[Mike]

Hi
Not the grandstand finish we were looking for but as it is the last weekend of the Premiership we have been concentrating on the footy. Hence there will be a few blank days on this thread until the start of next week.:(

[Mike]

Hi Suds
It just us again but such is life. Here are the squeaky six. 🙂

Ospreys -15 to beat Dragons @ 10-11
OKC THunder +4 to beat DAL Mavericks @ 20-23
Xander Schauffle to win the PGA @ 12-5
Man City v West Ham BTTS @ 10-11
Arsenal v Everton BTTS @ 1-1
Man Utd to beat Brighton @ 2-1

The lottery ticket numbers will be 4,7,16,23,31 and 50 as usual

[Mike]

Hi
Unbelievably Jhentong Enki was also declared a non runner and that left us with just Futurm Regem who duly ran well but could only get fifth place we needed fourth which more or less sums the week up. 🙁
We are a tad puzzled where the Wexford meeting came from tomorrow and we were not prepared for it, but we will throw in a cheeky each way double as there will be no more racing for three or four days.
3.25 Shean Glory @ 7-1 for 4 places
4.00 Western Zara @ 4-1 for 5 places

[Mike]

Hi
Brave Fortune is now 1-1 favourite but we can now lay him to lose for 7 points @ 10-11 (you can only take the lay price that is offered which can be less than the market price) which means if he now wins we lose 6 points but will make our 10 points from backing him this morning so we still win +3 points. If he loses we win our 6.36 points on the lay bet we just placed but lose our 4 points where we backed him to win this morning and still make a 2.36 point profit (less any 5% commission that may be taken).
Now I hear the cry what happens if they both lose. God only knows my head exploded about two hours ago. 🙁
Only joking you have still backed both to lose so it does not really effect and the result of the race in reality becomes a non entity. But where’s the fun in watching the race is the real question. ? The fun part to me would be to get a safe position on Brave Fortune and leave part of the bet to run but that would defeat the point of the exercise I suppose. 🙁
But as experiments go this one was successful but you would have to be a really serious punter with nerves of steel, plenty of cash and huge kahunas to play this game every day (so count me out). 🙁
I will redo the maths and someone will be bound to correct me if I have it wrong but it looks good to me as when you place bets on the exchange it list all your liabilities on each horse for you. We have devised our own data base which we may add to this to show you how it works (eventually).

[Mike]

Hi
We have been keeping an eye on the markets and it appears we may have been lucky and got our position on the race correct. Brave Fortune is now favourite and Gaucher has drifted. With this in mind we now have backed Gaucher to win for 7 points @ 11-4 on the exchange.
This may seem ridiculous as we backed him to lose this morning but bear with us. If Gaucher now wins we would win 19.25 points minus the 15 we laid for him to lose this morning so we make a +4.25 point profit. If he loses we lose our 7 points but make a +3 point profit from our 10 point for him to lose. So its a win win situation on Gaucher either way. If he wins we get a 5% deduction (on winning bets) as a commission to betfair so that reduces our winnings to 18.29 minus the 15 points we laid against him so its now only a +3.29 profit.

[Mike]

Hi
We finally had a race today which suited us down to the ground it was the 6.10 at Kilbeggan and we started to place our bets. We had taken the position using our speed ratings etc that Brave Fortune would win the race and we had assumed that Gaucher the then 6-4 favourite was over priced.
Having taken that position we backed Brave Fortune @ 85-40 to win and laid Gaucher @ 4-6 to lose. Using the 10 point profit/loss target stake to avoid to many fractions this left us in this position.
If Brave Fortune 85-40 wins we win our target +10 points but if it loses we lose 4.71 points the amount we had to back to obtain our 10 point target 4.71 divided by 40 x 85 = +10
If Gaucher wins 4-6 we lose 15 points as we had to lay it we become the bookmaker and have to pay out the person who took the bet. So to make 10 points we had to take the shorter part of the odds so its 10 divided 4 x 6 = 15.
Now you can see the problem if Guacher wins we also lose our 4.71 points (the win bet on Brave Fortune) so our total loss on the race would be 15 + 4.71 = -19.71. However if Brave Fortune wins we also get our 10 points profit from laying Guacher to lose (as he will obviously have lost for Brave Fortune to have won). This means we now have a +20 profit if the result goes our way.
Should any other horse win the race we lose our 4.71 the win bet on Brave Fortune but gain 10 points from Gaucher losing so would still make a profit of + 5.21.
We are now left watching the markets to see if our pricing up of the race was correct. ?? We want Brave Fortune to shorten in price and Gaucher to drift out in price.

[Mike]

Hi
Well the idea of ending with a bang went south as Zulu Mike is a non runner but we  are determined with the NH racing winding down to have a bash today, so we are putting up  our next best in the 6.10.
Jhentong Enki 18-1 but at 15-2 betting without both Gaucher and Brave Fortune.

[Mike]

Hi
Obviously we decided to stick with just the two from last night which may have been a mistake, but such is life as there were a few decent each way extra prices around today.
Early arrival came second which means we more or less wiped our nose on the day but I will settle for that after yesterday.
We will be looking in depth at the 6.10 at Kilbeggan for our Ridiculous Ideas for 2024 thread but for now we will go with the following two.
6.10 Zulu Mike 50-1
6.45 Futurum Regem @ 14-1 for 4 places (16-1 for 3 places is available)

We will wait for the extra markets in the 6.10 before committing on Zulu Mike.

[Mike]

Hi
Well after the lord mayors show comes the dung cart and that was today. I have just seen Aussie Warrior turn the last bend in second and drop back through the field like a stone. This was closely followed by Dark Image fading into sixth place when we needed fifth. 🙁
As for tomorrow we will look at the following over at Clonmel
5.30 Mount Anglesby 9-1 looks the best each way shout but Ayiko 3-1 looks a bit useful.
7.00 Early Arrival @ 14-1 for 5 places
7.00 Boskill Borden 20-1
8.00 Answering @ 10-1 for 4 places
8.00 Dream Escape 40-1
The season has more or less restarted and the options are tricky now the ground has changed it brings out a whole new raft of runners. But we will try and figure some way of keeping the thread active and profitable. We will update the thread tomorrow but after Friday the racing dies off quite a bit and we would like to finish on a high.

[Mike]

Hi Suds
Thanks for giving it a try and would you believe this thread will have been running for about six months since you started it. 🙂 I will leave it up to you how you finish the last two weekends off. The Football, Rugby and NH racing season all wind up or run down at the same time in May and this leaves a huge void on the site.
This was great when I was working as I needed the time in the garden etc however I will be looking at other options off season so let me know if you are interested in continuing the rugby topic in some form or other.

[Mike]

Hi
There have been quite a few non runners which have profoundly effected the markets so here is a full update.
5.30 Burren Breeze (100-1) Now 33-1 we have taken 10-1 for 6 places
5.30 The Blaggard 100-1 Now 50-1 we have taken 23-2 for 7 places
5.30 Uhavemeinstitches 33-1 Non Runner
6.30 Aussie Warrior @ 33-1 We have gone with 20-1 betting without both Morepowertoya and Someone’s Wish
7.00 Dark Image @ 20-1 for 5 places

[Mike]

Hi
We are going to be looking to have a dabble with some of the following over at Tipperary tomorrow
5.30 Burren Breeze 100-1
5.30 The Blaggard 100-1
5.30 Uhavemeinstitches 33-1
The first race will be totally dependent on the extra markets as the favourite look the real deal on paper
6.30 Aussie Warrior @ 33-1
7.00 Dark Image @ 20-1 for 5 places
We could be tempted by Aussie Warrior at tonight’s price but would prefer to wait to see if we can bet without the favourite/s and will check back in the morning with an update.

[Mike]

Hi
Not to shabby a day today even if I even if I do say so myself
5.10 Safran Et Bleu 100-1 but we have taken 14-1 for 6 places Placed
5.40 One Big Boum 66-1 but we have gone 24-1 for 4 places Placed
6.10 Mercury Mission @ 20-1 for 5 places Placed
No big wins but a tidy little +8.60 point profit on the day makes Mike a happy boy 🙂
Also it’s a nice way to go into a days break as there is no Irish NH racing tomorrow so I get to play in the garden. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Another mixed bag of results and a lot of non runners today. Tic Tac Toe got the day to off a blinder grabbing 4th at 50-1 but as we had taken the extra price we only got the place on 33-1. By Your Side lost and Set Point got 5th we needed fourth again. 🙁
This means we ended up +1.60 on the day which is not great but better than a loss. 🙂
We head back to Killarney again tomorrow for the following which are all taken on tonight.
5.10 Safran Et Bleu 100-1 but we have taken 14-1 for 6 places
5.40 One Big Boum 66-1 but we have gone 24-1 for 4 places
6.10 Mercury Mission @ 20-1 for 5 places

[Mike]

Hi
Just a quick early heads up Tic Tac Toe and Set Point have started to move in price overnight and we have gone in at 33-1 with Tic Tac Toe and 10-1 with Set point for 4 places. This is not ideal as we would have liked an extra place or bet without the favourite/s last night. We have only decided to go in as after Jolie Jewel yesterday…. we feel lucky.  🙂

[Author]

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