[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Sorry to hear about your electrical issues at home.

These bet builders are proving rather frustrating, as at first sight it appears relatively easy to find 2 or 3 selections to finish in the top half of the race, but there always something that ends up scuppering our bets.

This is especially annoying when we often reach a consensus in respect of one or two big priced candidates that end up running well.

I am wondering whether producing shortlists equal to the maximum number of places on offer is the appropriate way forward, as you may recall in one of my earlier posts that I mentioned a method of predicting likely finishing positions based on each runners position in the shortlist, e.g. top of list likely to finish in top 4, fifth in list likely to finish 5th to 8th, etc.

If we were to adopt this approach we could reduce the size of the shortlists, by limiting them to 3 positions less than the maximum places on offer, e.g. 14 runner race – top 4 rated, 18 runners – top 6 rated, 20 or more runners – top 7 rated.

We can then, dismiss the obvious candidates and concentrate on any outsiders which at least 2 of the group have shortlisted.

We may only get 1, or 2 selections from each race, but we could always perm these in cross race bet builders.

Just a thought – worth a go?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well that was close and a surprise, as I thought Suds had pipped me to the post, after LOVE ME TENDER was declared a non runner and ROMEO COOLIO was successful.

Thanks for putting up the free bets Mike and a great idea that Suds should be awarded one for just missing out.

Plenty of time for the other participants to catch up, as this competition is very much a long distance race and not a sprint.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I am not sure that I can offer much for the handicaps, but here are my lists for the two Maiden Hurdles:

12.05 Clonmel

1 – LOYAL PRAETORIAN
2 – MYSTIC MALINA
3 – BARRAKILLA VAGE
4 – WATTY SHOW
5 – JUSTATAN
5 – MISTYBURN
7 – KOFINO
8 – KANPAI

1.35 Clonmel

1 – PARNELL STREET
2 – BOEDIC ( Reserve)
3 – THAT DANNY FEELING
4 – MINELLA EMPEROR
4 – SPINNINGAYARN
6 – LADY LENA (Reserve)
7 – BECTIVE BRIDGE
8 – ECO PETE
8 – JISKO DU BREM
10 – BALLYREDINKINGSTON
10 – COOLADDI

I have provided a top 11 for this race as my second a sixth choices are reserves and therefore may not get a run.

All the best.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I can probably provide a top 10 for most of these races, but would suggest that we list them in our order of preference, as the lowest rated may just be making up the numbers.

Perhaps Mike has hit the nail on the head and we should try thinking the “unthinkable” by discounting the most likely candidates and aiming to get a few less fancied selections to finish within the maximum number of places on offer.

Perhaps this is one of those projects where the value and profits are made by accepting a low strike rate, but occasionally hitting the jackpot?

I remain confident that between us we can find a solution to this conundrum.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

No problem- I hadn’t even noticed he was running until I viewed the results.

Great to see that this month’s competition will be going to the wire – good luck Suds with your selections.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Just noticed that you missed JIMMY DE SEIUL – 11.36 Fairyhouse today from your list of runners over the weekend, who was a late replacement on my list.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I didn’t see you post while typing up my thoughts.

It will be interesting to see which approach, works – or whether we both blow out.

Good luck.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I have just permed the following runners using a free bet balance with B365 to test the water.

SKYLIGHT HUSTLE – 7 places
CASTERLY ROCK – 7 places
MINELLA DIAMOND – 8 places
DYSART DOLOMITE – 8 places
RONY HAS – 9 places
READY TO ROAD – 9 places
EYETRAP – 10 places
IT’S NOT HIS FAULT – 10 places

Not a full perm, but have tried to provide some level of insurance fro just 5 lines, as follows:

Line 1: SH + CR + MD + RH @ 3/1
Line 2 : SH + CR + DD + RTR @ 13/5
Line 3: SH + CR + DD + EYETRAP @ 15/4
Line 4: SH + MD + DD + INHF @ 5/2
Line 5: CR + MD + RH + RTR @ 15/2

Just a bit of fun.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

I agree with Mike that this is not an easy race to price up, which is also shown by the fact that not all bookmakers appear with odds on the Racing Post website and those that have do so show some marked discrepancies.

The VALUE CALCULATOR analysis has also thrown up some strange results, as follows:

SKYLIGHT HUSTLE – 11/4
MINELLA DIAMOND – 10/3
DYSART DOLOMITE – 15/2
CASTERLY ROCK – 10/1
IT’S NOT HIS FAULT – 10/1
LOHENGRIN – 33/1
RONY HAS – 33/1
TOP COEUR – 33/1
MAX MERIDIUS – 45/1
READY FOR ROAD – 45/1
TAKE STOCK – 33/1
EYETRAP – 66/1
EMESTERAYE – 90/1
SNEDDY EDDIE – 135/1
RAVENDARK – 500/1
RECKLESS – 500/1
SOCK IT TO ME – 500/1
SOLDIERS LADY – 500/1
VENTUREVARGO – 500/1
WALK IN THE CLOUDS – 500/1
COUP D’ESSAI – 500/1
IT WILL DO RIGHTLY – 1000/1
ROAD TO THE SEA – 1000/1
WESTANDTOGETHER – 1000/1

Clearly the VC figure for RAVEDARK is massively out of kilter with his chances of winning, but I am not too perturbed by this or any of the other anomalies, as I feel that the suggested odds for most of the main protagonists are reasonable and we should not forget that we are looking for top finish candidates in our bet builders, rather than trying to identify the overall winner of the race.

If their odds hold up overnight, I will be keen to include MINELLA DIAMOND and IT’S NOT HIS FAULT in permed Bet Builders as they both appear to represent value at the top end of the market.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

My shortlist is as follows:

Likely top 5 finishers

CASTERLY ROCK
MINELLA DIAMOND
EYETRAP
DYSART DOLOMITE
SKYLIGHT HUSTLE

Likely top 10 finishers

RONY HAS
READY TO ROAD
TAKE STOCK
EMESTERAYE

Will provide my tissue odds this evening.

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

Great mind think alike (or fools never differ) as I was also considering perming bet builders to provide some level of insurance against the rogue performance.

Perhaps we should also “Dutch” the bet builders, based on the odds for each, which will give us different stakes for each line, but will ensure the same return for each bet?

MISS KINGSTON was a major surprise based on my analysis, but I now realise that she was ridden by a 7 lbs claimer, so perhaps she wasn’t the complete outsider that I took her for, based on her lower weight.

I think I need to experiment with adjusting my ratings for the shortlist based on weight to be carried.

Not sure whether my method of converting flat RPRs will work for you, but may be worth trying adding 35 to the flat rating to get a representative hurdle figure?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi Mike,

I totally agree, between us we are so close to finding the key to these races.

Just a thought and I know that this suggestion goes against all of your swashbuckling principles, but perhaps it would be worthwhile setting our target a little lower by placing our joint selections in bet builders using the maximum places available, at least until we have perfected our strategy.

Does anyone fancy tackling the Maiden Hurdle to be run at Fairyhouse (2.25) on Saturday – should provide a real challenge – 25 runners, plus 3 reserves?

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

The VALUE CALCULATOR analysis has produced the following tissue odds:

MUSIC OF LIFE – 9/4
JASMINE PEARL – 7/2
GANGSTER GRANNY – 11/2
DABOYA – 17/2
CROHAN LADY – 18/1
VICTORIA KESIA – 28/1
DANCING DAME – 28/1
FRONTIER ROSE – 55/1
MISS GEORGINA – 55/1
BALLINGURTEEN – 100/1
ANGELS HALO – 200/1
DICTIONARY CORNER – 200/1
LOST FEATURES – 200/1
LUCY ALPINE JANE – 200/1
MISS KINGSTON – 200/1

Indicative odds for the reserves are:

WALK IN THE CLOUDS – 100/1
DELL BOYS DIVA – 200/1
LEONARDS CHOICE – 200/1

Unfortunately, I will not be around much tomorrow, so it is likely that I will be able to post any suggested bets based on the alternative markets.

However, based on both my shortlist and the suggested value identified by the VC analysis, the two I would be keen to support are MUSIC OF LIFE (currently available @ 11/4) and GANGSTER GRANNY (currently available @ 8/1), whereas I would be very wary of both BALLINGURTEEN and MISS KINGSTON, who both appear to be significantly overestimated by their current odds.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Based on previous renewals of this Mares’ Maiden Hurdle, I have a rather lengthy shortlist of runners that have either already performed to the level required to achieve a top half finish, or have the potential to do so, as follows:

MUSIC OF LIFE (RPR 108 – hurdles)

DABOYA (RPR 108 – hurdles)

GANGSTER GRANNY (RPR – 93 hurdles, but flat RPR of 75 suggests she is capable of better over hurdles)

VICTORIA KESSIA (RPR 75 – flat, suggests may be capable of being competitive, if taking to hurdles)

JASMIN PEARL (RPR 101 – hurdles)

MOODY GIRL (RPR 101 – hurdles) – ran poorly at Tramore on Tuesday, so likely non runner in this race

CROHAN LADY (RPR 101 – INHF)

MISS GEORGINA (RPR 96 – hurdles)

DANCING DAME (RPR 94 – INHF)

FRONTIER ROSE (RPR 93 – INHF)

I have tried to place them in some sort of order based on their past achievements and would suggest that the top 5 are the most likely to trouble the judges at the finish.

I will return with the VALUE CALCULATOR tissue odds tomorrow evening.

All the best,

Rob.

[Robmull]

Hi folks,

Well that result just about sums up the current fortunes of the selection for this system.

MOODY GIRL was another one to weaken quickly as if something was wrong to finish a remote seventh of the 8 runners, despite the fact that on paper she had ticks in all the right boxes.

Rob.

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