[Robmull]

Hi Suds,

Good idea – I suggest we go for the 2.35, as the smaller field will be more manageable whilst we get to grips with this experiment.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A pleasant stress free early afternoon, with WEST OF BALLY winning and TORPS finishing second in their respective races for a profit of 2.7 pts.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

None of the reserves have got into the race, so the original VALUE CALCULATOR analysis stands.

Unfortunately, the Bookmakers have revised their odds for the race, subsequent to the removal of the reserves and have effectively sucked virtually all the value out of the market, with the exception of KOOLIO KATE who is generally available at 40/1, against the VC predicted odds of 33/1.

Not a huge margin and the fact that she didn’t make my initial shortlist for the race gives me no confidence to suggest that she should be backed.

I will therefore pass on this race, albeit this provides a valuable lesson to all punters in that on occasions all the time and effort put into thoroughly analysing can lead to nothing.

We have to be patient and wait for the right opportunity to present itself!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

There are 2 very short priced selections today at Limerick:

12.35 – WEST OF BALLY – 11 pts for 7 places @ 1/10
1.05 – TORPS – 16 pts for 7 places @ 1/11

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Here is the output of the VALUE CALCULATOR using the tweaks that I mentioned earlier:

WEST OF BALLY – 4/5
BUTCH COOLIDGE – 9/1
MISTYBURN – 21/2
OPERA POINT – 15/1
CASTLE CROIUL – 22/1
KOOLIO KATE – 33/1
DEANERY CHARLIE – 45/1
GREY GARDENS – 45/1

All of the remaining runners are 90/1 shots, other than the reserves.

The above odds are based on a 100% book and therefore are not subject to the bookmakers over round (their theoretical profit margin for the race), which means that the prices tend to be larger than those available from the bookmakers.

Value lies with any runners for which the bookmakers are offering bigger odds than those calculated by the VC, so at this time the 10/11 available for the favourite WEST OF BALLY offers marginal value.

If any of the reserves get into the race, then the whole tissue will have to be recalculated, but I have listed below indicative odds as follows:

CHANGEYOURSTARS – 13/1
KEEP THE HEAD – 33/1
LORD PRAETORIAN – 19/2

I hope the above makes sense and happy to answer any questions.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Everything was going to plan with the top 5 selections doing enough to provide a positive return, but then MR WONKA could only finish fifth, which reduced today’s profit to just 1.8 pts.

Law of averages suggested that the system was due a loser before long, so not a major issue.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Thanks for raising the issue of Tuesday’s first race at Limerick, as it has started me thinking of the tweaks required to make the VALUE CALCULATOR more relevant for Irish Maiden Hurdles.

I think I have had a eureka moment!!

Before I explain my VC theory, I will quickly document how I tackle Irish Maiden Hurdles in general.

My first task is to review the previous runnings of the race to identify the minimum RPR required to achieve a top half finish in the past – for this race the minimum RPR required to finish at least 7th (14 runners are due to go to post this year) is 106.

Only WEST OF BALLY has achieved this level of form over hurdles – so he automatically makes the shortlist.

I then check each other runner to identify those who have previously run an RPR within 14 lbs of the minimum required figure (92 in this particular instance, or 85 for mares), in either National Hunt Flat, Hurdle or Chases – these are then added to the shortlist.

The I look for previous runners in ordinary flat races (turf and all weather) who have recorded an RPR within 35 lbs of the minimum figure (71 for this race, or 64 for mares) and add qualifiers to the shortlist.

Finally, I check for runners that have achieved a minimum RPR of 86 (79 for mares) in an Irish Point to Point and add them to the shortlist.

This gives me a group of horses that are most likely record a top half finish in the race.

The list for the 12.35 at Limerick is as follows:

WEST OF BALLY (106 Hurdle)
LORD PRAETORIAN (104 INHF) – reserve, so may not run
BUTCH COOLRIDGE (103 INHF)
CASTLE CROIUIL (97 Chase)
MISTYBURN (94 INHF)
OPERA POINT (93 Hurdle)
CHANGEYOURSTARS (mare 81 PTP) – reserve, so may not run

I can now concentrate on a shortlist of between 5 to 7 candidates with WEST OF BALLY, LORD PRAETORIAN and BUTCH COOLRIDGE appearing to be the most likely to trouble the judges.

As for incorporating this within the VC analysis to produce tissue odds, I will experiment on tweaking the values for form and ability on the Racing Post POSTDATA table on the basis that whilst none of the runners are likely to be world beaters, they have achieved enough to date to suggest that they have a chance of being the best of a bad bunch.

I will provide my VC based prices this evening.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Yes I am pleased that the system is currently producing above target returns, but just one heavily backed loser can cause a significant dent in profits over the short term.

To put your mind at rest regarding the size on my stakes, I can confirm that the value of each point is small compared with my past betting exploits, plus I could afford to lose the initial betting bank of 50 pts and with the bank sitting at over 200 pts, I am basically playing with the Bookies money, so not that scary.

PS – I will share my thoughts on the issue you raised on the protected thread, once I have sorted out a few things.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

This is a busy day for the system, as there are plenty of selections.

11.50 Navan – THE STORE BOY – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/9

1.35 Navan – ACE BRANNIGAN – 10 pts for 4 places @ 4/19

1.35 Navan – THEFLYINGKING – 5 pts for 4 places @ 4/19

2.10 Navan – THE YELLOW CLAY – 5 pts for 3 places @ 1/7 (placed at 6.20 pm on Friday)

3.35 Newcastle – NEBRAS – 5 pts for 4 places @ 2/7

4.40 Newcastle – MR WONKA – 5 pts for 4 places @ 4/17

Fingers crossed for some good performances.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Even though neither of us were overly keen on the race, we didn’t do too badly as we both secured a profit on our bet builders

KALYPSO’CHANCE (won) with the BIG CLUBMAN (second) for 3pts profit.

THE BIG CLUBMAN (second), FRANKIE JOHN (third) and ECLIPSE CHASER (4th) for 5.5pts profit.

My other selection BLUE WATERS was only beaten 3/4 lengths behind the fourth finisher for a 1pt loss.

The VALUE CALCULATOR predicted that WALKS IN JUNE was overrated which worked out with him finishing sixth of the seven runners.

Also well done to Suds and Hopeful who both highlighted KALYPSO’CHANCE in their shortlists.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Good to get a useful return under the belt so early in the day, thanks to WACKESTONE (third) and FLASHAWAY (winner) providing a 11.5 pt profit.

There should be plenty of selections tomorrow, assuming Navan’s rescheduled Saturday card gets the go ahead.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Interesting that you build in an over round for your tissue prices, as the VALUE CALCULATOR always produces a 100% book, so it is unlikely that our figures will agree for any runner – not a problem, but good to understand any discrepancies.

As we now have just 7 runners, I have recalculated the VC odds, as follows:

KALYPSO’CHANCE – 15/8
ECLIPSE CHASER – 3/1
THE BIG CLUBMAN – 8/1
BLUE WATERS – 8/1
FRANKIE JOHN – 18/1
WALKS IN JUNE – 18/1
PHOENIX ARIZONA – 45/1

The only real outlier is WALKS IN JUNE, which I know should be a lot shorter on the VC figures, but I can’t start tweaking the inputs for just one runner at this stage of the experiment.

I am struggling to find a bet, but based on the VC figures I will go with:

Betbuilder – KALYPSO’CHANCE (top 2 finish) and THE BIG CLUBMAN (top 4 finish) @ 3/1

Top 4 finish – BLUE WATERS @ 5/4

Fingers crossed!!

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A couple of selections for today at Navan:

11.47 – WACKESTONE – 11 pts for 6 places @ 2/15
12.17 – FLASHAWAY – 11 pts for 10 places @ 10/11

All the best,

Rob..

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Interesting to compare our separate tissues, although I think you have lost MA JACKS HILL?

Our tissues seem to have very differing views regarding the chance of WALKS IN JUNE (15/2 vs 33/1).

I will return with my selection(s) once the alternative markets are available.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As promised, here are the true odds for each of the 10 runners based on the VALUE CALCULATOR, in racecard order:

I’LL SORT THAT – 10/3

ECLIPSE CHASER – 11/2

FRANKIE JOHN – 33/1

KALYPSO’CHANCE – 4/1

MA JACKS HILL – 13/2

PHOENIX ARIZONA – 80/1

THE BIG CLUBMAN – 12/1

THEFLYINGKING – 33/1

WALKS IN JUNE – 33/1

BLUE WATERS – 12/1

In my opinion the figures for both the FLYINGKING and especially WALKS IN JUNE vastly underestimate their chance of winning, but I can’t start tweaking the VC without understanding the issues with the current methodology.

That said, the two runners that appear to have been underestimated by the Bookmakers and may provide us with some value in the alternative markets are MA JACKS HILL and BLUE WATERS, who are currently available at 16/1 and 33/1 respectively.

Hope this information is of assistance,

Rob.

[Author]

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