[Mike]

Hi
Suds first effort had the market side of things more or less spot on but Koo Star could not get into sixth place. This has inspired us to look into the allowances as this has happened before. As for the thread new member “Hopefull” has been sending us his notes on the flat/AW and just for fun I have had a dabble with a race he has been working on and come up with Mojomaker at 11-1 for 5 places in the 7.00 at Southwell. Bear in mind this is the dreaded flat (which would not be our specialist subject on mastermind) and the bet is just my take on the race as I just had to have a play with the figures….lol.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
I had the faith and took the 19-2 in the early markets for 6 places on Koo Star but she could go either way now. The next step I guess after tomorrows race would be to reassess the weight allowances we are giving as Koo Star has both the mares allowance and a 7lb claim.

[Mike]

Hi
Well Carson Young could not quite pull of the miracle win at 25-1 for the Beat The Lotto (£) thread but he did us proud here eventually finishing second at 55-1 for a nice +10 point profit.

 

[Mike]

Hi Suds
That worked out really well with Mayo Shirocco (the PTP runner) being the only one to split up the top five of your market. I am guessing you will be looking for Koo Star as a possible extra markets wager being as it is the odd one out at a whopping 100-1.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Finally taken the plunge (nice to see) and all your own work, whats the worse that can happen….lol. I have just wasted two weeks working out that trying to predict Flat, PTP and NH ratings to Hurdle ratings is nearly impossible so I do see the issue with Beautiful Chaos.
As for our going back to our standard ratings and putting Beauforts Storm up on the thread for 6 places embarrassingly he nearly wins the race coming second at 40-1 to the odds on Spasiba.
He was available at 22-1 without the eventual winner or 12-1 without both Spasiba and Jersey Des Brosses (which may have been taken…lol) but I played to safe for the thread. 🙁 It will take a while to live that one down.

[Mike]

Hi
I will be posting my lines soon which will fill in the gaps so if anyone has a line to pop down please post the entry by tonight so that we can finalise the entries.

[Mike]

Hi
We will try and get back on track today by reverting to our hurdling database and go back in with Beauforts Storm in the 12.20 at Naas 50-1 but we used him for 7 places last time so the 12-1 for 6 places looks the best option today.

[Mike]

Hi
I think we can conclude from today’s results trying to convert Flat times to correspond to possible hurdle times is really not going to work as two of the Flat converts (who were well fancied) either didn’t jump well or ran everywhere but where the were supposed too. I fully appreciate one of the Flat runners Cashdale Lad won the race but he was the exception to the rule. The NHF tables we will adjust but were reasonably happy with and we will continue to try an adjusted conversion rate on that topic.
As for the thread we will go back to the hurdle ratings where we were having some success but we still have six weeks to go before all of our data base selections will hopefully come to fruition. In the meantime we will be finalizing our Ten To Follow thread and keeping tabs on the other competition threads.

[Mike]

Hi
Just a reminder that for the time being we are only dealing with the competition threads and you find this weekends Rugby selections on the Beat The Lotto (£) thread.

[Mike]

Hi
Well we probably have another Ballinboe Blaze on our hands in the 2.12 at Gowran Park as Light of Life 200-1 has shown some promise time wise. We would like to see this one finish in the top 9 but are not holding our breath…lol.
The 1.37 at Gowran Park is the main reason for posting here today as it will form the test ground for our new ratings table. We have added 5% to the flat times and 2% to the NHF times. Here are the results in the order for the first time hurdlers that we would like them to finish in.
Le Bugiste Flat
Status Green Flat
Cashdale Lad Flat
Pearl Of Australia Flat
Miss Corby NHF
Madam Jess NHF
Harrys Dream NHF
Dream Diamond NHF
This obviously shows a huge bias to the Flat horses having there first hurdle run but that is what our initial figures show us. Of the horse with experience of hurdling we would like to see the Kazakh D’Arthel and Kaikoura beat the other hurdlers home with Morell River hopefully to out run the 66-1 on offer.

[Mike]

Hi
Just for fun we are going to try the five Rugby internationals and a wild golf wager this weekend.

Wales -6 to beat Fiji @10-11
Australia -3 to beat England @ 11-10
Argentina +3 to beat Italy @ 10-11
Japan +35 to beat France @ 10-11
South Africa -8 to beat Scotland @ 1-1
Carson Young to win the World Wide Technology Championship @ 25-1
The lottery numbers will be the usual 4,7,16,23,31 and 50

[Mike]

Hi
As our Chris is not available this weekend we have deserted him for Carson Young in the World Wide Technology Championship. We have taken 55-1 for 10 places (active members bets) and although 4 shots off the lead just for fun we have also put this one the Beat The Lotto (£) thread @ 25-1 to win it outright.

[Mike]

Hi
In the 12.55 I was suspicious we had made a mistake with Ballinboe Blaze and he did not run that well but it was run at a ridiculously slow pace over the first mile and as we have checked our figures and can see no error it could just have been one of those days. Ad Caelum and Rut Daniels finished together in fourth and fifth place respectively which is about right. Unfortunately the three at the head of the market all ran to form which means we only got the one return which was Ad Caelum. We would have got both as returns had we backed without both favourites but as it turned out the 21-2 for five places on Rut Daniels would have been the best option.
We will try a couple of races Saturday as yesterday was another so so day on the new test sheets but this idea might be a step to far.

[Mike]

Hi
Thanks Em we now have the Valheim line which will be as follows

The Jukebox Man
Sounds Victorious
Constitution Hill
Strong leader
Ballyburn
Firefox
Jonbon
Djelo
Fact To File
Galopin Des Champs

[Mike]

Hi
Firstly a quick thank you to new member “Hopefull” who has sent some extra speed rating options over to us which will give us some food for thought. Whilst speed ratings are only one piece of the equation to finding winners knowing your selection is fast enough is always a good starting point. Now the obvious thing is to use a set of ratings from a specialist company (which can be expensive) or go with a free set of ratings ie as listed on the Racing Post. But unless dealing in handicap races often as not there will be no ratings available hence our attempts over the last week or so try converting Flat, NHF and PTP for comparison to our Hurdle ratings.
After today’s races we will print out our conclusion’s as we will then have a bit more information to work with then and we will put down a very basic calculation for your reference. As for today’s races we now have options on Ad Caelum @ 13-2 and/or Rut Daniels @ 18-1 both without Lady Rose Hackett.

[Author]

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