[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I will provide my usual analysis.

It appears that the races at Thurles have been shuffled, so the timings are different – please confirm that you wanted to play the Mares Maiden Hurdle, which was originally scheduled for 2.32, but is now set to be run at 1.57?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just one selection today.

12.35 Tramore – MOODY GIRL – 11 pts for 5 places @ 4/15

Fingers crossed!!

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Having completed a full analysis of the systems performance over the past couple of days, I have concluded that there is nothing inherently wrong with the idea, albeit there are a few issues that I need to address, which I hope will improve the results going forward.

Firstly, I need to concentrate on the type of races which play to my strengths, which means ditching NHF races, Chases and handicaps, all of which have generated results that have not met the 90/10 targets.

Secondly, reducing the number of potential selections, should increase the amount of time I have to properly assess my remaining selections, which will hopefully reduce the risk of making poor choices.

Perhaps, less is more, so I will tentatively return to the fray at Tramore tomorrow, assuming that I can identify a worthy selection, or two.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Another disastrous day for the system, as whilst the first 3 selections had no trouble generating small returns, both ROCKY’S DIAMOND (fourth) and GRANDY LANE (sixth) failed. resulting in a loss of 12.7 pts.

At this stage I don’t know what has gone wrong – 5 losers in 6 days is catastrophic when betting at very short odds and I need some time to think things through, otherwise I will soon have wiped out all the profits that had accrued before last Thursday.

I have therefore decided to take a “time out” to enable me to reconsider my selection strategy, as I am convinced that the system targets are achievable, provided I get the selection criteria right.

I will return to this thread once I have a plan, but in the meantime will continue to participate on the site.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Irrespective of the 16 pt anomaly, this has been a very profitable “ridiculous idea”, which clearly shows the benefit of going against the crowd.

Well done and please try not to lose it all during the last few weeks of the year!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

There may be something in your theory and I would be interested in seeing your conclusions once you have run and analysed the data.

I always try to identify selections that are either proven on or are bred to handle the prevailing underfoot conditions, but like you have noticed that extremes of going can on occasions generate what appear to be unfathomable results.

That said, the first of the losers appears to have just had a bad day running 10 lbs below his best RPR which he achieved over the same track and trip on the all weather, whilst the second loser was pulled up having been badly hampered at the first hurdle, which is just a couple of unfortunate instances, which are impossible to foretell in advance.

Yesterday’s loser was just a last minute dubious call by yours truly, as her credentials for handling heavy ground were borderline at best, but she seemed to be OK in the lead until head, after which she weakened as if something was wrong with her – I guess it is unlikely that I will ever find out the reason for her poor effort, but will steer clear of her in future.

Fingers crossed for today’s selections!!

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I think I may have strayed into panic mode today, as I am feeling a bit shellshocked after 3 losers in less than a week, which has caused me to take ridiculously short odds on the top 3 of the 5 selections at Punchestown today.

11.30 – COMBS – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/14

11.30 – QUINTA DO LAGO – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/14

12.00 – SANTO SOSPIR – 11 pts for 10 places @ 1/16

1.05 – ROCKY’S DIAMOND – 5 pts for 3 places @ 1/3

3.20 – GRANDY LANE – 10 pts for 4 places @ 1/10

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

As the old saying goes – “pride comes before a fall”.

For the first time since I started this system back at the beginning of May, two successive selections have failed with KOM TU VOUDRAS finishing only tenth.

Having viewed the coverage of the race, I would not be surprised if the mare suffered a minor injury, as she weakened so quickly after losing the lead, but perhaps I am just clutching at straws, when in reality it was a case of poor judgement on my behalf as I decided at the last moment to ‘play safe’ on the favourite rather than betting on my intended selection TWO PAIR.

Still a loser is a loser for whatever reason and at least BANDE ORGANISE finished third for a 0.8 pt return on investment, resulting in a loss for the day of 10.2 pts.

Without further soul searching I will draw a line under today and start the necessary processes to hopefully claw back the profits that have been lent back to the bookmakers over the past couple of days.

Fingers crossed!!

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

It has taken a lot of time and effort to develop this system, with plenty of failures on the way, plus some courage to continue when informed opinion tends to suggest that you cannot make a profit betting at short odds.

Today’s selections are:

12.00 Fairyhouse – KOM TU VOUDRAS – 11 pts for 8 places @ 1/9

3.45 Chepstow – BANDE ORGANISEE – 5 pts for 6 places @ 1/7

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well done Hopefull and Mike – 1st, 4th – 5th and 2nd is a great result in a tricky handicap hurdle.

No luck with my theoretical each way on DOWN AROUND who could only finish 6th, but I am not too downhearted as the 8/1 that I would have secured certainly proved value odds as his SP was 7/2.

The VALUE CALCULATOR also highlighted the winner PLUNKET STREET at 9/2, so his SP of 5/1 would have also provided marginal value.

It is also interesting that the VC analysis indicated that LIBERATED LIGHT, NO DEMAND and MISTER BOX as the 3 biggest outsiders at 66/1, 200/1 and 140/1 against SPs of 40/1, 25/1 and 12/1 and they ended up filling the final 3 finishing positions.

Early days, but it appears that the VC analysis may prove a useful tool for identifying value selections in Irish handicap hurdles going forward.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Another day that was going to plan with DIVABORIVA finishing second and BIRTHDAY ANGEL winning, prior to MINELLA EMPEROR being pulled up after being badly hampered at the first hurdle, resulting in a loss of 2.3 pts.

Still these things happen and the overall performance of the system remains on target at the end of week 3 despite suffering 2 losing bets this week.

Winners: 30 – Bets 33 – Strike Rate: 90.9%

Stakes: 266 pts – Returns 304.8 pts – Profit: 38.8 pts – Return On Investment: 14.6%

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The selections for today are as follows:

1.25 Thurles – DIVABORIVA – 16 pts for 5 places @ 1/10

2.45 Wincanton – BIRTHDAY ANGEL – 10 pts for 5 places @ 1/7

3.45 Thurles – MINELLA EMPEROR – 5 pts for 10 places @ 1/6

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Folks,

I must admit that like Mike, my least favourite type of race for betting purposes is handicaps hurdles, especially low grade Irish events, so I have a lot of work to do to get up to speed.

The VALUE CALCULATOR odds for this race are as follows:

DOWN AROUND – 7/4
PLUNKET STREET – 9/2
GIANT HAYSTACKS – 7/1
LAMBAY ISLAND – 8/1
SPHAGNUM – 25/1
HATFIELD HAMMER – 25/1
MISS MINI BEE – 50/1
DGALWAYGALLIVANTOR – 50/1
ARCTIC PIPER – 50/1
KAZBEK – 50/1
MISTER BOX – 140/1
NO DEMAND – 200/1

The indicative odds for the two reserves are:

MISS LIA – 11/2
LADY ISUELT – 150/1

Some of the above odds may appear rather strange, especially the big odds suggested for the runners I have quoted at 25/1 or greater, however I am reasonably comfortable with the analysis as the quotes for the 5 runners at the top of the VC analysis are fairly close to those offered by the bookmakers.

In my opinion, the two runners that offer value based on the VC odds are DOWN AROUND and the reserve MISS LIA who can both the backed at 8/1.

I will not be around tomorrow, so will nail my colours to the mast now and my preference is DOWN UNDER each way 1/5th odds for 4 places @ 8/1 with B365.

Good luck everyone.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

A second place finish for GUESTIMATE has provided a 2.2 pts profit for today.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Just one selection today on the all weather in the 5.10 at Kempton:

GUESTIMATE – 10 pts for 7 places @ 4/19

Rob.

[Author]

Posts