[Mike]

Hi
As we have been doing reasonably well of late we are going to add in another little calculation regarding the conversion of Flat, PTP and NHF times to Hurdle times. The reasoning should be apparent as because we are targeting Hurdle races a fair proportion of these are Maiden races which include either unraced horses or horse switching from one code to another which makes it nearly impossible to concoct a set of Tissue Odds.
We are looking at the 1.00 at Down Royal on Saturday to have a dabble and in particular will be expecting Harry’s Legacy to be well supported. Although ridiculously early to be forming markets our early indications would suggest that the following horses will head the market.
Harry’s Legacy
Cutthewire
Yarraman Makarrata
Grey Fable
Garrick Painter
Romeo Coolio
Should this be the case the interesting runner from our point of view would be Wayside Lady who if appearing at the bottom of the market, we could well be interested in. Please bear in mind we do not actually know which horses will even run on the day let alone the odds and going etc but it could be a very interesting experiment on the day.

[Mike]

Hi
I believe Clarence (Suds) and Mgame (G) will probably pick there own TTF lines this year but our resident Vikings Choncc and Emyr will be picking a competition line for the “Valheim” team so here are the lists if anyone else is having a punt. We are having a change of tactic this year and targeting the monthly prizes but there is everything to play for and you might get lucky.
It is simple enough pick one from the first 8 lines and two from line 9 (this ensures they do not all run against each other all season).
Line 1. Three Card Brag/Quai De Bourbon/Jango Baie/The Jukebox Man
Line 2. Jeraboam Machin/Sounds Victorious/Jalon Doudaries/Regents Stroll
Line 3. Constitution Hill/Lossiemouth/State Man
Line 4. Teahupoo/Strong Leader/Brighterdaysahead
Line 5. Majborough/Flooring Porter/Ballyburn
Line 6. Firefox/Sir Gino
Line 7. Grey Dawning/Gaelic Warrior/Jonbon
Line 8. Ginnys Destiny/Djelo/Dysart Enos/Burdett Road
Line 9. Il Est Francais/Fastorslow/Galopin Des Champs/Corbetts Cross/Fact To File/Gerri Colombe
Any lines we enter will not be entered until November 10th so we can allow for late non runners in the competition due to injuries etc.

[Mike]

Hi G
I have had worse days…lol. The database appears to be paying its way now and whichever way you went today you would have come out either +10.8 or +19.2 points up. The data base has sparked a bit of interest lately and I will re-post the core calculations again for those that missed them first time around. As for the Ten To Follow I have already organized a pool of horses ready for the competition and will post them some time this week.

[Mike]

Hi
We have two options this morning as Betfair are offering Miss Maxfort at 9-1 betting without Kazakh D’Arhtel. Whereas Skybet are offering 16-1 for 4 places so it’s a case of you pay your money you takes your chances.

[Mike]

Hi Sudsie
Strangely the race was not shown on bet365 and for the life of me I could not tell you why he drifted out to 500-1 (unless he played up) but it made my day. Although our 75-1 bet missed out by one place for me it was the bet of the weekend as it went along way to justifying our work on the ratings. No one fancied Mackenstownsupreme yet our ratings put him up as worth a punt.
As for the day Stay Gold Placed the double went down and in a similar vein to Mackenstownsupreme our other long shot Ravelli also placed sixth one off the wager and was another unfancied runner at 50-1.
Therefore although we dropped a couple of points for the first time this week for me it was the best day of the week.
As for tomorrow we head back to Wexford and those looking for a bet could try another each way double on Kakakh D’Arthel 7-4 in the 1.10 and Dream Once More 6-1 (4 places) in the 2.10.
We will be looking to back Miss Maxfort 14-1 in the 1.10 but without Kazakh D’Arthel when the markets are published.

[Mike]

Hi
We have had a look at both races and with two stand out but short priced runners selected we have gone with a cheeky each way double on the following.
2.17 Marcus Furius @ 3-1
2.50 Keep Kool Co Co @ 5-2
We have a possible issue with our speed rating program as it highlighted Mackenstwonsupreme 150-1 last night at and has highlighted Ravelli in the 2.50 as another possible outsider punt for betting in the extra markets. This is very rare and probably a glich but at 22-1 betting without both Paul Collins and Keep Kool Co Co we just have to go in (just in case).
nb. As a footnote to the above post we have just checked the above calculations and can find no errors and the only thing that would have changed would be that with Arctic Lane now being a non runner in the 2.17 this would bring Stay Gold into the equation but at 11-1 for 5 places.

[Mike]

Hi
Both Seskin Flash and Beauforts Storm placed in the top 7 which made for another little profit for the thread and Seskin Flash by managing to come fifth behind both the favourite’s also would have been a reasonable shout.
We are starting to get over confident now and will be doing two races both at Wexford tomorrow namely the 2.17 and the 2.50 and will post our thoughts tomorrow. But interestingly for those who like to take a wild punt once in a while Mackenstownsupreme currently 150-1 is available at 75-1 (Betfair) betting without both Marcus Furius and Fleur In The Park.

[Mike]

Hi
As a footnote to this thread we would like to thank a new member “Hopefull” who has sent some useful information on course times and statistics to us. We will cherry pick the Irish Course Information and compare it to ours. For those members (I can see nine at present) who have yet to post do not be afraid…lol. The site is just for fun but hopefully full of useful information and tips. We do not use your real names unless authorized by yourselves and by posting you become an active member and can join in the competitions for free.

[Mike]

Hi
We are queuing to get on here today as we update the sheets…lol. As an update to yesterdays post we can go in this morning with Beauforts Storm @ 10-1 for 7 places and Seskin Flash at 9-1 for 7 places. For those who have the faith or like a riskier wager 14-1 and 12-1 are available betting without the favourite’s.
Please do remember that all of our speed ratings will really come into effect in January when when the age bandings change and we will then have ratings for over 90% of the 4, 5 and 6yo’s Irish Hurdlers that run in 2025.

[Mike]

Hi
Another reasonable shout as Final Flutter placed fourth and as Newtown Rambler won it we get paid out on the place part of the bet for another small profit. We put up our four which duly filled the first four positions home and we also indicted we fancied the favourite to get beaten which it did.
We are looking at the 3.03 at Galway and here we think its more or less a match between Sporting Glory and Addragoole we have taken Sporting Glory in our Beat The Lotto (£) competition.
As for our value wager/s we like the look of Beauforts Storm 33-1 and Seskin Flash 28-1 but once again we will be looking for 6 places or a bet without both of the aforementioned horses which should end up being clear favourites.

[Mike]

Hi
We had the usual two from six last week with Leinster and the CHI Bulls obliging but will hope to go one better this week with the following.
Munster +8 to beat the Sharks @ 10-11
Nicolas Echavarria to win the ZOZO Championship @ 19-4
Brentford to beat Ipswich + BTTS @ 21-10
Galway 3.03 Sporting Glory @ 8-11
PHI 76ers -5.5 to beat TOR Raptors @ 10-11
Red Bull to have the fastest pit stop in the Mexican Grand Prix @ 1-1
The lottery numbers will be the usual 4,7,16,23,31 and 50

[Mike]

Hi
Yesterdays race worked out relatively well and would have kept us out of the poor house and we will try the same trick again today in the 3.10 at Sligo.
Caman Eileen (TS 99)
Newtown Rambler (TS 85) (22.64)
Will Wilde (TS 64)
Final Flutter (TS 44) (22.05 to 21.09)
This time as we are looking for value we take Final Flutter @ 12-1 betting without both Artic Lane and Newtown Rambler.
Once again we have a very short priced favourite by way of Artic Lane who is unrated having never jumped a hurdle in public and as opposed to Tareze yesterday I think this one is beatable.
Drumcliff Bay 16-1 has a decent rating on our books but has not run for a while so watch for market moves and finally Heading South 66-1 although a big drifter is starting to look tempting for 6 places.
As I am due my comeuppance so this probably means Arctic Lane will win by a country mile and Final Flutter will come stone last. But such is life…lol.

[Mike]

Hi
Well that went well enough as we highlighted Whispering Hopes and Kilbarry Ce Ce for the main race and Kilbarry Ce Ce came second at 18-1 so we would have cleared a small profit on those two Whispering Hopes just ran out of steam and finished fifth. Our other selection the 100-1 shot Shing Shilla who we wanted for 8 places duly finished 7th @ 21-2 so again we came out with a small profit.
We will be switching over to the Speed Ratings Irish Hurdlers thread for a while and will be looking to continue dabbling with converting NHF flat times to possible Hurdle timings.

[Mike]

Hi
We will try and use our latest test race to show you how the world and its mother can all come to different speed ratings and why some people just don’t believe in them. Just bear in mind racing is all about opinions and feel free to form your own just please don’t criticize other peoples. Constructive solutions, notions and ideas are always welcome but be respectful. 🙂
The race we are looking at is the 3.03 at Clonmel today.If you looked at the Racing Post Top Speed ratings and listed them by their ratings they would be as follows.
Kilbarry Ce Ce (TS 92) (23.30)
Ad Caelum (TS 91) (23.35 to 23.59)
Milanway (TS 83) (23.46 to 23.62)
Sallap (TS 77) (23.81)
Shing Shilla (TS 77) (22.02 to 22.28)
Whispering Hopes (TS 74) (22.85 to 23.06)
Koo Star (TS 73) (24.52)
etc etc
The rest have a TS (Topspeed Rating) of 66 or less. We have listed these along with our ratings just as an example of varying opinions. With the Racing Post ratings there’s are rated high to low and are worked out professionally by a large team of computer savvy experts. Mine are the highlighted ratings and are rated low to high with a tolerance range and are done by a now retired old man who struggles with excel…lol.
Now the Racing Post ratings are used along with other factors to achieve an RPR rating which is why Tareze who has the highest RPR is the odds on favorite.
We have a similar system to achieve our personal tissue odds ( Forming Tissue Odds ) but we use our speed ratings to look for value selections at what we believe to be inflated or value odds. For today’s race opinion see yesterdays Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 thread.

[Mike]

Hi
Now as you can see from the list printed we have shuffled the Racing Post list around to put the two with both Trainer form and higher Prize Money returns to the top of the list.
Cottesloe Sunshine £ T
Tareze £ T
Whispering Hopes £ (T)
Kilbarry Ce Ce
Ad Caelum
Milanway
Now apart from the difference of opinion on the actual odds we have predicted the top six in the betting. We have rated two of the top six namely Whispering Hopes and Kilbarry Ce Ce in our ratings. However as we are looking to prove a point we would be looking for Shing Shilla 100-1 Angels Peak 100-1 or Shes My Getaway 200-1 to outrun there respective odds and finish in the top 8.
Shes My Getaway has not run for nearly a year and half and is like to need the run. Angels Peak will need to jump a lot better and although Shing Shilla has played up on both her starts but if she goes off with the rest tomorrow looks the best of the three. But all have recorded a decent enough time to get into the mix if not win the race.

[Author]

Posts