[Mike]

Hi
I have now done a first post mortem of both Joe’s and my first attempts and what has become glaringly obvious is that s the lack of ability to put one in the back of net that has thwarted most of our bets.
Here are my last five attempts using the new stats based selections.
Fulham v Aston Villa (30+ booking points + Over 1.5 goals + Mitrovic 1+ shot on target) @ 10-11 Won
Nottingham Forest v Liverpool game @ 8-11 Lost
Over 0 cards for Nottingham Forest
Over 1 goal for Liverpool
Over 4 corners for Liverpool
Man City to win with over 2 goals in the match @ 7-10  Won
Everton V Crystal Palace @ 5-6 Lost
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton
Chelsea v Man United @ 4-7 Won
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea
As you can see every part of my bets came in except the highlighted parts which were all goals that never materialised. 🙁
As previously mentioned in a recent post the other problem is the amount of bets required to get a decent return and the type of bet that the bookmaker will accept in mulitples.
I have a possible solution which I wiil attepmt to explain a bit later as I am working on the maths as we speak. Unfortunately it will mean increasing our intial stake and taking the slow burn approach and even splitting the bet as we go but trying to pull off a dream bet is a tricky thing which very few people are even silly enough to try (but I love a challenge)…lol.

[Mike]

Hi
It looks like the list of horses for this seasons NH ‘Ten To Follow‘ will be availble by the end of next week so if anybody is interested in joining in please let me know. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Here is an update of last nights selections

1.45 Cloudy Fountain 100-1 but taken at 22-1 for 9 places
1.50 Wasini Island 66-1 but taken at 17-1 for 9 places
3.35 Siberian Star 33-1 Bet void horse now a non runner
4.10 Whiskywealth @ 20-1 for 4 places
4.45 Masterstonemason  @ 33-1 Best price for 4 places 25-1 taken

Both the each way extra bets have options at 29-1 and 21-1 respectively for 8 places but the betting has been suspended at present, I am assuming due to the possiblity of late non runners.

[Mike]

Hi
We did manage another return yesterday as we had two of the football bets up along with Bella Scintella but at short prices we still would have still not quite have broken even. With the lottery numbers not getting any returns we are “beating the lotto” but I do not count this as a result until we also get into a profit.
There are signs of encouragement as we have now had a return (a treble) up on two of the last three weeks,  so there might yet be a light at the end of the tunnel (lets hope it is not a train coming the other way).  🙂

[Mike]

Hi
We had a treble up with the Man City v Brighton and Chelsea v Man United football bets winning along with Bella Scintilla but it was not enough to overcome the lost wagers which puts us right back at square one again.
Also as suspected /predicted of the 12 football bets I have had over the last week only 6 won which along with all of Joe’s puts both of us slightly better than average but no where nearer to achieving any sort of result.
Had we done them all as singles we would have neither been up or down profit wise and leaves me pondering our next move. It ws always going to be a tricky thing to try but we will persevere.
The best % strike we have achieved has been the lastest statistic based bets so we will try to start another slow burn accumulator off tomorrow in the Aston Villa v Brentford game.
Aston Villa to have 10+ booking points plus Ivan Toney to have 1+ shot on target and Brentford to have 3+ corner kicks which comes out @ 5-2

[Mike]

Hi
We will be heading over to Limerick tomorrow for the following options

1.45 Cloudy Fountain 100-1 (but awaiting each way extra price)
1.50 Wasini Island 50-1 but @ 17-1 for 9 places and 21-1 for 8 places
3.35 Siberian Prince  33-1 @ for 5 places
4.10 Whiskywealth 20-1 @ for 4 places
4.45 Masterstonemason 33-1 (but awaiting extra place options)

[Mike]

Hi
With Brighton getting the required cards and Liverpool getting the requred corners the one factor I had not factored in was Liverpool not scoring 🙁
But this has given me an option on linking this thread with the Beat The Lotto (£) thread and mixing up the late kick offs listed above with the horses listed on the thread mentioned.

The one fixture we had not filled in was the Man City v Brighton match for which we will go with the following.

Man City to win with over 2 goals in the match @ 7-10
Everton V Crystal Palace @ 5-6
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton
Chelsea v Man United @ 4-7
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea
2.40 Cheltenham Bella Scintilla @ 11-10 bettng without Pied Piper and Knight Salute
3.20 Doncaster Hispanic @ 5-4 betting without Aesop’s Fable and Bresson
3.15 Cheltenham Editeur De Guye @ 6-4 betting without Clear Runway and Dads Lad
As we have to start all over again we will pick these up in trebles back at the base stakes to see if we can get another bet started. ?

[Mike]

Hi
We have an interesting option on this thread using selections from the new thread Joe’s dream punt 🙂

2.40 Cheltenham Bella Scintilla @ 11-10 bettng without Pied Piper and Knight Salute
3.20 Doncaster Hispanic @ 5-4 betting without Aesop’s Fable and Bresson
3.15 Cheltenham Editeur De Guye @ 6-4 betting without Clear Runway and Dads Lad

These will be used with the three late Premiership games today as listed on the new thread.
Man City to win with over 2 goals in the match @ 7-10
Everton V Crystal Palace @ 5-6
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton
Chelsea v Man United @ 4-7
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea

These are being used in the usual win trebles and win accumulator the old lottery numbers will be used and the ticket has been purchased.

[Mike]

Hi
I will pop this idea down now before the kick off in the lunchtime game. I am starting to like the new idea but will am not sure which way to go wth the bet/s. Here are the suggested punts for today.
Nottingham Forest v Liverpool
Over 0 cards for Nottingham Forest
Over 1 goal for Liverpool
Over 4 corners for Liverpool
Bet already placed but I will use our reclaimed stake to go in again at the now 20-23 odds on offer to try and start off a new line.
Everton V Crystal Palace
Over 0 cards for Everton
Over 1 goal for Crystal Palace
Over 2 corners for Everton

This bet comes out @ 5-6 but looks a reasonable shout unless someone tells me otherwise. ??

Chelsea v Man United
Over 0 cards for Man United
Over 1 goal in the match
Over 3 corners for Chelsea

The odds on this game are short @ 4-7 but the idea is to try and keep the lines going as the fun comes later as the stakes build up.

I will be looking at the Man City v Brighton game later and will update the thread after the first result is known and we can then plot a course for the above bets. ?

 

[Mike]

Hi
For our next trick we will try the following bet in the Nottingham Forest  v Liverpool game @ 8-11
Over 0 cards for Nottingham Forest
Over 1 goal for Liverpool
Over 4 corners for Liverpool
As this is a lunchtime kick off and assuming the bet comes off we will be looking to go straight back in for the Chelsea v Man United game later in the day. This time will be looking for Chelsea Corners, Man United bookings and a goal in the game.

[Mike]

Hi Joe
I was waiting for a price betting without the favourite and missed it. 🙁 Of course the only one that beat him home was the bloody favourite…lol.
I have nothing for tomorrow so will swing back into the football and see if I cannot get something going on this new bet. ?

[Mike]

Hi
We cannot get a bet without the favourite at present so will try a long shot each way treble at Sligo using the following selections.

3.35 Let Her Flow @ 28-1 for 5 places
4.45 Nuttoridge @ 25-1 for 5 places
5.20 Tomas O Maille @ 22-1

[Mike]

Hi
Now that was a lot easier as the bet was home and hosed with over twenty minutes still to play. However you would not have been able to have put that bet into a ten fold accumulator as it would have been limited by most bookmakers to trebles.
We will try and prove this was no fluke by trying it again in the Nottingham Forest v Liverpool game which is another for which both teams have statistics we can factor in.
We now have a profit of +4.55 points to use on the next game as we have taken our original stake back out so the next bet is an all or nothing to see if we cannot get a slow burn accumulator started.
The factors to use on this game are that Forest concede goals and collect cards for fun. Liverpool score goals and force corners at will. 🙂

[Mike]

Hi
Pulsating did us proud by bringing both of the each way extra bets in and with Ucandoit placing third we had a nice day at the office and finished on very decent looking +11.6 point profit on the day.  🙂
We have an old friend running tomorrow in Thomas O’Maille who goes in the lucky last at Sligo. We will hold fire on betting on him unless he shortens from the 25-1 currently on offer as I would not mind a bet without the favourite/s if possible.

[Mike]

Hi
As you will have noticed exactly the same situation is occuring in that in each 10 fold bet placed, Joe will do just above average in getting 5 selections in. This corresponds with the previous few bets bearing in mind the average is approx 4.5 bets in every 10 at approximate odds of 1-1.
The reason behind this I believe is that you can only bet an accumulator of above three selections as trebles unless you use the sites pre set bets. If you attempt to use ie bet builders you will be restricted to trebles or less in some cases.
So tonight we will use a bet of our own to see what would happen, only we will revert to a higher 5 point stake with a view to doubling up on our next bet.
Fulham v Aston Villa (30+ booking points + Over 1.5 goals + Mitrovic 1+ shot on target) @ 10-11

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