[Robmull]

Hi folks,

There are no major surprises in respect of the entries for the Grade 1 Champion, Mares and Stayers Hurdles at Cheltenham, but the picture is probably likely to remain fuzzy until the final declations for the Championship Hurdle are known on the Sunday prior to the festival, due to both LOSSIEMOUTH and BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD also being entered for the Mare Hurdle.

If one or both of these mares line up for the Champion Hurdle, they would provide the biggest threat to current warm favourite SIR GINO as allowing for the mares allowance of 7 lbs, LOSSIEMOUTH is rated 4lbs superior, whilst BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD holds a very significant 9lbs advantage.

Clearly, things could change between now and then, as all the main protagonists are likely to run again before the festival, but even then we will probably be none the wiser as to the target race for each of these mares.

It used to be so much easier before the advent of the Mares Hurdle!!

At least the Stayers Hurdle appears to be a little easier to analyse, albeit the winning machine WODHOOH is doubly entered in this race and the mares hurdle.

My shortlist for Stayers hurdle is very short, as it contains just 3 of the 29 entries, namely BALLYBURN (has a history of playing up and twice beaten by TEAHUPOO this season), TEAHUPOO (one win in the race, but has started favourite on all 3 attempts) and my antepost selection BOB OLINGER (beat TEAHUPOO fair and square last year).

Having taken 14/1 on BOB OLINGER last week, it is pleasing to note that he is now best priced at 9/1 with William Hills and as low as 7/1 with Bet 365.

As for the mares hurdle, the current betting market is a complete minefield, with the top 6 either holding either entries in the Champion, or Stayers hurdles, or currently running in Novice Chases, of these WODHOOH appears to be the most likely to line up for the mares hurdle, but at 7/4 she offers no value.

I am not inclined to add to my antepost portfolio at this stage.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Here are my thoughts in respect of the winners of graded winners last week.

I’LL SORT THAT proved to be very tenacious in winning the rescheduled Grade 1 Novice hurdle at Naas, maintaining his unbeaten record over hurdles, but his RPR of 144 suggests that this was one of the weakest renewal in the past decade. To be honest, I can’t help thinking that his winning run is a product of the moderate quality of this year’s novices over timbre, rather than his latent ability. Based on the fact that he will probably need to improve another 7 lbs at least to be competitive in another Grade 1 novice event during the Spring, I will be looking to oppose him in such events.

EDWARDSTONE proved that age is no barrier to win the Grade 2 chase at Kempton, but was receiving weight from 3 out of form rivals, of which the odds on favourite failed to complete. Life will be tough for this admirable 12yo going forward as he is clearly not capable of winning a Grade 1 and will have to shoulder a penalty in similar lower graded events, but he could be of interest in a top class handicap (Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival) if the BHA handicapper doesn’t increase his OR much above his current figure of 152.

KAPPA JY PYKE recorded a fair win in the Grade 3 Novice Chase at Punchestown on Sunday for which he was awarded an RPR of 151. That figure suggests that he still has a bit to find with this season’s best novice chasers, but this was only his second start over fences, so may be capable of better, especially around 2 1/2 miles, which seems to suit him for the present.

SOBER took the Grade 2 novice hurdle over 2 miles 1/2 furlongs, but his winning RPR of 141 is nothing special when compared with past renewal of this race, or in the context of this year’s novice hurdle performances. That said, he recorded his best flat form over staying distances and would have found this tactical affair over the minimum distance far from ideal. Although I would wish to oppose him over 2 miles, he would be of interest over staying distances, especially as he has shown that he can quicken off a moderate pace.

I will return later with my thoughts in respect of the latest batch of Cheltenham entries which are due to be published at lunch time today.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I thought I was getting too old to start learning new tricks, but I am finally beginning to warm to some strategic antepost wagering, so would be happy to be involved..

Perhaps the antepost thread should be allowed to run throughout the year, as there may be other opportunities to take early prices outside of the Cheltenham to Punchestown Festival window, including dare I say flat races!!

It is interesting that as far as I am aware none of the major bookmakers have started offering NRNB odds for Cheltenham, which suggests that they are still doing brisk business at standard term, it what is proving to be a fairly open group of races, without many short price favourites.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Although there are a couple of graded novice events at Punchestown today, nothing stands out out as a betting opportunity, so I will pass and try to unravel a conundrum that has been playing on my mind since just after Christmas.

That conundrum is just why INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN remains joint favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, despite producing a couple of shocking performances so far this season?

To be honest I was surprised that he won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham last year and his winning RPR of 182 is a complete outlier, when you look at his other performances over fences.

His overall record in chases is not outstanding being 3 wins from 12 starts, with his next best RPR being a moderate 163, which suggests that based on his other 11 runs over fences he is probably a Grade 2/3 performer at best.

That said, he does appear to run record his best efforts in March/April – 3 wins from 3 attempts, 2 at Cheltenham and 2 at Grade 1, with RPRs of 160, 160 and 182, which suggests that he will improve on what he has done so far this season.

He was ridden by Mark Walsh for both his Grade 1 victories, so his chance of running well at this year’s festival will probably be enhanced if Mark is in the saddle, albeit the partnership could only produce a poor RPR of 128 when well beaten at Leopardstown over Christmas.

It is interesting to note that in both seasons since he started to run over fences, he has improved his RPR by 19 lbs in the Spring when compared with his best efforts prior to the new year.

If he follows the same this year, he is likely to run to a RPR of around 147, which will clearly not be good enough to win the most prestigious chase of the season.

In my opinion, if he hadn’t won the Gold Cup last year, I would suggest that he would be currently trading antepost at 66/1, or even bigger, not the 6/1 best odds that are currently on offer.

The final piece of the jigsaw will be how her performs in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown at the end of this month – last year he recorded his second best RPR of 163, but to achieve a similar improvement on this season’s form he will need a massive uplift of around 35 lbs – not impossible, but probably unlikely.

Based on the above analysis, I would be looking to lay him for a place in the Gold Cup, but unfortunately that is not a market that is available with Bet 365 at this stage.

All the best,

Rob.

However, a 19 lbs

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Laying KALIF DU BERLAIS proved to be profitable, but I would have preferred to have lost my money rather than watch him unseat his rider and suffer fatal injuries – RIP KALIF DU BERLAIS and my commiserations to his connections for their loss.

That said, I have no sympathies for the animal rights protesters who wish to ban horse racing, as they fail to understand that if racing is banned, there will be very little point in continuing to breed thoroughbred racehorses, which over time will lead to many more racehorses being culled and mistreated due to lack of funds.

Most racehorses are well treated and probably live an enjoyable life, albeit there is a small risk of injury and/or an untimely death, but surely that is better than having never been born.

Anyway, I shall now step down from my soap box.

Bank balance back up to 94.22 pts ( with 6 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Although there are only 4 runners lining up for the Grade 2 Chase over 2 miles 4 1/2 furlongs at Kempton which is scheduled for 2.40 tomorrow, it provides an interesting betting opportunity.

The current odds on favourite is KALIF DU BERLAIS, who is a Grade 1 winner over fences, having scored in the 2 mile novice event at last year’s Grand National Festival held at Aintree.

Whilst he won that race comfortably, I felt that he would be worth opposing in the near future and he duly failed to justify favouritism at Exeter on his seasonal debut, finishing fourth, some 23 lengths behind the winner.

I am keen to take him on again tomorrow, as he finished last of 4 runners on his only previous attempt at around 2 1/2 miles, plus his record when racing right handed is 0/3 whilst he has won on each of the 3 occasions he has raced left handed.

Finally, he had the lowest Adjusted RPR of the 4 runners, so will probably need a career best performance and it is 9 weeks since he last ran, which suggests he may have endured a few training issues.

I have therefore invested 2 pts on him not winning with Bet 365 at evens.

Bank balance now 90.22 pts (with 6 pts of antepost bets booked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

CLASSICAL CREEK ran a shocker finishing 51 lengths behind the winner I’LL SORT THAT, so a loss of 2 pts on the day.

Perhaps a pattern is emerging, as both of his wins under rules were achieved when he was able to get an easy lead, whilst his previous defeat came when he was unable to get to the front.

Bank balance remains at 92.22 pts (with 6 pts of antepost bets booked).

[Robmull]

Hi Hopefull,

Congratulations on finding the winner and taking 9/1.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Fingers crossed that Naas passes the inspection tomorrow morning, as there is Grade 1 action at 1.43, namely the Ballymore Novice Hurdle, which is run over 2 miles and 4 furlongs.

This race has been won by plenty of future stars, so it tends to take some winning, albeit this year’s ten strong field have yet to show the same level of form as the previous winners had achieved prior to winning this event.

Although Willie Mullins is responsible for the 2 market leaders, I am wary of the stable’s form and have chosen Gordon Elliott’s first string CLASSICAL CREEK.

His PTP debut victory was impressive (RPR 95) and he also showed strong form in a couple of Bumpers, prior to winning on his debut over hurdles (RPR 135), which suggests that he has the scope to go much further, albeit I suspect we won’t see him at his best until he jumps fences.

Although he offers a little value at 4/1 to win, I am not overly confident as there are plenty of potential improvers in the field, so have invested 0.5 pts win at 4/1 and 1.5 pts for a top 5 finish at 1/3 with Bet 365.

Bank balance now 92.22 pts (with 6 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Sounds interesting and more than happy to assist when required.

Good luck with this project.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Having spent most of the afternoon reviewing the initial entries for the 3 Grade 1 chases at the Cheltenham Festival, I have a couple of take outs to share.

FACT TO FILE has only been entered for the Ryanair Chase, which he won by 9 lengths last year. In my opinion this makes complete sense as although he has won over 3 miles 1/2 furlongs at Cheltenham, that was a fairly slowly run race against moderate opposition, since when he has appeared as a non stayer at the distance.

DINOBLUE has not been entered in any of the Grade 1 chases, which implies that she will be targeted to retain her Grade 2 Mares’ Chase crown, in which case her current best odds of 5/2 appear reasonable.

Both runners appear to hold strong claims in their respective races and as both can be backed antepost at 5/2 (1/5 odds for 3 places) with Bet 365, it is worth placing a 1pt each way double.

Bank balance now 94.22 pts (with 6.0 pts of antepost bets booked).

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A few thoughts regarding the results of last week’s graded races.

KABRAL DU MATHAN – progressive, but was entitled to win Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham, but RPR of 155 was nothing special, plus trainer and jockey both mentioned concerns in respect of him tackling 3 miles at this stage in his career, so I will be keen to oppose him in Grade 1 events over extended trip for the rest of this season.

DINOBLUE – did enough at Fairyhouse to beat two outclassed rivals over a distance beyond her ideal trip. Her winning RPR of 151 was moderate compared with her career best figure of 166, but she is highly likely to dominate graded chases restricted to mares during the Spring. She has strong claims in respect of retaining her Mares’ Chase crown at the Cheltenham festival, but antepost odds of 5/2 offer little value as she has other Grade 1 entries, at present.

HEART WOOD – admirably consistent and won Grade 3 chase at Thurles with authority, but past performances at the highest level suggests that he should be opposed in future Grade 1 chases, but considered for support when talking lesser opposition.

Looking forward to reviewing the first set of entries for the Cheltenham Festival later today.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Having read Tom Segal’s Racing Post “Two For The Tracker” email on Saturday evening, I was pleased to see that he was recommending that readers make note of my TTF selection ANZADAM, despite the gelding only finishing fourth in the Grade 1, December Hurdle at Leopardstown on 29 December.

The gelding ran far too freely that day with Patrick Mullins in the saddle, but looked like a true Grade 1 performer, until tiring in the closing stages of the race, which was hardly surprising as he must have used up plenty of energy during the first half of the race, before pulling 6 lengths clear by the time he reached the third hurdle from home.

If Willie Mullins can either get the gelding to settle, or train him to relax as a front runner, he could prove to be a major contender for the Champion Hurdle, as his career best RPR over hurdles of 159, which he equalled in the Leopardstown race is only 4 lbs inferior to that of the current 6/4 favourite SIR GINO, yet ANZADAM is currently available at 33/1.

The Champion Hurdle is usually run at a strong pace, which should help ANZADAM to settle, so I couldn’t resist having an ante post investment of 1pt each way (1/5 odds for 3 places) with Bet 365, as I suspect that this is his only viable target at the festival and he is likely to be a few points shorter on the day.

Betting Bank now 96.22 pts (with 4.0 pts of ante post bets booked)

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Nothing of interest in the way of selections for today, but I think it worth sharing the following information which may assist everyone when considering bets over the next couple of weeks.

I do not intend to speculate on the reasons why the all conquering Willie Mullins’ stable appears to be suffering a dip in form, based on the strike rates for November and December 2025 of 20% and 14%, respectively.

These are the lowest strike rates seen during the past 5 seasons, albeit some of the stable’s winning stalwarts over the Christmas period, posted career best RPRs, such as LOSSIEMOUTH (RPR 160) and GAELIC WARRIOR (RPR 174).

I suspect that the stable’s strike rates will improve at some stage during the the next month or so, but I will be wary of backing any of the stable’s representatives until I see some positive evidence.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I feel as if I have dodged a bullet with LUCKY PLACE, as I totally misread the market by taking 9/2 last night, thinking that he would end up around 3/1, whereas he drifted to as big as 15/2, before shortening to 11/2 at the off.

In light of the significant drift I had visions of a complete blow out for the selection, but at least he scrabbled a third place finish for a small profit of 0.22 pts, so no damage done in the end.

Bank balance now 98.22 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

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