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RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I think you are probably right with your suggestion that our selections for yesterday’s race will lock horns again in the future.
As for whether they will need time to get over their experiences, I would be wary of backing either without them enjoying at least a 50 day break, as they were both pulled up between the penultimate and final fences, which suggests that the had both run their race and were probably exhausted.
As for today’s selections, there should be no issues with underfoot conditions, as I am off to Meydan for the two Group 1 events at 4.25 on dirt and the 5.00 on turf.
The winner of the 4.25 races is highly likely to come from the top 4 in the betting who can be backed at best odds ranging from 9/4 to 5/1. The runner that has caught my attention is IMPERIAL EMPEROR, who finished runner up in this race last year, but has since won a couple of Group 2s at this track and based on RPRs he appears to have improved since last year’s defeat.
Moving on to the 5.00 race, the betting market suggest that this should be a penalty kick for the long odds on favourite OPERATOR BALOO, who beat my selection NATIONS PRIDE by 3 lengths over today’s course and distance. However, I suspect that the runner up is capable of performing better than he showed last time out and is worth chancing to reverse the placings at the current prices.
I have backed both selections in what I hope will prove to be a low risk/high reward double, as follows:
0.5 pts win double with B365 on IMPERIAL EMPEROR @ 7/2 and NATIONS PRIDE @ 11/2 (B365 Bet Boost Odds) which pays 28.25/1
1.5 pts top finish double on IMPERIAL EMPEROR (5 places) @ 1/5 and NATIONS PRIDE (3 places) @ 1/3 which pays a shade under 0.6/1.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Despite keeping a regular eye on the Thyestes market, JORDANS was never offered at odds greater than 12/1, so no bet today.
The finishing times at Gowran Park support the visual impression that the underfoot conditions were attritional, with only 5 of the 18 runners finishing in the Thyestes Handical Chase, with JORDANS joining 9 other rivals who were pulled up.
My impression is that JORDANS did not run too badly, until he got very tired after the second last fence, prior to being pulled up before the final fence, so I still believe that he remains well handicapped and would be of interest in a similar staying handicap Chase, on better ground, assuming that he can get over today’s exercions.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Regular readers will probably remember that I highlighted about a week ago that JORDANS is a well handicapped chaser, who could be a plot horse for the Theystes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park.
Well he is scheduled to run in the race tomorrow and I believe that he is probably the best handicapped runner in the race, but his ability to handle exceptionally testing conditions has to be taken on trust, as his previous form on heavy ground over hurdles in France, is difficult to assess, although both his sire and damsire (dam unraced) have both enjoyed success with their progeny on testing ground.
Joseph O’Brien’s comments regarding the gelding appear to support my thoughts, as he also believes that JORDANS is currently treated to be competitive in this type of race, but has concerns as to whether he will handle the underfoot conditions.
It is also interesting to note that both the Racing Post’s Spotlight and Ten Year Trends tipsters have nominated JORDANS, which is not ideal as I believe he should be a 12/1 shot, which is exactly the best odds on offer, so at present he offers no value and with the support of 2 RP tipsters he could shorten further.
This is a dilemma as I am not keen to back JORDANS without an edge, so will wait until tomorrow morning to see whether I can secure some value and will update the thread tomorrow either way.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Thanks for linking my ramblings to the new antepost thread.
As usual you have asked a very pertinent question and I wish I could provide a definitive answer, but to be honest no top quality races at the Cheltenham Festival, or at other venues throughout the year will be off limits, provided my selections meet all of the following criteria:
1. I must be fairly confident that the selection will turn up for the race, or can be backed non runner no bet, as there is nothing worse in my ethos than not getting a run for my money.
2.. I must be fairly confident that my selections meet has a reasonable chance of either winning, or providing a positive place return, irrespective of which of the other entered runners turn up on the day.
3. I must be fairly confident that the antepost odds and place terms represent value when compared with the likely odds and places on offer on the day of the race.
Hence the majority of antepost bets made so far are on selections, who have just 1 entry at the Cheltenham Festival and have already shortened in the antepost markets.
Which brings me on to the main purpose of this post, which is to provide some thoughts on the entries that were made for the 6 novice events at the Cheltenham Festival which were published yesterday.
I will start with the hurdle races, which despite the large volume of entries proved rather easier for me to analyse.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE – 64 entries
Only 2 entries currently catch my eye as potential winners of the first race at the festival, namely OLD PARK STAR, who I have already commented on at length and backed antepost, plus TALK THE TALK who fell when looking like the winner last time out (not ideal) is also entered in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle.
TURNERS NOVICES’ HURDLE – 94 entries
Just 3 entries have currently made the shortlist, namely LOVE ME TENDER (also entered in the Albert Bartlett), plus SOBER and TALK THE TALK (who are both entered for the Supreme).
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE – 83 entries
My current shortlist consists of 7 entries, all of which are also entered in the Turners, namely CLASSICAL CREEK, FORTY COATS, KICOUR LA, KLIMT MADRIK, LOVE ME TENDER, SANTO SOSPIR and SORTUDO.
TRIUMPH HURDLE – 68 entries
Only 2 names have made the shortlist so far, namely NARCISCO HAS and ONE HORSE TOWN, but the former appears to short in the market to back at this stage, whereas the later could well end up running in the 4yo handicap hurdle at the festival.
Moving on to the novice chases, I found these much tougher to deal with despite the small number of entries, as they produced larger shortlists, plus there are a number of alternative races for which entries have yet to be published (e.g. National Hunt Chase, various novice and open handicaps, etc), which leaves us with a very murky picture.
ARKLE CHASE – 23 entries
My current shortlist contains 7 entries, but of these only 2 entries have no alternative targets, namely KOPEK DES BORDES and LULAMBA, who are both too short in the market, if ROMEO COOLIO turns up on the day.
BROWN ADVISORY NOVICE’S CHASE – 43 entries
There are 8 entries on my current shortlist, but I suspect that all but FINAL DEMAND either have and/orwill be given other options, so this is not a race to get involved in at this stage.
In conclusion, I have no additional selections at this stage, as none of my shortlisted entries meet the criteria at the top of this post, but will review these races again once non runner no bet odds become available.
All the best,
Rob
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
As promised, here are my thoughts on the Graded action from last Sunday:
SALVER – justified favouritism in the Grade 2 novice chase at Windsor, finishing ahead of a couple of rivals that he had previously beaten by further at Sandown in early December, which suggests that he is probably not progressing and is unlikely to score at the top level as a novice chaser.
JADE DE GRUGY – it is difficult to get a handle on what she achieved in dominating this Grade 2 novice chase for Mares at Thurles, as the standard of her rivals was probably the most moderate that I have seen for a very long time. She was awarded an RPR of 147 for her easy 18 length success, which is still 6 lbs shy of her best figure over hurdles and also leaves her plenty to find if she is to be competitive in the Grade 2 mares chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
APPRECIATE IT – recorded a career best RPR of 166 for his second consecutive victory in the Grade 2 Chase at Thurles, but as his 3 main rivals in the 5 runner field were fellow stablemates, it is uncertain as to what he has really achieved. It is admirable that this 12yo has posted his two highest RPRs from 2 races so far this season, but I will not be rushing to back him next time out.
I will now start reviewing the entries for the six Grade 1 novice events at the Cheltenham Festival and will share my thoughts in the next day, or so.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
A few thoughts regarding the graded race winners on Friday and Saturday.
NO QUESTIONS ASKED – appeared to appreciate dropping in distance to 2 miles when winning the Grade 2 novice chase at Windsor on Friday. However his jumping was not great, albeit slightly better than the runner up and a career best RPR of 151 suggests that he has plenty to find to be competitive against the best novices over the minimum distance.
OLD PARK STAR – his performance in the Grade 2 novice hurdle has already been covered in my previous post, but it is worth mentioning that he was awarded an RPR of 152 for that effort, which suggests that at this stage of his career he is roughly on a par with ALTIOR, SHISKIN and CONSTITUTION HILL, who all won the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
OOH BETTY – spang a surprise in a weak renewal of the Grade 2 mares’ hurdle at Ascot, but her career best equalling RPR of 133 on her 24th start over hurdles suggests that she is basically just a handicapper.
JONBON – benefitted from IL ETAIT TEMPS running flat to win the Grade 1 Chase at Ascot for the second year running, but his RPR of 169 was 3 lbs lower than recorded last year. The only other finisher THISTLE ASK was the outsider of the 4 runners and whilst he ran to a career best RPR of 165, he appears to be a few lbs below the top level at this stage, plus he has a tendency to jump to his right, which is a negative at Cheltenham. In my opinion, JONBON appears to be a waining force over the minimum trip, but may be worth considering over 2 1/2 miles, provided he stays away from Cheltenham where he has suffered 5 defeats from 7 attempts.
I will review Sunday’s graded race action later this week.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Nothing stands out in respect of today’s racing, despite the number of quality races on offer.
In light of the current form of Willie Mullins’ runners, I was almost tempted to lay JADE DU GRUGY at Thurles, but she is so far clear of her 5 rivals, that it is difficult to find something to beat her, whilst her stables’ form is inconsistent rather than poor, so it is a case of needing a crystal ball to pinpoint those runners that are going to underperform.
However, I have just placed another antepost bet for Cheltenham.
MARINE NATIONAL won last year’s Champion Chase with ease and appears to face a similar level of competition for the race this time around, as his main market rivals all appear to have issues:
MAJBOROUGH – has jumping issues
IL ETAIT TEMPS, JONBON and SOLNESS – all struggle to produce their best form at Cheltenham
L’EAU DU SUD and THISTLE ASK – appear not good enough to win a Grade 1
QUILIXIOUS – fell in race last year and has not been seen since
SIR GINO – highly likely to run in Champion HurdleAt this stage, odds of 7/4 with William Hill appear more than fair for MARINE NATIONAL to retain his title.
OLD PARK STAR was highly impressive when running away with the Grade 2 novice hurdle at Haydock yesterday and already has a victory over hurdles at Cheltenham to his name, albeit on the new course, whereas the Supreme is run on the faster old course, which should suit this prominent racer.
There are still plenty of opportunities for other contenders to step up to the plate, but history suggests that Nicky Henderson’s top notch novices are notoriously difficult to beat in the Supreme, so the standout 11/4 on offer with William Hill appears to offer some value, especially as there could be a few defections for alternative targets.
I have placed a 1 pt each way (1/5 odds for 3 places) double on the pair with William Hill, who have also allowed me to boost the resultant odds by 9% to 10.12/1.
Bank balance now 90.82 pts (with 8.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
It is not often that I thank my bookmaker, but I will make an exception today, as none of them enticed me to back IL ETAIT TEMPS by offering a worthwhile odds boost and thus saved me a couple of points!!
As for the horse’s performance, he ran flat and to my eye never appeared likely to win, before a tired looking fall at the second last fence, which is another reminder that whilst the form of Willie Mullins’ stable has improved some of his most fancied runners are going missing.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Despite the plethora of good quality races tomorrow, I have struggled to find many opportunities for a bet, except for one horse that is both obvious and even then the bet is contingent on the generosity of the bookmakers who still accept my bets.
The horse in question is IL ETAIT TEMPS in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (3.30 Ascot), who has already twice beaten his main market rival JONBON, including last time out at Sandown, for which my selection recorded the highest RPR awarded this season of 178.
Unfortunately, his current best odds of 4/7 offer no value for a bet, as in my opinion he should be an 8/11 shot at worst.
That said, I strongly suspect that Bet 365 and perhaps at least one of my other bookmakers will offer enhanced odds, probably evens after 9.00 am tomorrow morning, which will be perfectly acceptable.
There will be a maximum stake allowed for each odds boost offered which will determine the size of bet that I can place, so I will update the thread, once my fate is known.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Well, I was spot on with predicting the likely odds as GALAXY STAR was indeed sent off at an SP of 4/1, unfortunately she did not run like a joint second favourite and weakened in the last 2 furlongs to finish a disappointing seventh.
Just a reminder that placing value bets doesn’t necessarily pay the bills in the short term.
Bank balance remains at 92.82 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
GALAXY STAR looks interesting in the Listed Mares’ Flat Race (2.40 Market Rasen).
4yo runners who are close to the head of the betting have an excellent record in this race, which is hardly surprising as they receive 13 lbs from the older mares. Although she was beaten a head by the other 4yo runner in this race on their latest start, GALAXY STAR is now 7 lbs better off, so should be capable of reversing that form this time around. She also comes out best on adjusted RPRs, which suggest she should hold her own against her elders.
I had expected her to be on offer at around 4/1, so was surprised to see her available at 13/2.
I have therefore invested 0.5 pts to win at 13/2, plus 1.5 pts for a top 5 finish at 5/8 with Bet 365 – fingers crossed she doesn’t drift.
Bank balance now 92.82 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Sorry, I missed your latest post regarding the antepost thread yesterday.
Linking my antepost activity on this thread to the new antepost thread would seem to be the way forward, but as I struggle with most modern technology (I can’t even master our TV), may I ask that you do the linking for me?
Whilst writing, I thought it would be worthwhile sharing a couple of what appear to be well handicapped Irish trained horses with readers.
I STARTED A JOKE – OR 126 – RPR 135
I can’t take credit for this one, as Keith Melrose highlighted this Charles Byrne trained gelding in the Racing Post. However, I am amazed that the Irish handicapper has only raised him 5 lbs for his maiden hurdle victory at Punchestown on Sunday.
His ultra shrewd trainer, will almost certainly be devising a plan to target one of the big handicap hurdles in the not too distant future and my initial thought was that he would be an ideal candidate for the Listed handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival over 2 miles in a couple of weeks time, but the trainers comments suggest that he is likely to be upped in trip.
Anyway the gelding has been added to my tracker and I await further developments with interest.
JORDANS – OR 150 – RPR 158
I noticed this chaser when reviewing the early entries for next week’s Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park.
Joseph O’Brien is very much a target trainer, which suggests he has a plan for this classy gelding, who won a Grade 3 and was second in a couple of Grade 1 chases as a novice last year, but has reverted to hurdles for his 2 races so far this season, presumably to protect his handicap rating over fences.
He recorded a career best hurdles RPR of 130 on his last start when finishing 5th in the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown after Christmas, so is clearly in good form, so perhaps the plan will culminate with a run at Gowran Park next week.
Either way, he is another one for the tracker.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
Despite having been sent off at 10/1, which made my 22/1 win bet appear rather shrewd, ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE was well beaten by the two mares at the top of the betting, but at least she was able to finish in third place, which was always the most likely outcome, to provide a return of 2.60 pts and therefore a profit of 0.60 pts.
Bank balance now 94.82 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi folks,
The Mares’ Listed Chase (3.15 Newbury) looks interesting despite there being only 5 runners.
The hot favourite PANIC ATTACK (best odds 1/6) appears to be the proverbial dead cert, whilst the second favourite MOLTO BENE is unbeaten over fences in 2 starts.
However, the runner that has got me interested is ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE, who is rather inconsistent with just a single victory and a couple of placed efforts over fences, but she appreciates good to good to soft ground (career best RPR in chases 127), which matches her closely with MOLTO BENE and puts her well clear of the two rags.
I have therefore invested 0.5 win with Bet 365 at 22/1 BOG (best odds elsewhere 18/1) in the vain hope that she can beat the market leaders, plus 1.5 pts for a top 3 finish at 8/11, which is the more likely scenario.
Bank balance now 92.22 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).
All the best,
Rob.
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