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RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Well done with your last couple of selections.
I may have a couple of selections for Saturday and will be posting some thoughts for both the Galway and Goodwood festivals next week.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Folks,
A couple of selections for Saturday:
3.30 Newcastle – RAJINSKY 0.5 pt each way either with William Hill at 11/2 BOG for 7 places, or B365 at 6/1 BOG for 6 places – I prefer the former option.
3.45 Curragh – TUESDAY 1 pt win at 7/4 BOG with either Betfair, or Paddy Power.
All the best,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantWell done Mike and Joe – a couple of nice each way returns today.
As for my performance, MAWJ couldn’t provide a return on my win only bet, finishing second, but both DISCOVERIES @ 11/1 and FRESH HOPE @ 10/1 did provide positive each way returns to provide a very modest profit of 0.1 pts.
The record for my Royal Ascot selections over the first 4 days is 13 bets, 9 win, or each way returns for a profit of just over 8 pts.
However, I shall call it a day now, as Saturday’s card appears fiendishly difficult even before some uncertainty as to whether there will be rain at the track.
Still can’t complain, as my weekly average profit target is a modest 2 pts, so by my standards it has been a good week.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Folks,
2 out of 3 today with each way returns on both ISRAR and CHIEFOFCHIEFS for a small 0.4 pt profit, but unfortunately REACH THE MOON could only finish second.
Anyone brave enough to back both each way selection in a double would have made a nice profit of just over 4 pts.
I have 4 selections for tomorrow, but was pleased to have backed them all earlier this afternoon, as the 3 at Royal Ascot have all shortened due to being tipped up in the Racing Post.
2.30 Ascot – MAWJ @ 2/1 BOG (I took 10/3)
4.20 Ascot – DISCOVERIES each way @ 8/1 BOG with 4 places (I took 10/1)
5.00 Ascot – FRESH HOPE each way @ 7/1 with 7 places (I took 10/1)7.25 Limerick – RAISE YOU @ 11/10 BOG
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantThis is weird, as my posts are accepted on some occasions and rejected at other times.
Selections for tomorrow are:
3.05 Ascot – ISRAR (each way at 8/1 with 6 places).
5.35 Ascot – REACH THE MOON (4/7)
6.10 Ascot – CHIEFOFCHIEFS (each way at 16/1 with 7 places)
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike/Joe,
Yes it was a good set of results today.
I did try to post my selections earlier this evening, but again encountered problems, if this post is accepted, I will try again.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
First day of Royal Ascot for which I have 3 selections, albeit the first 2 are blatantly obvious, albeit perversely I still believe that they offer a bit of value event at best odds of 1/5 and 4/5 respectively.
2.30 Ascot – BAAEED
4.20 Ascot – COROEBUS
However, I think I have also found a nice each way shot to nothing @ 8/1 with 5 places on offer.
5.35 Ascot – JUAN ELCANO
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
My lottery number will be 14.
For my horse racing selection, I will go for one against the odds on favourite HONITON, who appears to be a bit exposed after 4 career starts in the 4.35 at Sandown, tomorrow.
FINDONO is the only 4yo in the race so has to give weight for age to all of his 11 rivals in this race, but has finished third on both of his starts, so he clearly has ability, whilst Jamie Spencer is just the jockey to navigate what could prove to be a tricky draw in Stall 12.
Good luck everyone.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I would like to join in the fun, but have not been an active member for some time now, so will understand if you give preference to regular contributors.
Cheers,
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I am no closer to narrowing down my selections for the Cheltenham Festival, but have spent a fair bit of time reading the thoughts of a number of pundits and undertaking plenty of background analysis, so at least I feel that I am making some progress.
In particular, I have undertaken further analysis regarding the Gigginstown, Gordon Elliott combination to identify key race types, linked to the use of certain jockeys.
I have also identified a number of preferences for the top jockeys based on race types (hurdles/fences), course (old or new) and grade of race (Grade 1, Handicaps and other lower grade non handicaps), which I hope will provide a useful angle.
I see you have selected WHISKEY SOUR for the Randox County Hurdle, which is a race in which Willie Mullins has a strong record, he is certainly an interesting contender, especially if he ends up being ridden by Paul Townend, who is rather a specialist at the festival when riding over the smaller obstacles.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
You have got well ahead of me on this thread and I doubt that I will be able to chat he up in the near future.
However, I have a few comments which may be worth considering, as follows:
Coral Cup
As with the Ultima Handicap Chase, I have a few alternative trends which may assist us to unravel this conundrum:
No older than 8 years – 10/10
Last ran at least 30 days ago – 9/10
SP no shorter than 12/1 – 9/10 (not easy to assess in advance of the race).
Carried at least 11.02 – 5/6
Top 2 finish last time – 6/10
French bred – 5/10 for level stake profit of 31.00 pts (all 5 winners aged 7 years, or younger).
Cross Country Chase
It may be worth noting that this race has only been a Conditions event since 2016, having previously been framed as a handicap.
Therefore, it may be not be appropriate to apply the trends to this year’s race.
In reality, barring accidents it appears that TIGER ROLL has strong claims in his attempt to retain his crown, albeit current best odds of 5/4 are in my opinion far to short to consider a bet at this stage.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Just had a quick look at ANNIE ODDS and I doubt that I would have considered her on Thursday, so your air of mysticism remains intact.
I rarely even bother looking at Novice Handicap Hurdles, or Chases at any meeting as there is generally too little form for me to feel comfortable, plus the VALUE CALCULATOR tends to struggle in these races, so I doubt that I will be getting involved in the Close Brothers sponsored event.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
When I get around to analysing the Ultima Handicap Chase, I shall start by applying some of the following trends to reduce the number of horses that I have to consider in more detail.
Previous Cheltenham Festival run – 10/10
Days since last run no more than 45 – 9/10
Official Rating no lower than 142 – 8/10
No more than 9 chase starts – 8/10
Aged 6-8 years – 8/10
Last ran over at least 3 miles – 8/10
In addition, it is worth noting that last time out winners have been successful in 4 of the past 10 renewals, from 42 qualifiers for a level stake profit of 15.00 pts.
Will be interesting to see how our shortlists compare, as some of the above trends sort of contradict a few of those which you have quoted – both views are correct, but consider the underlying stats from a different perspective.
All the best.
Rob.
RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
We have another partial match in the JLT Novices’ Chase, as my current list of interesting horses is a follows:
DEFI DU SEUIL (10/3)
KIDISART (16/1)
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (25/1)
VINNDICATION (12/1)
My only concern for KIDISART is that he is prone to jumping errors, but he certainly has a big engine and could be top class if he learns to jump consistently well.
As for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle, I have not undertaken any analysis on the individual entries, but all 3 previous winners were trained by Willie Mullins and started favourite.
He doesn’t appear to have a hotpot this year, but he has a host of entries and I would not be surprised if he trained the winner again this time, perhaps at tasty odds, the trouble is which mare?
All the best.
Rob.
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