[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As the old saying goes – “pride comes before a fall”.

For the first time since I started this system back at the beginning of May, two successive selections have failed with KOM TU VOUDRAS finishing only tenth.

Having viewed the coverage of the race, I would not be surprised if the mare suffered a minor injury, as she weakened so quickly after losing the lead, but perhaps I am just clutching at straws, when in reality it was a case of poor judgement on my behalf as I decided at the last moment to ‘play safe’ on the favourite rather than betting on my intended selection TWO PAIR.

Still a loser is a loser for whatever reason and at least BANDE ORGANISE finished third for a 0.8 pt return on investment, resulting in a loss for the day of 10.2 pts.

Without further soul searching I will draw a line under today and start the necessary processes to hopefully claw back the profits that have been lent back to the bookmakers over the past couple of days.

Fingers crossed!!

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

It has taken a lot of time and effort to develop this system, with plenty of failures on the way, plus some courage to continue when informed opinion tends to suggest that you cannot make a profit betting at short odds.

Today’s selections are:

12.00 Fairyhouse – KOM TU VOUDRAS – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/9

3.45 Chepstow – BANDE ORGANISEE – 5 pts for 6 places @ 1/7

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well done Hopefull and Mike – 1st, 4th – 5th and 2nd is a great result in a tricky handicap hurdle.

No luck with my theoretical each way on DOWN AROUND who could only finish 6th, but I am not too downhearted as the 8/1 that I would have secured certainly proved value odds as his SP was 7/2.

The VALUE CALCULATOR also highlighted the winner PLUNKET STREET at 9/2, so his SP of 5/1 would have also provided marginal value.

It is also interesting that the VC analysis indicated that LIBERATED LIGHT, NO DEMAND and MISTER BOX as the 3 biggest outsiders at 66/1, 200/1 and 140/1 against SPs of 40/1, 25/1 and 12/1 and they ended up filling the final 3 finishing positions.

Early days, but it appears that the VC analysis may prove a useful tool for identifying value selections in Irish handicap hurdles going forward.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Another day that was going to plan with DIVABORIVA finishing second and BIRTHDAY ANGEL winning, prior to MINELLA EMPEROR being pulled up after being badly hampered at the first hurdle, resulting in a loss of 2.3 pts.

Still these things happen and the overall performance of the system remains on target at the end of week 3 despite suffering 2 losing bets this week.

Winners: 30 – Bets 33 – Strike Rate: 90.9%

Stakes: 266 pts – Returns 304.8 pts – Profit: 38.8 pts – Return On Investment: 14.6%

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The selections for today are as follows:

1.25 Thurles – DIVABORIVA – 16 pts for 5 places @ 1/10

2.45 Wincanton – BIRTHDAY ANGEL – 10 pts for 5 places @ 1/7

3.45 Thurles – MINELLA EMPEROR – 5 pts for 10 places @ 1/6

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Folks,

I must admit that like Mike, my least favourite type of race for betting purposes is handicaps hurdles, especially low grade Irish events, so I have a lot of work to do to get up to speed.

The VALUE CALCULATOR odds for this race are as follows:

DOWN AROUND – 7/4
PLUNKET STREET – 9/2
GIANT HAYSTACKS – 7/1
LAMBAY ISLAND – 8/1
SPHAGNUM – 25/1
HATFIELD HAMMER – 25/1
MISS MINI BEE – 50/1
DGALWAYGALLIVANTOR – 50/1
ARCTIC PIPER – 50/1
KAZBEK – 50/1
MISTER BOX – 140/1
NO DEMAND – 200/1

The indicative odds for the two reserves are:

MISS LIA – 11/2
LADY ISUELT – 150/1

Some of the above odds may appear rather strange, especially the big odds suggested for the runners I have quoted at 25/1 or greater, however I am reasonably comfortable with the analysis as the quotes for the 5 runners at the top of the VC analysis are fairly close to those offered by the bookmakers.

In my opinion, the two runners that offer value based on the VC odds are DOWN AROUND and the reserve MISS LIA who can both the backed at 8/1.

I will not be around tomorrow, so will nail my colours to the mast now and my preference is DOWN UNDER each way 1/5th odds for 4 places @ 8/1 with B365.

Good luck everyone.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A second place finish for GUESTIMATE has provided a 2.2 pts profit for today.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just one selection today on the all weather in the 5.10 at Kempton:

GUESTIMATE – 10 pts for 7 places @ 4/19

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Suds,

Good idea – I suggest we go for the 2.35, as the smaller field will be more manageable whilst we get to grips with this experiment.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A pleasant stress free early afternoon, with WEST OF BALLY winning and TORPS finishing second in their respective races for a profit of 2.7 pts.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

None of the reserves have got into the race, so the original VALUE CALCULATOR analysis stands.

Unfortunately, the Bookmakers have revised their odds for the race, subsequent to the removal of the reserves and have effectively sucked virtually all the value out of the market, with the exception of KOOLIO KATE who is generally available at 40/1, against the VC predicted odds of 33/1.

Not a huge margin and the fact that she didn’t make my initial shortlist for the race gives me no confidence to suggest that she should be backed.

I will therefore pass on this race, albeit this provides a valuable lesson to all punters in that on occasions all the time and effort put into thoroughly analysing can lead to nothing.

We have to be patient and wait for the right opportunity to present itself!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

There are 2 very short priced selections today at Limerick:

12.35 – WEST OF BALLY – 11 pts for 7 places @ 1/10
1.05 – TORPS – 16 pts for 7 places @ 1/11

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Here is the output of the VALUE CALCULATOR using the tweaks that I mentioned earlier:

WEST OF BALLY – 4/5
BUTCH COOLIDGE – 9/1
MISTYBURN – 21/2
OPERA POINT – 15/1
CASTLE CROIUL – 22/1
KOOLIO KATE – 33/1
DEANERY CHARLIE – 45/1
GREY GARDENS – 45/1

All of the remaining runners are 90/1 shots, other than the reserves.

The above odds are based on a 100% book and therefore are not subject to the bookmakers over round (their theoretical profit margin for the race), which means that the prices tend to be larger than those available from the bookmakers.

Value lies with any runners for which the bookmakers are offering bigger odds than those calculated by the VC, so at this time the 10/11 available for the favourite WEST OF BALLY offers marginal value.

If any of the reserves get into the race, then the whole tissue will have to be recalculated, but I have listed below indicative odds as follows:

CHANGEYOURSTARS – 13/1
KEEP THE HEAD – 33/1
LORD PRAETORIAN – 19/2

I hope the above makes sense and happy to answer any questions.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Everything was going to plan with the top 5 selections doing enough to provide a positive return, but then MR WONKA could only finish fifth, which reduced today’s profit to just 1.8 pts.

Law of averages suggested that the system was due a loser before long, so not a major issue.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Thanks for raising the issue of Tuesday’s first race at Limerick, as it has started me thinking of the tweaks required to make the VALUE CALCULATOR more relevant for Irish Maiden Hurdles.

I think I have had a eureka moment!!

Before I explain my VC theory, I will quickly document how I tackle Irish Maiden Hurdles in general.

My first task is to review the previous runnings of the race to identify the minimum RPR required to achieve a top half finish in the past – for this race the minimum RPR required to finish at least 7th (14 runners are due to go to post this year) is 106.

Only WEST OF BALLY has achieved this level of form over hurdles – so he automatically makes the shortlist.

I then check each other runner to identify those who have previously run an RPR within 14 lbs of the minimum required figure (92 in this particular instance, or 85 for mares), in either National Hunt Flat, Hurdle or Chases – these are then added to the shortlist.

The I look for previous runners in ordinary flat races (turf and all weather) who have recorded an RPR within 35 lbs of the minimum figure (71 for this race, or 64 for mares) and add qualifiers to the shortlist.

Finally, I check for runners that have achieved a minimum RPR of 86 (79 for mares) in an Irish Point to Point and add them to the shortlist.

This gives me a group of horses that are most likely record a top half finish in the race.

The list for the 12.35 at Limerick is as follows:

WEST OF BALLY (106 Hurdle)
LORD PRAETORIAN (104 INHF) – reserve, so may not run
BUTCH COOLRIDGE (103 INHF)
CASTLE CROIUIL (97 Chase)
MISTYBURN (94 INHF)
OPERA POINT (93 Hurdle)
CHANGEYOURSTARS (mare 81 PTP) – reserve, so may not run

I can now concentrate on a shortlist of between 5 to 7 candidates with WEST OF BALLY, LORD PRAETORIAN and BUTCH COOLRIDGE appearing to be the most likely to trouble the judges.

As for incorporating this within the VC analysis to produce tissue odds, I will experiment on tweaking the values for form and ability on the Racing Post POSTDATA table on the basis that whilst none of the runners are likely to be world beaters, they have achieved enough to date to suggest that they have a chance of being the best of a bad bunch.

I will provide my VC based prices this evening.

All the best,

Rob.

[Author]

Posts