[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I have no problem with using Maiden Hurdles as the starting point, but wondered whether we could stretch to Novice Hurdles, for a couple of reasons:

Firstly, there tend to be fewer runners, therefore quicker and easier to analyse.

Secondly, most if not all runners will have run over hurdles, so should be covered by the database.

I also have a quick question regarding going allowances – are you using the official going as reported by the course, or the going used by Topspeed in the RP, which often differ – see Clonmel on Thursday and Naas on Sunday – could make quite a significant difference to the speed figures?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Second place for DERRYHASSEN PADDY has provided a small profit of 0.9 pts for today.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi guys,

I will be happy to fit in with the consensus, but have a few ideas that may be worth considering:

1. Perhaps we should concentrate on one race type to start with – whichever plays best to the strengths of the database?

2. Perhaps we should start slowly and work on just one or two target races per week, until we understand how long it takes to provide our input?

3. Regarding input, it may be worth agreeing what analysis each individual will be responsible for, so that we can minimise duplication of effort – I am more than happy to provide a shortlist of runners that are likely to perform well based on some simple metrics from previous runnings of the races in question, plus an odds tissue based on the VALUE CALCULATOR.

4. We try to identify the target races at the earliest opportunity, ideally at the four day entry stage, or at the latest as soon as the final declarations are posted on the Racing Post website, so that we have sufficient time to complete our analysis.

Look forward to reading additional ideas.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

It looks likely that most of the system selections will be concentrated over the weekend this week, albeit I do have one for tomorrow at Ayr.

2.50 – DERRYHASSEN PADDY – 5 pts for 2 places @ 1/6

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi guys,

I fully support Mike’s proposal to limit access to this thread and will have a look to see whether I can tweak the VALUE CALCULATOR to make it more relevant to Irish Hurdle races.

Shouldn’t be too difficult for open Graded/Listed events and handicaps (albeit a little time consuming for big field events) and I will have another crack at overcoming the issues with novice/maiden races.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A second place finish for MURAT and victory for LETOS has provided a 2.8 pts profit for today.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A couple of selections for today at Naas.

12.50 – MURAT – 10 pts for 9 places @ 1/12

2.27 – LETOS – 5 pts for 7 places @ 4/11

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Excellent – look forward to collaborating on the next race.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Your 100/1 BB was certainly a brave attempt in what appeared to be a tough race to call, which was in my opinion was proven by the fact that only 25 lengths covered the top 10 finishers, despite the heavy ground.

I think this race could provide some interesting additions to our trackers.

I don’t know whether you would be interested, but I have a theory for finding top finishers in Irish Maiden Hurdles, which may assist with the analysis of such events on this thread in the future.

Basically, I ignore the odds in the win market and instead try to rank each runners’ likely finishing position based on known form, potential to improve, breeding, plus the strength of trainer/jockey both in maiden hurdles and over the course.

I won’t bore you with the full list of runners for today’s race, but here are the rankings for a few of the main players:

Thedevilyouknow: 1-3 – won
Skylight Hustle: 1-3 – second
The Passing Wife: 1-3 – third
Whatsanotheryear: 4-6 – sixth
Gillane: 7-9 – fifth
Beckistine: 5-8 – nineth
Jukebox Johnny: 11-14 – fourteenth

I am not promising that I can predict future races as accurately as this one, but happy to share my thoughts in the future, if you believe it will help?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

An excellent afternoon with LIKEALIGHTSWITCH finishing third and BECKISTINE scraping a ninth place finish, thus producing a 13.5 pts profit.

Hopefully, there will be a selection, or two for tomorrow.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The selections for today are as follows:

2.13 Gowran Park – LIKEALIGHTSWITCH – 10 pts for 9 places @ 5/13

2.45 Gowran Park – BECKISTINE – 10 pts for 10 places @ 20/21

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Well you have certainly picked a tough race to kick off this thread!!

To start with there are 3 very promising unknowns over hurdles who have shown well above average ability in Irish PTPs and /or Bumpers, namely:

Skylight Hustle
The Passing Wife
Thedeviluno

If they are fit on their seasonal debuts and take to hurdles, they could easily fill the first 3 finishing positions.

Whatsanotheryear is clear on hurdles RPRs and is a feasible top 3 finisher, but is making his seasonal debut, so may not be at his best.

Mister Box, Gillane and Jukebox Johnny are also making their seasonal debuts and will probably need to improve significantly on what they have achieved so far to be involved in the finish.

Whilst Mister Loolah and Ballingaine Girl have proven their fitness, but have not performed to a level to suggest that they can get involved in the finish.

That leaves BECKISTINE, who has the second highest hurdles RPR of 118, which he achieved on heavy ground and has shown his fitness when recently finishing fourth on his return from a break, although he is an unlikely winner (not an Each Way Extra candidate) and will probably find a few too good to hit the places.

In my opinion there are too many unknowns to warrant a bet on most of the alternative markets, but this is certainly a race to watch and I suspect it will generate some tracker entries.

Barring accidents I would suggest that BECKINSTINE is the most solid option for a Top Finish bet (should be up to 10 places on offer), albeit individual punters must decide the level of risk v reward they are comfortable with.

Just seen the first odds from Betfair, PP and Sky which have him 8th favourite in the market at 20/1 – which is bigger than I had expected.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

There were no selections today, so I thought I should provide a brief update on how the system has performed since the thread started, as it can be confusing due to the high strike rate and the variable staking plan.

Total Bets: 10 – Successful Bets: 9 – Strike Rate: 90%

Total Stakes: 95 pts – Total Returns: 99 pts – Profit: 4 pts – Return On Investment 4.2%

The system has therefore achieved the first stated aim to produce around a 90% strike rate, but has fallen short of the ROI target of 10%, albeit at least it has produced a profit in the first week and to be fair a sample size of 10 bets is rather low to be drawing too many conclusions.

Hopefully, there will be some selections tomorrow.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Thanks guys,

As you can see from my earlier post, whilst I was fairly confident that IL ETAIT TEMPS would convert his penalty kick, I was not expecting HAITI COULEURS to score points this time.

I reckon he will be awarded a career best hurdles RPR of around 150 for this victory, which is a 14 lbs improvement on his previous best over the small obstacles.

If he can achieve a similar improvement over fences next time, hopefully in the Coral Gold Cup he should go close, but will still need to find at least another 14 lbs improvement to win either of his trainer’s stated end of season target races, namely the Cheltenham Gold Cup and/or Grand National, which are the races that I chose him to cover.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Victories for both selections today has resulted in a 2 pts profit.

Rob.

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