[Mike]

Hi Rob
Nice to see we have found some common ground in what is a difficult task and once again although Defi De Seuil is probably the one to be on he is just to short in price for the type of place option bet I am targeting.
Vinndication was on my short list but I could not with any certainty know which race he would go for so not wishing to decimate my bets before the actual day I was swayed towards Kidisart as the logical selection due to the type of bet in use.
Thanks again for your input over the last few days as they have been testing for me to say the least but as of Tuesday’s turn of events it will give me more time to get stuck into the rest of the meeting and hopefully conclude phase one before taking on the handicaps.

Regards Mike

[Mike]

I will now move on to day three of the festival and try my luck on the opening fixture the JLT Novice Chase for which the stats for the race are limited as it has only been run under it’s current guise for the last eight years but here goes:
8/8 winners were aged 6 or 7
6/8 were in the top 3 in the betting
7/8 winners ran in the last 54 days
6/8 winners had won last time out
8/8 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
7/8 winners had at least 2 previous runs about the 2 1/2 mile mark
6/8 had at least 1 previous win on or about the 2 1/2 mile mark
8/8 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles
6/8 winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles
7/8 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs
7/8 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
7/8 winners were rated 145 or higher
6/8 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 or 2 race
8/8 winners had at least 2 runs that season
7/8 winners had at least 2 wins that season
The problem here is that a lot of the runners will also be declared for the RSA chase over the longer trip but this then could also be an opportunity using the non runner no bet option. The theory is that you cannot lose your stake but if the defections from this race go in your favour the price you have obtained now could be a gift by race day.
With that in mind I will out up Ben Pauling’s Kildisart as my selection which is currently showing at 16-1 nrnb with bet365 and looks sure to start the race unless my tipping curse strike’s again…lol.
Kildisart looks to be improving with every run certainly fits the profile is highly thought of at the yard looks a solid option for the type of bet being used and makes for a good first selection for bet number three.

[Mike]

This leaves me in a position to place my second ante post bet for the festival using the following runners all taken at the prices quoted at 1/4 odds non runner on bet.
Supreme Novice Hurdle Mister Fisher 11-1
OLBG Mares Hurdle Roksana 16-1
Ballymore Novice Hurdle City Island 10-1
RSA Chase Talkischeap 33-1
Champion Bumper Abracadras 25-1
This bet is again 10x 1 point each way doubles and a 1 point each way accumulator.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Not really that bad Rob Delta Work is I believe the real deal but just too short in price for the purpose of my betting startedgy (for what it is worth..lol) and On The Blind Side was on my short list. However it will be intersting to see what we come up with when the handicap races come under scrutiny when the weights are announced at the end of the month.

I have five selections in place for another wager but am not entirely happy with the price on my second choice Cilaos Emery in the Arkle so will bypass that one and move on to the next race which by bypassing the next two handicaps which brings me to the Champion Bumper.
Here are the statistics to kick the post off in what will be a tricky race to evaluate as this race will often spring a big surprise and its runners are always to follow next season.
11/12 winners were aged 5 or 6
12/12 winners had won last time out
11/12 had a previous win over the trip
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous flat runs
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous flat win
11/12 winners were rated 118 or higher
12/12 winners had at least 1 run and 1 win that season
Cheltenham form has no bearing on this race and the distance raced is obviously a standard so the majority of the runners will have done the trip.
I have a selection to put forward which I will take today as bet365 have now gone non runner no bet on all the races and are offering the biggest price by far on this selection which will be Abacadabras from the Gordon Elliot yard. This one won first time out and then ran out behind a running rail when well in contention behind Envoi Allen (who looks to be the yards main chance in the race).
However as mentiond throughout this thread I am looking for a each way option and I believe the yard will throw several runners at this race and although generally only available ante post at 12-1 with bet365 offering 25-1 this morning I would be a fool not to move on this one today under nrnb.

• This reply was modified 6 years, 11 months ago by Mike.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Well considering we sing from different hymn sheets the fact that we have still managed to come up with the same song on several occasions is no mean feat considering the amount of entries we are dealing with at this early stage.
So on I plod and now head for the RSA Chase and it does not get any easier.
As per usual I will start off with the statical analysis which is a follows:
10/12 winners were aged 7
12/12 winners had at least placed on their previous run before Cheltenham
11/12 winners had run was within 40 days
11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 3 miles
11/12 had at least 1 win over 3 miles
11/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
11/12 winners were rated 144 or higher
10/12 winners had previously won a grade 1-3 race
11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
12/12 had at least 1 win that season
Even though it is a chase race I have once again included previous hurdle form as it does seem to have a bearing on the outcome of the race.
I am going to take a long shot here and hope that Talkischeap who is still available at 33-1 nrnb will do me proud on the day. This one has been running with merit up against the likes of On The Blind Side and Le Bague Au Roi and is still coming along. He jumps well fits the bill nicely and if troubling the judge in the 888 next Saturday could well be a big ante post mover.

[Mike]

The next two races after the OLBG Mares Hurdle will be another handicap and the Amateur Riders race so I will bypass these two for the time being as they are too complicated to start on at present until the field sizes are reduced or the weights announced.
Thia means I will be heading over to day two of the festival and going straight onto the Ballymore Novice Hurdle for which the statical analysis is as follows:
12/12 winners were aged 5 or 6
9/12 winners ran within the last 60 days
9/12 winners won on their last run
12/12 winners placed on their previous run
11/12 winners had at least 1 win on or about the 2 1/2 mile mark
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
10/12 winners were rated 142 or higher
10/12 had at least 3 runs that season
12/12 had at least 1 win that season, 10/12 had at least 2 wins that season
Not having previously run or won at Cheltenham was a negative in this race and the favourites do not have a particularly strong record in this race. the last two points are probabaly due to the fact that this race traditionally has a large field of runners and resembles a cavalry charge at the start.
Brewin’upastorm had taken my fancy some time ago but I am unconvinced of his ability to travel at pace which is a definite requiremant here. So I have reluctantly discarded him and this has left me with two nice options the first was Beakstown who will get the trip and is a better horse when ridden up with a strong pace (as this race will be) and City Island an Irish raider who I have had my eye on for some time.
I will go with City Island 10-1 nrnb as it is difficult to fault the way he won last time out with any amount in hand and having previously beaten Dallas Des Picton who has gone onto to win his next two starts the form is as solid as it gets.

[Mike]

The next race on the card on the opening day at Cheltenham will be the Ultima Handicap and all the handicap races will be dealt with at the end of this thread when the weights have been announced which usually occurs on or about the last few days in February. Therefore I will tackle the OLBG Mares Hurdle next.
I will start with the stats as usual but these are not as accurate as they could be due to the fact the same horse Quevega won the race six times on the bounce.
8/11 winners were aged 5-7
10/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
9/11 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham
7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
5/11 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
10/11 winners had at least 2 previous about the 2 1/2 mile mark
10/11 had at least 1 previous win about the 2 1/2 mile mark
10/11 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles
9/11 had at least 3 wins over hurdles
9/11 winners had a rating of 150 or higher
8/11 winners had at least previous win in a Grade 1-3 race
Now this looks a daunting task with the likes of Apples Jade Laurina and Benie Des Dieux at the head of the market but with only the last named likely to turn up on the day striking a decent each way ante post bet should be more than possible.
Unless Benie Des Dieux either does not turn up or suffers a mishap it is difficult to see her being beaten but with Stormy Ireland being an unkown quantity and Lady Buttons still holding a Chase option at the festival I will take the 16-1 nrnb on Dan Skelton’s Roksana. This mare has improved with every run to date is a very lightly raced 7yo who was not disgraced behind Buveur D’Air last time out and may have have been laid out with this race in mind and hopefully the yard will have left a little bit up there sleeve for the big occasion.

[Mike]

I will now head back to the first race of the festival and re-list the statistics for the opening race The Supreme Novice Hurdle.
19 of the last 24 winners had run in the last 45 days.
19 of the last 22 winners had won last time out.
13 of the last 15 winners had run over hurdles at least 4 times previously.
15 of the last 17 winners were Irish trained runners.
13 of the last 14 winners were either 5 or 6yo’s.
No horse has ever won the race wearing headgear.
The most obvious difference with the statistical analysis of this race is that previous Cheltenham form is not a requisite.
I had originally been looking at Fakir D’Oudaries due to his Chelthenham form but had been concerned over the short ante post price and will now bearing the above stat in mind put forward Mister Fisher who is still available at 14-1 but the 11-1 nrnb still showing with some firms looks a nice price.
Mister Fisher is not the yards only runner as they have the ante post favourite in Angels Breath however trainer Nicky Henderson has implied on several occasions that there is not that much between them.
It would be fair to say he is not as fluent as some of his rivals but has been improving with every run and could do no more than beat what was in front of him in the Supreme trial and looks likely to come on again.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
It is a staking plan that works quite well with ante post as a non runner does not decimate the bet and targetting the place part of the bet still leaves the possibilty of a decent win payout should something go amiss with a short priced ante post favourite.
Obviously todays revelations over the equine flu could be one of the factors but lets hope that blows over sooner than later.
I do like the look of your suggestion over Leoncavallo as he fits the Key Race system that you know I am really keen on.
I will continue with this thread as soon as I can get around the hacking issue.

[Mike]

Having re-checked the possibilities available and bearing in mind I am primarily looking at place options bet365 at non runner no bet 1/4 odds on all the above selections would look the obvious choice.
Therefore for this thread I am putting up a the following as my first Cheltenahm accumulator using the following prices as listed in todays lunchtime markets.
Champion Hurdle Sharjah 9-1
Champion Chase Sceau Royal 14-1
Ryanair Chase Aso 16-1
Stayers Hurdle Bapaume 20-1
Gold Cup Might Bite 14-1
I am suggesting 10x 1 point each way doubles and 1 point each way accumulator which means that should any two of the above get placed you would recieve the majority of your outlay back (if not make a small return) dependent on the price of the placed horses.
However should more than two get placed you are already into a decent profit and for the curious dreamers such as myself should all five just get placed the total return would be +1974.38 points. I am talking place options here as this is most likely the best case scenario but for those wishing to check out the win options there is a link to a good bet return calculator in the Reference & Help section listed at the top of the main page under the sub heading of Useful Links.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
This is a long term project which I started last year when I was with OLBG Ireland and as I got lucky there by getting a couple of big priced winners home I have been itching to see if I could get lightning to strike twice..lol. There is a link to the post motrtem page of the old thread here: https://olbg.ie/forum/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=5421&start=60
I am hoping this thread will actuate some wagers on some of the pre cheltenham races that involve those already declared and for sure will be time consuming but hopefully worth it.
The secondary factor is that it will hopefully showcase the Speed Ratings and Key Race articles along the way. There will also be the opportunity to link this thread to some of your systems especially when we get a bit nearer the off and hopefully it should make compelling reading when we get to compare our results on the day.

[Mike]

Hi Rob
Thanks for that it was always going to be tricky as there can be upward of twenty 100-1 shots a day and my biggest problem is that I get overconfident. Hence with Diamond Kut picking up another nice little profit I am putting up a 230-1 double tomorrow involving Crimson Chief 10-1 in the 1.35 at Tramore and Ballon Onabudget 20-1 in the 4.45 at the same meeting.
The idea of using two horses is cheating to a degree but these are put up as an each way double so could bring that elusive (near impossible) 100 point + return but has the possibility of bringing home a return if both get placed.
Update: Now I will confess this is becoming frustrating Crimson Chief was beaten by a head and with Ballon Onabudget winning relatively easily the 230-1 bet was a whisker away.
In theory I should be happy as the bet produced a cracking 13 point profit for the thread and takes us into a very healthy profit of over 25 points…but…lol.

• This reply was modified 7 years, 3 months ago by Mike.

[Mike]

Well another profit on the day with Allora Yeats not only getting the desired place but also getting third place which now means that if not only had done the selections as highlighted would you have made a profit but also if you had backed the selections as normal each way bets you would still be well ahead of the game.
As it stands we are still over 10 points up which means we can have a punt at the football tonight and look for one of those face value 100-1 shots and I will go in the France Germany game with Paul Pogba to be booked + most goals second half + more than three corners second half (both teams combined) and France to win from behind.

Update: France have come from behind there have been more goals in the second half than the first and there have been more than three corners in the second half. Unfortunately the ref was a tad leniant on Pogba (alright I am biased) but it was a close call.

• This reply was modified 7 years, 3 months ago by Mike.

[Mike]

I have a couple of interesting shouts for the 100-1 thread today both running at Punchestown the first is called Rince Deireanach who runs in the 2.05 he is available at 33-1 betting without Elysian Plains and Smiling Eliza or as a safer option 22-1 for 8 places.
The second selection is called Allora Yeats and runs in the 3.10 is available at 28-1 betting without My Sister Sarah or once again the safer option of 25-1 for 5 places. Although for the purpose of the thread we have been using the each way extra place market and will continue to do so there is another intersting bet which is using the betting without the favourite/s option but also considering a cheeky each way double which could be also be a money spinner if you can get one home.

[Mike]

Well I made someone happy today…lol.. when my 100-1 shot on the Bournmouth match did not come off but it was not a disaster with 3 goals 6 cards and 7 corners plus an end to end game which could have gone either way. However maybe I should in future be a little less optimistic when trying these bets out but in my defense as stated when I placed the bet the idea was to show the potential of the bet and to have some fun along the way.
As for the more serious side of the idea the 100-1 shot Strong Current that was taken at 40-1 for 7 places using ‘The Each way Extra Market’ got placed for a small return of 7 points and after taking out the Bournmouth bet out leaves us with a small profit on the day which will help to start the thread off.

[Author]

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