[Mike]

Hi
Smug does not even come close to how we feel at the moment 🙂 Now although we only put up Jolie Jewel at 8-1 for the site it does not mean we did not have a great day at the office. 🙂
As for the site bets they ended up just +4 points up with Jolie Jewel’s win as the other three lost. Had we taken either of last nights other selections in the first race they would have placed 🙁
However the claim to fame was that Jolie Jewel actually won at 50-1 so even if as some of us had done taken the 33-1 with BOG (best odds guaranteed) it was a better day than expected. 🙂
As for tomorrow we head over to Killarney for the following mixed bag of tricks
1.00 Tic Tac Toe 100-1
1.00 Dylans Choice 200-1
1.35 One Big Boum 33-1
1.35 Jocker Du Moulin 40-1
2.45 By Your Side 20-1 but we gone in at 13-1 for 5 places
2.45 Set Point 20-1
We will be looking for the extra markets again for most of these if we take them on and will update the thread tomorrow

[Mike]

Hi
Usual disappointment in the prices of the each way extra markets of late but we will go with the following options over at Cork today.
2.15 Ryhme And Thyme 33-1 but we have gone with 35-4 for 8 places
3.25 Jolie Jewel 33-1 but 8-1 for 7 places
3.55 Gordons Aura @ 14-1 for 6 places
5.05 Aghmorough Bridge 33-1 but we have gone with 12-1 for 9 places

[Mike]

Hi
Mixed batch of results yesterday the double became a single when Hardysonofdan became a late non runner. Paddy Elvis placed without the favourite/s so we wiped our nose there. The each way single on Hardysonofdan was a void bet so money back there and Inatosha unfortunately came 7th we needed 6th so a bit of wasted day but more of a disappointment for the effort put in than anything else. 🙁
We will be looking at Cork today which we slowly update during the day. It’s a lovely day outside for a bit of gardening and the markets are slow coming up this morning. Here is the first option.
2.15 Happy me 25-1
2.15 King In Love 33-1
2.15 Ryhme And Thyme 33-1
All of the above we will be looking to back without the favourite/s or preferably in the extra markets for 7 places or more.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Not to shoddy with Wednesday’s selections we had 5 out 6 Win 🙂
NY Knicks -4.5 to beat IND Pacers @ 20-23 Won
OKC Thunder -5 to beat DAL Mavericks @ 10-11 (lost)
Real Madrid to beat Bayern Munich @ 19-20 Won
Oxford to draw or win against Peterborough @ 21-20 Won
Stormers -14.5 to beat the Dragons @ 10-11 Won
Edinburgh -25.5 to beat Zebre @ 10-11 Won
This puts us well ahead in the competition again but also gives us a few quid for a side bet. ? How about we try out the new points band idea on your Rugby thread. ? I would suggest doubles and an accumulator that would come to 15x doubles and throw in the accumulator as it comes to over 2000-1 at present odds…lol. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi Suds
We still have the last one running and are already on the next one…lol. But we just had to throw that last one in.
Just the two of us again tonight so here goes. 🙂
Ospreys +24 to beat Leinster @ 1-1
Haydock 3.15 Lark In The Morning @ 5-2
BOS Celtics v CLE Cavaliers Over 211 points in the game @ 10-11
Luton to win or Draw against West Ham @ 1-1
Crystal Palace to beat Wolves @ 11-8
Chelsea to beat Nottingham Forest @ 1-1
The lottery ticket numbers will be 4,7,16,23,31 and 50 as usual.

[Mike]

Hi
We have taken Paddy Elvis betting without Big Stage and Nouvotic @ 5-1 and Hardysonofdan betting without Going live and Gone For Tea @ 14-1 in an each way double.
We have also gone with Hardysonofdan @ 21-2 for 6 places (Little Hero is interesting at 12-1 for 6 places)
Inatosha we have gone in with at 15-1 for 6 places but for those who are looking for another “Custers Mistake” the 33-1 for 4 places still on offer is very tempting. Its just a question of whether you believe the yard has just been waiting for the ground to firm up before running him in his first handicap.

[Mike]

Hi
I knew there would be questions over this thread and please do post on it if you like. There is no such thing as a silly question especially when it come to exchange betting. The first query was on exactly why I had laid some horses and backed others and then why only the win part. Here is the original post containing my initial bets.

Oneforgonzo 4-1 11-4
Rockbrook 5-1 11-1
Hunting Brook 11-2 10-1
Milk Market 6-1 11-4
Gabriel Ranger 8-1 10-1
Mr Sundancer 9-1 33-1
This means I have taken an each way punt for 5 places on these
Mr Sundancer @ 33-1
Hunting Brook @ 12-1
Rockbrook @ 12-1
I will now put up a few win lay options on Mr Sundancer, Milk Market and to a degree Oneforgonzo.

When we formed our market (our prices in bold) any horse that we thought could finish in the top four was listed. If the price we had forecast was lower than the bookies price we believed we had a value bet therefore we backed them each way making sure we had the extra place (always look for an edge). We then had the option that we thought the bookies had to short a price on the favourites so we then looked to lay them (back them to lose). We only backed them to not win the race as we felt they could quite easily get a place. We also then laid the win part of the bet on Mr Sundancer as we thought at best he would place not win.
Unfortunately nobody took up the bet on the two favourites but we did get half the win bet matched on Mr Sundancer. Rockbrook then became a non runner so we then took an each way bet on Gabriel Ranger.

I will try this again soon and hopefully we can find a way of making it easier to explain exchange betting when we get all our bets matched so that you can see what is happening.  🙂

[Mike]

Hi
We had a couple of placed horses today in the Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 thread the results were as follows
Hunting Brook @ 10-1 Placed
Gabriel Ranger @ 10-1 Placed
Mr Sundancer @ 33-1 lost
Rockbrook 5-1 11-1 Non Runner
This gave us a small profit on the day and got us hopefully back on track. 🙂
We will have a look at the following tomorrow at Downpatrick but in the extra markets and back on this thread.
5.05 Paddy Elvis 20-1
5.05 Little Hero 100-1
6.10 Hardysonofdan 33-1
6.45 Inatosha 33-1

[Mike]

Hi
I have just been awaiting the full result before updating and am feeling pretty chuffed with the result. With the obvious exception of Hunting Brook not managing to hold on for the win we had both of our full each way wagers placed in the top 4 and got both of our lay bets beaten. 🙂 Mr Sundancer disappointed but we did manage to get half the win part laid so reduced the loss there. I can see this throwing up a lot of questions and will await the queries before going over the final post mortem for todays “Ridiculous Idea” . 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Well I could not get any other bets matched which is a bit disappointing and means we go back to the drawing board for now but we will try again soon. As for todays race it is due off shortly and if nothing else we will find out how our selections and more importantly our price structuring holds up. Noble Talent and Arabian King have been big market movers but I could not have predicted those. I see no reason to change my market selections and with Rockbrook being anon runner we will go with our back up option which was Gabriel Ranger @ 10-1. It would be nice to see our lay’s Milk Market and Oneforgonzo get beaten and our remaining selections get in the top five.

[Mike]

Hi
We have seen very little action on the exchange markets overnight and the only interest shown was in the lay on the win part of Mr Sundancer but it is early days and we will check again once the non runners are declared.
Gabriel Ranger @ 10-1 is the only one we have not dabbled with yet and had the race been a shorter trip we would have gone all in. However we will keep an eye on him as he is on our to follow list and if he gets the trip could be the surprise package here. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Rather than repeat the posts we are trying a new option out to replace the loss of revenue on our beloved each way extra wagers (which were unceremoniously removed from our grasp) on the Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 thread. We will be looking to go with the each way selections dependent on whether we get them matched on the exchange.
We will update these during the day so please use the link above if your looking for a punt.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
It has to be worth a punt especially with the rollover so here goes
NY Knicks -4.5 to beat IND Pacers @ 20-23
OKC Thunder -5 to beat DAL Mavericks @ 10-11
Real Madrid to beat Bayern Munich @ 19-20
Oxford to draw or win against Peterborough @ 21-20
Stormers -14.5 to beat the Dragons @ 10-11
Edinburgh -25.5 to beat Zebre @ 10-11
The acca is just over 50-1 and we will go with our usual trebles as well, ditto with the lottery numbers. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Well that went reasonably well as the bookies prices were averaging as listed below in bold
Oneforgonzo 4-1 11-4
Rockbrook 5-1 11-1
Hunting Brook 11-2 10-1
Milk Market 6-1 11-4
Gabriel Ranger 8-1 10-1
Mr Sundancer 9-1 33-1
This means I have taken an each way punt for 5 places on these
Mr Sundancer @ 33-1
Hunting Brook @ 12-1
Rockbrook @ 12-1
I will now put up a few win lay options on Mr Sundancer, Milk Market and to a degree Oneforgonzo.

I know this is a little confusing but hopefully I will be able to explain it post by post but first have to see if anyone matches my initial trades.

[Mike]

Hi
After Custers Mistake when on to win it was a double edged sword for us as it was a cracking win bet for us and would have made an ideal trade. But obviously had we traded we would have dropped a 33-1 winner for a small secure profit. However we have adjusted the idea somewhat and will try this out tomorrow. We have attempted to form our own market in the 5.40 at Tipperary tomorrow and will highlight six horses who we will be looking to trade dependent on there opening odds primarily with bet365 and Sky bet.
Oneforgonzo 4-1
Rockbrook 5-1
Hunting Brook 11-2
Milk Market 6-1
Gabriel Ranger 8-1
Mr Sundancer 9-1
We are looking in the main at these two bookmakers as they are the most likely to offer the extra places to help pull this new “Ridiculous Idea” off. The 6 horses listed above are the ones we feel most likely to fill the top 4 places which is likely to be the normal places on offer in a 16 runner handicap.
The thing with these ideas is that things have to fall in place early doors so we need to have the above listed runners realistically in the top half of the market to start with so that means squeeky bum time till 6pm.

 

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