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MikeKeymasterHi
For those who followed the link or actually read the threads we put up Mount Mandela in the 2.05 at Tramore last night. He led over the last only to get mugged on the line and end up second but at the 50-1 available last night and the 10-1 for 6 places we put him up at this morning we were more than happy. 🙂
As explained in the Ridiculous Ideas thread we are considering changing the way we place tips in the future due to the lack interest in site participation but such is life.MikeKeymasterHi
As “Ridiculous Ideas” go that was not so crazy Mount Mandela came second and should have won having gone two lengths up jumping the last only to get mugged on the line. However having taken the 50-1 myself last night and put the 10-1 for 6 places up for the site I am more than happy with the outcome. 🙂
Of the + positive ratings we posted two placed one fell one was a non runner.
Shining Silver 12-1 14.58 + Fell
Mount Mandela 50-1 14.77 + Placed Second
King In Love 25-1 15.71 /14.49 + Non Runner
Truckers Cruising 11-2 15.32 /14.99 + Placed Fourth
Of the ? ones who could benefit from the jockey claim one fell one won one placed
Polly Poppins 9-2 Fell ?
Halla Paroisite 12-1 Placed Third ?
The Blaggard 4-1 Won ?
As mentioned earlier the site is going through some transition as it has become apparent that although receiving between 30-40 hits a day (when tips are posted) the lack of people actively taking part has sadly dwindled. 🙁 Whilst on the subject a big heads up goes out to Sudsie who has over the last year been there to help compile a data base of speed ratings of over a thousand Irish hurdlers which will now form the vast majority of our forthcoming wagers.
With this in mind we may remove the tips page altogether and concentrate on the articles such as these in the hope of rekindling some interest.MikeKeymasterHi
Whilst we have not posted on here we are experimenting on the “Ridiculous Ideas for 2024″ thread for our switch to the new site option.MikeKeymasterHi
Shining Silver 14.58 + 12-1
Mount Mandela 14.77 + 50-1
King In Love 15.71 /14.49 + 22-1
Truckers Cruising 15.32 /14.99 + 11-2
Spinola Bay = 4-1
Finnicky Filly = 12-1
Polly Poppins ? 9-2
Halla Paroisite ? 12-1
The Blaggard ? 4-1
Kathy Choice 16.06 /15.71 – 22-1
Fortuna Lora 16.01 – 50-1
Shantou Princess 16.04 – 11-4
You can now see the issue as one of the the weakest times in my race forecast has been placed as the likeliest horse to win the race with Shantou Princess being the 11-4 favourite in the betting. ?
However with 4 places on offer with Skybet we do have some decent prices on our early selections and although Shining Silver @ 12-1 looks the best option Mount Mandela has the best price @ 50-1. King In Love 25-1 is an option but Truckers Cruising is short enough @ 6-1.
The middle of the markets has worked out well with The Blaggard,Spinola Bay,Finnicky Filly,Polly Poppins and Halla Parosoite filling the middle order.
This leaves Kathy Choice and Fortuna Lora which both the bookmakers and myself believe to be the unlikeliest winners of the race.The 50-1 for 4 places is an obvious option but for the thread we will take the 10-1 for 6 places on Mount Mandela tonight and wait to see how the markets settle down overnight.
MikeKeymasterHi
I have received a few queries about the “Ridiculous Ideas” thread and how I form the markets etc. I will drop a few ideas your way but unfortunately have to be a bit careful as some of my articles have been recently published without my knowledge so I do not want to give too much away.
As the “Speed Rating” article has already been published elsewhere here is an example of a race we are working on and features the 2.05 at Tramore tomorrow for which no prices are currently available. Now when you print these things you are putting your head above the trenches and may well get your ears shot off when or if it goes tits up but such is life. This is a tricky trial as it is a maiden race with little to go on but here goes.
Shining Silver 14.58 +
Mount Mandela 14.77 +
King In Love 15.71 /14.49 +
Truckers Cruising 15.32 /14.99 +
Spinola Bay =
Finnicky Filly =
Polly Poppins ?
Halla Paroisite ?
The Blaggard ?
Kathy Choice 16.06 /15.71 –
Fortuna Lora 16.01 –
Shantou Princess 16.04 –
Now the + sign indicates a positive time and a – obviously a negative time. The = sign indicates a solid time but unspectacular and the ? indicates the presence of a jockey claim that could benefit the time. I will update the thread later with the next step once we have an idea of the markets.MikeKeymasterHi
Another step in the right direction yesterday with the following results
2.33 Banana Three @ 4-1 (Placed at 6-1 with BOG)
3.43 Big Chou @ 5-1 (Won)
4.18 Noble Hilltop @ 16-1 for 5 places (Fell when in contention)
This meant we cleared a +4 point profit on the day and although we have nothing for today we will are starting to get into gear again and will be back shortly. 🙂MikeKeymasterHi
Bayou Belle placed and the big outsider Inch Alainn came 5th when when we wanted 4th but such is life. This hopefully means we are starting to get our eye in again and we have gone with the following over at Fairyhouse today.
2.33 Banana Three @ 4-1
3.43 Big Chou @ 5-1
4.18 Noble Hilltop @ 16-1 for 5 places
There have been a few non runners since we placed the bets so there may some price changes or be the odd deduction dependent on which race and which/how many runners have dropped out but again such is life. Over confidence is never a good thing but I would not put off anyone having an each way accumulator on the above.MikeKeymasterHi
With the non runners starting to be declared we are happy enough to take Inch Alainn at 21-1 for 4 places for the site having maybe possibly taken him at 100-1 for the crack last night.MikeKeymasterHi
This post has nothing to do with the fact that we are struggling to get one home lately but there is a funny one over at Killarney tomorrow along with what should be an each way banker.
1.40 Inch Alainn @ 100-1
2.15 Bayou Belle @ 15-2 for 4 places
I am pretty sure you can work out which is the each way banker and which one is the oddball but I will update the thread tomorrow when the extra markets are published.MikeKeymasterHi
Thanks Suds I will fill in the blanks and try to avoid the football this week which has been our Achilles heel of late.
Stormers -9 to beat Zebre @ 10-11
Zach Bauchou to win the Korn Ferry Tour @ 5-4
Burnley to beat Preston +Burnley to score 0ver 1 goal @ 5-6
Newcastle to beat Everton @ 5-4
2.30 Gowran Park Apples Of Bresil @ 8-11
3.05 Gowran Park Talk In The Park 3-1
The accumulator comes to 121.42-1
The lottery numbers are 4,7,16,23,31 and 50MikeKeymasterHi
Not so clever in the last wager with neither horse lasting home but we will dip our toe in the water at Clonmel.
2.45 Leave In Secret 6-1 (but is dependent on 8 runners staying in the race)
4.25 Sydney Cruiser @ 11-2 for 5 places
4.55 Tullamaore Lucy @ 14-1 for 5 placesMikeKeymasterHi
I have had a query over why we say we lost when for example this weekend we had two winners at profitable odds.
Cardiff +2 to beat Scarlets @ 1-1 Won
2.15 Listowel Kazakh D’arthel @ 10-3
Angel Hidalgo to win the Esapna Open @ 15-4 Won
Aston Villa to beat Ipswich @ 10-11
West Brom to beat Sheffield Wednesday @ 13-10
Sunderland to beat Watford @ 27-20
Now obviously had we backed these as our usual singles we would have come out with a small profit mainly due to the golf bet being advised at 15-4. However the rules of this particular competition are to beat the returns on a lottery ticket using the same stake. Therefore to get cash back on the lottery you need three winning numbers from six balls. So to make it a level playing filed we make the minimum wager on our six selections to be a treble. Hence unfortunately the last two weekends we would have lost as we only had two winners. Having said that the horse Kazakh D’arthel led over the last fence and was nabbed on the line by a freakish 250-1 outsider and Villa looked all over the winners when 2-1 up against Ipswich, but such is life.
The competition does not cost anything to enter but is only available to contributing active members.MikeKeymasterHi
That went better than expected as although being squeezed out when jumping the last Duke Otto still managed to finish second on the run in. I would have preferred the win but a place at the 28-1 advised gives us a nice little +4.6 point profit on the day.
We are heading over to Roscommon tomorrow for the following
2.50 Field A Thistles @ 13-2
3.25 Fire Coral @ 8-1 for 5 placesMikeKeymasterHi
Against my better judgement I am going to put this one up tomorrow at Listowel. I say that as the ground has gone Soft to Heavy very quickly and that can sometimes be a disastrous scenario but the price is just to tempting.
3.55 Duke Otto @ 28-1 for 6 places (sky bet) -
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