[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your kind comments.

I am not a lover of antepost betting and would normally probably wait until the day of the race to get involved, but 14/1 on BOB OLINGER was worth a punt, especially as the Stayers’ Hurdle is almost certain to be his only target at the Festival, so no need to consider which race he will run in and his NRNB odds will probably be around 8/1.

I had a thorough look at 4 races for tomorrow, but could only find one horse worth a punt.

LUCKY PLACE won the Relkeel Hurdle (2.35 Cheltenham) last year and whilst he has disappointed twice over fences this season, he should appreciate the return to hurdles and represents some value against the odds on favourite, so I have gone with 0.5 pts win @ 9/2 (Boosted Odds), plus 1.5 pts for a top 3 finish @ 10/21, both with B365.

Bank balance now 96 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Me again!!

I don’t usually get involved in antepost betting, but I couldn’t resist investing 1 pt each way (1/5th odds for 3 places) on BOB OLINGER with Bet 365 who have boosted his odds from 10/1 to 14/1 for the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Although he will be officially 11 years old tomorrow, he has not been overly raced, having just 20 career starts. He has won on each of his previous visits to the track, including the Stayers Hurdle last year where he beat the current favourite TEAHUPOO and recorded a career best RPR of 166.

His seasonal debut at Leopardstown on Sunday when finishing second behind TEAHUPOO was very promising as although he was beaten 7 lengths, he recorded an RPR of 160, which is his best effort away from his beloved Cheltenham.

Fingers crossed that he remains sound and makes it to Cheltenham, where I can see him galloping to the line, in a race where many of his main market rivals have questions to answer regarding either stamina and/or track suitability.

Bank balance now 98 pts.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It is quite a while since I posted to this thread, as I have been thinking through why the system turned from profitable to loss making in such a short period of time.

During my absence I have been paper trading the system selections, which have continued to show little in the way of encouragement.

The fact that the system was profitable throughout the first 6 months of the season, quickly dipped once the better quality horses started to participate in Irish Maiden hurdles, thus making them more competitive.

This suggests to me the system should be used seasonally from the beginning of May to the end of October, when the racing is far more mundane and the state of the ground is more consistent.

I therefore intend to wait until next May before reactivating the system.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have also enjoyed working with you guys as punting is normally a solitary experience and would very much like to be involved in another project.

As the new boy on the site, I don’t feel that it would be appropriate for me to suggest any ideas to be tackled by the team as I appreciate that a great deal of time and effort has been used to develop and maintain the Irish hurdles database and I guess that you will be keen to extract the maximum bang for your buck.

That said, it might be interesting to try something different where we all start from close to scratch in the hope that we all learn some new techniques?

Just a thought and I will be happy to participate whatever the chosen direction of the group.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I have taken a similar approach, but I am pushing my lunch a little with bigger odds, purely because I had a few small free bets with B365 which I have used for a bit of fun, as follows:

12.03 Navan

WAR ROOMS & ATLANTIC GAMBLE (10 places for each) 1 pt @ 4/1

12.35 Navan

COYOTE SPIRIT & GENUINE ARTICLE (10 places for each) 1 pt @ 3/1

Then to top it off 1/2 pt on all four (again 10 places) in effectively at bet builder double @ 21/1

Good luck.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

To start the ball rolling here are my shortlists:

12.03 Navan

1 – WAR ROOMS
2 – ATLANTIC GAMBLE
3 – PARKLAND
4 – LE MOULIN ROUGE
5 – LAZARE DE STAR
5 – SENSE OF OCCASION
7 – LET IT SETTLE
8 – LORD TOBIN (in case LET IT SETTLE doesn’t run)

Interesting that only one of my shortlist has previous hurdling experience, namely LE MOULIN ROUGE, so will have to take on trust that the others can transfer their flat, bumper or PTP form to hurdles on their first attempt.

12.35 Navan

1 – GENUINE ARTICLE
2 – COPACABANA
3 – BURROWS DRIVE
3 – COLCANNON
5 – I STARTED A JOKE
6 – COYOTE SPIRIT
7 – CODED WELDER

At least only 3 of these are making their debut over hurdles.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I hope all is well with you guys.

May I suggest that we have a look at both the 12.03 and 12.35 races at Navan on Saturday?

Both are maiden hurdles which are scheduled to have 26 runners, so 10 places on offer, suggesting that we should provide shortlists of our top 7 rated candidates in order of preference, as this will give us a bit of leeway against nasty surprises.

Let me know what you think.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Sorry to hear about your electrical issues at home.

These bet builders are proving rather frustrating, as at first sight it appears relatively easy to find 2 or 3 selections to finish in the top half of the race, but there always something that ends up scuppering our bets.

This is especially annoying when we often reach a consensus in respect of one or two big priced candidates that end up running well.

I am wondering whether producing shortlists equal to the maximum number of places on offer is the appropriate way forward, as you may recall in one of my earlier posts that I mentioned a method of predicting likely finishing positions based on each runners position in the shortlist, e.g. top of list likely to finish in top 4, fifth in list likely to finish 5th to 8th, etc.

If we were to adopt this approach we could reduce the size of the shortlists, by limiting them to 3 positions less than the maximum places on offer, e.g. 14 runner race – top 4 rated, 18 runners – top 6 rated, 20 or more runners – top 7 rated.

We can then, dismiss the obvious candidates and concentrate on any outsiders which at least 2 of the group have shortlisted.

We may only get 1, or 2 selections from each race, but we could always perm these in cross race bet builders.

Just a thought – worth a go?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well that was close and a surprise, as I thought Suds had pipped me to the post, after LOVE ME TENDER was declared a non runner and ROMEO COOLIO was successful.

Thanks for putting up the free bets Mike and a great idea that Suds should be awarded one for just missing out.

Plenty of time for the other participants to catch up, as this competition is very much a long distance race and not a sprint.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I am not sure that I can offer much for the handicaps, but here are my lists for the two Maiden Hurdles:

12.05 Clonmel

1 – LOYAL PRAETORIAN
2 – MYSTIC MALINA
3 – BARRAKILLA VAGE
4 – WATTY SHOW
5 – JUSTATAN
5 – MISTYBURN
7 – KOFINO
8 – KANPAI

1.35 Clonmel

1 – PARNELL STREET
2 – BOEDIC ( Reserve)
3 – THAT DANNY FEELING
4 – MINELLA EMPEROR
4 – SPINNINGAYARN
6 – LADY LENA (Reserve)
7 – BECTIVE BRIDGE
8 – ECO PETE
8 – JISKO DU BREM
10 – BALLYREDINKINGSTON
10 – COOLADDI

I have provided a top 11 for this race as my second a sixth choices are reserves and therefore may not get a run.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I can probably provide a top 10 for most of these races, but would suggest that we list them in our order of preference, as the lowest rated may just be making up the numbers.

Perhaps Mike has hit the nail on the head and we should try thinking the “unthinkable” by discounting the most likely candidates and aiming to get a few less fancied selections to finish within the maximum number of places on offer.

Perhaps this is one of those projects where the value and profits are made by accepting a low strike rate, but occasionally hitting the jackpot?

I remain confident that between us we can find a solution to this conundrum.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

No problem- I hadn’t even noticed he was running until I viewed the results.

Great to see that this month’s competition will be going to the wire – good luck Suds with your selections.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Just noticed that you missed JIMMY DE SEIUL – 11.36 Fairyhouse today from your list of runners over the weekend, who was a late replacement on my list.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I didn’t see you post while typing up my thoughts.

It will be interesting to see which approach, works – or whether we both blow out.

Good luck.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have just permed the following runners using a free bet balance with B365 to test the water.

SKYLIGHT HUSTLE – 7 places
CASTERLY ROCK – 7 places
MINELLA DIAMOND – 8 places
DYSART DOLOMITE – 8 places
RONY HAS – 9 places
READY TO ROAD – 9 places
EYETRAP – 10 places
IT’S NOT HIS FAULT – 10 places

Not a full perm, but have tried to provide some level of insurance fro just 5 lines, as follows:

Line 1: SH + CR + MD + RH @ 3/1
Line 2 : SH + CR + DD + RTR @ 13/5
Line 3: SH + CR + DD + EYETRAP @ 15/4
Line 4: SH + MD + DD + INHF @ 5/2
Line 5: CR + MD + RH + RTR @ 15/2

Just a bit of fun.

All the best,

Rob.

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