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RobmullParticipantHi folks,
With the participation of FACT OR FILE in doubt due going concerns, I have cashed out the antepost 1.0 pt each way double with DINOBLUE, which was not NRNB.
Possibly a poor decision, but I believe that McManus/Mullins will put the horse’s welfare first and I would prefer to get a small return of 2.98 pts for a profit of 0.98 pts rather than lose another 2.0 pts without getting a run for my money.
Furthermore, the 2 pts NRNB win bet on LOSSIEMOUTH for the Mares Hurdle has been refunded.
Betting bank now 94.30 pts (with 9.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I thought that my bookmakers would be offering super boosts on WODHOOH in the Mares’ Hurdle, this morning.
However, two of them have gone with FACT TO FILE, with a boosted price of 7/4, which is undoubtedly value when compared with the best odds of evens available elsewhere.
Although I have backed him antepost in an each way double, after which he romped home over 3 miles and 1/2 furlongs at the DRF, I have developed a niggling doubt as to whether he will have got over what was quite a hard race in heavy ground, so I am not keen to back him further without insurance.
I have therefore taken the safe option and gone with the following:
4.0 pts win @ 7/4 for a return of 11 pts
6.4 pts lay (not to win) on the exchanges for a return of 11 pts after commission.This has given me a guaranteed profit of 0.6 pts, which covered a very speculative investment which I made late last night, just before going to sleep.
I was not intending to get involved in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase (5.20) and I can’t take any credit for finding this one, as he was identified by Paul Kealy in the Racing Post, but I thought that he reasoning was spot on and the horse was worth a small investment at massive odds.
The horse in question is HUNG JURY, who is now 11 years old and has spent most of his career racing in PTPs, prior to being sent to Martin Keighley’s stable about a year ago. Since then he has run over fences on 6 occasions, winning twice and finishing runner up once.
Both of his wins have been achieved at Cheltenham from 3 attempts, so he clearly likes the track and should have no difficulty with the underfoot conditions having won on both good to soft and heavy ground. He runs off an OR of 127 today, which appears more than fair, based on his career best RPR of 135 and will be ridden by Mr James King, who is a more than competent amateur jockey, who was aboard when the horse was successful on his latest visit to the track.
I hope readers will forgive me for quoting the odds that I secured last night, which is a bit naughty as they have been cut, but I honestly haven’t found the time to post until now.
0.25 pts win with William Hill who kindly allowed me to use my daily boost on their standout odds of 66/1 to secure 75.38/1, plus 0.25 pts for a top 10 finish with Bet 365 @ 13/8 (current best win odds 40/1 and 7/5 for a top 10 finish)
Betting bank now 89.32 pts (with 13.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
Good luck everyone..
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi guys,
Many thanks for your kind comments.
Many punters tend to turn the heat up and take a few chances after a couple of good days, but I have learnt from bitter experience that it is often better to take a conservative approach, so sorry no fireworks for Thursday.
I already have antepost investments, as follows:
1.20 OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW – 1 pt each way double with DINOBLUE on Friday
3.20 BOB OLINGER – 1 pt each way
4.00 FACT TO FILE – 1 pt each way double with DINOBLUE on Friday
4.40 RED DIRT ROAD – 0.5 pts each wayMy only addition at this stage is a further 1.0 pt bet on RED DIRT ROAD to achieve a top 10 finish @ 6/4.
However, the shape of the market for the Mares’ Hurdle looks interesting, especially if the favourite WODHOOH is offered with boosted odds, so I may be back tomorrow, with a further bet.
Betting bank now 100.42 pts (with 13.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
Good luck everyone
Rob
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Poor jumpers rarely win the Champions Chase, as MAJBOROUGH has again shown – the further he went the less assured his jumping became, until he made a complete hash when put under pressure by a rival who was upsides him – definitely not one to be trusted!!
Perhaps I should have summed up the courage to lay him outright, but that said he was never available at odds against to fail, so I will take my 0.5 pts profit for an outlay of 5 pts and be grateful.
What can I say about my other bet on Wednesday, JINGKO BLUE (0.5 pts each way @ 20/1) who was backed off the boards and duly justified favouritism @ 9/2 to demolish the opposition in the Bet MGM Cup by 6 lengths.
That makes a total return for the day of 19.0 pts, which certainly makes the betting bank balance a good deal healthier and should guarantee a profit for the festival whatever happens over the next couple of days.
I will return later with my thoughts for Thursday.
Betting bank now 101.42 pts (with 13.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
MAJBOROUGH has been the subject of a few odds boosts in the Champion Chase and is on offer at 7/4, which based on my analysis is a good price.
However, despite these value odds, I just can’t bring myself to take the plunge and back this well documented dodgy jumper of fences, with some insurance.
Purists will probably not approve of the action that I have taken, but in my opinion all is fair in the punting game, so I have placed the following wagers:
2 pts win @ 7/4 with one of the bookmakers offering boosted odds
3 pts lay (not to win) on the exchange at the equivalent of 5/6 (after commission)Both these wagers will produce a return of 5.5 pts for an outlay of 5.0 pts, leaving a small profit of 0.5 pts, whatever the result, which is an acceptable guaranteed return in my book.
Betting bank now 82.42 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
Good luck everyone..
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Six of the seven races at Cheltenham on Wednesday appear extremely competitive and to be honest if I was to pick 6 runners in each, I would probably struggle to find a single winner.
That said, I do have the 0.5 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) antepost investment on JINKO BLUE @ 20/1, which at least suggests that I have secured a bit of value as the selection is now best priced @ 11/1 (generally 10/1).
My other antepost selection was EDWARDSTONE, but he has not been declared for the Grand Annual, so my stake has been returned.
The one race that is of interest to me is the Champion Chase, in which the favourite MAJBOROUGH is the key runner.
Previously on this thread, I have mentioned that I would be keen to lay MAJBOROUGH at a shade of odds against, as I believe that he has a 50/50 chance of winning, however at the time of writing his odds with Bet 365 are 5/6 either to win, or not to win, so no value at present.
I shall therefore closely monitor his odds tomorrow morning, as his odds not ro win may drift allowing me to lay him to win, or his odds to win may be boosted by one of my bookmakers, in which case I may even be prepared to back him.
Betting bank now 87.42 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
Hopefully, more opportunities will arise over Thursday and Friday.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Looks like I won this particular Kit Kat challenge, with PORQUOI PAS PAPA finishing 4th, but your sweet treat is safe, as I can’t eat them, being both gluten and dairy intolerant.
I also has BIBE MUS on my shortlist, until he ran on Saturday, but the 5 lbs penalty that he picked up for his win meant that he dropped out of my reckoning.
Interestingly, I should also have backed the winner, as SARATOGA was the only runner from the juvenile hurdle at Naas, which has now provided 5 of the last 8 winners of this race, but for me his odds were too short.
Overall, the first day of the festival has gone well, resulting in a return of 16.60 pt return (including stakes), thanks to:
SOBER GLORY – 2nd
PORQUOI PAS PAPA 4th
LOSSIEMOUTH – 1stThe only disappointment being ANZADAM who finished 7th of 9 runners behind LOSSIEMOUTH in the Champion Hurdle.
Betting bank now 86.42 pts (with 15.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
I will return with my thoughts for tomorrow later.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Please place the first of my £5 free bets on ANZADAM without the favourites.
Many thanks,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have found a couple of selections for Tuesday, which are unlikely to be subject to any special offers from my bookmakers.
1.20 SOBER GLORY – has barely put a foot run during his short career, having won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles, having previously been successful in his sole start in a PTP and in all 3 runs in NH flat races. He has solid claims based on both his best RPR of 155 (4 lbs below top rating) and TS of 151 (best in race) and the old course should suit his prominent running style, yet he is available at 14/1, which in my opinion underestimates his chance of a podium finish.
0.5 pts win @ 14/1 and 1.5 pts for a top 6 finish @ 20/23 (just in case he gets run down by the finishers on the long run in) with Bet 365.
2.40 PORQUOI PAS PAPA – has just one victory from 5 hurdle starts, but has finished runner up on each other occasions. He recorded a career best RPR of 121 last time, when beaten 2 1/4 lengths by the reopposing MANLAGA, but is now 6 lbs better off with that rival, yet is available at 20/1, whereas the victor is a 7/1 shot. He is another prominent racer and could be open to further improvement on his handicap debut for a trainer, Paul Nicholls, who has won this race on 3 occasions in the past.
0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places. plus 1 pt for a top 10 finish @ 13/10 with Bet 365.
I also have a couple of antepost investments running in the Champion Hurdle (4.00), namely ANZADAM and LOSSIEMOUTH.
Bet bank now 69.82 pts (with 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Yesterday ended up a busy day for my family, culminating in a rare visit to the cinema to watch the Peaky Blinders film, prior to it being available on Netflix – well worth watching, provided the back story is known by the viewer.
Today is no less busy as we have a classical music concert to attend this afternoon, followed by a meal out with some old friends, who religiously visit Cheltenham for the Festival.
Hence a quick update on yesterday’s developments.
My first daily bet for a fortnight, OOH BETTY ended up a non runner, due to the deteriorating ground, so just got my money back.
The announcement of the final entries for the Friday of the festival provided a pleasant surprise in respect of my antepost portfolio, as FACT TO FILE was not supplemented for the Gold Cup, so he will be carrying my money in the Ryanair Chase on Thursday, with DINOBLUE, who remains favourite for the Mares’ Chase on Friday.
DINOBLUE also remains on course to run for me in another each way (NRNB) double with OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle on Thursday.
Moving on to my other antepost selections for Friday, as expected ANZADAM who I backed each way (NRNB) for the County Hurdle, just in case he didn’t run in the Champion Hurdle, was scratched, so money back, which I have reinvested as follows:
2.00 KARBAU – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) with Bet 365, who have boosted his odds to 9/1 (generally 8/1 elsewhere).
My other two antepost selections remain live and there odds have pleasingly tightened up:
4.00 HAITI COULEURS – 1 pt each way (NRNB) @ 9.78/1 (current best odds 8/1, but generally 6/1)
5.20 KEL HISTOIRE – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) @ 14/1 (generally 6/1 favourite)
On balance, my antepost portfolio is currently looking fairly healthy, but that is the easy part of the equation, as my selection now needs to be to deliver a positive return.
I have yet to review the final declarations for Tuesday, which were released at 10.00 am this morning, but that is not a major problem at this stage as I want to see the special offers from my bookmakers before parting with further funds.
Betting bank now 73.82 pts (with 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Three posts in one day is probably a record, especially as this one contains details of a bet for tomorrow, which I appreciate has been rather a rarity over the past few weeks!!
Back in January, I was less than complimentary when detailing my thoughts on the victory of OOH BETTY at Ascot, but that was in the context of her having won probably the weakest Grade 2 hurdle race for mares for some time.
However, she now reappears in the Class 2, Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle at Sandown, which is far more appropriate in relation to her level of ability.
She could only finish eleventh in the race last year, when sent off at 8/1, but didn’t actually run too badly as she was only beaten 9 3/4 lengths, despite not being able to take up her customary prominent position.
Hopefully, she can get closer to the early pace this time, as she has plenty of ticks in the right boxes, having recorded 5 of her 6 hurdle victories when racing right handed, including over course and distance on her only other appearance at Sandown.
She will almost certainly need a career best effort to win, but looks capable of providing sort of return on the following investments with Bet 365
0.5 pts each way (1/5 odds for 6 places) @ 22/1
1.0 pt for a top 10 finish @ 23/20Betting bank now 71.82 pts (including 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked)
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
The confirmed entries for the third day of the Cheltenham Festival have not impacted on my antepost bets, leaving the following investments in tact:
2.40 LOSSIEMOUTH – 2.0 pts win (NRNB) @ Evens – current best odds range from 8/11 to 5/4
3.20 BOB OLINGER – 1.0 pts each way @ 14/1 – current best odds 7/1, but more generally 6/1
4.40 RED DIRT ROAD – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) @ 33/1 – remains generally a 33/1 shot
There are also a couple of each way doubles on OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW (NRNB) and FACT TO FILE coupled with DINOBLUE, the fate of which will not be known until tomorrow.
However, there was one notable absentee in ANYWAY, who I had previously highlighted as a potential selection in the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Any reader who has logged on to William Hill today will no doubt be tempted by their Epic Boost offering evens for any favourite to win on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival.
The offer states that the current odds for this bet without the boost is 1/16, which implies that they are allowing all customers the opportunity to bet a maximum of £10 at evens with a 94.1% chance of success.
This in turn suggest that the theoretical chance of the bet failing is just 5.9%.
At first glance this appears to represent incredible value and no doubt many punters will take advantage of the offer.
However, using the best odds currently on offer from a selection of the major bookmakers on each of the favourites, which may of course change significantly between now and the start of each of the 7 races at Cheltenham on Tuesday gives a significantly different result when calculating the odds for the bet failing is around 25%, excluding overrounds.
This suggests that the true odds for any one of the favourites winning on Tuesday to be around the 75% mark, which is a 1/3 shot.
In conclusion, based on my calculations, the offer does represent value, as punters can secure even money on a 1/3 shot, but it is nowhere near as generous as suggested in the advertisement.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
At least I have no more casualties from my dwindling antepost portfolio after the latest entry stage for the second day of the Cheltenham Festival, as both of my selections remain in contention for a run.
2.40 JINGKO BLEU – 0.5pts each way (NRNB) @ 20/1 – currently best priced at 16/1, but is more generally a 14/1 shot
4.40 EDWARDSTONE – 0.5 pts each way (NRNB) @ 33/1 – currently on offer at odds varying from 20/1 to 40/1.
It is also interesting to note that recent activity on the exchanges suggests that LOSSIEMOUTH is likely to finally get a chance of running in the Champion Hurdle, rather than going for a third successive victory in the Mares’ Hurdle.
All the best,
Rob.
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