[Mike]

Hi
We got Step out and Paddy Elvis placed but Bigz Belief faded into 5th on the run in when we needed 4th so we only picked up the one double and dropped a point on the day. 🙁
We are still struggling to find bets but we will try this one at Ballinrobe tomorrow.
5.30 Baltic Bird @ 14-1 for 5 places

[Mike]

Hi
With no Premiership, League 2 Football, Irish NH meetings or United Championship Rugby on this week we will give the competition a miss. But hopefully will be back next week. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
We have spotted a possible wager for tomorrow over at Downpatrick
5.05 Step Out @ 2-1
5.35 Bigz Belief @ 12-1 for 4 places
6.05 Paddy Elvis @ 4-1
We will take these in three each way doubles. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Apologies for the typo this morning wrong horse wrong race but I was a busy boy and the season is over.
Hypersonic Missile placed which means we dropped a few pennies on the day. 🙁 There is nothing of note that I can see until maybe Friday but even then the pickings are slim. We will look out for a bet but…. ?

[Mike]

Hi Suds
The Ospreys won the bet only missed by a couple of points and you stuck your head above the trenches and took part that’s the bit that matters. 🙂 We have done well with the beat the lotto this year and although we have shortened up the odds on our selections compared to previous years it is still a difficult task.
Here is an example using last weeks selections. (Maths calculation assistance from Rob)
Prices of selections 10-11, 20-23, 12-5, 10-11, 1-1 and 2-1. As you will know a 1-1 shot has a 50% of winning (in theory). However to obtain the chance of the accumulator coming in you have to multiply the percentages together.
The percentage chance of the listed prices come out as follows.
52.38%, 53.48%, 29.41%, 52.38%, 50% and 33.3% which equals less than a 1% of the accumulator coming in. 🙁 I think we do very well considering the odds). 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
We are looking at a totally different outlook for the site for 2025 and will be dabbling with new ideas before we settle on the new layout. Here is a trial idea for Punchestown today.
1.25 Omniscient 9-4
1.55 Jhentong Enki 6-1
2.28 Scott Lang 11-2
3.58 Glenriver 6-1
4.28 Spellacys Cross @ 10-1 for 5 places
5.00 Hypersonic Missile @ 7-1 for 6 places
The highlighted bets are as usual the ones we are backing or have already backed as we anticipate a move in the markets.

Spellacys Cross is making his handicap debut and is interesting at the trip. Hypersonic Misslie has been waiting for the ground and that could make all the difference today.

We have been asked several times over the years to list more selections and will dabble with the idea but we are not primarily a tipping site and it is very time consuming going over a whole race card. 🙁

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Ooops.. With so much going on this weekend I forgot to check the fixtures…lol. Thanks for the heads up and look forward to a bumper last weekend. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
That was close to be a clean sweep again this weekend we only missed the Ospreys game by two points
Ospreys -15 to beat Dragons @ 10-11 (Ospreys won 13) lost
OKC THunder +4 to beat DAL Mavericks @ 20-23 Won
Xander Schauffle to win the PGA @ 12-5 Won
Man City v West Ham BTTS @ 10-11 Won
Arsenal v Everton BTTS @ 1-1 Won
Man Utd to beat Brighton @ 2-1 Won
The competition will be difficult to run now as with a lot of the sports we rely on closing down for the season we will be scratching around for bets. But we will see what we can do. However this years run of selections has been profitable and the best to date so many thanks to those took part. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi Suds
I make that 5 wins from 8 bets this weekend 🙂 so I am guessing that puts you on course for an all or nothing last set of fixtures next weekend. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Not the grandstand finish we were looking for but as it is the last weekend of the Premiership we have been concentrating on the footy. Hence there will be a few blank days on this thread until the start of next week.:(

[Mike]

Hi Suds
It just us again but such is life. Here are the squeaky six. 🙂

Ospreys -15 to beat Dragons @ 10-11
OKC THunder +4 to beat DAL Mavericks @ 20-23
Xander Schauffle to win the PGA @ 12-5
Man City v West Ham BTTS @ 10-11
Arsenal v Everton BTTS @ 1-1
Man Utd to beat Brighton @ 2-1

The lottery ticket numbers will be 4,7,16,23,31 and 50 as usual

[Mike]

Hi
Unbelievably Jhentong Enki was also declared a non runner and that left us with just Futurm Regem who duly ran well but could only get fifth place we needed fourth which more or less sums the week up. 🙁
We are a tad puzzled where the Wexford meeting came from tomorrow and we were not prepared for it, but we will throw in a cheeky each way double as there will be no more racing for three or four days.
3.25 Shean Glory @ 7-1 for 4 places
4.00 Western Zara @ 4-1 for 5 places

[Mike]

Hi
Brave Fortune is now 1-1 favourite but we can now lay him to lose for 7 points @ 10-11 (you can only take the lay price that is offered which can be less than the market price) which means if he now wins we lose 6 points but will make our 10 points from backing him this morning so we still win +3 points. If he loses we win our 6.36 points on the lay bet we just placed but lose our 4 points where we backed him to win this morning and still make a 2.36 point profit (less any 5% commission that may be taken).
Now I hear the cry what happens if they both lose. God only knows my head exploded about two hours ago. 🙁
Only joking you have still backed both to lose so it does not really effect and the result of the race in reality becomes a non entity. But where’s the fun in watching the race is the real question. ? The fun part to me would be to get a safe position on Brave Fortune and leave part of the bet to run but that would defeat the point of the exercise I suppose. 🙁
But as experiments go this one was successful but you would have to be a really serious punter with nerves of steel, plenty of cash and huge kahunas to play this game every day (so count me out). 🙁
I will redo the maths and someone will be bound to correct me if I have it wrong but it looks good to me as when you place bets on the exchange it list all your liabilities on each horse for you. We have devised our own data base which we may add to this to show you how it works (eventually).

[Mike]

Hi
We have been keeping an eye on the markets and it appears we may have been lucky and got our position on the race correct. Brave Fortune is now favourite and Gaucher has drifted. With this in mind we now have backed Gaucher to win for 7 points @ 11-4 on the exchange.
This may seem ridiculous as we backed him to lose this morning but bear with us. If Gaucher now wins we would win 19.25 points minus the 15 we laid for him to lose this morning so we make a +4.25 point profit. If he loses we lose our 7 points but make a +3 point profit from our 10 point for him to lose. So its a win win situation on Gaucher either way. If he wins we get a 5% deduction (on winning bets) as a commission to betfair so that reduces our winnings to 18.29 minus the 15 points we laid against him so its now only a +3.29 profit.

[Mike]

Hi
We finally had a race today which suited us down to the ground it was the 6.10 at Kilbeggan and we started to place our bets. We had taken the position using our speed ratings etc that Brave Fortune would win the race and we had assumed that Gaucher the then 6-4 favourite was over priced.
Having taken that position we backed Brave Fortune @ 85-40 to win and laid Gaucher @ 4-6 to lose. Using the 10 point profit/loss target stake to avoid to many fractions this left us in this position.
If Brave Fortune 85-40 wins we win our target +10 points but if it loses we lose 4.71 points the amount we had to back to obtain our 10 point target 4.71 divided by 40 x 85 = +10
If Gaucher wins 4-6 we lose 15 points as we had to lay it we become the bookmaker and have to pay out the person who took the bet. So to make 10 points we had to take the shorter part of the odds so its 10 divided 4 x 6 = 15.
Now you can see the problem if Guacher wins we also lose our 4.71 points (the win bet on Brave Fortune) so our total loss on the race would be 15 + 4.71 = -19.71. However if Brave Fortune wins we also get our 10 points profit from laying Guacher to lose (as he will obviously have lost for Brave Fortune to have won). This means we now have a +20 profit if the result goes our way.
Should any other horse win the race we lose our 4.71 the win bet on Brave Fortune but gain 10 points from Gaucher losing so would still make a profit of + 5.21.
We are now left watching the markets to see if our pricing up of the race was correct. ?? We want Brave Fortune to shorten in price and Gaucher to drift out in price.

[Author]

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