[Mike]

Hi
Well obviously I have made an error somewhere as in the 12.55 whilst we were anticipating a big price and an each way extra on Only You Nora we were not expecting Ballinboe Blaze to be trading at 80-1. But that’s what the sheet tells us so we will take the following prices tonight and hope one of them steps up to the plate tomorrow.
12.55 Ballinboe Blaze @ 20-1 for 5 places
12.55 Only You Nora @ 19-1 for 5 places
In the first race we are in no hurry as Ad Caelum is currently drifting and is 7-1 in places and Rut Daniels is 25-1. In this instance we would be looking for a bet without Lady Rose Hackett or without both favourites dependent on the markets and non runners.

[Mike]

Hi Choncc
We are just sorting out an issue with Em’s account and we should be able to complete the “Valheim” line in the next hour or so.

[Mike]

Hi
We had another neither here nor there day today in our trail run with Fire Force placing 5th but the other two finishing only managing 9th and 10th.
However we have already done both of Thursdays races and subject to a drastic change in ground conditions we will put two selections up for each race at Clonmel that will probably start as favourites but such is life.
12.20 Lady Rose Hackett and Ad Caelum
12.55 Herbies Rover and Ballinboe Blaze
Assuming these will at the head of the market we will update our each way extra selections which are likely to be as follows
12.20 Rut Daniels
12.55 Only You Nora

[Mike]

Hi
We are working on the two Clonmel races for Thursday but in the meantime here are the best prices available for the 1.40 at Fairyhouse today.
Lea Lass drifting to 125-1 but available at 19-2 for 7 places
Scarlet Purse 50-1 but 11-1 for 6 places looks best
Fire Force 80-1 is another drifter but 19-2 for 7 is available

[Mike]

Hi
Thursday’s meeting at Clonmel looks favourite for a wager or two but there is no harm in trying the new sheet out tomorrow in the Fairyhouse race. Here we would be looking to back (for a price for a minimum of seven places) either or all of the following which are currently priced up in the standard market at the prices listed.
Lea Lass 100-1
Scarlet Purse 50-1
Fire Force at 66-1 (would be the third option).

[Mike]

Hi
Well that was a bit better and with Reina Del Mar finishing second it inspired me to check back on my previous results and in doing so we have found an error in the Excel program and have now adjusted it.
We will be looking to try this out on the first two races at Clonmel on Thursday if not the 1.40 at Fairyhouse tomorrow. This will all depend on how many runners are likely to go to post in each race and how many of the field have actually run under rules.

[Mike]

Hi
We already have a non runner in today’s race and I am not sure whether this his help or hinder our chances of producing a get out of jail free card for us after yesterdays bit of bad luck. We have taken the following prices but desperately need one of these to do well for us to continue with the new conversion table theory. We did feel we were a tad unlucky yesterday but you have to be practical with new ideas and know when to re-assess a situation.
Reina Del Mar @ 10-1
Huscari @ 19-2 for 7 places
Now if yesterday was anything to go by we have left the wager too long and missed the 8 places on offer last night for Huscari (so you know where that one will finish…lol) and having missed the 14-1 fourth place now looks booked for Reina Del Mar. The new ratings table hangs in the balance (but that is what makes it interesting).

[Mike]

Hi
The painful weekend has started and we had our first whitewash for a long time. 🙁 However it is a new idea and the bare results are not as bad as they first look. We Wanted Grey Fable for 6 places he came 8th we wanted Yarraman Makarrata for 8 places he came 9th and Wayside Lady who we also wanted for 8 places was in third place coming off the final bend before falling two out and would surely have come in had she not fallen.
To compound a bad day Harry’s Legacy went wrong early doors and pulled up after jumping only two fences so we will never know how he would have done.
With this in mind we will continue the idea and hope that either Reina Del Mar 14-1 or Huscari 66-1 can save our bacon tomorrow and keep the experiment alive. They are both unraced over hurdles but both show up quite well on our new speed rating conversion table. We will update the thread tomorrow as usual.

[Mike]

Hi
The painful weekend is looking more likely by the hour but these things do happen when you try new ideas out. Here are the best prices we could obtain bearing in mind there are limited markets available when you have such a short priced favourite.
Grey Fable @ 13-1 for 6 places
Yarraman Makarrata @ 12-1 for 8 places
Wayside Lady @ 14-1 for 8 places
This looks like a one horse race and Romeo Coolio is being backed off the boards with the money not just going on the horse to win but by how many lengths. Unfortunately although obviously the class horse in the race I could not bring myself to contemplate backing a horse yet to jump an obstacle in public at such short odds. The same applies to Harry’s Legacy but with 10-1 still on offer this morning an each way bet looks the way to go here. As we are always looking for options and whilst we were looking through the markets we noticed this little gem on
Betfair.
Grey Fable 16-1 E/W 3 places Betting without Romeo Coolio 6-1 E/W 3 places
Grey Fable 16-1 E/W 3 places Betting without Harrys Legacy 22-1 E/W 3 places
Is it me having a senior moment or am I dreaming….lol.
This applies through the card for some ridiculous prices and looks to good to be true especially if for any reason Romeo Coolio does come unstuck.

[Mike]

Hi
We had three from six last weekend which means we had a nice treble up and another win. However with no Golf or Rugby bets on offer this weekend and only myself and Sudsie doing the competition at present we have decided to give it a miss.
We will be back next week but will in the meantime be concentrating on our speed ratings and updating the databases which are proving to both problematic but profitable.

[Mike]

Hi
Well we had to push our luck and it will be an interesting race tomorrow. Obviously we think Romeo Coolio is too short in the market at 1-4 and will be looking for Harry’s Legacy to be supported in from the current 9-1 (bet365). Cutthewire is where he should be but Grey Fable @ 66-1, Yarraman Makarrata @ 100-1 and Wayside Lady @ 200-1 we believe are all overpriced and could all be backed in the extra markets.
Now this is the first time we have tried this new set of calculations on any depth and we will also be looking at the 1.40 at Cork on Sunday which is a really tricky race but in for a penny in for a pound.
Reina Del Mar
Meet My Loreley
Groovykindoflove
———-
Eve’s Hope
Midnight Eagle
Huscari
Kyle Valley
Vroomvroomboo
Blue Mosque
Aruntothequeen
We will update our wagers on tomorrows race in the morning (if not late tonight) as we will be playing these on the Betfair Exchange. Then it is just a case of awaiting Sundays race to be priced up before we go in again. Does anyone else think this is going to be an expensive weekend.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Nice to see the confidence flowing 🙂 I will start posting mine soon just waiting to see if anyone else joins in as I do like to make sure all the horses listed are used at least once. For anyone else thinking of joining in remember I do not place the entries until a few days before the competition starts so there will be time to alter your lines.

[Mike]

Hi
As we have been doing reasonably well of late we are going to add in another little calculation regarding the conversion of Flat, PTP and NHF times to Hurdle times. The reasoning should be apparent as because we are targeting Hurdle races a fair proportion of these are Maiden races which include either unraced horses or horse switching from one code to another which makes it nearly impossible to concoct a set of Tissue Odds.
We are looking at the 1.00 at Down Royal on Saturday to have a dabble and in particular will be expecting Harry’s Legacy to be well supported. Although ridiculously early to be forming markets our early indications would suggest that the following horses will head the market.
Harry’s Legacy
Cutthewire
Yarraman Makarrata
Grey Fable
Garrick Painter
Romeo Coolio
Should this be the case the interesting runner from our point of view would be Wayside Lady who if appearing at the bottom of the market, we could well be interested in. Please bear in mind we do not actually know which horses will even run on the day let alone the odds and going etc but it could be a very interesting experiment on the day.

[Mike]

Hi
I believe Clarence (Suds) and Mgame (G) will probably pick there own TTF lines this year but our resident Vikings Choncc and Emyr will be picking a competition line for the “Valheim” team so here are the lists if anyone else is having a punt. We are having a change of tactic this year and targeting the monthly prizes but there is everything to play for and you might get lucky.
It is simple enough pick one from the first 8 lines and two from line 9 (this ensures they do not all run against each other all season).
Line 1. Three Card Brag/Quai De Bourbon/Jango Baie/The Jukebox Man
Line 2. Jeraboam Machin/Sounds Victorious/Jalon Doudaries/Regents Stroll
Line 3. Constitution Hill/Lossiemouth/State Man
Line 4. Teahupoo/Strong Leader/Brighterdaysahead
Line 5. Majborough/Flooring Porter/Ballyburn
Line 6. Firefox/Sir Gino
Line 7. Grey Dawning/Gaelic Warrior/Jonbon
Line 8. Ginnys Destiny/Djelo/Dysart Enos/Burdett Road
Line 9. Il Est Francais/Fastorslow/Galopin Des Champs/Corbetts Cross/Fact To File/Gerri Colombe
Any lines we enter will not be entered until November 10th so we can allow for late non runners in the competition due to injuries etc.

[Mike]

Hi G
I have had worse days…lol. The database appears to be paying its way now and whichever way you went today you would have come out either +10.8 or +19.2 points up. The data base has sparked a bit of interest lately and I will re-post the core calculations again for those that missed them first time around. As for the Ten To Follow I have already organized a pool of horses ready for the competition and will post them some time this week.

[Author]

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