNB @ 28/1
It is going to be a busy few days, as I need to analyse a few races over this weekend, plus the initial entries for Aintree will start to become available, so hopefully I will have a few selections to share.
Betting bank now 107.95 pts (with 5.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Sorry, but it is soapbox time again!!
Other than for individuals that are either directly or indirectly employed by Chelmsford racecourse, will it really be a problem if the troubled track loses it’s BHA licence to hold race meetings?
I guess that owners and trainers based in the area, including those with horses based in Newmarket will loose the convenience of an all weather track on their doorstep, but at a time when foaling numbers are reducing by around 6% year on year, there is a strong argument for reducing the number of race meetings held in Britain, so perhaps the closure of Chelmsford can be managed in such a way as to reduce the impact a reduced fixture list across the remaining racecourses?
In addition to the plight of Chelmsford, the future of Kempton Park is uncertain, which in my opinion is probably not a major issue in respect of the all weather track, but would be a crying shame for everyone either involved with national hunt racing and punters alike, albeit I am sure that plenty of the remaining top racecourses would be only to pleased to take over the Kempton’s most prestigious meetings, including the Christmas festival.
If all weather racing is lost at both Chelmsford and Kempton, that still leaves 4 tracks which are located to provide a good coverage across England, with Newcastle in the North, Wolverhampton in the West Midlands, Southwell in the East Midlands and Lingfield in the South.
For those of you like me that remember the birth of all weather racing back in the late 1980s, there were only 3 tracks, the main purpose of which was to provide racing action during the Winter months when adverse weather conditions caused widespread cancellations at the National Hunt tracks.
Back in those days, there was a distinct all weather racing season which started in early November at the end of the turf flat season, which finished roughly in line with the date for the Lincoln Meeting at Doncaster, with just a small smattering of all weather meetings throughout the rest of the year.
Since then there has been major mission creep, resulting in a total of 345 all weather meetings being scheduled for 2026.
In light of the reduced number of foals and the general agreement from many racing professionals and fans that there is too much racing in Great Britain resulting in too many uncompetitive small field races, surely there is a strong argument for reducing the number of all weather fixtures as the first step towards a long term plan covering the whole fixture list?
Perhaps, the BHA should go back to basics and not reallocate the fixtures that will be lost by Chelmsford to the remaining all weather tracks, with the ultimate aim of providing a robust all weather fixture list to cover periods of bad weather during the Winter months, with only a few better quality meetings scheduled during the turf flat season (e.g. the All Weather Championship meeting at Easter, plus the Northumberland Plate meeting in June, etc).
Adopting this type of strategy will hopefully, improve average field sizes for the all weather meetings, which are currently often well below maximum field sizes and if it is found there are too many runners that are balloted out of races, then why not divide races so that meetings consist of up to 10 races, as we saw back in 2020 when racing resumed after the Covid closedown?
Just my humble interpretation of the current situation, albeit I appreciate that the issues are far more complex in reality.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Fully agree with you that CONSTITUTION HILL’s rebirth as a flat race performer has added some spice to the early weeks of the new season, which can seem a little dull until the Craven meeting at Newmarket in April.
As for him getting an entry in the record books, he will probably have some stiff opposition, perhaps even in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury, as William Haggas trains both AL AASY (also 9 years old) and HAMISH (now 10 years old) who are both proven at Group 3 level, including victories last season.
CONSTITUTION HILL is also a year younger than YAVANAS PACE, who was trained by Mark Johnston to win a Group 1 in Cologne at the ripe old age of ten back in 2002.
There are a few weak Listed and Group 3 races for older runners over around 1 1/2 miles, especially if his connections are happy to send him on his travels to some of the lesser tracks in Ireland, France, or Germany.
However, if he retains a handicap mark in the low hundreds, it may be financially beneficial for his owners to target some of the valuable Class 2 handicaps, rather than relatively low value pattern races where the cost of travel will be significant.
Anyway, enough of CONSTITUTION HILL for the time being, as I have taken an early plunge on a couple of tracker entries that are engaged in the All Weather Championship meeting at Newcastle on Good Friday.
CHANCELOR who runs in the Mile Championship Handicap (3.00) has been a revelation on synthetic surfaces since being gelded, having notched a couple of victories and two second place finishes from 4 attempts over the winter. He was added to my tracker when finishing runner up in a Listed race at Kempton recording an RPR of 117, which suggests he is reasonably treated off an OR of 109.
GAUCHER runs in the Middle Distance Championship Handicap (4.10) and to be honest is a bit of a strange one. He was added to my tracker when winning a Grade 3 Hurdle at Tipperary back in October when recording an RPR of 153, but hasn’t run over hurdles since, having been campaigned on the All Weather at Dundalk. He finished fourth on his first attempt over 2 miles, but has since scored wide margin wins in a couple of handicaps over 1 1/2 miles and 1 mile 2 1/2 furlongs, recording successive RPRs of 91, 103 & 112. He races off an OR of 106 on Friday, which may prove lenient in view of his progression over the winter.
The all weather championship meeting is always very competitive, so this is more of a bet in hope rather than expectation, but I had to take on William Hill, as they appear to be offering excellent value by offering best odds on each selection, plus each way terms of 1/4 odds for 4 places and allowing me to use my daily boost to increase any winnings by 12%.
The upshot is:
0.25 pts each way double on CHANCELLOR @ 13/2 and GAUCHER @ 4/1, which has been boosted to 40.78/1.
Betting bank now 108.95 pts (with 4.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
There were no new additions to my tracker after last weekend, as there was a distinct lack of class par performances.
However, it is is worth mentioning a couple of flat runners who were added to the tracker last year, who enhanced their reputations with victories over the weekend.
DOCKLANDS – entered the tracker back in April 2025 when recording an RPR of 118 when runner up to SARDINIAN WARRIOR in the Listed Paradise Stakes at Ascot over the straight mile, although the criteria for backing him were fairly narrow, as he would only be of interest in Group 3 or lower races over 1 mile on a straight track. Prior to Saturday he had subsequently raced 7 times, without getting his optimum requirements, finishing no better than fourth on each occasion, other than when winning the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes (career best RPR 120) over the straight mile at Royal Ascot, which in hindsight was a very moderate renewal. On Saturday, he finally got his preferred requirements and duly won the Listed Doncaster Mile (RPR 117) , which suggests that he is still capable of running well at the age of 6 years old.
DREAMLINER – French trained 4yo colt, who was added to the tracker after he won a Group 3 at Deauville at the end of August for which he was awarded a then career best RPR of 115, which suggested that he would be worth supporting in similar Group 3 or lower events. He ran below form on his only subsequent start last season in a Group 2 at Longchamp, but made a winning seasonal debut in a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud at odds of 15/1, for which he recorded a new career best RPR of 116.
It is also worth noting that the BHA Handicapper has allotted CONSTITUTION HILL an initial OR of 101, which is probably a best guess, stab in the dark, based on the limited information to hand after his first 2 flat race victories against fairly moderate opposition.
It will be interesting to see what happens when CONSTITUTION HILL races against better quality rivals.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Thanks for the update.
I had better get my thinking cap on regarding my free bets and try and find a winner, or two this time.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I sincerely hope thar readers steered clear of the plunge on ALBERT EINSTEIN after Aidan O’Brien nominated the colt as his main hope for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, which resulted in his odds tumbling to around 7/2 favourite, prior to his disappointing seasonal debut run in the Listed Gladness Stakes over 7 furlongs at the Curragh on Saturday.
In hindsight, I guess alarm bells should have started ringing when Aidan O’Brien also mentioned that this colt was probably the fastest that he has trained, as whilst the stable is better known for training Group 1 winners over at least 1 mile, there have also been a few top class sprinters during his illustrious training career, that provide a good benchmark for his comment.
That said, if ALBERT EINSTEIN really is that quick and can be trained to stay a mile, then we are probably looking at a colt that may be capable of producing devastating performances in the style of FRANKEL, which in reality is unlikely, albeit not impossible.
In addition, his breeding is a little suspect for producing progeny that will truly stay 1 mile, as whilst his sire WOOTTON BASSETT has a fine record of getting top quality milers and middle distance performers, his dam YET only raced 3 times as a 2yo, with her only victory being achieved over 5 furlongs, making her a typical offspring of WAR FRONT, who’s best performers are often sprinters, or highly precocious 2yos who often fail to improve with age.
It is also worth noting that ALBERT EINSTEIN is an unusually big colt, who reportedly weighs around 560 kg, which gives him the appearance of a powerful sprinter.
Having viewed the Gladness stakes, it appears that ALBERT EINSTEIN was ridden to try to get him to settle in an attempt to eke out his stamina, but he took a keen hold which was not ideal in a moderately run race on slow turf and was given an easy time in the last furlong, when his chance of winning had gone.
Immediately after the race Aidan O’Brien stated that the colt was in his view likely to be campaigned as a sprinter, but the final decision would be made by his powerful owners.
ALBERT EINSTEIN is now best priced at 25/1 for the 200 Guineas, but in light of the above concerns, I would not even chance a pound at four times those odds, even if his owners decide to give him another chance over 1 mile on hopefully better ground.
However, that raises the question of whether it is worthwhile backing him at around 12/1 for the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup over 6 furlongs at Royal Ascot?
On the positive side, there is no reason to disbelieve his trainer when he states that ALBERT EINSTEIN is the fastest horse he has trained.
In addition, Aidan O’Brien’s only other winner of the Commonwealth Cup was CARAVAGGIO who won his first 2 starts as a 2yo posting RPRs of 94 and 107, whilst ALBERT EINSTEIN’s brief 2yo career produced 2 wins recording similar RPRs of 92 and 105.
However, CARAVAGGIO remained unbeaten in 5 starts prior to his victory in the Commonwealth Cup and had already secured a course and distance victory at Royal Ascot, plus a Group 1 win, whereas ALBERT EINSTIEN is currently unproved both at the track and above Group 3 level.
With WAR FRONT as his dam sire, he has yet to prove that he has trained on.
Also, Aidan O’Brien trains a number of other 3yo sprinters who could be aimed at the same race, including BRUSSELS and CHARLES DARWIN, who are more experienced and currently rated higher than ALBERT EINSTEIN, so he may not get a run in the race.
To be honest, I am currently on the fence as to whether I should back him, or not at 12/1, so will await his next run and decide which way to jump albeit I could end up with no bet at all if his odds tumble after an impressive performance.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
It always amazes me that despite the excellent prize money on offer at Meydan for the Dubai World Cup meeting, very few horses record performances that achieve the class par figures for the grade of race in which they run.
In fact only 4 of the previous 80 winners across the card during the past 10 DWC meetings have done so and none of yesterday’s winners met the challenge.
This overall lack of quality performances is worth noting, especially for the winners who will be shipped back to their native countries to resume their careers in Group/Graded races, as they are often not capable of winning similar races back on home soil and face having to carry significant penalties if dropped in class.
The winning RPRs for this year are listed below:
BANASHING – won Group 2 with an RPR of 118 = Group 3 performance
FAIRY GLEN – won Group 2 RPR 112 = below Group 3 class par
WONDER DEAN – won Group 2 for 3yos RPR 112 = Group 3 performance
NATIVE APPROACH – won Group 1 RPR 115 = below Group 3 class par
DARK SAFFRON – won Group 1 RPR 115 = below Group 3 class par
OMBUDSMAN – won Group 1 RPR 123 = Group 2 performance
CALANDAGAN – won Group 1 RPR 123 = Group 2 performance
MAGNITUDE – won Group 1 RPR 125 = Group 2 performance
Both OMBUDSMAN and CALANDAGAN should be fine as they have already proven themselves to be true Group 1 performers and are likely to be strong contenders when running in more competitive events.
The two Group 1 sprint winners, NATIVE APPROACH and DARK SAFFRON tend to only race locally, but may struggle to carry Group 1 penalties in lower quality races throughout their next season and are unlikely to cope when facing better quality rivals at next year’s DWC meeting.
The remaining 4 winners are likely to struggle when returning to their native countries and like the two sprint winners are likely to prove worth opposing when next seen.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I didn’t get everything right with regards to my thoughts on the Dubai Gold Cup meeting at Meydan, as both OMBUDSMAN and CALANDAGAN both won on their seasonal debuts, albeit their winning RPRs of 123 were significantly below their career best figures, so perhaps they may have struggled if facing worthwhile opposition, who knows?
However, I did predict that PYROMANCER was like to struggle in the UAE Derby and that FOREVER YOUNG was unlikely to run to his best.
My selection against the latter, HIT SHOW was a little disappointing, as he could only finish fifth, but that was enough to produce a 0.44 pt profit on the day.
Betting bank now 109.45 pts (including 4.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
The recent weather in the Gulf States has stormy and with further rain forecast, the dirt track at Meydan may end up sloppy, or even muddy, as opposed to the usual fast conditions.
Having checked on the 9 declared runners for the Dubai World Cup, none of them appear to have any meaningful form on muddy dirt, whilst only one horse has previously won on a sloppy surface, so the race could end up being a lottery.
Fortunately, the runner with form on sloppy is my selection HIT SHOW, who has won both a Group 2 and a Group 3 race on his last 2 attempts on rain affected dirt, recording an RPR of 118 each time, which suggests that whilst he is probably better on a fast surface, he can at least handle slower dirt.
I have therefore taken the plunge and placed the following bets with Bet 365:
0.5 pts win @ 14/1, plus 1.5 pts for a top 5 finish @ 5/8, which may prove a better alternative than a straight each way wager, if a couple of his rivals are withdrawn due to adverse underfoot conditions.
Betting Bank now 107.01 pts (with 4.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
All the best,
Rob.
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