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RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Just one week until the start of the Cheltenham Festival and there is already a buzz of anticipation in the town.
I have a number of thoughts that I wish to share, so will start with a quick review of the 3 graded races that were run over last weekend.
MONTEMARES – won the Premier Novices’ Hurdle at Kelso by 6 1/2 lengths, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 135. That figure is towards the lower end of list of RPRs recorded by winners during the past decade and it is not easy to get a grip on what this gelding actually achieved with all of his 3 market rivals having been pulled up. For now I have taken the stance that he should be opposed next time out, unless he appears in a weak event.
Supporters of NO DRAMA THIS END in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle will no doubt feel that MONTEMARES victory boosts the form of the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, but I am again lukewarm warm on the Paul Nicholls trained runner who is vying for favouritism in that race.
JACOBS LADDER – was odds on to win what appeared to be a weak renewal of the Grade 3, Flyingbolt Novice Chase at Navan and duly obliged his supporters finishing 1 1/4 lengths ahead of his nearest rival. He was given an RPR of 144 for this victory, but had won a competitive handicap at the DRF last time out for which he was awarded his career best RPR of 152, so he clearly didn’t have much to beat on Saturday. He has plenty of scope for further improvement, but he is not one that I would be entrusting with my money at this stage until he proves that he can run to his OR of 151.
JAMES DU BERLAIS – defied a significant drift in the market to win the Grade 2, Websters Cup Chase at Navan even though he ended up the outsider of the 4 runner field at an SP of 11/1. His winning RPR of 153, was fully 6 lbs below his career best figure and with just 3 wins from 20 starts over fences, I shall not be clamouring to support him next time.
I also wanted to mention a couple of horses that have recently appeared on this thread.
JORDANS – was previously highlighted as a well handicapped horse after which he was pulled up in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park, on heavy ground, prior to running in a Listed handicap chase over 2m 5 1/2f at Fairyhouse yesterday. He could only finish eleventh of the 16 starters, but was only beaten 15 lengths, having been outpaced at the finish. Perhaps it is now possible to get a feel for his prime conditions, which I believe are something close to a handicap chase over at least 3 miles on ground ranging from good through to yeilding to soft. I did not back him yesterday, but will keep him in my tracker until he has a chance to prove himself under ideal conditions, as I suspect he may be dropped a couple more lbs for his latest defeat, which would make him dangerously well treated.
VINCENZO – blotted his copybook with a below par effort in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday, finishing over 23 lengths behind the winner in fifth place. Based on RPRs he performed 18 lbs below his previous best and a holder of a NRNB each way ticket for him in the Plate Handicap Chase at Cheltenham next Tuesday, I am hoping that he is scratched from the race, as I doubt he can bounce back to form in such a short period of time – at least then I will get my money back.
MARINE NATIONAL – has today been scratched for the Champion Chase, which again highlights the pitfalls of antepost betting without NRNB. With a week to go before the Cheltenham Festival, I was quietly confident of at least securing the place return on my 1 pt ew double on OLD STAR PARK for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and MARINE NATIONALE in the Champion Chase, but now I have just lost my 2 pt stake, without either horse running.
However, all may not be lost, as MAJBOROUGH is now generally odds on for the Champion Chase, which may provide me with the opportunity to lay him to win at a shade of odds against on the day to recoup my losses. ,
I still feel that he is a moderate jumper of fences and only ALTIOR has scored during the past decade from 8 runners who started odds on for the race, with many of the losers making jumping mistakes – hopefully MAJBOROUGH will keep up this trend!!
All the best,
Rob
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Not sure how many readers follow trends when analysing races, but i generally tend to use a few of my own to whittle down large fields in an attempt to generate a more manageable shortlist, rather than following trends that identify specific selections.
However, I was notified this week of one specific trend covering races over fences at the Cheltenham Festival which really has taken my interest.
I do not feel that I can share full details of the trend on this thread, as that would be unfair to the person to undertook the analysis and shared the result to subscribers, however it is probably reasonable for me to say that it relates to horses running over fences, who raced last time out over hurdles.
Under certain circumstances these runners are worth backing both to win and each way, especially when additional places are on offer.
This trend doesn’t generate many opportunities, but I have identified 3 potential entries that may be worth following, if the turn up at the festival, namely.
AMERICAN MIKE – has entries in the Ultima, Plate and Kim Muir handicap chases
JAZZY MATTY – entered in the Grand Annual, having won the race last year after racing over hurdles on his previous start
ANYWAY – already mentioned on this thread in relation to the Jack Richards Novice Handicap ChaseI am not inclined to back any of the qualifiers yet, but will consider them ion the day of the race when I can hopefully secure some additional places for my each way investments.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
The final two festival handicaps take place on Friday and are both run over hurdles.
Over the past decade the County Hurdle has become a benefit for either Willie Mullins (5 wins) or Dan Skelton (4 wins), which suggests that their entries need to be looked at very carefully.
With Paul Townend having steered home 4 of Willie Mullins’ winners, with the pair also finishing runner up to the stable’s other winner in the race during this period, it may be worth waiting to see who the stable’s jockey rides, albeit they do tend to get heavily backed once the partnership is known.
My selection at this stage is not going to set many pulses racing, as it is more of an insurance bet than an expectation that the gelding will run in the race.
I have already invested 2 pts (1 pt ew) on ANZADAM for the Champion Hurdle and whilst his recent form has been bitterly disappointing having finished fourth in a couple of Grade 1 hurdles at Leopardstown, I still think that he is capable of being competitive in the Champion Hurdle, if Willie Mullins can find the key to unlock his potential.
However, if he bypasses the main event on Tuesday in favour of an attempt to carry top weight in the County Hurdle, then I want to be on him now, as he is probably the best horse in the race and may well end up being ridden by Paul Townend.
The horse’s main issue this season has been his inability to settle, so perhaps being buried amongst a big field in a race where the early pace tends to be strong will help him settle, if so he could easily outclass the opposition.
0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) @ 12/1 with William Hill.
The final race of the festival is the Class 2, Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle, which tends to be won by a young, unexposed runner who is destined for better things, often over fences.
The list of the last 5 winners is very impressive:
2021 – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS – multiple Grade 1 winner over fences, including 2 Cheltenham Gold Cups
2022 – BANBRIDGE – 3 Grade 1 wins over fences, including a King George VI Chase
2023 – IROKO – fourth in last year’s Grand National and favourite for the race this time around
2024 – BETTER DAYS AHEAD – Grade 2 winning chaser
2025 – WODHOOH – Grade 2 winning hurdler, who is likely to win the Mare’s Hurdle if LOSSIEMOUTH runs in the Champion HurdleUsing a few basic trends, I have whittled the 81 current entries down to a shortlist of 3, after which it is ‘crystal ball’ time trying to envisage their career path over the next few years.
In the end, I have selected KEL HISTORIE who is owned by J P Mc Manus and trained by Willie Mullins, who’s only victory over hurdles from 5 attempts was achieved on his hurdling debut at Cork, but finished runner up in a Grade 2 novice hurdle next time out. Since then he has finished unplaced in three Graded hurdles, but recorded his career best RPR of 137 last time out on heavy ground which was probably not ideal for him.
He is due to race off an OR of 137 on his handicap debut, which seems fair in the context of this race and will hopefully improve if the ground is not too testing.
0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) @ 14/1 with Bet 365.
Betting bank now 69.82 pts (with 25.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
I have now completed my analysis of the 3 handicaps for Thursday, with mixed results.
The Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase appears to be a total minefield, as plenty of the entries have alternative engagements, so it is anyone’s guess what the final field will look like.
I therefore intend to pass on this race for now, but have added one of the entries to my tracker, namely last year’s runner up ANYWAY who ran a fine race at an SP of 125/1.
If the ground is no worse than good to soft, he may be worth an each way bet, but I will be looking for more than 4 places on the day.
The other handicap chase is the Kim Muir for amateur riders, which is often the weakest event throughout the 4 day festival. It is rare that I have a bet in this race, but if I do it tends to be on a runner that is ridden by one of the top Irish amateurs, so much will depend on who is riding which horse.
That leaves the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle, for which I have a shortlist of just 4 entries, of which one has really taken my eye.
RED DIRT ROAD has one outstanding piece of form in the context of this race when winning a Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Sandown by 8 lengths back in February 2025. He was awarded a career best RPR of 145 for that effort, but has since been pulled up twice, prior to finishing fourth (RPR 128) in a qualifier for this race at Haydock on his latest start.
He is due to run off an OR of just 134 in this event, which makes him very well handicapped in comparison to his standout RPR, which suggests that he is likely to prove very competitive if returning to his best form and is worth an each way investment at general odds of 33/1.
0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) @ 33/1 with William Hill.
Betting bank now 71.82 pts (with 23.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Before I get on to documenting my further thoughts in respect of the festival handicaps at Cheltenham, I just wanted to say that I believe the connections of CONSITITUTION HILL have made the right decision to forego further attempts over hurdles in favour of a flat race campaign.
I have added the gelding to my tracker as I hope he will generate some interesting betting opportunities over the next few weeks and months.
My analysis of the handicaps scheduled for the Wednesday of the festival have produced a couple of interesting bets, starting with the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle.
My initial analysis produced a shortlist of 9 possibles from the 85 current entries, at which stage I was less than confident of being able to find anything worth an investment at this stage.
However, on further investigation I believe that JINGKO BLUE offers some value, albeit his selection needs a bit of explaining.
This 7yo gelding was last seen on New Year’s Day when finishing runner up in a moderate renewal of the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle on the new course at Cheltenham. He was awarded a career best hurdles RPR of 144 for that effort, which does not suggest that he is particularly well treated off an OR of 144 for this event.
That said, this will be only his seventh run over hurdles and he has also achieved an RPR of 154 over fences, which suggests that he has plenty of scope to improve over the smaller obstacle.
In addition, his trainer Nicky Henderson has a good record in this race during the past decade, with 2 wins, 2 runners up and 2 fourth place finishes on his CV.
Finally, the 20/1 on offer with Bet 365 appears to offer some value, as he is generally quoted at 16/1 and as low as 14/1 with a couple of major firms.
0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) with Bet 365 @ 20/1.
The next handicap is the Cross Country Chase, which has failed to ignite my interest since my initial selection ANNUAL INVICTUS has not been entered, so I shall look forward to the return of my 2 pts stake at some stage.
The final handicap on Wednesday is the Grand Annual Handicap Chase, which is not a race that I usually get involved with as in my mind it is as slippery as a barrel of eels.
However, I have a candidate this year that I mentioned back in January as an interesting left field contender should he be entered for this specific race.
The general consensus of opinion is that punters should concentrate on young, unexposed runners in most chases, especially over shorter distances, however veteran chasers have a reasonable record in this race.
Step forward, golden oldie EDWARDSTONE, who has now reached the ripe old age of 12, who in his prime won the Grade 1, Arkle Trophy over the same course and distance.
I fully appreciate that his form is waining and his best efforts this year have been achieved over longer distances, but the helter skelter early pace that is normal in this race should suit his hold up style of racing and enable him to run past tired opponents towards the finish.
Perhaps I am letting my heart rule my head with this one, but with William Hill offering odds of 33/1 and allowing me to use my daily odds boost to secure 36.75/1, he has to be worth a small wager.
0.5 pts each way (NRNB 1/4 odds for 4 places) with William Hill at 36.75/1.
Betting bank now 72.82 pts (with 22.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
As my grandfather used to say, it is either a case of great minds think alike, or fools rarely differ – hopefully it is a case of the former!!
I have now completed my initial analysis of the four handicaps at Cheltenham on Tuesday, with mixed results.
The Ultima Handicap Chase has been put on the “too difficult” pile for now, as I have whittled the entries down to an unmanageable shortlist of 14, all of which have reasonable claims and none of them really stand out based on the odds offered by my bookmakers.
I have also scrapped any thoughts for now of being able to find the winner of the National Hunt Chase, which is a shame as it provided me with my best bet of the festival in the guise of my old friend HAITI COULEURS.
However, the Festival Plate which is to be run for the first time on the Tuesday having been a staple of Thursday’s card for many years does offer an interesting opportunity.
I know that we both have already placed a bet on DONNACHA @ 20/1, who has now shortened to a general 14/1, but he currently needs 18 runners to come out to get a run, so we may end up just getting our money back.
Leaving him aside, I ended up with a shortlist of just 4 entries, namely:
BOOMBAWN – very inconsistent and finished 34 lengths behind DONNACHA on penultimate start at Cheltenham
BLOW YOUR WAD – tends to be campaigned at right handed tracks and twice unplaced at Cheltenham
VINCENZO – 4 wins and 3 seconds from 7 Chase start and has twice finished second in similar events at Cheltenham this season
THE ENABLER – has just one stand out effort from four Chase runs in Ireland and has suffered heavy defeats in last 2 racesVINCEZO appears to be the best option, especially as William Hill currently have him at 12/1, as opposed to the 9/1 which is on offer elsewhere.
I have therefore backed him for 0.5 pts each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) NRNB with William Hill and have used my daily odds boost to secure 13.08/1.
Betting bank now 74.82 pts (with 20.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
I will now start analysing Wednesday’s handicaps in detail.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
The weights for the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival have been published today, so it is now time to starting looking at these races for antepost betting opportunities.
The first handicap on Tuesday is the Fred Winter Juvenile Novice Hurdle, which tends to throw up some surprises, as there is not a huge amount of form to go on and often potential outweighs ratings.
However, there are 3 trends that have emerged over the past 8 renewals which all the winners have met, namely:
Trained in Ireland
Official Rated no lower than 122
Best RPR no worse than 8 lbs lower than ORAdopting these trends has left me with a shortlist of just 2 entries:
MADNESS D’ELLE trained by Willie Mullins who hasn’t saddled the winner of this race during the past decade
MODE AVION trained by Gordon Elliott who has saddled 3 of the last 8 winners of this raceMODE AVION also stands out like a sore thumb as he is the only entry with a RPR (134) greater than his OR (133), which suggest that he has around 7 lbs in hand of his nearest rival, which is a fairly good margin in a race where so many rivals have the potential to improve.
He achieved his best RPR winning a weak 4yo handicap by 12 lengths at Fairyhouse on Saturday, so his form is very recent, but without that win and subsequent OR hike, he probably would not have been guaranteed a run, so perhaps his connections have been targeting this race for some time?
In addition, all of his 4 runs in Ireland have been on heavy ground and Saturday was the first time that he hasn’t weakened at the end of the race, so perhaps he is open to further improvement on better ground.
Anyway enough of my marketing spiel for this horse, which I have backed each way (1/4 odds for 4 places) with William Hill (NRNB) @ 20/1.
I will return with further antepost investments as I plough my way through the handicap races.
Betting Bank now 75.82 pts (with 19.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Time to review last week’s graded and group race action.
GRAINNE A CHROI – kicked off proceedings on Wednesday with victory in the Grade 3, Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown at odds of 16/1. She did well to upset the odds on her first run for almost a year, but her resultant RPR of 131, suggests that this was a weak renewal and whilst she is entitled to improve she makes little appeal as a mare to follow in the short term.
BON VIVEUR – defied a significant walk in the market from 4/1 to win the Grade 3, Novice Hurdle at Thurles on Thursday at 14/1 outsider in a field of four. His winning RPR of 131 is nothing special, when compared to the figures produced by past winners of this event and the form appears suspect as they went a funereal early pace, resulting in a sprint finish from just before the penultimate hurdle.
Before discussing the national hunt action on Saturday, I want to cover off the Grade 3, Winter Derby at Lingfield.
SKY SAFARI – showed a good turn of pace to win by a neck in this steadily run race over 10 furlongs, for which she was awarded a career best RPR of 108. Her form on synthetic surfaces now reads 6 wins and a second place (btn a head) from 7 attempts and the nature of this victory suggests that she should be capable of adding further successes in the future at either 1 mile, or 10 furlongs.
Moving on to the national hunt action at Kempton:
LA LUNA ARTISTA – this filly trounced the runner up by 13 lengths in the Grade 2, Adonis Hurdle, but was receiving weight from all her rivals, resulting in a modest winning RPR of 116, albeit this was a career best effort. Whether she would have prevailed had the odds on favourite not suffered a fatal fall is open to debate and I doubt she will be competitive in other open graded hurdles this season, but she may be worth considering in Mares’ only novice chases in the future.
JAX JUNIOR – landed the odds for favourite backers with a comfortable victory against weak opposition in the Grade 2, Pendil Novice Chase. He recorded a career best RPR of 145, which is the lowest winning rating during the past decade, which suggests that he will need to find significant improvement if he is to prevail at the top level.
KLUB DE REVE – was successful in the Grade 2, Dovecote Novices Hurdle for which he recorded a career best RPR of 135. He appears to be progressing well over hurdles and whilst a trip to Cheltenham may come too soon, he may be worth considering if sent to Aintree in April.
Fairyhouse provided the Graded action in Ireland on Saturday.
GRANGECLARE WEST – recorded his first victory since December 2023, when scoring in the Grade 3, Bobbyjo Chase, which is currently the best Grand National trial, with the last 2 winners following up at Aintree. He was awarded an RPR of 168 for his 5 1/2 lengths victory, which should set him up nicely in his attempt to improve on his third place finish in last year’s National. I suspect that he will run well again, barring accidents, but I am not convinced that he become the first 10yo winner during the past decade.
Moving on to Sunday:
POTTERS CHARM – didn’t have to be at his best to record his seventh victory over hurdles from 11 attempts when finishing 2 lengths clear in the Grade 2, National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell. He was awarded an RPR of 148 for this effort, which is 5 lbs below his best figure to date. He will need to improve significantly if he is to secure a second Grade 1 victory, but should remain competitive in lesser events.
BLOOD DESTINY – was successful in the Grade 3 chase over 2 miles at Naas, but his winning RPR of 155 is 5 lbs below his best figure and his inconsistency suggests that he is not one to follow in the future.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
The Fred Winter is a race I want to get involved in, but I would prefer to see the weights before parting with my money.
I see your shortlist includes 3 of the horses who competed in the recent race at Naas, but I wonder whether both MUNSIF and GENEALOGY should also be considered.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
CONSTITUTION HILL provided a welcome winner for the thread on Friday, albeit I feel that little fortuitous as I was very keen on opposing him when the entries were first published.
However, I guess my experience on Friday has highlighted a few points that all punters should follow before placing a bet:
1. Get a feel for the market – I had his chance of winning at 40% and his SP was spot on at 6/4.
2. Be flexible – don’t blindly follow first impressions if the price is wrong, but be prepared to change tack if value exists elsewhere.
3. Monitor special offers to find maximum value for your bet.As for CONSTITUTION HILL’s performance, there is no doubt that it was visually impressive, however I am going to be controversial again, as I was rather surprised that he was awarded an RPR of 103 for his effort at Southwell.
He won comfortably by 9 1/2 lengths and beat the right horses with the second and third home having the best flat form amongst his 12 rivals, with SQUARE NECKER having previously run to an RPR of 87 and GAMBINO coming into the race with a figure of 84.
It is difficult to believe that either of the placed horses improved on their previous best efforts having been beaten so far, so I am inclined to use one, or other of their past RPRs as the standard for calculating CONSTITUTION HILL’s figure.
It is also worth noting that the placed horses were respectively conceding 5 and 7 lbs to the winner.
If SQUARE NECKER is used as the standard, then the winner ran to an RPR of 94, whilst basing the calculation on GAMBINO gives a winning RPR of 93, suggesting that the Racing Post assessment is based more on potential than the bare result.
I suspect that CONSTITUTION HILL is capable of better, but in my opinion he has a fair way to go if his connections decide on a Group race campaign, as the average RPRs required to win a Group 3 over middle distances for horses and geldings aged 4yo, or older is around 113-117, depending on the strength of the race.
Personally, I believe that his performance on Friday has reduced his chance of running over hurdles, as he now has a viable alternative career option and I am fairly sure that his connections will be slightly concerned of the likely negative media response should this well loved gelding suffer a heavy defeat, fall, or worse in the Champion Hurdle.
Anyway, enough of my thoughts, as I am sure the majority of readers will have their own ideas regarding CONSTITUTION HILL.
Betting Bank now 76.82 pts (with 18.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
The weights for the Grand National were unveiled on Tuesday and to be honest there were very few surprises, other than one of my well handicapped chasers, JORDANS appearing to have been let in lightly off an OR of 150 when compared with his career best RPR of 158.
He runs in the BOBBYJO Chase at Fairyhouse tomorrow, which is a strong trial for the National, but is not well treated at the weights, so it will be interesting how he performs, especially as all of his 7 rivals have also been entered for the Aintree extravaganza.
Since the changes to the GN course at Aintree, the big race has gradually become a far classier event, with a high percentage of runners having previously won, or at least performed to a meaningful level in graded events, which means that it is not easy to apply traditional trends to help whittle down the final runners to a manageable level.
I have found it necessary to tweak my trends annually and have do so again this year, but instead of just analysing just the winners of the last few renewals, I have looked at the characteristics of both the winners and any horses that finished within 10 lengths of the winner in the past 7 Grand Nationals, which has given me a reasonable sample size of 25 horses
The subsequent analysis has generated the following trends, which I intend to adopt for this years race:
Minimum OR = 146 – 25/25
No more than 2 previous falls, or unseats – 25/25
Previously recorded a top 3 finish in a Graded Chase , or won a Listed Chase – 24/25
Irish Trained – 23/25
Top 4 finish within last 3 starts – 23/25
Days since last run = 24-63 – 22/25
Previous top 3 finish in a chase over at least 3m 1.5f and/or a Dosage DI of less than 0.75 – 22/25
Previous Chase runs = 6-16 – 19/25
Age = 7-9 years old – 16/25 (all 7 winners)It is far too early to apply these trends to all the entries, as there is plenty of time for things to change between now and the end of the Grand Nationals trials season.
I will return with an indication of how I will be using these trends and my analysis of the likely runners after the close of the Cheltenham Festival.
However, at this stage I would suggest that any readers who are considering ante post bets on the big race should be wary of parting with their money on any runner who is rated lower than 146, any runner who has fallen, or unseated more than twice during their chasing career, plus any GB trained runner who does not meet all of the other trends, as whilst all trends are there to be broken, the results of the last 7 renewals suggest that it is highly unlikely that such runners will either win, or finish within 10 lengths of the winner.
Moving on to a different subject, today is the day that the CONSTITUTION HILL conundrum is played out at Southwell.
Readers of my previous post will probably have gathered that I was not keen on his chances of making a successful debut on the flat and to be honest at the time of writing up my analysis, his odds of 4/6 suggested that he would be available on Bet 365 to lay at a shade of odds against.
My analysis of his chances taking into account the ability of his twelve rivals suggest that fair odds for CONSTITUTION HILL should be around 6/4 to win and 1/2 for a placed finish, which ifs roughly in line with his current odds, so he is definitely not worth laying now that the market has become more realistic.
However, many bookmakers are offering boosted odds for CONSTITUTION HILL today, including Bet 365 who go Evens for a top 3 finish, which is fair compared with my assessment that he has a 66.7% chance of achieving a place.
This poacher has therefore turned gamekeeper and I have therefore placed a 2 pt bet for a top 3 finish at evens.
Betting bank now 72.82 pts (with 18.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Am I the only racing fan who is totally ambivalent regarding whether CONSTITUTION HILL makes his flat debut on the synthetic surface at Southwell on Friday evening?
The amount of press coverage since it was announced by connections of the horse that the plan was run him in a novice event over 12 furlongs at the track has in my opinion been excessive and is likely to intensify still further if he is amongst the final declarations.
In reality, his performance in the race will tell us very little!!
If he wins convincingly, it will just confirm that he is fit and retains his ability to gallop, but that is not his Achilles heal, as his problem over his last 4 races is his lack of concentration when jumping hurdles at racing pace.
In fact, the lack of hurdles and the need to run around 1.25 seconds quicker per furlong to win this flat race could prove detrimental to his future hurdling career, as he may become even more complacent when tackling obstacles.
It is also worth noting that by the age of 9 horses tend to start slowing down and therefore need to step up in trip to remain competitive, albeit they don’t gain acquire additional stamina as compensation, so are only capable of remaining competitive within their inherited stamina comfort zone.
If his connections decide to change tack and reinvent him as a middle to long distance flat horse, then perhaps it his race will provide the ideal first stepping stone, but the fact that he is already 9 years old must be a major negative, as it is very rare for runners of that age to win Group races on the flat.
Perhaps his connections, will instead aim to qualify him for major handicaps, but again his age will be against him, plus he will need to learn how to adapt to running faster than ever before in flat handicaps that are often highly competitive, both in terms of quality and quantity of runners. Let’s not forget that he has never faced more than 8 rivals during the whole of his hurdling career and few of those were capable of winning providing he stayed on his feet.
If he fails to perform as hoped by his connections, then what next?
Only time will tell!!
Perhaps I am being too mercenary, by just thinking about his future from a punting perspective, but at the end of the day, there are probably very few of us who would take such an avid interest in horse racing, if there was no betting and therefore a no opportunity to make some cash, by pitting ourselves against the bookmakers and/or fellow exchange punters.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Nothing to report from a betting perspective since my last post, but here are my thoughts on Saturday’s Graded race winners in the U.K. and Ireland.
ALEXEI – won the Grade 2, Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton despite hating the heavy ground. He was awarded an RPR of 147, for his first victory at Graded level, which is 6lbs lower than his best handicap form, which suggests that we have learnt nothing new about this this outsider for the Champion Hurdle. His entry for the Grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham has generated plenty of column inches and a few tipsters have put him forward as a surprise package for the race, but I struggle to understand the rationale behind this support, as he appears to have a mountain to climb based on his career best RPR of 153, especially at his current odds of 20/1.
THE JUKEBOX KID – was sent off odds on for a weak 3 runner renewal of the Grade 2, Reynoldstown Novice Chase at Ascot and had little difficulty making all to win by 5 1/2 lengths. The fact that he was awarded the same RPR of 144 as he achieved in a Class 3 Handicap Chase on his latest start, suggests that he may be capable of better when encountering tougher opposition, but for now I am inclined to think that he is probably just a progressive handicapper, for whom his chances of further glory in the near future will depend on how he is reassessed for this bloodless victory.
LORD ROUGE – ground out a 1/2 lengths victory in the Grade 3 novice hurdle at Gowran Park, for which he was awarded a career best RPR of 133. He holds no Grade 1 entries at the Cheltenham Festival and has already suffered a heavy defeat at the top level in Ireland, which suggests that he is not ranked highly within Gordon Elliott’s novice hurdle team, so perhaps his future will be as a staying chaser when the mud is flying.
LUD’OR – recorded a career best RPR of 146 for his comfortable 4 lengths victory in the Grade 2, Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock, however the 5 strong field was made up of handicappers, which suggests that this was a very weak renewal and the fact that this was his eleventh start over obstacles indicates that he is likely to struggle in stronger graded events in the future.
DALSTON LAD – continued his progression over hurdles with a comfortable victory in the Grade 2, Albert Bartlett Prestige Novice Hurdle at Haydock. His winning RPR of 136 was a career best effort, but it still leaves him well short of the level required to win an average Grade 1 novice event, albeit he may be of interest in the Grade 1 novice staying hurdle at Aintree, which tends to be a fairly moderate affair.
JONBON – put in a gutsy performance to register his twelfth Grade 1 success in the Ascot Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs, for which he was awarded an RPR of 168. He is now 10 years old and the fact that he only had 1.5 lengths to spare over the waining 11yo PIC D’ORHY suggests that he is unlikely to find any further improvement, especially at Cheltenham where he has a very moderate record. What amazes me is the fact that he has won so many grade 1 races, yet his best RPR is just 173, which suggests that he is nothing special when compared with the top chasers of the past couple of decades, although I concede that he is a very effective “playground bully” when facing moderate opposition, but typical of his ilk he invariably is found wanting when facing stronger opposition. His odds for the Ryanair have shortened, but he has now endured 2 hard races in a row and I suspect that he will struggle especially if FACT TO FILE and/or GAELIC WARRIOR turn up.
IMPAIRE ET PASSE – produced an impressive performance on his belated seasonal debut to win the Grade 2, Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park, for which he was awarded a joint career best chasing RPR of 162. Although the bare figure suggests this was an average renewal of this race, he deserves credit for costly beating a couple of race fit opponents who were well treated at the weights. Having twice won Grade 1 novice chases last year, there is every chance that he will find sufficient improvement to add further Grade 1 victories in the not too distant future. Although he is entered for the Ryanair Chase, that may come too soon for him to recover, but he is unbeaten in 2 attempts in Grade 1 races at Aintree, so perhaps he will skip Cheltenham in favour of the Grand National meeting.
Before I sign off for the day, it is worth noting that IMPAIRE ET PASSE was involved in a recent workout at Punchestown where a group of 4 Willie Mullins trained runners jumped fences at racing speed for 2 miles. Although the runners did not run a finish, the horse that impressed his jockey and trainer most and came home in front was KOPEK DES BORDES, who despite his lack of experience over fences could still provide a stern test for LULAMBA in the Arkle Chase.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Just before I provide thoughts regarding the two Graded races at Navan on Sunday, I just wanted to mention the first race at Naas on the previous day.
At first sight it appears to be just an innocuous 4yo hurdle, which is generally contested by runners who have yet to show enough ability to run in Graded events. However, previous runners in the race have provided the winner of 4 of the last 7 winners of the Fred Winter 4yo Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, plus a number of placed horses at reasonable prices.
Whilst I am not tempted to put forward any suggested selections based on this year’s result at this stage, as much will depend on the handicap ratings which will be allocated by the BHA for runners in the Fred Winter, I have added all 5 contestants at Naas to my tracker and I will certainly be considering them at the festival once the weights have been published.
Moving on to Sunday’s Grade 2 action:
STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT – continued his fine season by winning the Boyne Hurdle which resulted in him being awarded a career best RPR of 153. He seems fairly exposed after 14 starts over hurdles, which suggests that this is probably his level and he will be of interest in future when he encounters bad ground.
OSCARS BROTHER – was an impressive 6 lengths winner of the Ten Up Novices’ Chase, bringing his record to 3 wins from 5 attempts over fences. This was his second victory at Grade 2 level and a career best RPR of 157 suggests that he is capable of further improvement in the future, albeit he may not proved good enough to win the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novice Chase at Cheltenham , if the main protagonists turn up.
Today is likely to be a busy day, as scratchings for 9 races at Cheltenham will be published shortly, together with the weights for the Grand National.
All the best,
Rob.
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