[Mike]

Hi
My nemesis “Fool Me Once” has fooled me again this time he pulled up halfway round and I think I have resigned myself to the fact that he is going to be the one disappointment with this thread as I start to wind it down. He is now 25 points down and likely to be the reason I don’t manage to stay out of CCU this x mas.
I am struggling to insert tables and excel sheets on WordPress but am working on it. In the meantime here is a quick breakdown of the results for 2026 so far which includes yesterdays -5 point disaster.
We have had 24 winners totaling +314.45
We have 10 in profit via place money which comes in at +18-10
We have 31 bad boys who are still in various states of deficit totaling -131.05
This brings us to a total of +201.50 (which differs from my running total of +185.50. I am looking into that but it occurred when I was incapacitated and may take a while.

Fool Me Once tops the list of bad boys at -25
Dream Shaper is next on -9
Lakota Blue is -8
Space Warrior -7
Yarraman Makarratta -6
All the others are -5 or less
I would dearly love to remove a few of these from the naughty step but we are running out of time.

[Mike]

Hi
A winner and a non runner last time out lets hope we can back on track this weekend

Haydock 1.15 Kabral Du Mathan 13-8
Ascot 1.30 Pic D Orhy 3-1
Ascot 2.40 Celtic Dino 9-2
Haydock 3.00 Haiti Couleurs 7-2
Cork 2.10 The Big Westerner @ SP
Cork 3.00 Fastorslow 5-1

The winning numbers this week are 4,7,16,23,26 and 50

[Mike]

Hi Suds
As I said in a previous post it was me that encouraged you to try a new angle which took you away from what a successful thread so blame me but it was a tad unlucky that the first trainer you chose to link with specific jockeys has had a bad run of form. Gavin Cromwell has had 6 of his last 22 NH horses Pull Up but it will come around its just a question of whether you want to continue with it as it stands until the end of the month scrap it or go all in. ?

[Mike]

Hi
A good day today Miss Mini Bee placed at 14-1 and Hillstar Blues won (25-1) but I had only taken 18-1. I usually wait for BOG on my bets but as both of these horses were in a deficit and the outlay was only 1 point each way on both I was happy at the time. Had I waited I could have had the 25-1 but then it would have been borderline as to whether to reduce my stakes. Racing is all “Swings and Roundabouts” but utlimately I am happy with the result.
The profit on the day was +23.40 but more importantly it removed another horse from the list and reduced the deficit on another. I am highlighting this as my jinx horse for this thread is running tomorrow and I swore I would drop this one but with only a month to go and now back up to +190.30 running total I just have to go for it.

Fairyhouse 2.15 Foool Me Once @ 10-1 for 4 places

I am not lost on the irony of the fact that this horse has fooled me five times already but the idea of the thread was to follow them until they win, The bad news is he is already -20 and will be the one big disappointment for me on this thread is if he fools me again tomorrow. The bet will have to 2.5 points each way to clear the deficit and make my 10 point profit (target) per horse….squeeky time.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
These things are unavoidable but I imagine you must be pleased with the way it is going it looks a relatively stress free thread, maybe I should try one of those…lol.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I think its hats off to Hopefull today and I think we definitely have something to work on going forward. I did not get time to post the accumulator made up of our combined efforts and although it would have lost shows the potential options in the thread. It was placed as a “Top 7” again and after Dgalwaygallvinator had been declared a non runner was priced up @ 66-1.

Artctic Piper, Hatfield Hammer, Down ARound, Giant Haystacks, Plunkett Street, Lambay Island and Miss Mini Bee. The bet came out at 66-1 and only missed by one.

I have a busy weekend of updates TFT, Ridiculous Ideas 2025, etc etc but will also be working on the post mortem of this thread to see how we can take this forward. ? So if anyone has an idea or wants to put up another race let me know.

[Mike]

Hi
A big weekend again with all of the following looking likely to run and a few kit kat challenge’s thrown in.

Friday
Catterick 2.25 Greatness Awaits

Saturday
Ascot 1.30 (Bonus Race) Jango Baie v Il Est Francais
2.40 (Bonus Race) Wodhooh
Haydock
3.00 (Bonus Race) Grey Dawning v Haiti Coleurs

Sunday
Punchestown 3.00 (Bonus Race) Fact To File v Gaelic Warrior

[Mike]

Hi
Unfortunately with Dgalwaygallivantor dropping out late morning it has rather upset the apple cart and if it had happened a bit earlier Miss Lia might have got in which several of us had shortlisted. But just for fun I thought I would look at Hopefull’s selections which did not feature Dgalwygallvinator using the top 7 bet builder option.

Plunkett Street
Giant Haystacks
Miss Mini Bee
Lambay Island 10-3

There will be a price deduction on the site bet without Dgallwaygallivantor and I am a bit short of time before the off but will update later.

[Mike]

Hi
There are a couple of runners that at least two of us jointly fancy today and the safest option (lol) would be the following which is a bet builder priced up at 12-5.

Down Around, Giant Haystacks and Dgalwaygallivantor all for a top 7 finish

[Mike]

Hi
Space Warrior finished 4th we wanted 3rd but such is life but the goods news is we finally have something going tomorrow at Thurles assuming the snow doesn’t come in tonight.

2.35 Miss Mini Bee @ 14-1 for 4 places
3.10 Hillstar Blues @ 18-1 for 6 places

[Mike]

Hi
Just bear in mind I am going in totally blind on a handicap race here but having got my excuses already lined up (lol) here goes. It is a new dedicated sheet for handicap races so will adapt as we go along but you have to start somewhere.

2.35 Thurles

Down Around 11-2
Giant Haystacks 15-2
Miss Lia 15-2 (Reserve)
Hatfield Hammer 15-2
Dgalwaygallivantor 9-1
Miss Lia 12-1
Arctic Piper 121-1
Lady Iseult 12-1 (Reserve)
Sphagnum 13-1
Plunkett Street 16-1
Mister Box 16-1
Miss Mini Bee 16-1
No Demand 16-1
Liberated Light 16-1
Lambay Island 25-1
Kazbek 25-1

As you know I struggle a bit with handicap races and I really would not 100% rule out any of these.
But my initial shortlist of ones to look at would be
Hatfield Hammer (Assuming ground dries out)
Down Around
Dgalwaygallavantor
Miss Lia (Reserve at present)
Giant Haystacks
Arctic Piper

[Mike]

Hi
Surprisingly (with the exception of Butch Coolidge) I am not to disappointed with the overall result and can definitely see a trend after just two attempts at this idea. All four of us had West Of Bally the easy winner in the frame Rob had him to win Hopefull had him joint first. Then you have the extra markets which covered 7 places in which Rob had Koolio Kate, Suds and I both had Bangor Lady and Opera Point which at prices of between 25-1 to 66-1 have the scope to be used in bet builders etc. The bet may not have come off but jumping the last they were all in position.
The trend I am seeing is Rob and Hopefull have more of a handle on the horse to win and Suds and myself seem to pull the likley outsiders out for the extra markets.
I would however suggest that now we have tried a Novice dabbled with a no form Maiden that either Suds or Hopefull put up a Handicap race next. ? There are three “Handicap Hurdles” at Thurles on Thursday. ?

[Mike]

Hi
As we are a few points up (in theory) I will take a punt at another “Bet Builder” and risk a point at 14-1 on the following wager.

West Of Bally Top 3
Butch Coolridge Top 3
Opera Point Top 5
Bangor Lady Top 7

[Mike]

Hi
Here are tomorrows predicted odds for the 12.35 which as you can see are not exactly inline with the bookmakers. ?

Loyal Praetorian…. 9-2
Butch Coolidge…… 7-1
West Of Bally……. .15-2
Opera Point……….. 9-1
Changeyourstars ..10-1
Koolio Kate……….. 13-1
Castle Croiuil……. .14-1
Keep The Head…. .14-1
Bangor Lady……… 14-1
Casafirerna………. .16-1
Deanery Charlie….20-1
Golden Order…… ..20-1
Aboras Mahler…. ..20-1
Apalachiyeats…… .20-1
Shanroe Nelson.. ..22-1
Mistyburn…………..25-1
Grey Gardens…….. 33-1

[Mike]

Hi
I do not mean to sidetrack this thread but I have had a lot of queries since Rob and I posted this morning.
The most asked question to date has been how do you compile odds before the bookies odds come out. The simple answer is with great difficulty but here is the simplest example I could come up with featuring today’s graded races at Navan. Graded races rarely have bad runners in them and by simply using there official rating I compiled these odds this morning using just the OR official rating as stated on this mornings race card in the Racing Post.

The Yellow Clay……. 156…. 35…..35.29…. 9-5……..8-15
Jetara……………………146…..25…..25.21…..3-1…….100-30
Maxxum……………….153…..32…..32.27…..85-40….8-1
Colonel Mustard …..146…..25…..25.21….. 3-1……..12-1
Grandero Bello……..123……2…… 2.02…….50-1…….33-1

Dinoblue………………160…. 12……31.43…..11-5……..5-2
Found A Fifty………..164…..16…..42.86…..11-8…….11-8
Captain Guiness……162…..14…..37.14…..13-8……..5-1
Touch Me Not……….150……2……2.86……33-1……..5-1
Hercule Du Seuil…..151……2…… 5.71…….16-1……..14-1

The first column is the actual OR (Official Rating) The second Column is the same rating but reduced by the amount it would take to make the lowest figure 2. In race one it was 121 Grandero Bello OR 123 – 121 = 2. Then reduce the rest of the ratings by the same amount (121). The next figure was simple calculations to achieve a betting market to 120% approximately the same as a bookmaker would use. We then compare the % mark of each runner to a table that gives you the effective odds of each runner.
Yes I know its not that simple and I will send out to anyone who wants a copy of the sheet and further explanation just e-mail me.
I will tidy this post up later but wish to get back to the thread as I have a list of odds to show the flip side of the coin when it all goes wrong.

[Author]

Posts