[Mike]

Hi
This has been short notice but the new thread has sparked a bit of interest and a few queries via e-mail.
The primary question was the staking plan being so expensive at 120 bets as opposed to just the one simple 1 point accumulator. The point is I am trying to produce a bet that makes a profit ie when I bet a 100-1 shot on here I never take the 100-1 (well rarely)but will take a lower price for a finish further down the field to avoid long losing streaks.
To give you an example I have cherry picked through Joe’s matches and bets for tonights games and quickly come up with a bet which is as follows.

AC Milan v Chelsea btts yes @ 4-5
PSG v Benfica PSG to win plus btts yes @ 7-4
Charlton Exeter Jevani Brown to score @ 21-10
Peterborough v Forest Green Clarke- Harris to score @ 4-5
Wigan v Blackburn btts yes @ 10-11
Shakhtar Donesk v Real Madrid Real madrid to win plus btts yes @ 2-1
Milton Keynes v Bristol Rovers btts yes @ 3-4

The 7 fold 1 point win acca comes to +275.84 but I have gone with 7x 1/2 point sixfolds which comes to +446.48 should all seven come up but if as I suspect at best any six come in I still get some dosh back.
Hopefully this example will clear things up but this weekend’s wager should shed some furter light on the topic. However don’t hold your breath for a big win acca’s are a nightmare bet (but a lot of fun). Any bets on only 5 coming in…lol 🙁

[Mike]

Hi
Out Galavanting managed to grab 10th place just missed 9th (in a blanket finish) and although the other two bets went down we still cleared a nice little +6 points on the day. There is another meeting at Punchestown tomorrow but I have nothing at present and will give it a miss while I work on the new Joe’s dream punt 🙂 thread for the weekend.

[Mike]

Hi
To celebrate my first clear covid test in seven days I will head over to Punchestown tomorrow
3.30 Out Galavanting 150-1 but we have gone with 55-1 for 10 places and 70-1 for 9 places.
3.30 Warm In Grey 150-1 but we have taken the 55-1 for 10 places.
It is rare for me take on two lost causes in one race but the prices were just to good to miss out on.
We can still go in again at 70-1 for 9 places on our second runner Warm In Grey but I am waiting to see which way the markets go tonight. Just out of interest Arcland is an interesting runner here as the markets have him anywhere between 16-1 and 50-1.

[Mike]

Hi
I will be taking a sabatical for a few days whilst I try and shift this covid bug but will be back shortly. Yesterdays Newcastle v Brentford game was another cracker for the thread with 6 goals, 14 corners but only 1 card and somehow we missed both bets, but once again we are knocking on the door.
See you soon 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
We had our first blank of the month today which means we dropped -4 points on the day but still remain +24.20 points up after the first week of this month.
This will be a nice place to leave this thread for a few days, as I really do not have the ‘hwyl’ for sitting in front of the screens at present. 🙁 But the covid must have nearly run its course by now, so hopefully we will be back on here soon. I will aim for Tuesday for the meeting at Punchestown, if at all possible.

[Mike]

Hi
No need to tell it was the right game last week with nine goals etc etc and we are getting good at that part of the bet but still looking for that elusive long shot return.
For todays game/s we are going to take a punt at the following two games as they both have potential.
Newcastle v Brentford
1+ shot on target each team in each half, each team 1+ corners in each half and each team 10+ booking pts @ 2/1
Long Shot bet @ 125-1 = BTTS and 2+ corners both teams both halves and 20+ booking points both teams.
Brighton v Tottenham
1+ shot on target each team in each half, each team 1+ corners in each half and each team 10+ booking pts @ 5-2
Long Shot bet @ 125-1 = BTTS and 2+ corners both teams both halves and 20+ booking points both teams.

[Mike]

Hi
Celebrating Katie did us proud today finishing sixth so brought both of our thread bets home and a decent return of +17 points. Unfortunately the other two lost out so drops us back to only +13 points on the day, but I will gladly settle for that.  🙂
As for tomorrow we will try the same trick over at Fairyhouse with te following selections.
3.55 Maimie’s Magic 100-1 but available at 30-1 for 7 places and 45-1 for 6 places I am quite happy to take both those prices on tonight as there could be non runners tomorrow.
4.30 Alex D @ 40-1 for 4 Places
A bet without the favourite or 5 places would have been ideal but I cannot guarantee staying up to watch the markets tonight. 🙁

[Mike]

Hi
It’s probably the paracetamol talking here as I have been up most of the night but bet365 are still offering 200-1 on Celebrating Katie. Most firms have gone 40-1 or 50-1 which makes the 60-1 for 6 places a decent shout or if you fancy taking a risk the 110-1 for 5 places might get your blood pumping one way or the other…lol.
For those who kept there powder dry on Innellan Shore you can get 25-1 now. 🙂

 

[Mike]

Hi Joe
Thanks.. just as well its only covid, if it had been man flu I could have been in trouble…lol.

I have had a flick through the cards for tomorrow for at Downpatrick and will be looking at the following

1.57 Celebrating Katie 200-1 but at 35-1 for 7 places with an option at 60-1 for 6 places.
1.57 Chancer Dancer 100-1 also runs for the same yard but 22-1 for 7 places looks the bet.
3.07 Innellan Shore @ 20-1 for 4 places looks interesting but my selections of late have drifted so it might be worth keeping your powder dry until the morning. But I won’t be up and about early doors…:(

[Mike]

Hi
I tested positive for covid today and feel terrible so apologies if the tips dry up for a day or so. 🙁

[Mike]

Hi
That was a decent day at the office today with Tomas O Maille finishing second at 125-1 and Caesers Rock winning at 12-1 (as we had backed him without Hallowed Star which won). Now obviously for the thread we had only taken Tomas O Maille at 30-1 for 5 places but we still cleared a nice +15.40 point profit on the day. Stormy finished third at 200-1 and had he not been squeezed for room two out could well have hit the frame as well.
There is nothing for tomorrow which is just as well as I have either the flu or covid and need my rest.

[Mike]

Hi
I cannot resist a 1/2 point each way on Stormey at 200-1 as I can see at least one of these not completing and the selection if it runs should complete likes the course and might squeak a place especially if the ground cuts up.
In the 1.15 Out The Gap now 40-1 is availabe at 18-1 betting without Music Drive which looks a reasonable shout and Tomas O Mallie 100-1 can be had at 30-1 for 5 places.
Caesers Rock 33-1 is worth a punt at 12-1 betting without both Hallowed Star and Iberique Du Seuil.

 

[Mike]

Hi
We will be going with either and/or on the following selections at Galway tomorrow subject to the market prices and as I am off will update late tonight or first thing in the morning.

1.15 Out The Gap 25-1 and/or Tomas O Mallie 100-1
3.00 Stormey 100-1
3.35 Caesar Rock 33-1

[Mike]

Hi
General Clermont placed but Jack Holliday unfortunately fell two out when leading having looking nailed on for a place if not a win so we will keep an eye on this one next time out. This means we all but broke even on the day so we stay more or less level this month after the first few days.
There is nothing obvious for tomorrow at present but we will update the thread should anything crop up.

[Mike]

Hi
We got both Banker bets in and with 4 goals in one game and six in the other plus a hatful of corners and cards we were not far from that elusive long shot as well. 🙂
We are going to go in tomorrow with the usual but this time in the Manchester derby game
Banker bet @ 3-1 = BTTS,1+ corner each team each half and 10+ booking points both teams.
Long Shot bet @ 150-1 = BTTS and 2+ corners both teams both halves and 20+ booking points both teams.

[Author]

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