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RobmullParticipantHi folks,
If racing goes ahead at Newbury tomorrow, the underfoot conditions are going to be attritional, which suggests that to find a winner we may need to identify a runner who has webbed feet and breathes through gills!!
Having reviewed the runners for the William Hill Hurdle, there are very few that are proven on heavy ground.
One runner who does appear equipped for the task in hand is MILLDAM, who is more exposed than the usual winner of this race, but boasts 4 wins from 5 attempts on heavy ground and has recorded his career best RPR of 131 on such a. surface.
He has yet to be placed in three starts this season, but looked to be coming to his best when fifth at Windsor last time out, for which he was awarded his best RPR away from heavy ground of 127.
He has to race off an OR of 127 in this race, which suggests that he is not particularly well treated, however his trainer Jamie Snowdon has booked Isobel Ryder who is a useful conditional jockey who can claim 5 lbs and has a good record for the stable.
I have therefore invested 0.5 pts win @ 14/1 and 1.5 pts top 8 finish @ 5/6 with Bet 365.
Betting bank now 78.82 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
Good luck everyone.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Since the defeat of LOSSIEMOUTH on Sunday, I have been trying to second guess her target race at the Cheltenham Festival, which is probably a pointless endeavour in light of her connections past antics for the mare whereby she has appeared to be a likely candidate for the Champion Hurdle, prior to eventually being declared for the Mares’ Hurdle.
Despite the lack of a standout runner in this year’s Champion Hurdle, I suspect that she will again be tasked with winning the Mares’ Hurdle for the third consecutive year.
On the basis that she has justified odds of 8/13 and 4/6 in the last two renewals of the Mares’s event, her current odds of evens (NRNB) appear generous, especially as I have been able to use my daily odds boost with William Hill, which has increased the odds to 1.07/1.
Obviously, not a particularly exciting antepost bet, but 2pts to win at 1.07/1 is worth taking compared to her previous SPs.
Betting bank now 80.82 pts (with 14.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
More than happy for you to link all my antepost bets on the new thread.
My understanding around DONNACHA is that he has already been reassessed by the BHA with his OR having been raised 4 lbs to 136, which appears lenient bearing in mind he beat JAGWAR on Cheltenham Trials day.
Unless one or more of the beaten horses in that race produces a significantly better performance between now and the entry date for the Plate, DONNACHA should run off 136 in the race.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
The winner of the Grade 3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse is usually worth following and I suspect that OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW will maintain that record this year.
Although her winning RPR of 137 is a little lower than I would have expected, it still suggests that she is improving quickly and is likely to rank amongst the best mares over hurdles from this year’s intake.
Let’s not forget that she beat last year’s Champion Bumper winner BAMBINO FEVER by 1/2 lengths when they were both making their debut over obstacles and her latest RPR is 6lbs superior to that recorded by the runner up next time out, albeit they both won easily, which suggests that they are likely to improve further with experience.
They are both likely to run in the mare’s novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, but whilst BAMBINO FEVER is currently priced up at 6/4 (NRNB) favourite, OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW is available at 11/4 in the same market with Bet 365.
As I am also conscious that my previous ante post each way double with DINOBLUE for the Mares Chase and FACT TO FILE for the Ryanair Chase is doomed to failure due to the likely change of plan for the latter, I have placed a 1 pt each way double with Bet 365, as follows:
OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW @ 11/4 and DINOBLUE @ 13/8, both 1/5 odds for 3 places, which pays 8.84/1.
I have also been busy placing a couple of NRNB each way singles with Bet 365 on horses that I have previously noted on this thread as being potentially well handicapped, namely:
DONNACHA @ 20/1 (1/5 odds 4 places) for the Festival Plate Handicap Chase
ANNUAL INVICTUS @ 33/1 (1/5 odds for 4 places) for the Cross Country Handicap Chase
Readers will need to go back to my earlier postings for the rationale for each bet.
Betting Bank now 82.82 pts (with 12.0 pts of ante post wagers booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Another poor performance by my selections, with MANGE TOOT finishing third and AFFORDABLE FURY being pulled up, which scuppered even the top finish double, which is indicative of my punting prowess at present.
Hopefully things will improve soon.
Moving on, here are my thoughts on the results of the Grade 1 events on Saturday, Sunday and Monday:
SIXMILEBRIDGE – sprang a surprise at Sandown in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase over 2m4f for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 155. However, his task was made easier by the favourite unseating early on and he appeared to handle the underfoot conditions better than his remaining two rivals, which makes me sceptical of what he actually achieved. He will need to either step up, or down in trip if running in either of the Grade 1 Novice Chases at Cheltenham and further significant improvement will be required.
KAID D’AUTHIE – recorded a career best RPR of 162 for his victory in the Ladbroke Novice Chase at Leopardstown, which suggests that he could be a player in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham. However, it is difficult to take the form at face value when both his stablemates, including the odds on favourite FINAL DENAND both ran below form, with his only other rival WESTERN FOLD, who finished runner up would have hated the ground.
TALK THE TALK – did well to get up on the line to win the 2 mile novice hurdle for which he was awarded an RPR of 144, however there was little to choose between the top 3 finishers, suggesting the form is nothing special. He will need to improve significantly in the Supreme Novice Hurdle to beat the current favourite OLD PARK STAR.
MAJBOROUGH – finally proved that he could jump fences when demolishing his rivals by 19 lengths to take the Dublin Chase, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 179. That figure is well out of line with his previous performances, which suggests that he has either made rapid improvement in the last month, or he was the only runner who really handled the underfoot conditions. My take is that his jumping could still prove an issue at pace on faster ground and I believe that the runner up MARINE NATIONAL, will reverse the form in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham providing the going is no worse than soft.
BETTERDAYSAHEAD – beat he main market rival LOSSIEMOUTH fare and square to take the Irish Champion Hurdle. She was awarded an RPR of 162 for that effort, which on paper gives her every chance of winning the equivalent race at Cheltenham. However, she appears to perform significantly better at Leopardstown that elsewhere and has been beaten on both attempts at Cheltenham. In my opinion, LOSSIEMOUTH is the more likely winner if the pair should lock horns at Cheltenham, albeit her connections have a track record of bypassing the Champion Hurdle in favour of the Grade 1 mares event.
DOCTOR STEINBERG – easily justified favouritism in the 2m6f Grade 1 novice event to maintain his unbeaten record over hurdles and could well be capable of significant additional improvement. An RPR of 149 suggests that he has strong claims in either the Turners, or Albert Bartlett novice hurdles at Cheltenham, albeit the latter race has proved to be a graveyard for favourites over the past decade.
NARSICO HAS – cemented his position at the head of the betting for the Triumph Hurdle with a bold front running display in the Juvenile Hurdle for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 139. He probably needs to improve at least another 6 lbs to win at Cheltenham, but he is certainly in pole position at this stage.
ROMEO COOLIO – maintained his unbeaten record over fences and notched his third Grade 1 success in the Irish Arkle, but his RPR of 157 was 4 lbs below his best effort, which strongly suggests that he needs further than 2 miles, so a step up in trip for the Brown Advisory could be the best option for him, especially as FINAL DEMAND fluffed his lines on Sunday.
FACT TO FILE – recorded a strong performance to win the Irish Gold Cup by 5 lengths from stablemate GAELIC WARRIOR by 5 lengths. His winning RPR of 177 was a career equalling best effort and suggests that he does stay 3 miles, which from my perspective is a real kick in the teeth, as connections are likely to supplement him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, which would scupper my antepost ticket on him to win the Ryanair Chase, which was his only entry for the festival. I may be biased, but I am not convinced that he will win the Gold Cup, based on this effort, as he has a further 2 furlongs to travel in a race that it likely to run at a strong pace.
There were also two Grade 2 Bumpers run at Leopardstown, but neither the mare MOONVERRIN (RPR 118), nor the gelding BROADWAY TED (RPR 128) produced the sort of performance to suggest that they would be capable of winning the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham.
Betting Bank now 86.82 pts ( with 8.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Saturday’s. bet still stands with B365.
I will also start looking for NRNB opportunities over the next few days, but want to digest the fallout from the DRF first, as a number of Sunday’s results look rather suspect from a form perspective, especially when considering Cheltenham on what will hopefully prove to be less attritional ground.
I have a horrible feeling that today’s results may also need careful scrutiny.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I also have JIMMY DU SEUIL running in the 1.10 @ Leopardstown.
Good luck everyone,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
The first day of the Dublin Racing Festival has provided a couple of selections, so hopefully Leopardstown will pass tomorrow’s inspection.
1.50 – MANGE TOUT – beat her main road rival NARSICO by 2 3/4 lengths receiving 3 lbs last time and now faces that gelding again in receipt of 7 lbs, albeit that rival has since improved to take a Grade 2. Based on adjusted RPRs, the pair should dead heat, yet the favourite is currently best priced at 10/11, whilst my selection is available with Bet 365 at 3/1.
3.30 – AFFORDABLE FURY – won the Grade 1 over today’s course and distance at Christmas, yet is on currently offer at 8/1 with B365 against 12 rivals who all have questions to answer.
I have place 0.5 pts win bets on each, plus a top finish double with Bet 365 with MANGE TOOT @ 10/19 for 3 places and AFFORDABLE FULY for 6 places @ 4/7 which pays around 1.3/1.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Me again!!
I didn’t mention the Cheltenham handicap chases on Trials day during yesterday’s review, but now the BHA handicapper has reassessed the form, I think I may have uncovered some well handicapped horses that would be of interest if turning up at the Festival.
DONNACHA – has only been raised 4 lbs to 136 for his victory in the 2m 4 1/2 furlong handicap chases, which was one of the few races that was run at a strong pace, despite recording a career best RPR of 143. His obvious target will be the Plate Handicap Chase, which will be run on the speedier old course this year, but should not inconvenience him.
JAGWAR – was beaten a neck by DONNACHA on Saturday, but still recorded a career best RPR of 160, but his OR has only been raised 3 lbs to 152 for that effort, which means that he is slightly better treated than the winner. He is a specialist on the new course and may be inconvenienced in the Plate on the faster old course, especially as his jumping at speed can be a little sketchy at times, so perhaps it is time for his connections to bite the bullet and step him up in trip for the Ultima Handicap Chase.
ANNUAL INVICTUS – only finished fourth on his first attempt on the cross country course, but he made up a significant amount of ground towards the finish despite his jockey advising us that his saddled had slipped. He was beaten over 15 lengths and the handicapper has eased him a couple of lbs to a rating of 135. However, in light of the slipping saddle and his inexperience of cross country obstacles, I believe that he could easily improve by at least 14 lbs next time, in which case he would be a leading each way player over the same course at the festival. That said, he will probably be running from a few lbs out of the handicap, so much will depend on how the BHA handicapper treats last years winner STUMPTOWN, who is currently rated 157 in Ireland and will almost certainly be top weight and nudged up a little for last year’s victory.
All the best,
Rob.
PS – if anyone has any thoughts they wish to share, or disagrees with my ideas, please feel free to respond at any time, as the more insight we get the better our chances of finding some value selections.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Here are my thoughts in respect of the two Grade 3 races at Naas on Sunday:
GLEN KILN – recorded a career best RPR of 151 to win the Limestone Lad Hurdle over 2 miles. His performances this season suggest that he is still improving on his 18th career start over hurdles, but this is probably his level and whilst he jumped well on this occasion, two unseats in his last 6 attempts suggests that backing him comes with risks attached.
ARGENTO BOY – stayed on strongly to record an RPR of 150 in the Novice Chase over 3 miles 1/2 furlong. He appears to relish both heavy ground and a test of stamina, and whilst he is unlikely to cope with step up to Grade 1 level (needs to improve at least a further 10 lbs), he may be of interest in either the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, which is now run as a handicap, or the Irish Grand National, albeit his chances will be very much dependent on what the Irish and BHA assessors make of this victory.
Whilst writing, it was interesting to see that Tom Segal (Pricewise) has put up BOB OLINGER as his antepost tip for the Stayers Hurdle, resulting in his odds contracting to 6/1 generally (7/1 B365 and 8/1 William Hill), which suggests that win or lose my 14/1 ticket offer a bit of value).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have to say that I was totally underwhelmed by the winning performances of the graded races at both Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday.
Most of the races were run at a funereal early pace, resulting in sprint finishes, which means that these trials give us very few clues as to whether the runners will appreciate the hurly burly of the fast run races at the Cheltenham Festival.
Anyway, here are my thoughts regarding the seven Grade 2 events:
DONCASTER
THEDEVILUNO – appreciated the step up to 3 miles in a truly run race to post a career best RPR of 145. That figure marks him as a realistic contender for the Albert Bartlett, albeit he will probably need to find a further improvement of at least 6 lbs if he is to win the race at the festival, for which he is quoted at 14/1 best odds.
FEET OF A DANCER – won the next race for mares over the same distance, but in a time 10 seconds slower than her above mentioned stablemate. She was also stepping up in trip, but her winning RPR of 143, leaves her well short of the figure needed to win a Stayers’ Hurdle, whilst the drop back in distance for the Mares’ Hurdle looks less than ideal.
CHELTENHAM
MAESTRO CONTI – has shown progressive form in Juvenile Hurdles, but his winning RPR of just 123 for narrowly beating a fairly exposed opponent leaves him needing to find at least another 20 lbs improvement to win a moderate Triumph Hurdle. His current best odds of 9/1 for that race indicates that this year’s juveniles are a very moderate bunch.
SPILLANE’S TOWER – returned to form for which he was awarded a RPR of 164, but with the favourite GREY DAWNING running a strange race in third, the race took little winning. He will probably run in the Gold Cup, but is unlikely to get involved in the finish, unless he can find around 14 lbs improvement on his 12th start over fences.
THE NEW LION – the early pace was lamentably steady, resulting in a finishing time that was 13 seconds slower than the earlier Triumph Hurdle trial, plus the race was spoilt as a proper test when the hot favourite SIR GINO, was pulled up injured. At least THE NEW LION completed this time and managed to scramble home against a couple of significantly inferior rivals, for which he was awarded a fairly meaningless RPR of just 147. He really needs a strongly run race at 2 miles, which at least he should get in the Champion Hurdle, but whether he offers any value at current best odds of 10/3 is debatable, as he probably needs to improve his career best RPR by at least 8 lbs, over a distance which may prove short of his best.
MA SHANTOU – recorded a career best RPR of 155 for this winning effort and clearly enjoys racing at Cheltenham having won in 3 of his 4 attempts. That said, the two hurdlers that followed him home ran below their best and he will probably need to improve at least 10 lbs to win an average Stayers’ Hurdle.
KRIPTICJIM – progressive novice hurdler who has won his last 3 starts, recording a career best RPR of 133 for this victory in the dark, due to the race being delayed. Although he is entered at the Cheltenham Festival, it is difficult to imagine him being good enough to be involved in the finish of a Grade 1 novice event.
None of the above results have prompted me to add any further antepost bets to my small portfolio.
I will provide my thoughts on the graded race action in Ireland on Sunday over the next couple of days.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I agree that sectional timing could provide an edge in the future once we have an understanding of the message that the figures provide.
However, at this stage my main point was that as Racing TV provide the actual finishing times for each runner, the need to estimate times based on lengths beaten negates the need to some some tricky calculations and should make the resultant speed rating more accurate.
The Racing TV results also provide some interesting stats in respect of each runners ability to jump obstacles, which may prove useful.
Good luck with your bet today – I presume that you are attempting to identify selections that have previously shown that they can handle heavy ground ?
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Just a quick post detailing my thought on the result of the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle held at Gowran Park on Thursday.
The winner HOME BY THE LEE did well to give weight to his 5 rivals in such atrocious conditions to record a near personal best RPR of 162. However, he has failed in 4 previous attempts to win the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham, whilst his two top level hurdles wins have been achieved at Leopardstown, which suggests to me that he is unlikely to gain a third Grade 1 victory this spring, albeit he should be worth considering in calmer waters.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Since our previous email discussion, I have been doing some digging and believe that I have found the answer to your first question.
If you log on to the Racing TV website, they offer a free results service which includes a sectional timing tab.
On the right hand side of the sectional timing data the actual time taken by each runner is shown, which I presume you can use to produce your speed figures without the need to calculate estimated finishing times based on lengths beaten.
There is also a plethora of additional information provided by RACEIQ that may be of assistance, which I suggest we all consider and discuss over the next few weeks, time permitting.
I will give further consideration to your second question regarding weight adjustments over the next week, or so.
All the best,
Rob
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