[Mike]

Hi
I knew there would be questions over this thread and please do post on it if you like. There is no such thing as a silly question especially when it come to exchange betting. The first query was on exactly why I had laid some horses and backed others and then why only the win part. Here is the original post containing my initial bets.

Oneforgonzo 4-1 11-4
Rockbrook 5-1 11-1
Hunting Brook 11-2 10-1
Milk Market 6-1 11-4
Gabriel Ranger 8-1 10-1
Mr Sundancer 9-1 33-1
This means I have taken an each way punt for 5 places on these
Mr Sundancer @ 33-1
Hunting Brook @ 12-1
Rockbrook @ 12-1
I will now put up a few win lay options on Mr Sundancer, Milk Market and to a degree Oneforgonzo.

When we formed our market (our prices in bold) any horse that we thought could finish in the top four was listed. If the price we had forecast was lower than the bookies price we believed we had a value bet therefore we backed them each way making sure we had the extra place (always look for an edge). We then had the option that we thought the bookies had to short a price on the favourites so we then looked to lay them (back them to lose). We only backed them to not win the race as we felt they could quite easily get a place. We also then laid the win part of the bet on Mr Sundancer as we thought at best he would place not win.
Unfortunately nobody took up the bet on the two favourites but we did get half the win bet matched on Mr Sundancer. Rockbrook then became a non runner so we then took an each way bet on Gabriel Ranger.

I will try this again soon and hopefully we can find a way of making it easier to explain exchange betting when we get all our bets matched so that you can see what is happening.  🙂

[Mike]

Hi
We had a couple of placed horses today in the Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 thread the results were as follows
Hunting Brook @ 10-1 Placed
Gabriel Ranger @ 10-1 Placed
Mr Sundancer @ 33-1 lost
Rockbrook 5-1 11-1 Non Runner
This gave us a small profit on the day and got us hopefully back on track. 🙂
We will have a look at the following tomorrow at Downpatrick but in the extra markets and back on this thread.
5.05 Paddy Elvis 20-1
5.05 Little Hero 100-1
6.10 Hardysonofdan 33-1
6.45 Inatosha 33-1

[Mike]

Hi
I have just been awaiting the full result before updating and am feeling pretty chuffed with the result. With the obvious exception of Hunting Brook not managing to hold on for the win we had both of our full each way wagers placed in the top 4 and got both of our lay bets beaten. 🙂 Mr Sundancer disappointed but we did manage to get half the win part laid so reduced the loss there. I can see this throwing up a lot of questions and will await the queries before going over the final post mortem for todays “Ridiculous Idea” . 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Well I could not get any other bets matched which is a bit disappointing and means we go back to the drawing board for now but we will try again soon. As for todays race it is due off shortly and if nothing else we will find out how our selections and more importantly our price structuring holds up. Noble Talent and Arabian King have been big market movers but I could not have predicted those. I see no reason to change my market selections and with Rockbrook being anon runner we will go with our back up option which was Gabriel Ranger @ 10-1. It would be nice to see our lay’s Milk Market and Oneforgonzo get beaten and our remaining selections get in the top five.

[Mike]

Hi
We have seen very little action on the exchange markets overnight and the only interest shown was in the lay on the win part of Mr Sundancer but it is early days and we will check again once the non runners are declared.
Gabriel Ranger @ 10-1 is the only one we have not dabbled with yet and had the race been a shorter trip we would have gone all in. However we will keep an eye on him as he is on our to follow list and if he gets the trip could be the surprise package here. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Rather than repeat the posts we are trying a new option out to replace the loss of revenue on our beloved each way extra wagers (which were unceremoniously removed from our grasp) on the Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 thread. We will be looking to go with the each way selections dependent on whether we get them matched on the exchange.
We will update these during the day so please use the link above if your looking for a punt.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
It has to be worth a punt especially with the rollover so here goes
NY Knicks -4.5 to beat IND Pacers @ 20-23
OKC Thunder -5 to beat DAL Mavericks @ 10-11
Real Madrid to beat Bayern Munich @ 19-20
Oxford to draw or win against Peterborough @ 21-20
Stormers -14.5 to beat the Dragons @ 10-11
Edinburgh -25.5 to beat Zebre @ 10-11
The acca is just over 50-1 and we will go with our usual trebles as well, ditto with the lottery numbers. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Well that went reasonably well as the bookies prices were averaging as listed below in bold
Oneforgonzo 4-1 11-4
Rockbrook 5-1 11-1
Hunting Brook 11-2 10-1
Milk Market 6-1 11-4
Gabriel Ranger 8-1 10-1
Mr Sundancer 9-1 33-1
This means I have taken an each way punt for 5 places on these
Mr Sundancer @ 33-1
Hunting Brook @ 12-1
Rockbrook @ 12-1
I will now put up a few win lay options on Mr Sundancer, Milk Market and to a degree Oneforgonzo.

I know this is a little confusing but hopefully I will be able to explain it post by post but first have to see if anyone matches my initial trades.

[Mike]

Hi
After Custers Mistake when on to win it was a double edged sword for us as it was a cracking win bet for us and would have made an ideal trade. But obviously had we traded we would have dropped a 33-1 winner for a small secure profit. However we have adjusted the idea somewhat and will try this out tomorrow. We have attempted to form our own market in the 5.40 at Tipperary tomorrow and will highlight six horses who we will be looking to trade dependent on there opening odds primarily with bet365 and Sky bet.
Oneforgonzo 4-1
Rockbrook 5-1
Hunting Brook 11-2
Milk Market 6-1
Gabriel Ranger 8-1
Mr Sundancer 9-1
We are looking in the main at these two bookmakers as they are the most likely to offer the extra places to help pull this new “Ridiculous Idea” off. The 6 horses listed above are the ones we feel most likely to fill the top 4 places which is likely to be the normal places on offer in a 16 runner handicap.
The thing with these ideas is that things have to fall in place early doors so we need to have the above listed runners realistically in the top half of the market to start with so that means squeeky bum time till 6pm.

 

[Mike]

Hi
Touch of the nears today as Trade Master lost fifth place by a short head on the line but unfortunately that’s a second consecutive day without a win which although it does not happen that often is not good news. 🙁
We have nothing on for tomorrow which is probably a good thing as at present, we are suffering a bit without our beloved decent priced each way extras 9 and 10 place options and are scratching around for options.

[Mike]

Hi
We came unstuck with both bets yesterday but not by much as Chancer Dancer was only one place out of the money. This still leaves us in a tight spot as the each way extra betting markets is rapidly drying up but I guess it was bound to happen if the companies were losing money on them.
We have spotted a couple of shouts over at Ballinrobe today which are as follows
4.45 Trade Master 14-1 but we have gone 10-1 for 5 places
5.20 Sayitfirst 16-1
5.50 Ag Obair Go Crai 14-1 but we have gone with 9-1 for 6 places
Sayitfirst is a reserve but if running and a claimer is booked for the ride we will be looking to go in for 5 places.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
It was a good start when the Clippers basketball game came in followed your Rugby bet on the Northampton game. Unfortunately it went downhill after that but on the plus side we did have a result on the lotto ticket to the tune of £30 so it was pleasure to lose the competition this week. As you know the small wins go towards the running of the competition but how about as its a rollover this Wednesday we run a bonus competition. ?
If you put a bet up I will fill in the blanks and we will re-use the same numbers. ?

[Mike]

Hi
With no each way extra markets in either race we will stick with the wagers we have placed in the 2.10. We have thought this would be the case for some time but such is life. 🙁

[Mike]

Hi
Been a quiet couple of days without a bet but we will have a dabble in the extra markets today over at Down Royal.
1.35 Garrick Painter 66-1
1.35 Zero Fighter 66-1
With the two above the best option at present is 33-1 betting without both Mordor and Le Coq Hardi. We will probably have a dabble but are just waiting to see if we can get a better option when the each way extra markets are put up this morning.
2.10 Up And Out 12-1
2.10 Chancer Dancer 12-1
We will take both of the above @ 15-2 for 4 places betting without both Benjis Benefit and Rightfolksplease.

[Mike]

Hi
Jetara came second behind Ballyburn which counted as a win as we backed him without Ballyburn but unfortunately Ascending was knocked around a bit at the second last and was eased up shortly afterwards.
In fairness Ascending was unlikely to win but could have placed but obviously the double went done. 🙁
We have nothing for today at present and it is never a good idea to be hunting a bet if they are not obvious so we will give today a miss which more or less brings the jumps season to an end. There area few meetings on next week but the volume of wagers usually eases up this time of year.
For those who are desperate for a bet Storm Heart at 13-2 or Highwind at 33-1 in the 4.50 at Punchestown are on the radar but betting without the favourite/s for Highwind would be the best option.

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