[Mike]

Hi
We finally have the bet builder option and for all three to finish in the top 10 (plus a 25% bet365 bonus) gives us 22.5-1 which we think is well worth a punt. The reasoning being that although a pound or two out of the market both Fairlander & Accustomed are running off bottom weight and both look as though they have a race in them. Add in the fact that Bright Legend is a not over penalised for having been a solid performer all season and it starts to look promising.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
I will be picking everyone’s brains on this topic as we go into May as the season winds down for me and I get to dabble…lol.
As for my initial foray into new ways of losing money (there are always options there..lol) I will dabble with the new “Potential” theory which see’s me initially dabbling in the 4.15 at Punchestown today.
We have started by backing El Cairos, Koktail Brut & Too Bossy For Us for a top 3 finish and transversely laying Sober & Le Labo.
As I am new to this I am guessing the obvious tip for everybody is to back my two lays in a reverse forecast. OMG… this is going to embarrassing when that happens…..
I am going to go back into the markets every couple of hours to see how this works but will start to work on the post mortem as the day progress’s.

[Mike]

Hi
Having one pull up did not help the cause and with only Anodandawink placing we lost -1.60 on the day on our last set of wagers which drops us back down to +6.29.
We have our main computer down at the moment but if my memory serves me well all of the following are “Extra Market” horses and go in the 3.05 at Punchestown tomorrow and we have gone straight in at 1/2 point each way on all three.

Accustomed 40-1 but we have gone with 15-1 for 10 places
Bright Legend 25-2 but 10-1 for 10 places
Fairlander 18-1 but we have taken 12-1 for 8 places

We will be looking for a bet builder on the above when the markets are published.

[Mike]

Hi
The first day of the Punchestown festival see’s the following runners heading the declarations.

4.50 July Flower (Moi)

6.05 Il Etatit Temps (Rob)
6.05 Majborough (Mgame & JoeH)
6.05 Marine Nationale (Rob)

This would see Rob looking in pole position on the first day but it’s a funny old game.

[Mike]

Hi
We are to all intents and purposes in the last 10 days of the competition which will end on the 2nd May after the last race of the “Punchestown Festival”. Mgame looks the likely winner at present of both this months and the overall competition especially if Jonbon can finish the season with a bang tomorrow. However Joe, Suds and possibly Rob could still get involved in one or both If they get the rub of the green.
Suds looks to have the cash competition sewn up (especially with Andy’s Woodland Park running a stinker) and would not need to go in again unless Rob can pull a rabbit out the hat with his unused bets but again that’s also a difficult ask.

[Mike]

Hi
No worries Suds it’s been along week..lol. We had three in last week for a return and a win so we are back on track.
Bellewstown 2.05 Ole Ole @ 4-5 Won
Bellewstown 3.15 Fiver Friday @ 13-8 Won
Ayr 4.15 Laguna Beach @ 10-1
Bellewstown 4.25 Struck Oil @ 11-4
Ospreys +2 to beat Sharks @ 10-11 Won
Arsenal to win or draw against Man City @ 10-11

Here are this weeks chancers….
Munster -28 to beat Ulster @ 10-11
Aston Villa to beat Fulham @ 6-4
Sandown 1.13 Cloaks Of Gold @ 7-1
Sandown 2.55 Thistle Ask @ 7-4
Sandown 4.02 Jinko Blue top 2 finish @ 1-1
Sandown 4.40 Calimystaic @ 5-4

The lottery numbers are 4,7,16,23,26 & 50

[Mike]

Hi
I fear there will be no shortcuts when entering into the exchanges (I have been following the markets since last night) and it looks like we will have to go in for a full race, price every runner and be the first to post. This is a very risky proposition but when I see a race I will throw it out on here for an opinion on the suggested tissue odds then I will have someone else to blame when it all goes wrong (only joking)..lol.
We will keep an eye out until five minutes before the off tonight but I cannot see a viable option at present. The most glaringly obvious thing that’s missing is that I will have to devise a way to price the top finish market in comparison to the likely SP. ?

[Mike]

Hi
Just as well we waited as we have managed some extra places without to much hassle.
4.50 Desert Haven 7-1
4.50 McLoughlin 10-1
Both of the above for a top 7 finish @ 3-1 for the standard 1 point win.
5.23 The Dancen Kid is now availble @ 9-1 for 5 places
6.28 Anodandawink 10-1 in the extra markets is 9-1 for 6 places
Both of the above are 1/2 point each way singles.

[Mike]

Hi
Just to keep everyone updated I have not forgotten about this thread and Sean has helped me with a basic but useful tool that we will dabble with as a precursor to our exchange aspirations.
In the 4.50 at Kilbeggan tomorrow we will be looking to take on (in theory) Piccolo Player, Survivors Sister, Coolboy Christy & Jury Belle for top 4/5 finishes.
In theory we will be backing Desert Haven, Kabylia, McLoughlin & Must meet Cecil for a top 4/5 finishes.
The current “Wild Cards” are Chanceawetmorning & Lady Doyenne.
Obviously it all depends what prices become available but I will try and be first one up.

[Mike]

Hi
Lincall was a non runner and Maxicourt ran out of steam so we drop back down to +7.89 but have a few options at Kilbeggan tomorrow with a handful of extra market runners.

4.50 Desert Haven 7-1
4.50 McLoughlin 10-1
5.23 The Dancen Kid 6-1
6.28 Anodandawink 10-1

There is no hurry with any of the above and we will wait until the extra markets open up.

[Mike]

Hi
We will go with Lincall 1/2 point each way @ 9-1 for 4 places in the extra markets with bet 365.

[Mike]

Hi
A Snow White Park went a close fourth losing by a head but obviously being an extra markets horse maybe I should have waited for the extra place. ? But it is what it is and we now stand at +8.89 and have two going tomorrow at Tramore which are as follows.

4.10 Lincall 11-1
5.00 Maxicourt @ 18-1 for 5 places
We have gone 1/2 point each way with Maxicourt but will wait to see if we can get something better on Lincall.

[Mike]

Hi
We had the bet builder in and a couple of places but at the end of the day only made +1.65 profit which takes us to +9.89 but it was close to being so much more.
I only have the one runner tomorrow which is a chase race entry and only an extra markets horse but bet365 have put up a silly price so we will go in straight away as a standard bet.

Tramore 5.00 A Snow White Park 1/2 point each way @ 16-1

[Mike]

Hi
We have waited until this morning to take advantage of every extra edge we can get as this could be a very painful day as we will be putting up 8 points and we are only +8.24 points up at present. So here goes…..

2.05 Whats New
1/2 point each way betting without Ole Ole & Manoir De Mirande @ 4-1
2.40 Glenrush Bay
2.40 Jr Mahon
Both to finish in the top 8 @ 11-4
3.50 Take Stock
1/2 point each way @ 5-1 betting without Galavanting George & Dairy Focre
4.25 Struck Oil
2 points each way @ 7-2 for 5 places BOG attached
5.00 Seeitoldya 33-1 (non runner)
5.00 Can Happen
1/2 point each way @ 12-1 for 5 places
We will leave this page open as we are still waiting the dreaded bet builder markets to be finalised and will edit accordingly.

[Mike]

Hi
I do not remember which idiot felt confident last week but I think it was me…lol. That would explain why we only had the one winner but still managed a no score draw in the competition. Here are this weeks dodgy characters.

Bellewstown 2.05 Ole Ole @ 4-5
Bellewstown 3.15 Fiver Friday @ 13-8
Ayr 4.15 Laguna Beach @ 10-1
Bellwestown 4.25 Struck Oil @ 11-4
Ospreys +2 to beat Sharks @ 10-11
Arsenal to win or draw against Man City @ 10-11

The lottery numbers are the usual 4,7,16,23,26 & 50

[Author]

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