[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I agree with Mike that this is not an easy race to price up, which is also shown by the fact that not all bookmakers appear with odds on the Racing Post website and those that have do so show some marked discrepancies.

The VALUE CALCULATOR analysis has also thrown up some strange results, as follows:

SKYLIGHT HUSTLE – 11/4
MINELLA DIAMOND – 10/3
DYSART DOLOMITE – 15/2
CASTERLY ROCK – 10/1
IT’S NOT HIS FAULT – 10/1
LOHENGRIN – 33/1
RONY HAS – 33/1
TOP COEUR – 33/1
MAX MERIDIUS – 45/1
READY FOR ROAD – 45/1
TAKE STOCK – 33/1
EYETRAP – 66/1
EMESTERAYE – 90/1
SNEDDY EDDIE – 135/1
RAVENDARK – 500/1
RECKLESS – 500/1
SOCK IT TO ME – 500/1
SOLDIERS LADY – 500/1
VENTUREVARGO – 500/1
WALK IN THE CLOUDS – 500/1
COUP D’ESSAI – 500/1
IT WILL DO RIGHTLY – 1000/1
ROAD TO THE SEA – 1000/1
WESTANDTOGETHER – 1000/1

Clearly the VC figure for RAVEDARK is massively out of kilter with his chances of winning, but I am not too perturbed by this or any of the other anomalies, as I feel that the suggested odds for most of the main protagonists are reasonable and we should not forget that we are looking for top finish candidates in our bet builders, rather than trying to identify the overall winner of the race.

If their odds hold up overnight, I will be keen to include MINELLA DIAMOND and IT’S NOT HIS FAULT in permed Bet Builders as they both appear to represent value at the top end of the market.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

My shortlist is as follows:

Likely top 5 finishers

CASTERLY ROCK
MINELLA DIAMOND
EYETRAP
DYSART DOLOMITE
SKYLIGHT HUSTLE

Likely top 10 finishers

RONY HAS
READY TO ROAD
TAKE STOCK
EMESTERAYE

Will provide my tissue odds this evening.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Great mind think alike (or fools never differ) as I was also considering perming bet builders to provide some level of insurance against the rogue performance.

Perhaps we should also “Dutch” the bet builders, based on the odds for each, which will give us different stakes for each line, but will ensure the same return for each bet?

MISS KINGSTON was a major surprise based on my analysis, but I now realise that she was ridden by a 7 lbs claimer, so perhaps she wasn’t the complete outsider that I took her for, based on her lower weight.

I think I need to experiment with adjusting my ratings for the shortlist based on weight to be carried.

Not sure whether my method of converting flat RPRs will work for you, but may be worth trying adding 35 to the flat rating to get a representative hurdle figure?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I totally agree, between us we are so close to finding the key to these races.

Just a thought and I know that this suggestion goes against all of your swashbuckling principles, but perhaps it would be worthwhile setting our target a little lower by placing our joint selections in bet builders using the maximum places available, at least until we have perfected our strategy.

Does anyone fancy tackling the Maiden Hurdle to be run at Fairyhouse (2.25) on Saturday – should provide a real challenge – 25 runners, plus 3 reserves?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The VALUE CALCULATOR analysis has produced the following tissue odds:

MUSIC OF LIFE – 9/4
JASMINE PEARL – 7/2
GANGSTER GRANNY – 11/2
DABOYA – 17/2
CROHAN LADY – 18/1
VICTORIA KESIA – 28/1
DANCING DAME – 28/1
FRONTIER ROSE – 55/1
MISS GEORGINA – 55/1
BALLINGURTEEN – 100/1
ANGELS HALO – 200/1
DICTIONARY CORNER – 200/1
LOST FEATURES – 200/1
LUCY ALPINE JANE – 200/1
MISS KINGSTON – 200/1

Indicative odds for the reserves are:

WALK IN THE CLOUDS – 100/1
DELL BOYS DIVA – 200/1
LEONARDS CHOICE – 200/1

Unfortunately, I will not be around much tomorrow, so it is likely that I will be able to post any suggested bets based on the alternative markets.

However, based on both my shortlist and the suggested value identified by the VC analysis, the two I would be keen to support are MUSIC OF LIFE (currently available @ 11/4) and GANGSTER GRANNY (currently available @ 8/1), whereas I would be very wary of both BALLINGURTEEN and MISS KINGSTON, who both appear to be significantly overestimated by their current odds.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Based on previous renewals of this Mares’ Maiden Hurdle, I have a rather lengthy shortlist of runners that have either already performed to the level required to achieve a top half finish, or have the potential to do so, as follows:

MUSIC OF LIFE (RPR 108 – hurdles)

DABOYA (RPR 108 – hurdles)

GANGSTER GRANNY (RPR – 93 hurdles, but flat RPR of 75 suggests she is capable of better over hurdles)

VICTORIA KESSIA (RPR 75 – flat, suggests may be capable of being competitive, if taking to hurdles)

JASMIN PEARL (RPR 101 – hurdles)

MOODY GIRL (RPR 101 – hurdles) – ran poorly at Tramore on Tuesday, so likely non runner in this race

CROHAN LADY (RPR 101 – INHF)

MISS GEORGINA (RPR 96 – hurdles)

DANCING DAME (RPR 94 – INHF)

FRONTIER ROSE (RPR 93 – INHF)

I have tried to place them in some sort of order based on their past achievements and would suggest that the top 5 are the most likely to trouble the judges at the finish.

I will return with the VALUE CALCULATOR tissue odds tomorrow evening.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well that result just about sums up the current fortunes of the selection for this system.

MOODY GIRL was another one to weaken quickly as if something was wrong to finish a remote seventh of the 8 runners, despite the fact that on paper she had ticks in all the right boxes.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I will provide my usual analysis.

It appears that the races at Thurles have been shuffled, so the timings are different – please confirm that you wanted to play the Mares Maiden Hurdle, which was originally scheduled for 2.32, but is now set to be run at 1.57?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just one selection today.

12.35 Tramore – MOODY GIRL – 11 pts for 5 places @ 4/15

Fingers crossed!!

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Having completed a full analysis of the systems performance over the past couple of days, I have concluded that there is nothing inherently wrong with the idea, albeit there are a few issues that I need to address, which I hope will improve the results going forward.

Firstly, I need to concentrate on the type of races which play to my strengths, which means ditching NHF races, Chases and handicaps, all of which have generated results that have not met the 90/10 targets.

Secondly, reducing the number of potential selections, should increase the amount of time I have to properly assess my remaining selections, which will hopefully reduce the risk of making poor choices.

Perhaps, less is more, so I will tentatively return to the fray at Tramore tomorrow, assuming that I can identify a worthy selection, or two.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Another disastrous day for the system, as whilst the first 3 selections had no trouble generating small returns, both ROCKY’S DIAMOND (fourth) and GRANDY LANE (sixth) failed. resulting in a loss of 12.7 pts.

At this stage I don’t know what has gone wrong – 5 losers in 6 days is catastrophic when betting at very short odds and I need some time to think things through, otherwise I will soon have wiped out all the profits that had accrued before last Thursday.

I have therefore decided to take a “time out” to enable me to reconsider my selection strategy, as I am convinced that the system targets are achievable, provided I get the selection criteria right.

I will return to this thread once I have a plan, but in the meantime will continue to participate on the site.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Irrespective of the 16 pt anomaly, this has been a very profitable “ridiculous idea”, which clearly shows the benefit of going against the crowd.

Well done and please try not to lose it all during the last few weeks of the year!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

There may be something in your theory and I would be interested in seeing your conclusions once you have run and analysed the data.

I always try to identify selections that are either proven on or are bred to handle the prevailing underfoot conditions, but like you have noticed that extremes of going can on occasions generate what appear to be unfathomable results.

That said, the first of the losers appears to have just had a bad day running 10 lbs below his best RPR which he achieved over the same track and trip on the all weather, whilst the second loser was pulled up having been badly hampered at the first hurdle, which is just a couple of unfortunate instances, which are impossible to foretell in advance.

Yesterday’s loser was just a last minute dubious call by yours truly, as her credentials for handling heavy ground were borderline at best, but she seemed to be OK in the lead until head, after which she weakened as if something was wrong with her – I guess it is unlikely that I will ever find out the reason for her poor effort, but will steer clear of her in future.

Fingers crossed for today’s selections!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I think I may have strayed into panic mode today, as I am feeling a bit shellshocked after 3 losers in less than a week, which has caused me to take ridiculously short odds on the top 3 of the 5 selections at Punchestown today.

11.30 – COMBS – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/14

11.30 – QUINTA DO LAGO – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/14

12.00 – SANTO SOSPIR – 11 pts for 10 places @ 1/16

1.05 – ROCKY’S DIAMOND – 5 pts for 3 places @ 1/3

3.20 – GRANDY LANE – 10 pts for 4 places @ 1/10

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As the old saying goes – “pride comes before a fall”.

For the first time since I started this system back at the beginning of May, two successive selections have failed with KOM TU VOUDRAS finishing only tenth.

Having viewed the coverage of the race, I would not be surprised if the mare suffered a minor injury, as she weakened so quickly after losing the lead, but perhaps I am just clutching at straws, when in reality it was a case of poor judgement on my behalf as I decided at the last moment to ‘play safe’ on the favourite rather than betting on my intended selection TWO PAIR.

Still a loser is a loser for whatever reason and at least BANDE ORGANISE finished third for a 0.8 pt return on investment, resulting in a loss for the day of 10.2 pts.

Without further soul searching I will draw a line under today and start the necessary processes to hopefully claw back the profits that have been lent back to the bookmakers over the past couple of days.

Fingers crossed!!

Rob.

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