[Mike]

Hi
Not a blinding start with Mackenstown Supreme (one of our horses to follow) slipping up on the flat between fences and may now possibly be out for the season. This was closely followed by Slim Marvel turning the final bend in second place but fading into 7th we needed 6th.
But such is life we will try and pull a rabbit out of the hat tomorrow by taking on the Cheltenham bound talking horse The Yellow Clay over at Navan with the each way shout…..
Wheres My Jet @ 10-1

[Mike]

Hi
Now our season has started again we will throw a couple of wagers in on here to kick the thread off again
Navan 11.40 Mackenstown Supreme 150-1 but the 12-1 for 6 places looks the best option
Navan 12.15 Slim Marvel 25-1 but 22-1 for 6 places (Skybet) looks best
Navan 12.50 Waajaha @ 25-1 for 5 places

[Mike]

Hi
Last week we had three of the Rugby bets in with Australia, Argentina and South Africa all winning which was enough to win the competition again and we came soooo… close with the 25-1 shot with Carson Young finishing second.
Inspired by this we will try a similar tack this week with the following

Australia -6 to beat Wales @ 1-1
Navan 12.15 Slim Marvel @ 20-1
Cheltenham 1.45 Lookaway @ 11-10 betting without L’eau Du Sud
Cheltenham 2.20 Go Law 7-2 betting without Ginny’s Destiny
Cheltenham 2.55 Gowel Road @ 4-1 betting without Doyen Quest and Emailandy
Cheltenham 1.45 (Sunday) Leader In The Park 5-2 betting without Peaky Boy

The lottery numbers will be the usual 4,7,16,23,31 and 50

[Mike]

Hi
We already have one possible horse out for the season in Flooring Porter and two that have disappeared from the early betting markets.
So here are the adjusted lines

Burdett Road
Corbetts Cross
Doyen Quest
Dysart Enos
Found A Fifty
Ginny’s Destiny
Grey Dawning
Jonbon
L’Eau du Sud
Peaky Boy

Fastorslow
Gaelic Warrior
Git Maker
Il Est Francais
Jonbon
Majborough
Romeo Coolio
Teahupoo
Three Card Brag
Valgrand

Dysart Enos
Fact To File
Gaelic Warrior
Galopin Des Champs
Jango Baie
Lossiemouth
Sir Gino
State Man
Strong Leader
Valgrand

[Mike]

Hi
We will be switching back to the standard winningposts thread soon as our season is about to start again. In the meantime I have still been playing with the Flat,NHF and PTP comparison sheets and would be chuffed if the 40-1 shot Black Soul were to outrun his odds. He runs against the well fancied Irancy in the 2.00 at Punchestown tomorrow and the 10-1 for 6 looks the best option at the moment.

[Mike]

Hi
Here are the final lines for the competition which starts this Friday These lines will be targeting the monthly prizes.

Burdett Road
Corbetts Cross
Doyen Quest
Dysart Enos
Ginny’s Destiny
Grey Dawning
Iberico lord
Jonbon
Peaky Boy
Shanagh Bob

Fastorslow
Flooring Porter
Gaelic Warrior
Git Maker
Il Est Francais
Jonbon
Majborough
Romeo Coolio
Teahupoo
Three Card Brag

Burdett Road
Firefox
Jalon Doudaries
Jango Baie
Jeraboam Machin
Quai De Bourbon
Regents Stroll
Sounds Victorious
The Jukebox Man
Three Card Brag

Dysart Enos
Fact To File
Flooring Porter
Gaelic Warrior
Galopin Des Champs
Jango Baie
Lossiemouth
Sir Gino
State Man
Strong Leader

Best of luck to all concerned Clarence (Suds) and Mgame (G) are on 40% of any winnings on there individual lines and if the Valheim line comes in Choncc and Emyr are on 20% each. I will finalise all the details by Friday morning before the competition starts.

[Mike]

Hi
Suds first effort had the market side of things more or less spot on but Koo Star could not get into sixth place. This has inspired us to look into the allowances as this has happened before. As for the thread new member “Hopefull” has been sending us his notes on the flat/AW and just for fun I have had a dabble with a race he has been working on and come up with Mojomaker at 11-1 for 5 places in the 7.00 at Southwell. Bear in mind this is the dreaded flat (which would not be our specialist subject on mastermind) and the bet is just my take on the race as I just had to have a play with the figures….lol.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
I had the faith and took the 19-2 in the early markets for 6 places on Koo Star but she could go either way now. The next step I guess after tomorrows race would be to reassess the weight allowances we are giving as Koo Star has both the mares allowance and a 7lb claim.

[Mike]

Hi
Well Carson Young could not quite pull of the miracle win at 25-1 for the Beat The Lotto (£) thread but he did us proud here eventually finishing second at 55-1 for a nice +10 point profit.

 

[Mike]

Hi Suds
That worked out really well with Mayo Shirocco (the PTP runner) being the only one to split up the top five of your market. I am guessing you will be looking for Koo Star as a possible extra markets wager being as it is the odd one out at a whopping 100-1.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Finally taken the plunge (nice to see) and all your own work, whats the worse that can happen….lol. I have just wasted two weeks working out that trying to predict Flat, PTP and NH ratings to Hurdle ratings is nearly impossible so I do see the issue with Beautiful Chaos.
As for our going back to our standard ratings and putting Beauforts Storm up on the thread for 6 places embarrassingly he nearly wins the race coming second at 40-1 to the odds on Spasiba.
He was available at 22-1 without the eventual winner or 12-1 without both Spasiba and Jersey Des Brosses (which may have been taken…lol) but I played to safe for the thread. 🙁 It will take a while to live that one down.

[Mike]

Hi
I will be posting my lines soon which will fill in the gaps so if anyone has a line to pop down please post the entry by tonight so that we can finalise the entries.

[Mike]

Hi
We will try and get back on track today by reverting to our hurdling database and go back in with Beauforts Storm in the 12.20 at Naas 50-1 but we used him for 7 places last time so the 12-1 for 6 places looks the best option today.

[Mike]

Hi
I think we can conclude from today’s results trying to convert Flat times to correspond to possible hurdle times is really not going to work as two of the Flat converts (who were well fancied) either didn’t jump well or ran everywhere but where the were supposed too. I fully appreciate one of the Flat runners Cashdale Lad won the race but he was the exception to the rule. The NHF tables we will adjust but were reasonably happy with and we will continue to try an adjusted conversion rate on that topic.
As for the thread we will go back to the hurdle ratings where we were having some success but we still have six weeks to go before all of our data base selections will hopefully come to fruition. In the meantime we will be finalizing our Ten To Follow thread and keeping tabs on the other competition threads.

[Mike]

Hi
Just a reminder that for the time being we are only dealing with the competition threads and you find this weekends Rugby selections on the Beat The Lotto (£) thread.

[Author]

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